Two Player Quotes

I just finished watching the post-game, locker-room interviews on redskins.com TV. All the players said the right things, but two stood out.

Chris Cooley was asked by Sonny Jurgenson what he learned this year. Cooley: "Losing sucks. That's what I learned."

Cooley's 52-yard catch over the middle set up Moss's TD catch and got the Redskins back in the game. I can't wait to see this guy play next year.

Sam Huff asked LaVar Arrington if he wanted to come back as a Redskin. LaVar: "Heck yeah. I don't want to say profanity on TV. I want to be here 100%. It's where my heart is. I get on my knees every night and hope and pray it works out. I love everything about being in Washington. I said some things I shouldn't have and I regret it, but I love being a Redskin through and through. I don't want to go anywhere else. We have resolve...This is the greatest building block since I've been here and I just hope I'm part of the next step."

When you consider that NFL films caught LaVar in pre-game warmups in Philly and Tampa Bay saying "It's a great day to be a Redskin," you have to wonder if they can't work something out for next year. He might not be the most disciplined linebacker in the league, but he makes big plays.

The Riddells got to Popping

I interrupt whatever cogent thinking on yesterday’s game that I could muster for this visceral, belly laugh. Marcus Washington is one of my favorite players. He brings great enthusism and skill to the Redskins D. I don't think anyone was happier than Marcus when Gruden called for a two-point conversion in the Nov. 13 game at Tampa Bay. Here he describes the defense's style of play:

"Everyone keeps asking me about Shaun Alexander, like he's Superman, but I don't know. When you play against us, you're going to get hit. Even the games we lost, we won the physical part of it," Washington said. "If they're going to rely on a running back to beat us, I like those odds. We shut Tiki [Barber] down [Dec. 24]. He didn't do much against us. The MVP comes out today, the Riddells got to popping. . . . "

Riddell is the maker of the helmets and most of the pads worn in the NFL and amateur football leagues.

Too....Depressed.....to......Comment......

Just kidding.

The Skins gave us a great season. I want to take some time to write something cogent, so I'm only going to write one initial thought.

First blush: This is a team sport and they win and lose as a team, but the outcome is reversed if rookie Carlos Rogers holds on to that interception in the second quarter with the Redskins leading 3 - 0. That is not criticism of Rogers. I am simply pointing out one play that would have resulted in a fourteen-point swing. That is how close the Skins came to winning. I'm sure the Seahawks fans could point to several they wish they could have had.

I am very happy with this season as a Redskins' fan. I am certainly going to re-up on the season tickets next year. As long as Joe Gibbs is on the sidelines, the Redskins will be fine.

HTTR

Was it Over When the Germans Bombed Pearl Harbor?

In August of 1990, during the buildup to Operation Desert Storm under Bush 41, the New York Times ran a front-page article in a Sunday edition describing the power of the Iraqi military. The gist of the piece was that the Iraqis had a superb military, especially its elite Republican Guard; it was the fifth most-powerful military in the world. The Times warned that President Bush was underestimating his enemy and that victory would not come easily, especially in an unfamiliar environment like the desert. And the Times warned that, unlike the US, the Iraqi military was recently battle tested in its war with Iran. The Times was stating what every major main stream publication was stating at the time.

What does this have to do with this weekend’s playoff game? Well, every main stream publication is saying that the Seahawks are a superb team that is battle tested and they cannot be beaten by another NFC team in the unfamiliar territory of Seattle. Clearly, the New York Times overestimated the battle test that the Iranians presented to the Iraqis. And every mainstream media source is overestimating the battles that the Seahawks have surmounted.

Here’s what everyone says about the Seahawks: They have always had a potent offense and have added an excellent defense this year. Shaun Alexander is the best running back in the NFL and deserved his MVP trophy. Hasselbeck has matured immensely in just one season and now pays attention when coach Holmgren talks to him. Holmgren is focused on activity on the field now that he has given up the general manager’s job. They cannot lose on their home turf; rainy Seattle is an unfamiliar environment for visiting teams. Oh, and their loss to the Redskins this year was their wake up call, and they are a different team since then and have won eleven in a row (er, their season-ending loss to the Packers is a little inconvenient to the media story line of “Eleven in a Row,” so ignore that one).

