Congrats Giants/Belichick Spits the Bit

This is my recollection of the last time the Skins played the Giants. As the priceless NFL Network commentary shows, it was a huge game for both teams. It's a reminder of just how close the Giants' season came to ending on that day. But, the Giants fought through what would have been a devastating loss to many teams.

They fought through two missed field goals in Green Bay, stayed in the game, and were given an easy pick from Favre to seal it; they beat a Dallas team that wasn’t very good after all, which the Skins overwhelmingly proved in December; and they beat up on the Bucs.

Maybe most important of all is how they overcame Eli Manning’s five fumbles and two interceptions and a 14-0 Bills lead in Buffalo in the game after their nearly devastating loss to the Skins. The Giants scored twenty-one unanswered fourth quarter points to clinch their playoff spot. If they hadn’t found a way to beat the Bills that day, they probably wouldn’t be Super Bowl champs today and everyone would have pointed to the Skins game as the culprit. That is how close everyone is in the NFL. That is why resilience and persistence are so important, and the Giants had the most of both this year. (Ed Note: Phil Simms just said the exact same thing on the Mike and the Mad Dog radio show (2/4/08). He said that there were a couple of plays in almost every game that the Giants played after the Skins game that if they didn't go the Giants way, they would not be champs today and would probably have been watching the game on TV.)

As for Sunday's game, the Giants can thank three things for the trophy: 1.) their front four put pressure on Brady all day; 2.) Tyree made an amazing catch with his right hand pressing the ball against his helmet to keep the game winning drive alive; and 3.) Bill Belichick made an asinine decision to go for a first down on fourth-and-thirteen when the Patriots were well within Gostkowski's indoor range for a 48-yard field goal;

The loss by three must sting a bit now, huh?

I guess even "geniuses" can make stupid calls. This tarnishes the reputation a bit. I don't believe in luck or karma, but if I did, I would say Belichick had this coming to him for running up the score on the Skins and other teams this year. Shotgun formation, four wideouts, Brady in the game throwing on nearly every down with a 35-point lead and 12-minutes left? The same thing sans Brady with five minutes left? Vrabel on kickoff coverage with a 40+ point lead and two minutes left to play? Belichick deserved this loss.

The Giants and Redskins each showed similar resilience this year. Let's hope that Zorn and Blache and their new head coach can get the same results—Skins 22-Giants 10—two times next year.

"It's a Redskin Day, Baby"

"It's a Redskin day, baby.'' That was how Darrell Green put it yesterday.

Yes, it was.

The Hall of Fame voters finally got it right; they selected Art Monk yesterday. It is still a travesty that Michael Irvin was selected before Monk by these same guys last year. I still think the voting process needs to change. Sports writers are full of biases and apparently vindictiveness if you read any quotes in the past few years from one voter—Zimmerman. Sports writers are also susceptible to campaigning, which is the only explanation for Irvin’s selection last year. Here is Peter King on the Monk selection:

The dogged strength of Monk's candidacy -- buttressed by an unending stream of e-mails and phone messages to the selectors -- probably knocked out Carter and Buffalo's Andre Reed.

King didn’t mention that Andre Reed said he would not want to be selected for the Hall if Monk was not in.

Watching Darrell Green make his speech and hearing Monk’s over the phone made a few other things very clear. These were not just great players, they are also great people. Green and Monk could not have been more humble or grateful.

Green speech included this line:

"For my whole career, I was overpaid, over-respected and over-cared for, so I just want to say to all of you, thank you so much."

Green and Monk were/are the epitome of the classy players with which Gibbs populates his teams. Gibbs has always said character is the first thing he looks for when evaluating talented players and he found it spades in these two. He has also found it in Campbell, Thrash, Randle El, Rogers, and dozens of others that he brought in over the past four years. Gibbs put together a very good core of young guys who could win an NFC championship next year. I hope Snyder does not screw this up.

For Darrell Green to be selected with the first ballot is an honor that few receive. I think the selectors were trying to make up for past wrongs with respect to the Skins. In eleven seasons from 1981 through 1991, the Redskins made five trips to the NFC Championship game, won four NFC championships, and won three Super Bowl titles. Yet, prior to yesterday, the only Redskins player in the Hall of Fame from that era was John Riggins, and he was only around for two of their five NFC Championship games (1982 and 1983 seasons). By contrast, Monk was there for all five and Green was with the team for four. The Hall has not finished its work.

I do not know why special teams’ players are rarely considered for the Hall of Fame when it is clear special teams often make the difference between champions and also-rans. Mark Mosley was the only kicker in NFL history to be named league MVP (1982). When he retired, he owned the record for most consecutive field goals and was way up there in points. Brian Mitchell retired as the player with the most yards gained in NFL history, which was broken by Jerry Rice in 2004, but not by much (23,546 to 23,330). Mitchell still holds the NFL record for touchdown returns, although Hester is a good bet to break it. These guys should be in the HOF.

The Redskins had some outstanding defensive players then, too. Dexter Manley was the all-time sacks leader for several years and was passed by Lawrence Taylor who is in the HOF already. Dexter always had a left tackle over him and often a tight end would help block him. Unlike with Taylor, there was never any surprise when Dexter was coming. Dave Butz took on double teams and still consistently stuffed the run. Unfortunately, defensive tackles don’t have flashy stats that they can use to impress the HOF voters.

Then there are the Hogs. They set the standard for offensive linemen that is still being emulated today: Bigger and stronger players who are quick enough to pull (as in the counter trey) and protect the quarterback. At least two of the Hogs—and probably three—should be in the HOF: Jacoby, Grimm, and maybe Bostic. They didn’t just have a catchy name; they were dominating in their era. That is the only explanation for three Super Bowl championships with three different quarterbacks and running backs. It is the only explanation for Timmy Smith, who still holds the Super Bowl rushing record with 204 yards in his first and only start in any NFL game.

Super Bowl
Today is Super Bowl Sunday. I just caught four minutes—and only four minutes—of Fox’s pregame and it coincidentally included the part where they honored former NFLers who passed away this year. It took me about twenty seconds before I realized that the picture of one of my favorite players of all time was about to be flashed on the screen. I still cannot believe that the Redskins’ 24-year old safety--a guy who I thought would be in their secondary for many more years--is dead. They ended the segment with Taylor’s picture in uniform with his right arm raised high and the years of his life scrolled underneath. It made me very sad once again. I thought I was over it.

I am going to root for the guys with the “21” on their helmets today. Go Giants! They understand what it means to honor a great player.

Sean Taylor was a guy who would have been inducted in the Hall of Fame on the first ballot in the class of approximately 2023. RIP.

Santana!

Even the Wilpons couldn't screw this one up, although a quote from Santana's agent makes me believe they came close. Santana's agent, Greenberg, said:

"I honestly thought the deal was dead."

He said that when they were five million dollars apart. Are you kidding me? Five million?

The most important thing to keep an eye on now is whether the Mets try to dump some guys with slightly high prce tags like they did with Cameron in 2006. If they don't, the Mets should win the NL pennant and they have as good a shot as anyone for the World Series title.

Mets Get Santana? Not yet

The Mets may have just pulled a rabbit out of a hat the way I am praying that Snyder will in a few days.

Acquiring Santana for four mid-level prospects--and not including Reyes--instantly makes the Mets the NL pennant favorite.

But wait. He is not in the bag yet. The deal is contingent on Santana signing a contract extension. Never underestimate the potential for the Wilpons to screw this up. Especially now because, as Olney of ESPN.com points out, Santana and his agent have ALL of the leverage now that the trade has been announced. The Wilpons are absolutely squirming right now.

Will they say Santana's demands are unreasonable as they did when they cut off the A-rod negotiations several years ago before A-rod signed with Texas? Will they stop $8 million dollars short of sealing a deal and a sure pennant, as they did when they traded Mike Cameron two years ago? Will the Wilpons try to nix it, as they tried to do in the Piazza trade in 1998?

