Tuesday, October 27, 2015

A Tale of Two Quarterbacks

This is a story about two quarterbacks. The first QB—call him QB A—is a Heisman Trophy winning quarterback who was drafted by a sorry NFL team within the top-two picks of the first round. His head coach during his rookie season adapted his playbook to install the read-option play to help him break into the NFL as a starter in his very first game. The coach would mix in the read-option to keep defenses guessing the way all coaches use play-action passes. In his rookie NFL season, he threw passes for significant yardage, helped triple his team’s win total from the year before and was named to the Pro Bowl. He broke rookie QB records, including most rushing yards. He was named the NFL’s Rookie of the Year.

Sadly, QB A’s story turns somewhat negative in his second NFL season. His passing yardage and touchdowns declined. He had developed into a bit of a moody player and was often seen sulking on the bench during a losing season and criticized for failing to show leadership. You think you know how this story ends, right? Read on.

The second QB—call him QB B—was also a Heisman Trophy winner the year before he was drafted. He was also drafted in the top-two picks. His rookie-year NFL coach also adapted his playbook to install the read-option play to help him break into the NFL as a starter in his very first game. The coach would mix in the read-option to keep defenses guessing the way all coaches use play-action passes. In his rookie NFL season, he helped double his team’s win total from the year before and was named to the Pro Bowl. He broke rookie QB records, including most rushing yards. He was named the NFL’s Rookie of the Year.

QB A only won six games his first year and seven his second. QB B, however, played for a team that was 3 – 6 at the bye week of his rookie year when his coach had declared the season over and that over the remainder of that season everyone would be playing for their jobs for the next season. But, this rookie QB B would not listen to that coach. He gave a rousing locker room speech that ten-year veterans said made them believe they could run through walls for QB B. QB B put the entire team on his shoulders and willed them to seven straight wins and a division title with precision passing and play calling that confused defenses.

Clearly, if either of the two were going to lose their starting job by year three, it would have been QB A, who exhibited fewer passing skills compared with QB B. In fact, QB B broke the all-time rookie passer rating, blowing away Ben Roethlisberger’s 2004 record and Dan Mario’s 1984 record. At 90.6, QB B still has a career passer rating that is significantly higher than QB A’s 84.8, largely because of better precision (63.9% career completion percentage vs. 59.2%), especially on deeper passes.

But, QB A kept his job. In fact, QB A’s starting job was never in doubt because QB A is a prodigious talent capable of carrying a team as a franchise QB to many Super Bowl titles. In fact, in his third season, still running the occasional read-option, having kept his starting job, he led his team to twelve wins and a playoff bye. In his fourth season, still running the occasional read-option, he also led his team to a division title and a playoff win, but the team eventually lost to the NFC Champions. Now in his fifth season in 2015, still running the occasional read-option, he has led his team to a 6 – 0 record (Update 12-5-15: now 11 - 0; the only undefeated team left in the NFL), one of five teams that remain unbeaten. No, QB A kept his job and QB B, apparently the better talent, lost his job.

Of course you know by now that QB A is Cam Newton and QB B is Robert Griffin III, a prodigious talent drafted the year after Cam, who was unlucky to be drafted by a team that changed head coaches in his third season. RG3 was not Jay Gruden’s QB and Gruden made that clear on day one. Jay Gruden does not believe an NFL team should run the read-option. No, Gruden’s system requires NFL QBs to sit in the pocket and get rid of the ball quickly, throwing short passes from the pocket and rarely running out of the pocket.

Are you listening to Gruden, Aaron Rogers (best career passer rating in history), Tony Romo (second-best career passer rating in history), Drew Brees (7th-best career passer rating in history), Russell Wilson (two-time NFC champ and Super Bowl winner), and Cam Newton? Did you listen Steve Young (4th-best career passer rating in history and Super Bowl Champ)? Why won’t you guys just sit in the damn pocket as Jay Gruden believes you need to in order to win?

As RG3's first-year head coach in 2014, Gruden gave RG3 five starts to prove himself, and those five starts were interrupted by RG3's ankle injury. The starts came in Redskins' games 1, 2, 9, 10, and 11. Then, Gruden benched RG3 in favor of McCoy, who had won the starting job over Cousins because Cousins' play was atrocious during RG3's injury. Then, McCoy's poor play led Gruden to start RG3 again in games 14, 15, and 16. RG3 played well in games against the Eagles (W) and Cowboys (L). That was the last time RG3 played for Gruden. Eight starts with interruptions for injury and a benching. Compare that with how Gruden treats Cousins.

When RG3 took a sack, fumbled or threw an INT behind an O-line that was a sieve in 2014, Gruden publicly criticized RG3 for "not seeing what was there" and "holding the ball too long". When Cousins replaced RG3 and threw INTs at a rate that was 50% higher than RG3's rate and fumbled more often, there was no comment from Gruden. The same is true of Gruden's comments on McCoy. Despite Griffin's troubles behind a bad offensive line, he outplayed his backups at QB, but you would never know it from Gruden's comments.

RG3 was never Jay Gruden’s QB and that is why the Redskins have a prodigiously talented franchise QB capable of leading their team to many Super Bowl titles sitting on the bench waiting for his release, while the Carolina Panthers realize the benefits of sticking with Cam Newton; they might even win a Super Bowl behind Cam Newton this year, a QB who has fewer skills at the position than RG3.

One footnote: Jay Gruden has picked his QB over RG3. That QB has struggled mightily in his career. Last week, while trailing 24 - 0 to TB and Cousins still struggling mightily with poorly thrown passes, Jay Gruden pulled out a play that Jay Gruden does not believe a QB should run--the read-option. It worked. Imagine that. I guess it is acceptable to run the read-option if you are Jay Gruden's guy. That play eventually led to a win and may have turned the season around. Imagine that. Now, imagine what the Redskins could be doing if their franchise QB weren't sitting on the bench.

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