Stomping on the Weak
Here are the facts: Like the Iraqis who battled a pushover military like Iran’s, the Seahawks played the easiest schedule in the NFL this year. Their opponents’ average winning percentage was only 0.421, which was 32nd out of 32 NFL teams, but averages only tell part of the story. When the Seahawks played good teams they were very average. When they played bad ones, they were the US Marines stomping on the Republican Guard.

The Seahawks played six games against teams in their division, which was the worst division in football. It is the only division in the NFL that had three teams with a double-digit number of losses. Their division opponents had a combined record of 15 – 33.

But wait, there’s more, as they say on late-night infomercials. The Seahawks got to play two more powerhouses this year in the Titans and Texans. Add the Texans and Titans 6 – 26 record to Seattle’s division opponents’ record and you find that the Seahawks played half of their schedule—EIGHT games—against teams with a combined record of 21 – 59. That, ladies and gentlemen, is a 0.263 winning percentage. Pathetic.

DID YOU GET THAT? Playing against teams with a combined twenty-one wins and fifty-nine losses is like the University of Texas playing Princeton. If the Seahawks didn’t win ALL of those games, they wouldn’t belong in the NFL. Toss those wins out and they are 5 -3. Oh, did I mention that one of the three losses was to the Redskins? Oh, and did I mention that one of the wins was against the Colts’ second- and third-stringers at the end of the season?

Neither the Colts nor the Seahawks had any reason to keep their starters on the field for that game, but the Seahawks did. I guess coach Holmgren was trying to prove that his team could beat a bunch of guys who were wearing the uniform worn by a winning team because beating the guys in the Colts uniforms that day did not prove anything else. Take away the Colts win and they are just about a 0.500 team.

The media is correct about one thing: Shaun Alexander is the key to their offense. So let’s see how the MVP played this year. For the season, the MVP had an amazing twenty-eight touchdowns and 1880 yards. Against the eight pushovers, he was Superman. Against those eight, he earned 1133 of his yards and nineteen of his touchdowns. Let’s add the monster game he had against the Colts’ backups just for fun. Including the Colts game, Alexander got 1272 yards and twenty-two touchdowns. So, in the nine games against the weak, Alexander averaged 141.33 yards and 2.4 TDs per game.

But that only makes him Clark Kent against good teams. In the seven games against good teams, Alexander averaged 86.86 yards and 0.857 TDs per game. That is a huge difference. Oh, yeah; against the Redskins he only got 98 yards and one touchdown and that was only after Sean Taylor left the game with an injury in the second half. In the first half of the Redskins game, the Seahawks total production on offense was 75 yards and three points.

I’m not reaching here folks. There is a clear dichotomy in the Seahawks schedule and it tells the whole story. If you toss out their win against the Colts and their loss against the Packers at the end of the year when the number-one seeds were locked up, the Seahawks had a 12 – 2 record this year. But, if you only look at their record against winning teams in those fourteen games, the Seahawks were 2 – 2. Both wins—against the Cowboys and Giants in Seattle—were decided by three-points.

Everyone in New Jersey knows why the Giants lost their game to the Seahawks (remember Shockey’s premature celebration? Click for video), but few remember that it took a last-second miracle for the Seahawks to beat the Cowboys. With less than a minute to play, Seattle tied the score at 10-10 on a Hasselbeck TD pass. Then, with five seconds left, Drew Bledsoe threw an interception and Seattle kicked a 50 yard field goal. Oh, and against playoff teams in those fourteen games, their record is 1 – 2 this year with their sole win coming against the 0 for 3 New Jersey Feelys.



It is an old adage that defense, the running game, and special teams win championships. So how did Seattle’s juggernaut offense manage to do against top-ten defenses? The team was 3 – 3 against top-ten defenses. Those three wins are made up of the win against the Cowboys and two wins against the Cardinals, which only had a top-ten defense because they were so bad that teams didn’t have to throw the football against them. Take away the Cardinals wins and the Green Bay loss and they were 1 – 2 against top-ten Ds. The Skins have a top-ten defense.

Hasselbeck had the best QB rating in the NFC at 98.2 with 24 TDs and only 9 INTs. But, in six games against top-ten defenses, Hasselbeck had a QB rating of 82.34 with 5 TDS and 4 INTs. So, he inflated his statistics against the weak in the schedule and was very average against the average to good. He averaged a 108.33 QB rating against the bottom-22 defenses with 1.9 TDs and 0.5 INTs per game, but against top-ten defenses he averaged 0.833 TDS and 0.67 INTs per game.