Don't celebrate yet Mets fans. Let's see it in writing first.

Dan Snyder is Insane

I am afraid that my Redskins are in disarray. This head coach decision is a debacle. It appears that Snyder and Co. are back to their old attempts at quick fixes. We’ll soon find out if they go back to signing old, expensive free agents whose best days are in the past. And, I thought that Snyder had learned something from Gibbs. I have always been a strong defender of Snyder, and anyone who follows the Redskins knows that he has received a lot of criticism. If Snyder does not hire Gregg Williams, he will have lost me, too. (ed note; that should have read: If Snyder hires Fassel over Gregg Williams, he will have lost me, too. Maybe Snyder will pull a rabbit out of a hat.)

Joe Gibbs put in place a foundation and process for long-term success. Gibbs retired early and now Snyder is about to blow the whole thing up. Why? The rumor was that he was about to snub Gregg Williams, who was Joe Gibbs’s choice as his successor, and hire Jim Fassel. I’m sorry, but since when has Fassel ever been confused with being a football genius?

Fassel had a less-than-average record as an NFL head coach, a piss-poor record as a college head coach, and as offensive coordinator in Baltimore he presided over one of the NFL's worst offenses. In the 2001, Marty Schottenheimer had a better record than Fassel in Marty's only year as Skins HC. In 2003, Spurrier--for Chrissakes--had a better record than Fassel and Spurrier was pushed out head first. Fassel may have been my locker neighbor at our Country Club, but he was a no show at the Club as much as his teams were no shows in the playoffs. Almost all of the success of his Giants teams—what little there was—could be attributed to Fox.

When the rumors starting flying that the Redskins were about to announce that they hired Fassel, Redskins Nation went nuts. Nearly every fan site ran a poll: From Extremeskins.com to the Washington Post’s web site, Gregg Williams was the landslide choice of the fans. Fans were calling in to talk radio and posting that they would stop buying Redskins souvenirs and apparel and season ticket holders were pondering what they would do with their next invoice. It was enough of an uproar that two reporters from WaPo speculated that it forced Snyder to reverse the Fassel decision. If that is true, good for the fans. Fassel is now saying that he feels betrayed, so the initial reports were probably true.

Why wouldn’t Williams be the choice for head coach? He had the Redskins defense in the top ten in three of the past four years. He has had tremendous success as a defensive coordinator wherever he has been. The players are solidly behind him. No one wants to start over and fix something that’s not broken. He’s Joe Gibbs’s choice for goodness sakes. And he certainly would have continued down the same path as the past three years. He would not make radical changes to a team that needs tweaks. The blue prints for success are in place and he is one of the chief architects. The Redskins were in the playoffs in two of the past three years despite numerous obstacles. In the prior twelve years since Gibbs left the first time, they had made the playoffs just once.

But, as I write this, ESPN is reporting that the Redskins have given Jim Zorn a three-year contract to be their offensive coordinator. Unless Williams gave his nod to Zorn behind the scenes, this is not good news. Any head coach worth his salt is going to want to hire his own assistants. That either means that the coach that Snyder plans to hire has already agreed to the job and has signed off on Zorn, or it means that the new head coach is going to be Snyder’s lap dog, or it means Snyder is going to pay Zorn for three years to do nothing. And consider this: Saunders is now out as OC, so the Redskins are going to lose their second string QB, Collins--the one who led them to the playoffs this year with a four game winning streak. Collins success is almost completely due to his knowledge of Saunders system and Collins is a free agent. He'll probably wind up wherever Saunders does. What a debacle.

Tom Boswell of the WaPo (and not one of the speculators on the result of the fan uproar)had this to say today:

Who brought in both Williams and Saunders with their proven systems? Who drafted Jason Campbell to be the quarterback of the future? Who identified Clinton Portis and Santana Moss to be featured offensive stars? (Ed. Note: And Chris Cooley, the tight end who has the most NFC TDs since 2004; and Antwaan Randle El; and London Fletcher, a perennial top-ten tackler; and Marcus Washington; and Sean Taylor; and on and on…) Who constantly selected players for personal or character traits that might make them "True Redskins?"

The answer, of course, is Gibbs. No one in town did much more than ask, "What do you want, Joe?" then go out and get it for him. And who was Gibbs's clear choice, as recently as the day he left, to be the next coach? Williams.

If any other Hall of Fame coach with three Super Bowl rings, some Walsh or Noll, had been courted out of retirement when his old team called -- desperate, dysfunctional and in disarray -- to help the franchise regain its dignity, wouldn't his wishes have carried weight on the day he left? Is everything Gibbs put in place really so easy to blow up? Is keeping staff members hanging in the dark about their future for 16 days really the way to go?

The Redskins have plenty of excuse for being disoriented, and perhaps even a little wounded, by Gibbs's sudden departure. But the organization should reconsider its first and most obvious choice for head coach (Gregg Williams). That is, if it isn't already too late.

After watching the Wilpons destroy my favorite MLB team, to the point where I cancelled my season tickets which I owned for five years, I now am watching the Redskins go down the drain. They were “this” close to the Super Bowl this year, and are obviously a better team than the Giants, Cowboys and Packers, and now it seems that they are starting over. I don’t have much time for sports fandom any more. I never thought that giving up my Skins season tickets would ever enter my mind, but now it has. Maybe I’ll just sell them on StubHub like all of the fans who own seats around me do, sell to the opposing team fans, until new ownership takes over or Snyder comes to his senses.

AAAARRRRRRGGGGGGHHHHHH!!!!!!

It was a hell of a ride. And, it was an incredibly emotional ride.

They had the game. They would win.

• Fourth quarter;
• They just scored their second TD in a couple of minutes to take their first lead;
• They kickoff and the ball bounces over the returner’s head and the Skins recover at Seattle’s 14. It was actually returned for a TD by Mix, who has done an outstanding job on specials this year since they picked him up off waivers in the middle of the year, but the rule says that kickoff teams cannot advance the ball;

So, the Skins have a first and ten from Seattle’s 14-yard line, with about 12-minutes left and have a 14-13 lead. Game over, right?

No.

• Incomplete to Cooley;
• A few more stops;
• 30-yard FG…missed;
• Seattle drives for a TD and two-point conversion to take a seven point lead;

Even Landry’s second pick of the day to kill a Seahawk drive was not enough. An inexperienced Collins tried to force two passes into coverage and had both picked and returned for TDs making a very close game—right to the end—appear like a blowout.

But, the loss is not on Collins. He did reasonably well under the circumstances. For the Skins, the loss has to be pinned on the offensive line. Their injuries finally caught up to them. Portis had little running room and Collins was under pressure all day. Almost all of the pressure came from the Skin’s right side where Skins stars Jansen and Thomas would have been playing if healthy. Next year.

There are silver linings. Actually many silver linings. A lot depends on whether Gibbs comes back, but my gut says he will. I think he realizes that this team is very close.

One silver lining is that a lot of young guys played their first playoff game today, earned a lot of valuable experience, and did well. In some cases, the young guys played “superstar’ well. I’m thinking specifically of LaRon Landry who moved over to play Taylor’s free safety spot after Taylor’s death. What a game he played—two picks and the first gave them their first lead, and it came in the fourth quarter. What an athlete he is. The future is very bright for him and the Skins. Can you imagine the defense they would have had if Taylor was back there with him next year? Only in spirit, now.

Heyer and Fabini, filling in for Jansen and Thomas, earned valuable experience. They will make great backups next year and they are very cheap. The skins O-line should be very solid with those six and maybe one other offseason pickup. Doughty, who won the strong safety spot after Landry moved over, played very well, too. He is another find who came cheaply. The only drawback was that Jason Campbell wasn’t able to get any playoff experience because of his injury. But, they probably wouldn’t be there without Collins.

Do you think the skins have to worry about a backup QB? I think they will make Collins happy in the offseason. It shouldn’t take a ton of money, either.

The Skins have a great core of young guys. They should be able to make some simple moves in the offseason to make this, not just a good team, but a dominating team. Their defensive line found great backups in Evans, Golston and Montgomery…and Alexander who played offensive line, too, when all of the injuries hit that unit. What a valuable guy he turned out to be…and he would be tackle-eligible and go in motion…go figure.

They also found out some good things about some veterans. Carter hit double digits in sacks from the DE spot. Randle El CAN play wide receiver. Kendall was a great pick up from the Jets. Thanks Mangini. Suisham is very good…forget the miss today. Cartwright is the reincarnation of Brian Mitchell. I believe he led the NFL in kickoff return average, and he is a fiery guy. He had some great returns today; two that were called back on penalties.

In summary, I think they just need to add a little talent—say their top two draft picks—on each side of the line.

I am very sorry and sad that the run is over. The memory of Sean Taylor will fade quickly for the media and will fade for many casual fans. As long as the Skins were alive that would not have been true. New players will join next year. Let’s hope the chemistry and cohesiveness that brought this team together does not disappear. They are not far from a Super Bowl championship.

The Redskins’ road to the Super Bowl begins next year by winning enough regular season games to get home field and never have to face the piped-in noise in Seattle again. In fact, I would love for the skins to return the favor next year. I would love to see Seattle try to play in Landover in January next year.

(note: i wrote this quickly and may need to edit)

Hail to the Redskins

I stand by the prediction that I made at the beginning of the season: The Redskins are going to the...

SUPER BOWL!!!!!!!!

Hey, I was right about their defense. I said it would be a top-ten D after finishing at number 31 last year. I was right about this too: The Redskins are going to the Super Bowl because they are the best team in the NFC. Here are the facts:

• There is no other running back in the NFC playoffs within 250 yards of the rushing yards that Portis has gained this year. And, Portis has improved immensely as a receiver this year making him a Westbrook-like release valve for Collins and the rest of the offense. Portis is the best running back in the NFC playoffs. A strong running game is key in January and February;

• There is no other NFC quarterback within 9 QB rating points of Todd Collins. I concede that Collins rating was earned in only four games, but even the best four-game stretch of the other QBs in the NFC playoffs only matches what Collins has done. Only Brady in the AFC has a higher rating and it is only slightly better. Collins also leads the NFL in yards per attempt. He has stretched the field and helped open up the running game for Portis. Collins was the NFC Offensive Player of the Month. The timing of his arrival is impeccable;

• The Redskins have the second-highest ranked defense of all the teams in the NFC playoffs (tied with the Giants / behind the Bucs), and it is playing its best right now;

• There is no other team in the playoffs that has played a tougher schedule. You read that correctly. The Skins had by far the toughest schedule of all the teams in the playoffs from either conference. They faced teams with a combined 0.555 winning percentage. Seattle, by comparison, not only had the easiest schedule of all of the teams in the playoffs, they had the easiest schedule of all 32 teams in the NFL;

• Certainly, there is no other team that has had to overcome the adversity that the Redskins have overcome this year. The Redskins proved they have championship-quality depth when six starters were lost for the year (or forever) and they still managed to get into the derby. All except Jansen and Thomas were first-round draft picks who were replaced by guys who were mostly low draft picks or undrafted free agents. Jansen and Thomas were high second rounders. Great depth and the proven ability to overcome adversity is how conference championships are won;

• The six fill-in starters have gained valuable experience because many of the injuries occurred early in the year. The timing was both a curse and a blessing. A curse because it cost them in losses in early games that they would have won. A blessing because those fill-ins—like right tackle Stephon Heyer who shut out Adewale Ogunleye, Strahan, and DeMarcus Ware in three of the last four weeks—have made major contributions in the four-game win streak and are ready to help this team win in the playoffs. They are peaking at the perfect time;

Let’s Review How we Got Here
Last Sunday the Redskins crushed the Cowboys—the NFC’s number-one seed—to ensure a playoff spot. Don’t tell me that the Cowboys didn’t care about the game. They were going full out with their best players on the field until the Redskins put the game out of reach late in the third quarter. Even then they only pulled Romo and a couple of defensive players (not Roy Williams).

Do you think the Cowboys want to see the Redskins again? No team would want to face a division foe in the playoffs regardless of the quality of the opponent because division foes know each other so well. But, when you consider that the Cowboys also know they should have lost both games against the Skins this year, you can understand the urgency in which the Cowboys played this game.

Also, consider this: Marion Barber entered the game needing 19-yards to reach the 1,000-yard rushing milestone. He ended the game needing 25-yards. Witten needed seven catches to go over the 100-receptions mark. His two catches didn’t get him there. They wanted it, but the Skins took it from them.

How badly did Phillips want this game? Most of his starters were on the field for the whole game. How badly? He called Romo out of the tunnel just before halftime to run another play on an un-timed down due to a Redskins penalty. The Skins then sacked him and hurt him. Romo was wincing as he walked into the locker room. Yet, the Boy Blunder was back out there to start the second half. Wade Phillips risked the franchise in an attempt to win this game and knock the Skins out. Super Bowl and number one seed be damned.

Now, let’s look at other games against playoff teams this year in chronological order. Two things should become evident. First, the Redskins were “this” close to 12 to 15 wins, a bye, and home field advantage. Second, the team flying to Seattle is a different team from the one that let six wins slip away earlier in the season. This is true for several reasons, one of which is more important than most…which I will write about later.

1. The Skins lost to the Giants by seven points after jumping out to a 17 – 3 early lead. First-year starter Jason Campbell did an admirable job leading the team 64-yards down the field in the final two minutes, but the drive stalled on the one-yard line as time expired;

2. The Skins lost to Green Bay by three points in Green Bay after they had a 14–7 early lead. Santana Moss, who had been battling injuries most of the year until December, had his worst day as a pro. He dropped several deep passes and fumbled the ball that Green Bay’s Woodson returned for the winning TD in the second half. Jason Campbell did an admirable job leading the team to Green Bay’s 33 in the fourth quarter, but that drive and two subsequent ones fell short of a score;

3. The Skins lost to Dallas by five points in Dallas. With a 10 – 7 lead late in the third quarter Rocky McIntosh intercepted Romo and returned the ball to the Dallas three-yard line. That was the ruling on the field, anyway. At the very least, replays were inconclusive with several that showed McIntosh had at least one hand under the ball. Somehow, the interception was reversed and Dallas scored a TD on the drive resulting in a 14-point swing. Jason Campbell did an admirable job on two drives with less than three-minutes left. On one he overthrew (by five inches) a wide-open Santana Moss in the end zone on what would have been the game-winning TD. Two plays later he was intercepted;

4. The Skins lost to Tampa Bay by six points in Tampa. The Skins turned the ball over to the Bucs SIX times. The Bucs did not return the favor once, and the Skins only lost by six on the road. Are you kidding me? Every fumble that hit the ground, including one by the Bucs, landed in Tampa’s hands. The Bucs recovered four fumbles in the first half at the Washington, 28-, 26-, 18-, and 32-yard lines and the Bucs scored 16-points on those turnovers. In the third quarter the Skins were stopped on a fourth-and-one play at Tampa’s four-yard line. Late in the fourth quarter, Campbell did an admirable job on two drives. On one, he took the Skins from their nine-yard line to Tampa’s 32-yard line before he was intercepted. On the other, he took the Skins from their seven-yard line to Tampa’s 16-yard line before his potential game-winning pass was intercepted in the end zone;

And, of course, there were two losses to non-playoff teams. They had a five-point lead against the Eagles with four-minutes left and lost by eight. This was the game in which the Redskins had a nine-point lead in the fourth quarter before Sean Taylor injured his knee. That injury allowed Philly to score 26-points in the final 18-minutes by exploiting the part of the field that Taylor abandoned, after they could only score seven in the first 42-minutes with Taylor in the game. Taylor's injury also led to his murder, and his death was responsible for the team’s one-point, last-second loss to Buffalo on the day before Taylor’s funeral.