So, the Seahawks are an average team, at best, when they play good teams, and they are a bully when they play bad ones. It is lucky for them that they only played four games against teams with a winning record this year (not counting the second-string Colts who were 1-1).

The quotes from the players in Seattle this week generally allude to this: They think they are a much better team since they lost to the Redskins in October and they think the Redskins are the same team, maybe worse. They think the gaudy numbers they put up in eight games while beating up on teams with a 0.263 winning percentage, or the second-string colts, are legitimate. They think their gift-wrapped wins over the Cowboys and Giants proved they could beat teams with winning records. They are delusional.

The Redskins are Too Beat Up?
There is a theory that the Redskins are too beat up to stay with the Seahawks. For some reason the theorists have ignored that the Seahawks lost three of their four starters in their secondary for significant amounts of time over the last five games. Also, the Redskins get Shawn Springs back this week after he missed last week’s playoff game. With the health of Salave’a, Arrington, and Taylor, who all missed significant amounts of time in the win over Seattle in October, and with Griffin, Springs and Daniels back to health, the Skins are not as banged up as everyone believes. And, Portis would have played more in the second half against the Bucs if the Skins needed him.

The Skins’ Offense is Dead?
The offense that put up 101 points on its three NFC East opponents within the past four weeks is dead? Why? Because it took a fourteen-point lead in the first quarter against the best defense in the NFL and decided to play it conservatively the rest of the way? Correct me if I’m wrong. They won the game, didn’t they? So…it worked…right?

The Seahawks are on a Roll?
Sure, they beat up bad teams eleven straight times since the Redskins beat them (don’t look at the Green bay loss behind the curtain). But, the Redskins have now played what are essentially six straight playoff games and won them all including two wins against teams that were in the playoffs and another against a team that wasn’t eliminated until 7:30 pm on the last day of the season. Aren’t the Redskins on a roll?

The Seahawks are Great at Home?
There is this theory that the Seahawks cannot lose at home because of crowd noise and weather and the Hawks just play better there. If all one looked at was the winning record, who could argue? They were 8 – 0 at home. But, then when you dig a little deeper you realize that damn quality-of-opponent thing pops up again. The only good teams they played at home were the Cowboys and the Giants and both of those teams handed the game to the Seahawks.

There is also the loud/unfamiliar/rain-soaked territory argument. Well, if it’s unfamiliar to one of the two quarterbacks, that quarterback would be Hasselbeck. Matt Hasselbeck has a 103 rating on the road, but a 93.9 rating at home. Mark Brunell took the University of Washington Huskies to four bowl games in his four years in Washington and won the National Championship in 1991. Shawn Springs and Philip Daniels, two important starters on the Skins’ top-ten defense, began their careers in Seattle and did very well there. And, loud? You don’t think it was loud in Tampa Bay last week?

9.5 points?
Look, the Seahawks have an excellent record, but they didn’t earn it. They are 1 - 2 against playoff caliber teams this year and, more than any other team, they inflated their statistics against the bad teams. They only played four games against teams with a winning record and the bad-record teams they played were truly the weakest in the league. The only rationale for a 9.5 point spread in this game is Paul Allen must have put half of his $21-billion net worth on the Hawks and moved the needle.

It’s the Coaching Stupid
This game is a toss up, and only because the Skins had to fly 3000 miles to get there. If they played in DC, the Skins win. If their starters stay in the game, the Skins win. The bottom line is, Holmgren and his crew are going to have to out-coach Gibbs and Williams to win, and I wouldn’t bet on that. Gibbs is 17 - 5 in the playoffs; Holmgren is 9 - 8. There also is the little matter that Gibbs’ team has improved its performance every time it got a second bite at the apple this year.

This reminds me of 1990 when everyone loved Buddy Ryan as coach of the Eagles despite the fact that he couldn’t win a playoff game. Gibbs beat Ryan almost all the time in the regular season. Well, the Redskins went to Philadelphia to play the Eagles in the playoffs for the first time in Gibbs’ tenure as coach of the Skins. The Eagles were favored by about a touchdown. Everyone thought the Eagles would win. When the Skins won 20 – 6, the Eagles promptly fired Buddy Ryan.

Ryan couldn’t beat Gibbs and Ryan was removed; Hussein’s military was 0 for 2 against US forces and Hussein was removed; and Gibbs has never lost to a Holmgren-coached team. Holmgren has never won a playoff game with the Seahawks; he is 0 for 3. He’d better coach the game of his life or find a spider hole to hide in until minicamp.