In fact, if you changed the outcome in just three extremely close games, the Redskins would be the NFC East division winners with a bye right now: 1. Give Buffalo the win over the Cowboys in that Monday night debacle in which the Cowboys--in 3:45--scored a TD, missed a two-point conversion, knocked forward and recovered an onside kick with 18 seconds left at the Buffalo 47, and kicked a field goal to win by two; 2. Reverse the first Dallas-Washington game; and 3. Reverse the Buffalo-Washington game. Reverse the outcome of these three close games and the Skins and Cowboys are each 11 - 5 with the Skins holding the head-to-head tie breaker. That is how close the Skins are to the number one seed in the NFC.

The unhappy recap is they could have waltzed into the playoffs with home field advantage. But, then they wouldn’t be the heartwarming story that they are now. They are America’s team now.

What is different now? Why are they blowing away opponents now when they lost close games before?
There are many who say the main difference is Taylor’s death. They believe the team is riding a wave of emotion that carried them this far. I think it is true that several key players who were close to Sean have stepped up their game, but the Redskins are not winning on emotion. Emotions eventually burn out. No, this team is winning because they are good. They are wining because they are the best team in the NFC. They are winning because they have great coaching, an excellent running game, and an outstanding defense. And, they are winning because they finally have a quarterback who knows how to run the Gibbs-Saunders offense. Todd Collins is the main difference between early-season close losses and late-season dominance.

Readers know I love Jason Campbell’s future. I think it is bright. I also think it is much brighter today if he incorporates what he learns from watching Collins run the Redskins offense. Again, his injury was a curse and could be a blessing. He would not have had this chance without the injury.

I was optimistic about Collins after I heard the comments from Skins leaders after the Redskins knocked the Bears out of the playoffs. It was Collins first game and it came in relief. Cooley said he was surprised that when he came out of his break and turned to look for the ball, it was already there. The coverage had no chance to make a play on it. Sellers said he was surprised at how quickly Collins releases the ball. The Gibbs-Saunders passing offense is complex. It takes years of study and practice. It is all about spreading the field, reading defenses quickly, going through progressions with receivers, trusting receivers will make the same reads, and getting rid of the ball on time. Campbell will run it well some day. Collins runs it extremely well now.

You cannot argue with success. It’s hard to argue about four straight wins against conference opponents fighting hard for something. It’s hard to argue with an offense that scored an average of 26.25 points per meaningful game when it could only muster 19 points per game before Collins. And, when Collins keeps drives alive, he helps the defense too. The defense is only allowing 13.25 points per game now, when it was giving up 21.42 in the prior twelve. The pre-Collins 5 -7 Skins had an average point differential per game of minus 2.3. The Collins-led 4-0 Skins have an average margin of victory of 13-points per game, which is 60% greater than Dallas’s margin and almost as high as the Patriots’.

Time for a Little Cold Water on the Face, Counter Trey?
Collins is a backup quarterback. How many of those led their teams through the playoffs and into the super Bowl? Hmmmm.

Well, Jim Plunkett was a backup who led the Raiders to victory in Super Bowl XV. He was also the MVP. The Dolphins used a platoon of Woodley and Strock to get to Super Bowl XVII. Doug Williams was Jay Schroeder’s backup and led the Skins to a victory in XXII. He was also the MVP. Jeff Hostetler led the Giants to a victory in XXV in relief of Phil Simms. Kurt Warner started for the injured Trent Green and led the Rams to victory in XXXIV. He also broke Montana’s passing yard record and was named MVP. There are two coincidences in XXXIV: Green was the Skins QB before signing with the Rams, and Al Saunders was a coach of the Rams offense. And, then of course, there was a guy named Tom Brady who led the Patriots to a win in XXXVI after Drew Bledsoe was injured. He was also named MVP.

The history of the Super Bowl would be a lot less interesting without the backup QB.

The Matchup with the Seahawks
We already know about the difficulty of the Redskins schedule and the pathetically easy schedule the Seahawks played this year. What about the strengths of the Seahawks? People say the Hawks have a prolific offense, especially their passing game. How did they achieve their stats?

Well, they exploited the poorest defenses in the NFL. The Seahawks' three division opponents were ranked 21, 22, and 28 against the pass. That's a sum of 71 (out of a maximum 93).

Only Green Bay had an easier division to pass against: 27, 31, and 32 for a sum of 90(out of a maximum 93!!!!). It's no coincidence that Favre had a 95.7 passer rating this year, but when he faced Philly, Washington, and Dallas he had a passer rating of 58.2, 43.5, and 8.4, respectively.

In comparison, the Skins faced division foes with pass Ds ranked 11, 13 and 18 for a 42 total.

The Seahawks' division foes had an overall D ranking that totaled 67 (again, out of 93), while the Skins' division foes had overall D rankings that totaled 26. Six games against this kind of competition--almost 40% of a team's games--can make some team's stats look great.

In addition to division foes, here is a sample of some of the other teams the Seahawks faced with overall D ranking in parentheses: Cincinnati (27), New Orleans (26), Cleveland (30), and Chicago (28).

Exactly half of the Seahawks games were against teams ranked in the bottom 25-percent in total D (i.e. defenses ranked 25 through 32), which gave the Seahawks the schedule with the largest number of games against easy defenses this year.

The Seahawks only played four games against top-10 defenses and averaged 18.75 points per game in those. That’s a little different from the 24.6 PPG I keep reading about. Oh, and the Skins have the eighth-ranked defense in the NFL.

Gibbs
Finally, there is the coaching. Do I have to rehash Gibbs record in games played after November 30? He is the best. Whether we’re talking about Gibbs I or II (I really hate those monikers), he gets his team prepared and he leads them. They respect him and play hard for him and they win. And, given all of the adversity he faced this year, he probably had his best year as a coach in his career.

Grieving Sucks

I have been struggling. I was having difficulty concentrating. I have had little energy.

Maybe it is the culmination of several things, but I think most of all, it is that I am grieving. I had to euthanize my family pet of fifteen years in mid-November. What hit me most was when I realized that my two sons never woke a day on this earth without him. But once the boys got over it, I did too. No, what is hurting me now is how cheated I feel. I keep thinking about how short Sean Taylor’s life was and what a great blow it is to the Redskins.

It has been over a week since Taylor died and I am starting to get some energy back. I watched his funeral on TIVO--correctly guessing it would go overtime--and feel even more cheated. He was a great football player and a good person who let the media define him. The media love negative stories and so they mistook his quiet humbleness for antisocial behavior. They mistook his ferocity on the football field for a gangster mentality. They mistook his attempt to recover property that was stolen from him as hood mentality. They mistook a DUI arrest as a DUI conviction, which never happened.

Why didn’t we know about his deeply felt faith when he was alive? Why didn’t we know about all of the money and time he donated to youth sports programs in his community? Why didn’t we know that everybody on his teams truly loved this guy? Not just Redskins, but all of the Miami players around the NFL. Jeremy Shockey was at the funeral yesterday and was completely broken up. Several Ravens were distraught because they had to play a game last night and would miss his funeral. Ray Lewis cried during the moment of silence. McGahee and Reed huddled with Lewis prior to kickoff to pay tribute (play video)to Taylor and then all three went out and played inspired football and nearly beat the Patriots. McGahee rushed for 138 yards.