9.5 Point Underdogs!!! Could Someone Close to the Team Please Confirm Here that the Redskins Got on Their Scheduled Flight to Seattle Today?

Why should they? Not only is everyone saying Seattle will win on Saturday, they say it is a lock that the Seahawks are going to cover that spread. I just hope the Redskins board the plane if only to give their fans one last chance to salute their great effort before the season ends on saturday night.

Here's one indication that the Redskins don't have a chance. While most pundits said Seattle will win convincingly, yesterday's five-minute piece on the Seattle game on ESPN's NFL Live had an interesting twist. NFL Live is a fifteen minute show without commercials. So, yesterday's NFL Live spent five of their fifteen minutes on the game and not once was the word "Redskins" spoken by anyone.

Ironically, ESPN opened by stating that Seattle is getting no respect, and then it proceeded to completely disrespect the Redskins by ignoring them. The only allusion to the Skins in the first 4:50 came at the beginning of the piece when Sean Alexander gave an excuse for why the Seahawks "lost to 'them'" and why the Seahawks are now a different team because they have since won eleven in a row. He laughed as he said "we won eleven in a row" in the way one says: "Of course we're different now, we're the best team in the NFC, and that's why we're going to stomp on the Skins."

ESPN ended with "Washington at Seattle this Saturday at 4:30." Could someone please confirm that Washington will actually bother going to Seattle?

Tomorrow, I will publish Counter Trey's preview of the game in which Seattle plays the team-that-is-not-Seattle.

Redskins 17 – Bucs 10: It Wasn’t a Blow Out; So Sue Me

But you thought it was going to be a blowout after the Bucs’ first three possessions, didn’t you? Of course you did. Everyone did.

In the Bucs’ first possession, the Redskins’ Demetric Evans sacked Simms on third-and-long and forced a punt. In the Bucs’ second drive, LaVar Arrington intercepted Simms and returned the ball to the six-yard line. Clinton Portis pounded over the goal line from there on the next play. In the Bucs’ third possession, Sean Taylor made a great athletic play picking up Carnell "Hyundai" Williams’ fumble, which was forced by Marcus Washington, and Taylor took it to the house: Redskins 14-Bucs 0; the game was over before the first quarter was over.

So, why didn’t it end in a blowout? Simple: both of the guys who scored in that first quarter missed most of the second half. Otherwise, it wouldn’t have been close.

There Must Have Been a Second Spitter
Is it me, or has everything that can happen in life been portrayed in Seinfeld? Was Roger McDowell in Tampa?

Sean Taylor, the Redskins’ safety whom Gregg Williams said was the best athlete he has ever coached—and he’s coached some great ones in Kearse, Arrington, etc.—missed the second half of the game for allegedly spitting at Michael Pittman. I didn’t see any spit, and Taylor denies doing it, but it is hard to believe that the Ref would throw Taylor out of the game unless he was sure. On the other hand, Taylor was fined $17,000 for the spit, but earlier in the year he was fined $20,000 for wearing different colored socks from the rest of the team. If the league was sure, wouldn’t they levy a bigger fine than one for a uniform violation? There must have been a second spitter.

NEWMAN: June 14, 1987.... Mets Phillies. We're enjoying a beautiful afternoon in the right field stands when a crucial Hernandez error (leads) to a five run Phillies ninth. Cost the Mets the game.

KRAMER: Our day was ruined. There was a lot of people, you know, they were waiting by the player's parking lot. Now we're coming down the ramp ... [cut to film of the day - like the Zabruter (sic) film - with the Umbrella man and everything]... Newman was in front of me. Keith was coming toward us, as he passes Newman turns and says, "Nice game pretty boy." Keith continued past us up the ramp.

NEWMAN: A second later, something happened that changed us in a deep and profound way that day forward.

ELAINE: What was it?

KRAMER: He spit on us.... and I screamed out, "I'm hit!"

NEWMAN: Then I turned and the spit ricochet of him and it hit me.

ELAINE: Wow! What a story.

JERRY: Unfortunately the immutable laws of physics contradict the whole premise of your account. Allow me to reconstruct this if I may for Miss Benes as I've heard this story a number of times.