Why didn't we know that when the media covered his high school football team, Taylor--who scored 44 touchdowns (a Florida record), rushed for 1300 yeards, made over 200 tackles, and led his team to the Florida HS state championship--didn't want to talk about himself? Instead he gave credit to his teammates and talked about how tough his opponent was.

Why didn’t we know about his Herculean work ethic? Gibbs talked about how he would show up at Redskins Park well in advance of when the players were due and find Sean drenched in sweat because he was running laps around the park. Shannon, Taylor’s DB coach at Miami, talked about how he kept crossing paths with Taylor when giving motivational speeches to youths near Miami in the offseason but how he never ran into him. Then, he saw a note on his desk on campus one day from Taylor and he asked his assistant when Sean left it. She said he works out nearly every day on campus late at night. We hear from Gregg Williams that he would stay late studying film; from Joe Theismann that Sean asked him to stay late so he could tutor Sean on what quarterbacks look for in safety play and how to disguise coverage; from Clinton Portis how he would try to coax Sean to go clubbing at night. Taylor would always say he’d meet Clinton, but tell Clinton the next day that he fell asleep early. We hear from Reed Doughty, who was second string at Sean’s position and so played on the scout team. When Doughty had a mild knee sprain Taylor told him to rest it and Taylor took Doughty’s reps with the scout team after practicing with the starters. Why didn’t we know these things? Because unlike many stars, Taylor didn’t promote himself. Unlike many stars, he avoided the camera. And, so the guys behind the cameras, with limited information, made his story a negative one.

I was going to write a separate post on the outrageous media coverage of his death, but I could barely concentrate. How dare guys like Len Shapiro, Michael Wilbon, Peter King, and Colin Cowherd intimate or downright speculate that Taylor somehow got what was coming to him. Oh, King backpedaled like crazy in this week’s MMQB column, but the one thing King never said was “I am sorry.” On last week’s Inside the NFL show on HBO, King had no problem saying this horseshit: “A friend of a very prominent NFL player that I know said he distanced himself from Taylor...blah, blah, blah.” Of course he was trying to create the impression that Taylor was a bad dude. At least Costas had the good sense to immediately jump in each time after King was finished to say, “We are taping on Tuesday, so we really don’t know the facts.”

By the way, two of those guys have Hall of Fame votes. It's another example of why the NFL should reclaim the privilege to induct its players.

The mayor of Taylor’s hometown, who eulogized so eloquently yesterday, spoke for me:

"One of the things that I hope comes out of this tragedy is that the media get a small lesson in grace and humility," said Florida City mayor Otis Wallace, a friend of the Taylor family. "For those who took the liberty of recklessly speculating that this young man's death was caused by the way he lived, all I can say is they should be ashamed."

Readers of this Blog know how happy I was when the Redskins signed London Fletcher this offseason. Fletcher is a tackling machine with excellent leadership abilities. He spoke for me twice this week. First, about the leadership the Skins wanted to see from him:

'Why'd you need me? You already got a great leader, and it's Sean Taylor,''' Fletcher told SI.com ... "I mean, he loved football. If we were on the sidelines during practice, he'd run out to take some scout-team reps. We're getting beat bad in New England, and he's saying in the huddle, 'I don't care what the score is! Keep playing, keep playing.' Last week, before Thanksgiving, he's in the trainers' room, getting treatment, he's telling everyone in there to have a great Thanksgiving and enjoy the time with their family. That's a leader.''

(Ed note: As I watched that Patriots game I started to get angry that the Redskins weren’t fighting in the fourth quarter as the Pats ran up the score. It was right around that point that Taylor started a fight with Vrabel, the Pats all-everything linebacker, who was playing on kickoff coverage (kickoff coverage!!!!) with the score 52-7. Taylor spoke for me that day.)

Finally, Fletcher also spoke for me when he said this:

"I thought he could have been the best safety in the history of pro football,'' Fletcher said. "He was 6-3, fierce, a hard-hitter, a great cover guy, great speed for a guy his size, great ball skills, incredibly instinctive and had a great passion for the game. Teams didn't challenge him deep. It's no secret why we've given up so many explosive plays in the middle of the field the last two weeks -- it's because Sean wasn't there.''

I still have a hard time choking back tears when I replay this four-minute tribute, which was shown before the Dec. 2 Bills game at Fed Ex Field; there wasn't a dry Redskin-fan eye in the house. The most difficult parts for me are when Taylor runs down the tunnel with Moss and Portis (because it won’t happen again), when he thanks God for getting a chance to play for the Redskins, and when he dives in the end zone in Philadelphia to clinch the Skins only playoff appearance in his short tenure. It is not a highlight film. A highlight film would haven taken hours.

Sean Taylor RIP

“Of all the words of tongue or pen, the saddest are these: It might have been.” –John Greenleaf Whittier

Yesterday I had planned to write my first post in a while. I was going to write that the Redskins playoff hopes were not even close to dead, which many of the pundits had been saying. How could they be dead when they were only one game behind the sixth-seed Lions and the Redskins owned the tie breaker against that team? I was going to write that the main reason for their three heartbreaking losses in a row, starting with the Eagles loss, was the absence of Sean Taylor, but that there was a lot of reason for hope because Taylor would soon be back.

The Redskins had held a 15 - 7 lead late in the game against the Eagles when Taylor sprained his knee, sadly, directly in front of my seats at FedEx Field. I remember watching him as he was resting on his hands and knees on the field long after he finished a tackle and I was thinking, “he’ll be back.” But, Taylor never returned.

Without Taylor to contend with, the Eagles started to exploit the part of the field—the deep middle—that Taylor had vacated. When Taylor was in the game, the Eagles did not even try to go near there. The Eagles scored four TDs and won after Taylor left the game—all of the TD plays went down the middle of the field.

I had planned to write that when Taylor was in the Redskins secondary, Terrell Owens had never even come close to having the kind of game that he had two weeks ago against the Skins. Owens scored all of the Cowboys’ points in that game two weeks ago. A quick search on YouTube would explain why Owens never had success against the Skins before. Taylor owned Owens. That's "owned" with a capital O, as can be seen starting at about 3:15 in this video of 2006 meetings. Owens hates being hit and Taylor was one of the most vicious hitters in the NFL.

Owens feared Taylor. Even when Taylor was a rookie playing his first game against the All-Self-Important Owens, Taylor sent a message. Taylor put Owens on the trainer’s table at 1:35 of this video. Then, on a play going to another receiver far away from Taylor, Owens ran into Taylor’s part of the field and shot off his mouth. The rookie Taylor told Owens to shut his mouth...with his forearm...to Owens’ head (2:15) (In his rookie year Taylor wore number 36 and Owens played for the Eagles). Those two videos only cover 2004 and 2006, but they give a good idea of the kind of player he was. They don't include great plays from the Skins 2005 playoff run and they don't include his performance this year, probably his best. He was not a dirty player, but he did inflict pain.

Immediately after the Eagles loss this year I was going to write about how frustrated I was that Taylor was going to miss his first game this year and that it was going to be the game against Owens. Since the first day of the season I was looking forward to seeing Taylor shut down Owens.

Owens never had a 100-yard game against the Skins when Taylor played and never had more than one TD. In four games over three seasons against a Taylor-led secondary (Owens was suspended for both games against the Skins in 2005) Owens had a total of 18 catches for 165 yards and just two TDs for an average of 4.5 catches, 41.3 yards and 0.5 TDS per game. Not bad, but Owens averages were significantly higher against other teams in those years. And it wasn’t like Owens’ teammates were not trying to get him the ball. It was that Taylor had repeatedly separated the ball from Owens and left him writhing on the ground in pain.

So, yesterday I was going to write that the Redskins were still very much in the thick of it, and because Taylor was expected back in a week or two, that they would make a run.

And, then I heard the news.

I feel terrible about the senselessness of this. This is an absolute tragedy of the kind that Aeschylus and Shakespeare could write: A warrior in the prime of his life, revered by many, who is about to embark on great conquests but is struck down by some fluke just before he realizes greatness.

I feel sadness for his family and friends. But, I did not know him personally, so I cannot feel what they do. What I do feel is this: I feel horrible for me as a huge fan of the Redskins, which is much, much, much, more selfish. I think that Taylor and his family would understand that and would appreciate it. It is homage to him.

What I know is that when he played for the Redskins, they were feared, and that kind of intimidation is extremely valuable in football. What I know is that Sean Taylor was as valuable to the Redskins franchise as Favre is to Green Bay, Owens is to Dallas, Peyton Manning is to Indianapolis, and Hester is to Chicago. People talked about how valuable Deion Sanders was because he took away one half of the field when quarterbacks refused to throw to his side. Well, Taylor was a sideline-to-sideline player who took away the whole field beyond fifteen yards from the line of scrimmage.

How good was Taylor? Gregg Williams was the Assistant Coach or Head Coach in charge of defense on three teams: The Titans (when they went to the super Bowl), the Bills, and now the Redskins. Williams has had the number one defense in his conference several times and had a top-ten defense for the Skins in two of his three seasons here. Over that time he has coached some outstanding defensive players (think about Kearse, Arrington, any of several Redskins Pro Bowlers, and dozens of Titans and Bills Pro Bowlers). After one season of coaching Taylor, Williams unequivocally said that Taylor was the best defensive player he had ever coached.

How athletic was Taylor? Larry Coker, his head coach at the University of Miami, said on today’s Mike and Mike show on ESPN that he recruited Taylor out of High School and couldn’t decide if he was a running back, wide receiver, linebacker, or defensive back; he felt he could play at a high level at any of these positions...for a National Championship team. Running back Clinton Portis said on today's John Thomson Show that when he was at Miami and they were recruiting Taylor he had the opportunity to see Taylor's high school football video where Taylor had played running back. He said he immediately asked, "what position does he want to play here (at Miami)?" When the coaches said "safety" Portis said "Good." Portis was afraid of losing his job.

Sean Taylor was not just a good safety in the NFL. He was a great safety and probably the best. Many have said he was a great safety because he had the size of a linebacker and the speed and cover abilities of a cornerback. And, he had a legendary love of laying the big hit. He not only played at a high level, he made the other ten players on his defense better, which is how the loss of just one player can make that much of a difference. He was just 24 years old, had not yet reached a peak, and had a long, great career ahead of him.

As long as he roamed the Redskins’ secondary, they were going to be very competitive. As a fan, I looked forward with optimism to the future success of the Skins. When the Redskins made the playoffs two years ago, it was a Taylor TD return of a fumble recovery against the Eagles that won it and clinched their playoff appearance. In the next game, in the Redskins only playoff win that year, it was an extremely athletic return of a fumble for a TD against the Bucs that gave the skins an insurmountable lead in what was a close game.

Taylor began his career in the NFL at a high level as a rookie and was getting better every year and every game. Before his minor knee injury three weeks ago against the Eagles, he was leading the NFL in interceptions. He’s still leading the NFC. Fittingly, this year, he handed Brett Favre his milestone, all-time interception record. Six more years of his kind of play and we would probably have been talking about several of the Championships that he helped the Redskins win, and we would have certainly been counting down the days until his induction in Canton.

“…the saddest are these: It might have been.”

God, I am a heartbroken fan today.

Rest in Peace Sean Taylor

No Jansen, No Rogers, No Taylor, No Marcus, No Thomas, No Thrash, No Moss...No Mas

I love it when fans of other NFL teams say that injuries are a part of the game and everyone has to deal with them. They usually only say that when their team has not been decimated by injuries the way the Redskins have. I hate it when even Redskins fans do not understand what this Redskins team is experiencing and instead blame the coaching as if Gibbs were playing right tackle.

The Redskins entered the game without Marcus Washington, a Pro Bowl Linebacker; without Santana Moss, a Pro Bowl receiver who earned the Redskins’ receiving yardage record just two years ago; without the starters on the right side of their offensive line; and without first-round pick and three-year starter Carlos Rogers. Yet, they still held a nine-point lead early in the fourth quarter against the reigning NFC East champs yesterday.

They held a nine-point lead because of their deep bench. Their second and third stringers filling in for the right side of the offensive line were able to open holes for Portis for most of the day and keep pass rushers off of Campbell. When they didn’t open holes for Portis, Portis took it upon himself and exploded around the edge or through tacklers to earn 137 yards rushing, the highest total in the NFL yesterday.

They were able to get and hold that lead because the Eagles were afraid to throw the ball deep down the middle with Sean Taylor playing a deep safety and taking Eagles’ heads off and helping to pick up the slack in the secondary due to the missing Rogers.

They were able to get the lead because their remarkable depth allowed James Thrash to step into Santana Moss’s spot and catch two touchdown passes in addition to making the first two Redskins’ plays that went for 30+ yards this year. Thrash did all that and still made great plays on special teams in punt and kick coverage.

So, it is not that the Redskins do not have depth. They had tremendous depth. The problem is that they have blown through that depth with injuries upon injuries at the same spots—offensive line, wide receiver, and the defensive secondary.

The Redskins lost the game in the fourth quarter. With the Skins winning by nine points, the Eagles outscored the Redskins 20 – 3 over the last 12:36 of the game. Why? Sean Taylor did not play in the fourth quarter because of a knee injury. The Eagles threw three touchdown passes that went right up the middle of the field—the place that they were afraid to throw or run to when Taylor occupied that spot. James Thrash did not play in the fourth quarter because of a knee injury and could not add to his two TD performance. And, the line failed on a couple of occasions to open holes wide enough to get a crucial yard that would have either gotten them in the end zone (Yoder and Portis) or kept drives alive (Sellers) and the Eagles offense off the field.

Redskins’ fans have criticized Gibbs all year for what they deem conservative play calling. Today they are criticizing Gibbs because he ran Portis three times from a first-and-goal at the three in the fourth quarter. These are the same people who criticized Gibbs for not running Portis with a first and goal from the one-yard line against the Giants. I cannot stand arm-chair quarterbacks who have no idea what they are talking about.

You wanted Gibbs to throw the ball there? Okay. Whom is he going to throw to? Moss and Thrash were in the trainer’s room. Randle El was double covered. Cooley had to stay in and help the second and third stringers block. Where was Gibbs going to throw the ball? And you ALL know that if Gibbs called for pass plays in that spot and they failed to score a TD or got called for a false start or holding, you would have said “why didn’t he use Portis when they had the chance? What are we paying Portis $50 million for if he cannot get three yards?” You Gibbs critics know you would have, so please, do us all a favor and shut up.

JC Walks on Water
Jason Campbell played the best game of his career yesterday. It was his sixteenth professional start, which officially gives him one full year of starts. He completed 68% of his passes for three TDs and no INTs, made some beautiful touch passes, and took a huge step forward. The only thing missing from his repertoire now is a few more Favre-like comebacks that end in victory. He has two overtime drives that ended in victory this year and he has come close several times in losses, most recently driving the Skins 61-yards against the Giants to the one-yard line in the final 2:19. A few wins in regulation would go a long way to put the finishing touches on a quarterback who should be a perennial Pro Bowl player.

Where are the Redskins?
With all of the bellyaching from Skins fans, you would think they are in last place. No, last place is where the Eagles reside, which I was happy to remind Eagles’ fan in mid-celebration in the FedEx Field Club Level yesterday. You would think the Redskins were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. No, even the 1 – 8 Rams, who surprisingly blew away the pundit-favorite-for-NFC-champ-Saints, can still make the playoffs. You would think the Redskins had no legitimate shot at the playoffs. No, they are one game back in the loss column from the Giants and Lions, who currently own the last two seeds for the NFC playoffs. Oh, they beat the lions—handily—so all they have to do to knock the Lions out is finish with the same record. Oh, and they have one more game against the Giants, who have a much tougher schedule than the Redskins from here on out.