JERRY: Newman, Kramer, if you'll indulge me. According to your story Keith passes you and starts walking up the ramp then you say you were struck on the right temple. The spit then proceeds to ricochet off the temple striking Newman between the third and forth rib. The spit then cam off the rib turned and hit Newman in the right wrist causing him to drop his baseball cap. The spit then splashed off the wrist, Pauses In mid air mind you- makes a left turn and lands on Newman's left thigh. That is one magic luggie…

NEWMAN: Well that's the way it happened.

JERRY: What happened to your head when you got hit?

KRAMER: Well. Uh, well my head went back and to the left

JERRY: Again

KRAMER: Back and to the left

JERRY: Back and to the left Back and to the left

ELAINE: So, what are you saying?

JERRY: I am saying that the spit could not have come from behind ... that there had to have been a second spitter behind the bushes on the gravelly road. If the spitter was behind you as you claimed that would have caused your head to pitch forward.

ELAINE: So the spit could have only come from the front and to the right.

JERRY: But that is not what they would have you believe.

NEWMAN: I'm leavin'. Jerry's a nut. [Exits]

KRAMER: Wait, wait, [Exits]

JERRY: The sad thing is we may never know the real truth.

In the second half, all of the Bucs’ receivers who had alligator arms in the first half suddenly were extending for receptions. Simms suddenly began throwing the ball deep. And the Bucs gave a few Redskins fans heart attacks. Of course, none of that would have happened had Taylor been in there in the second half because none of it happened when he was in there in the first half.

Sack Simms to Win
Chris Simms is now 0 – 5 in games when he is sacked three or more times.

It’s Griffin, Taylor and Salave’a...
Cornelius Griffin and a healthy Taylor and Joe Salave’a were the main difference between this game and the last one on November 13. Griffin and Salave’a deflected both passes that were intercepted—one by Arrington and the clincher by Marcus Washington.

...and Portis
Clinton Portis couldn’t put up another hundred on the Bucs as he did in the last two games against them because he hurt his shoulder knocking out—that’s right knocking out—a blitzing Bucs’ linebacker and sat out most of the second half. For a superstar runner, Portis goes above and beyond the call to help his team win. Only Eric Dickerson and Earl Campbell gained more rushing yards in their first four seasons than Portis. Can you picture Dickerson blocking anyone, let alone crushing anyone with a block? Guys with those kinds of numbers rarely block.

This is an example of the reason why I think this team has a chance to do something special. I haven’t seen this kind of unity and self sacrifice on the Redskins since Joe Gibbs’ last term. The deck is definitely stacked against them, but as I said, they are the best team in the NFC.

Enough About the Lack of Offense
Did anyone notice that when the Redskins’ offense lined up the Buccaneers had the gall to put eleven of their players on the field? Who did they think they were? Oh, yeah. Statistically, they were the number one defense in the NFL this year. They get paychecks too.

The Redskins get FOURTEEN points in the first quarter because their defense played even better than the Bucs’ and you expect them to open up the offense with a 14 – 0 lead? If Gibbs had done that, I would have thought he was crazy. He didn’t, and he won his 17th playoff game. So, once again Gibbs confirmed that he knows more about football than Chris Berman, Steve Young, Tom (we Shoulda’ won SB XXII) Jackson, Woody (how bout dem Cowboys) Paige, and a whole host of people ragging on the Redskins offense right now.

By the way, Tampa only gave up 278 yards per game this year versus 319 for the Seahawks and the Bucs didn’t get to play six games against the Rams, Cards, and 49ers. A fifteen-percent difference is not small in the NFL. But, there will be more on the Seahawks later. Remember the old adage about defense and special teams in the playoffs? Hail to the Redskins.

Redskins v Bucs: By the Numbers

The 1985 New England Patriots are the only team to get into the playoffs via the wildcard and then win three playoff games on the road to reach the Super Bowl. This is the twentieth anniversary of that feat. Twenty, that’s a nice round number.

One-in-twenty makes the Redskins’ Super Bowl dream seem nearly insurmountable. But, when teams truly take their task one game at a time, it reduces one-in-twenty to one-in-one. Win one, and move on to the next one. That simplifies a lot of things. That makes an insurmountable task surmountable. That makes this a one-game matchup between two 53-player teams. So let’s look at some Redskins-Bucs numbers and see how they match up. As everyone knows by now, the Bucs beat the Redskins on November 13 by a score of 36 – 35 on a last minute two-point conversion. Replays showed that the Bucs’ running back, Alstott, never made it into the end zone.