I would have loved to see the Giants beat the Cowboys yesterday and keep the Skins within two losses of the Brokeback Boys and the NFC East title, but even the fifth seed is better than the seed that eleven other NFC teams will earn this year. Anything can happen in the playoffs, especially when you are as good as the Redskins are and you could be much healthier by January.

Where were the Redskins’ Fans?
How is it possible that at every game that I attend at FedEx Field (six- to eight-per year), I am surrounded by the opposing team’s fans? If you are a Redskins’ fan and you sold your seats to Eagles fans—a division rival—when the Skins are very much in the playoff hunt, you should have your season-tickets privilege revoked. It is bad enough to sell to a Dolphins fan for a Dolphins game, but selling to the most obnoxious fans in the NFL? Dante has reserved a circle for you.

The 2007 NFC East Contenders Strength of Schedule

First a Summary of the Season So Far
Excluding the games played against the NFC East team in question, the following is the combined winning percentage of the opponents of each of the contenders for NFC East (through games played last weekend):

Giants 0.420
Cowboys 0.447
Redskins 0.622

Clearly, the Redskins have had a much tougher schedule than either the Giants or the Cowboys so far.

To date, Redskins opponents have a win percentage differential that is 20.2% greater than the Giants opponents and 17.5% greater than the Cowboys opponents. Annualizing those numbers, the opponents that the Redskins have played to date would finish the year with an average record of 10 – 6; The Cowboys opponents would finish 7 – 9; and the Giants opponents would finish with just under 7 wins. Considering that we are talking about an average, that is a HUGE difference. Imagine if you had a schedule that showed that EVERY week you had to play a team that was 10-6? On average, the Skins have done that, have a winning record, and are within striking distance of the NFC East title.

So what should we expect the rest of the year?
The following shows the strength of each of the NFC East contenders' remaining schedule (excluding the remaining games against each other because if the team in question doesn’t win those games, the rest of its schedule really doesn’t matter):

Giants 0.545
Cowboys 0.512
Redskins 0.356

It is almost a perfect inverse of the strength of schedule so far.

The Redskins are two games back in the loss column from the NFC East title because their NFC East competition has played the softest parts of their schedules already and the Redskins have played one of the most difficult schedules in the NFL in 2007. Now, there will be a reversal of fortunes. I’d say the Redskins are sitting pretty.

Just look at that remaining schedule. If they can get a couple of players back (including an O-lineman), the Redskins will march through the second half and take the NFC East title.

F#&$ing Patriots 52 - Good Guys 7

Okay, take a deep breath Redskins fans. I haven’t posted since the Lions victory, so let me catch up.

The Skins should have beaten the Packers and should have lost to the Cardinals. No net change to their record there. And, the Skins got whupped by the best team in the NFL...right now. The only shame in that was the seeming lack of indignation on the part of some Skins players and possibly coaches, especially on defense. They should have taken some Pats’ heads off.

The F#&$ing Patriots 52 – the Redskins 7
The Pats made an absurdly bad mistake by running it up and trying to humiliate the Skins. I don’t buy what many fans said or what Riggo said on his radio show. Yes, the Redskins should have stopped them. But, it is just plain wrong-—when the Pats were winning 38 to 0 with 12-minutes left in the game-—for Brady and the Pats to go to a spread formation, in shotgun, and throw a 35-yard (in the air) bomb to Moss. Hell, it was just plain wrong for Brady and the rest of the starters to be in the game at that point. You do not do throw passes in that situation in D-1 college football when the final score could be beneficial to your BCS standings, and you certainly do not do that to professionals when the game has already been decided. The Pats scored a TD on that drive to go up 45 to 0, and Brady celebrated the TD as if it came in overtime. But, as they say on late night TV, “wait there’s more.”

The Pats were not content to stop there. Oh, BeliDick showed some mercy. BeliDick pulled Brady at 45 to 0. But, then he proceeded to have the backup QB, Casssel, throw on three of his first four plays...from shotgun formation...with multiple receivers spread out. One of those passes was a 21-yarder...on fourth down...with seven minutes left in the game! They were winning by a score of 45 to 0! Seven minutes!

What a dick.

But, wait there’s more. In that series with the backup QB, there was an incomplete pass. Cameras showed Brady on the sideline whining, begging, cajoling and finally yelling at the referee to call pass interference on the Redskins. In a 45 – 0 game...with seven minutes left. When Cassel scored a TD on another fourth down play, he and Brady did a leaping high five. I’m as competitive as anyone, but who raised these guys, Mephistopheles?

Good luck trying to get through the rest of the season with that huge frickin bull’s-eye on your back, Mr. Brady. You can thank your coach for putting it there and you can thank yourself for making it as big as a frickin house. I’d say good luck in the Super Bowl, but I don’t think your team will get there when you're on crutches and Matt Cassel is the starting QB. Manning will get all of the endorsement money again after another Super Bowl appearance this year. I only regret that your torn knee ligaments won’t be the result of a meeting with Taylor, Landry & Washington, LLP.

Back to the Skins
As I said, take a deep breath. It was only one game and it was one they were supposed to lose. Look, I hate to make predictions about individual games, but if they respond as I think they will, they will easily beat the Jets this weekend. Judging from the number of fans in the stands for this week’s Jets game, it could be like a Redskins home game. With a win, they will then finish the first half of the season with a 5 – 3 record. I do not know one Skins fan who would not have taken that before the season started.

Included in that 5 - 3 record are two games they should have won but lost (Giants and Packers), and one they should have lost but won (Cards). Given that information, they could easily have been 6 – 2 heading into the second half. If you average both of those highly probable outcomes (5 – 3 and 6 – 2) and project that out, they would finish 11-5, just as I had predicted at the beginning of the season. That will be good enough to win the NFC East this year.

How they get to 11 - 5
After the win over the Dolphins, I wrote a post in which I broke their schedule into three groups to estimate their potential wins. One was a group of five games in which I said that in order to get to 11 – 5, they had to win three. The five games included the Giants (H/A), Lions, Cards, and Packers. Well, they have two wins in four of those with one game left (Giants (A)), so they are on track to accomplish what I expected against this group.

Summary for ungrouped game:
Dolphins W

Summary for Group A (need win against Giants plus Groups B & C outcomes for 11 wins):
Giants L
Lions W
Cards W
@Packers L
@ Giants TBD

For the second group, I conceded that they had four tough games: the Bears, Pats, and two against the Cowboys. To get to 11 – 5, I said they would need to split these four. That’s no easy task; especially since they have already lost one (Pats) and now have to win two out of the remaining three. But, the Bears are not nearly as good as I thought they would be, so a split with the Cowboys and a win over the Bears in DC on 12/6 gets them where they need to be to earn eleven wins. So far, so good.

Summary for Group B (need a 2 – 2 record for 11 wins):
@Pats L
@ Cowboys TBD
Bears TBD
Cowboys TBD

In the final group, which consisted of six games, I said they would need to split with the Eagles and sweep the Jets, Bucs, Bills, and Vikings. Well, they have already earned at least a split with the Eagles by beating them in Philadelphia. The next Eagles game is 11/11 in DC, and the first of the four games that seemed very winnable at the beginning of the year is coming up on Sunday against the Jets. But, the Bucs at 4 - 4 and the Bills at 3 – 4 are playing better football than I expected. Here is where we might find a chink in the armor, especially since four of the six are on the road. Still, the Bucs did lose to the Lions, a team the Skins crushed, and the Skins get to play the Bills in DC.