Zero:
The number of minutes Cornelius Griffin and Sean Taylor played in the first game against the Bucs.

Cornelius Griffin is the Redskins MVP on defense. I say that because when he is healthy and plays the team is immensely better than when he isn’t and doesn’t. No other Redskins player has the kind of impact that he does on defense, although Taylor comes close. In fact, most knowledgeable Skins fans would probably list the Redskins’ top-three defenders in this order: Griffin, Marcus Washington, Taylor—one player on each unit.

In the Redskins first eleven games, Griffin was either out or hurting. He sat out the four games beginning with the first game against the Giants and the Redskins went 1 -3. During the eleven-game stretch in which he was either out or hurt, the Redskins defense totaled eleven sacks (one per game) and eighteen take aways (1.6 per game). Griffin came back during week eleven. Since their eleventh game, the Skins defense totaled seventeen sacks (3.4 per game) and 17 take aways (3.4 PG). Griffin makes the entire defensive line better. Since Griffin came back, Philip Daniels has five of his eight sacks.

Zero is also the number of times the Redskins sacked Chris Simms in their first meeting. Most quarterbacks perform worse when they are getting hit, but Simms is an absolute mess when he gets hit. Simms has started ten games. When he gets sacked less than two times per game, Chris Simms has a record of 5 – 0. Sack him two or more times in a game and Simms is 1 – 4. When Simms gets sacked three or more times, the Bucs are 0 – 4. In fact, Comcast SportsNet posted that Simms has by far the lowest quarterback rating of the twelve playoff quarterbacks when he gets hit in a game—he has a 65 rating when he gets hit.

Recap of the number zero: Cornelius Griffin and Taylor are superstars that sat out the first Bucs game. Griffin makes the whole defensive line better and they average 3.4 sacks per game when Griffin is healthy. Chris Simms is 0 – 4 when he is sacked three or more times in a game. Healthy players Griffin and Taylor are the biggest difference between tomorrow’s playoff game and the first meeting between the Redskins and Bucs.


0 – 2 vs. 2 – 0
Apart from their head-to-head game, Tampa Bay and the Redskins had two common opponents this year: The 11-5 Bears and the 4-12 Forty-Niners. The Bucs lost both games by a combined score of 28-20. The Skins won both by a combined score of 62-26. Not much more needs to be said, especially when one considers the New York Times strength of schedule graph on the left.

16 - 5 and 7 – 1:
The first is Joe Gibbs’ record in the playoffs including the Super Bowl and the second is Gibbs’ record in the first round of the playoffs; the one loss was a four-point loss to the Bears in 1984. Not much more needs to be said.


148 and 144:
The first is the number of rushing yards that Clinton Portis got against the Bucs last year. The second is the number of rushing yards that Portis put on the Bucs in their stadium this year. Not much more needs to be said.

So that is enough of the numbers. The only other thing I want to address is this notion that the Redskins somehow spent their load on their five-game winning streak and are too banged up in the secondary—especially Shawn Springs—to stay with the Bucs’ receivers. First of all, that is not a murderer’s row of receivers over there. Galloway is good, but he’s not the best receiver that the Redskins faced this year—that title would belong to any one of the Cardinals or Rams’ receivers. Second, when the Redskins’ defense is in Simms’ face all day, they could cover Galloway with box springs and it wouldn’t hurt them. Third, there is a first-round draft pick at cornerback on the Skins named Carlos Rogers who got two of his first three starts against a true murderer’s row of receivers on the Cards and Rams. The Cards had the best passing offense in the NFL and the Rams were fourth. Rogers helped to shut down Fitzgerald, Boldin, Holt, and Bruce and kept them out of the end zone. Rogers had two picks in those three starts. I don’t think Gregg Williams is worried about the Bucs passing game, especially when the Bucs number two receiver, Clayton, is out for this game.

Finally, the NFL knows that they screwed the Redskins in the first game. From Galloway's way-out-of-bounds catch that put the ball on the four and led to seven points for the Bucs, to the Bucs' cornerback's manhandling of Moss on a screen on which Simeon rice got an interception and took at least a field goal off the board for the Redskins, to the Alstott no-point conversion, they screwed the Skins. There is no conspiracy against the Redskins, so the league must have talked about being especially diligent in this game. The Bucs will not get a refereeing advantage in this game.

Prediction: Redskins win in a blow out thanks in part to a pass rush from the defensive line that forces Simms into multiple mistakes.

Mike and the Mad Dog Predictions

M&MD just split their Redskins picks. Mike picked the Bucs and Mad Dog, the Redskins.

Mike’s Rationale: “The Redskins secondary is too banged up.”

Translation: “I am in love with Chris Simms because his daddy was a Giant. Parcells is a former Giants coach, which is why I pick the Cowboys in games in which they don’t play the Giants. It’s also why I picked the Cowboys to go to the playoffs instead of the Redskins right up until about 7:30pm last Sunday night. I also pick the Patriots this week because Belichek was a Giants coach. I wear Giants pajamas with built-in slippers and sleep on Giants sheets.”

Mad Dog’s Rationale: “The Redskins are as hot as all can be” and the quarterback and running back have playoff experience.

Translation: “The Redskins are as hot as all can be and the quarterback and running back have playoff experience.”

I will give Mike some credit, though. He did say he is picking against the better team. Specifically, he said he “knows the Redskins are the better team.” He also said everybody he talked to (presumably with a job as an NFL analyst) is picking the Redskins.

By the way, I will have plenty to say on a couple of theories that I have heard ad nauseum. Namely, that the Redskins are too banged up to stay with the Bucs receivers and the Redskins somehow spent their load just getting into the playoffs.

Quick Stat: The Second Time Around

Great coaches do a good job figuring out division opponents when they play them the second time in the same season, and their teams usually improve their performance the second time around. Joe Gibbs is a great coach. Joe’s team improved in all three games this year against division opponents.

2005 Season

Redskins v Giants
1st: Giants 36 Redskins 0
2nd: Giants 20 Redskins 35
Difference
Giants -16 Redskins +35
Total 51 point swing

Redskins v Cowboys
1st: Cowboys 13 Redskins 14
2nd: Cowboys 7 Redskins 35
Difference
Cowboys -6 Redskins + 21
Total 27 point swing

Redskins v Eagles
1st: Eagles 10 Redskins 17
2nd: Eagles 20 Redskins 31
Difference
Eagles +10 Redskins +14
Total 4 point swing

Average point swing in favor of the Redskins: 27.33 against teams that finished 26-22. Not too shabby.


Chucky’s team improved its performance in two out of its three division games this year as follows:

Bucs v Panthers
1st: Carolina 34 Bucs 14
2nd: Carolina 10 Bucs 20
Difference
Carolina -24 Bucs +6
Total 30 point swing

Bucs v Falcons
1st: Atlanta 27 Bucs 30
2nd: Atlanta 24 Bucs 27
Difference
Atlanta -3 Bucs -3
No Change

Bucs v Saints
1st: New Orleans 3 Bucs 10
2nd: New Orleans 13 Bucs 27
Difference
New Orleans +10 Bucs +17
Total 7 point swing

Average Point swing in favor of the Bucs: 12.33 against teams that finished 22-26.

Update 5:30pm.
I just read Boswell's column in the Washington Post that was published today. He raises a similar topic:

Few things please Gibbs more than preparing for a revenge game against a team that beat him earlier in the year. This season's turnabout against the Giants -- from an 0-36 loss to a 35-20 win -- is an extreme example. But throughout his 14 seasons, Gibbs's teams have improved by an average of 17 points in their rematches against teams that previously beat them. That's far beyond any normal statistical probability. The most obvious explanation is that Gibbs and his staff learn a whole lot more from studying the film how they lost that first game than you learn from studying how you beat them.

Within minutes of making the playoffs, Gibbs was employing his familiar motivational methods. "I thought we played one of our best games down there [in Tampa], but we couldn't win," he said of the 36-35 loss eight weeks ago. What he didn't say was that the Bucs probably played their second-best game of the season to win and needed a controversial last-minute call to boot.

What should we expect tomorrow when the Skins meet the Bucs for the second time this year?

Accountability

Thanks to Bang for helping to make this possible:

For a collection of very funny NFL-related cartoons visit Bang often:

It's Great to be Right

That pat, pat, pat sound you hear is the sound of my hand hitting my back. Hey, somebody’s got to give me credit.

Okay, I didn’t make any tackles or blocks or throw any touchdown passes, but I did predict here, here, and here that the Redskins would make the playoffs this year including this post when the Redskins were 5 – 5 in which I wrote that the Chargers game was not a must-win game for their playoff hopes. In fact, that was so accurate, here is an excerpt from that post published on 11-25-05:

Now, everywhere I turn, people are saying this Sunday’s game against the Chargers is a must-win game. That’s just more nonsense. I expect it to be close, but this is not must-win game. The Chargers play in the AFC and cannot take a playoff spot from the Redskins.

Obviously, overall record is the most important determinant in getting into the playoffs, so a win against the Chargers would be great if only to shut the pundits up, but with parity and six games left, several teams in the NFC East and South will wind up tied at the top of their division at the end of the year. The Redskins most important remaining games are their last five, which are against NFC teams. With apologies to Kornheiser, they actually have a good shot at running the table in their last five.

I caught a lot of flak for that analysis and not just from the Giants fans who are insecure about the quality of their team. Redskins fans thought I was nuts, too. Well, the Redskins subsequently lost the Chargers game and here they are in the playoffs.

So, why are the Redskins in the playoffs? Well, it’s simply because they are the best team in the NFC, as I posted here last week, and they have the best head coach in the NFL. They have the best record in the NFC at 10-2. They are tied with Seattle and Chicago with that record, but the Redskins beat Seattle and Chicago.

“C’mon, Counter Trey, you don’t really believe they are better than the NFC’s one and two seeds, do ya?” Yes, more than that, I know it is true. Not only did the Skins beat them straight up, the Redskins didn’t play in a powder-puff division like the Seahawks and Bears. The old “black and blue” NFC North should be called the “pink and lavender” North, and the West is anything but “wild.” The Redskins only true conference loss this year was against the NFC East Giants, and they subsequently avenged that loss decisively.

Going into yesterday’s games, the New York Times writer, David Leonhardt, wrote a piece that promoted a new tie-breaker for the NFL that is based on strength of schedule. In it, Leonhardt listed the fourteen teams in or still alive for the playoffs and the winning percentage of their opponents. No surprise, the Redskins had the most difficult schedule of all of the playoff teams with an opponents’ winning percentage of 0.546. The Seahawks had the easiest schedule with a 0.421 opponents’ winning percentage and the Bears were twelfth out of fourteen at 0.446.

I also think the NFC South was way over-rated because of all of the Fox and Vick lovers in the press; those two guys can do no wrong in the sports media. Here’s just one example from Schein whose top-ten NFL predictions for 2006 included that the Broncos and Redskins would finish in last place in their divisions and the Panthers would win the Super Bowl:

“I can't even begin to describe how much I respect this (Panthers) organization, from general manger Marty Hurney to coach John Fox.”

It sounds like the pages of his Panthers media guide might stick together. And, you need to look no further than the NFC Pro Bowl selection of Vick to see the media adoration of him. Mark Brunnell’s quarterback numbers are so superior to Vick’s this year that Vick wouldn’t be qualified to hold Brunnell’s clipboard. And, oh yeah, the Redskins are in the playoffs that Vick will watch at home. Oh, and the Panthers and Bucs are ranked eleventh and thirteenth in Leonhardt’s piece with a 0.454 and 0.446 opponent winning percentage, respectively.

So, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a rematch of the 1986 NFC championship game between the battle-tested Redskins and Giants this year although it will be a more difficult road for the Redskins to get there than the Giants. The Skins will have to win in Tampa Bay and then in Seattle to get to that game in New Jersey. And the Skins lost three cornerbacks in yesterday’s game after already having one starting cornerback on the inactive list before the game.

But, I’ll have more to say on the game against the Bucs in a later post this week. There are a lot of positive things to focus on for that Bucs game, not least of which is the revenge factor. Redskins’ players were reluctant to provide any bulletin board material yesterday, but in every post-game interview, sly smiles crossed their faces whenever the interviewer brought up the rematch with the Buccaneers. They want revenge for that robbery in Tampa. Let’s hope Taylor leaves his gun at home for that revenge (see "Extra Points").

By the way, you can add James Hasty of Cold Pizza to the long list of NFL analysts who think the Skins were robbed. How important was that theft? The Redskins would have won the NFC East, a home playoff game, the number two seed, and a bye if the correct call was made in Tampa. Given how banged up the Redskins are they could have really used that bye. That might be the difference between an NFC championship/Super Bowl appearance and a playoff loss in the next few weeks.