Summary for Group C (need 5 -1 record for 11 wins):
@ Philadelphia W
@ NJ Jets TBD
Eagles TBD
@ Bucs TBD
Bills TBD
@ Vikings TBD

Given this framework, I think there are three key games that will decide whether they win the division, win a wild card, or go home for the playoffs. First, if they can find a way to sweep the Cowboys and not settle for a split, they are practically a lock for the division title. The second key game is against the Giants, although for reasons that I will make clear in a minute, that game is not as important as a second win against the Cowboys. The final key outcome will be whether they can win against the Eagles in DC and not have to settle for a split. It should be no surprise that I think the remaining games against division opponents are the most important.

A win against the Eagles will give them a cushion that I did not expect them to have at the beginning of the year. A win against them allows them to lose a game that I expected them to win, say the Bucs game, and still get to eleven wins. A sweep of the Cowboys gives the Redskins the tie breakers against them for the NFC East title. But, a win against the Giants just gets them to fulfill what I expected at the beginning of the year for the Group A games. I do not think they will need the series-sweep tie breaker against the Giants. It may seem crazy to say this about a Giants team that is currently 6- 2, but the Giants could conceivably lose six of their last eight games.

And I am not saying this just because the Giants have gotten off to fast starts in the past two years and then faded. I am not trying to reprise the prediction that I made last year after their hot start; a prediction that turned out to be correct. No, I am saying this because the extremely soft spot in the Giants schedule is behind them. The combined record of the Giants last four opponents is 4 wins and 26 losses. You can look it up. It gets much more difficult for the Giants from here.

Seriously, the Giants could easily lose each of the following games: Dallas, at Detroit, at Chicago, at Philadelphia, Washington, and New England. If they play way over their abilities and go 3 – 3 in these six tough games and sweep the Bills and Vikings, they will finish the year 11 – 5, but they will still miss out on the division title if two of those losses come against Washington, Dallas or Philadelphia. Why? The Giants would be 3 – 3 in the division. The Redskins or Cowboys would have a better division record and take that tie-breaker.

The Cowboys play five of their last eight games against division opponents, which are always tough games no matter what the teams’ records look like. In addition, they have to play Green Bay in Dallas and the Lions in Detroit. Say what you want, but the Packers (6-1) and Lions (5-2) just keep winning, so these are no gimmes despite the fact that the Skins trounced the Lions and should have beaten the Packers. Dallas’s five division games include two against Washington, and the last game of the year—which could decide everything—is in DC.

Given my three-part schedule breakdown, then, the Skins have some flexibility. Wins over Philadelphia, NJ Giants, and one win over Dallas along with the other outcomes that are likely and the Redskins are assured of a wild card spot and probably the division title at 11 – 5. A sweep of Dallas and they can take their 12 - 4 record to a bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. A split with Dallas and a loss to the Giants and Eagles leaves them at 9-7 (Ed: corrected a prior calculation error) and a wild card berth. The only really bad scenarios would be the latter one coupled with an unexpected loss to the likes of the Bucs, Jets, Bills, or Vikings. Even then they likely make the playoffs at 8 – 8, given the state of the NFC. Two unexpected losses and they’re likely out.

So, only two unexpected losses will keep them out of the playoffs. Take a deep breath Skins fans. With one caveat, the Redskins are a playoff team.

The Only Caveat
When will the injuries stop? C, RG, ROT1, ROT2, ROT3, SSLB, WSLB, RC, HB1, KR, WR1, and WR2 have all missed significant playing time this year. ROT1 and RC have been IR’d and RG will be IR’d if they are eliminated from playoff contention. Please make it stop. Seriously, it is statistically crazy for one team to have this many injuries two years in a row.

“High-Powered” Redskins Win 34 - 3 “Shootout” vs. Lions

If I had to hear one more time about the Lions “high-powered” offense in another pre-game show, or read it in another newspaper, I would have burst a blood vessel. If I had a buck for every analyst who said the Redskins could only win this game in a shootout if they could just manage to stay close, I’d be a lot wealthier today. No one wanted to talk about the quality of the Redskins yesterday. They only wanted to talk about the quality of the Lions.

The D
Well, well, well. For two and half games the Redskin defense had been as dominating as I expected, but all of the naysayers came out after the loss to the Giants and concluded that the Skins’ D was not as good as it appeared in the first two wins. What game were they watching?

The Redskins defense spent most of the second half on the field against the Giants because the Redskins offense only got one first down prior to their last possession. Their first three possessions in the second half were threes-and-out. The Giants did not expose a flaw in the Skins’ D, they exposed the growing pangs that the Redskins had to go through with a quarterback who only had nine starts under his belt. But yesterday, clearly, the Redskins proved that they do have a dominating defense, maybe the best in the Conference, and they may have proved that Jason Campbell is all grown up.

The Lions came into the game with the NFL’s top-rated passing offense. They were averaging 313 yards per game in the air and were scoring 28.5 points per game. Yesterday, the Redskin defense held the Lions to 76-yards passing (144 overall) and three points. They sacked Kitna five times including one for a safety. They forced four fumbles, but the Lions miraculously managed to recover every one of them including one in which the call on the field was that the Redskins’ Rocky McIntosh recovered the fumble. The turnover was overturned on replay when the ball was ruled out of bounds on the old “electricity” rule. The ball was in bounds, but leaning against McIntosh’s leg when McIntosh’s hand was out of bounds. There were also some penalties that erased big Redskins plays. The score was not as close as the scoreboard suggested.

On top of it all, Sean Taylor and LaRon Landry kept knocking Lions players out of the game with punishing hits. Look for Taylor’s block on James Thrash’s big punt return on ESPN tonight.

So, with one-quarter of the season completed, let’s recap the defensive effort for the season using the notion that if the defense keeps the other team out of the end zone, they have pitched a shutout.

The D gave up one touchdown in the first game against the Dolphins when the Dolphins—down by three-points with four seconds left in the first half—went for a TD on fourth down from the five yard line. If there were 1000 chances to call a play in that spot, professional football coaches would call for the field goal unit 999 times out of 1000. That was a virtual shutout for the D and I am counting it as a shutout.

It was a veritable shutout for the D the next week versus the Eagles in Philadelphia when they kept the Eagles out of the end zone. By the way, the Eagles found the end zone EIGHT times the following week.

The D recorded a shutout in the first half against the Giants when the Redskins moved the ball on offense. Then the Giants scored three TDs in the second half.

Finally, The D recorded a shutout yesterday. That’s fourteen shutout quarters in sixteen quarters of football.

Championship Depth
The team has been decimated by injuries but has proved that it has a lot of depth; championship-quality depth. Their number one wide receiver Santana Moss did not play yesterday. Antwaan Randle El took over the number one spot and caught seven passes for 100 yards in the first half. He injured his leg late in the first half and did not return. James Thrash then became the number one wide receiver, followed by Keenan McCardell whom they signed on Monday and Reche Caldwell whom they signed last week. It did not matter one bit as Campbell continued to show great poise and check down to whoever was open.

Campbell had time to check down because he was not sacked and was hardly ever hurried. He was protected despite missing two starters on the right side of the offensive line and having a third O-line starter who just joined the team on August 24. That’s depth.

JC
Campbell easily had his best day as a pro completing over 79% of his passes for an 8.6 yards per attempt average, with two TDs and no picks. But it wasn’t his numbers but his sound judgment that impresses the most. He was almost flawless yesterday, and after the Giants game he showed the leadership of a veteran when he told everyone to calm down because they were 2 - 1 and in great shape. Maybe I underestimated him and how long it would take him to be a top QB in this league. I did not expect him to have the type of game like he had yesterday until week ten or so. That would have coincided with his sixteenth start, or one full year of games. Maybe he has already arrived. If so, my eleven-win prediction is too low. They already have the defense and running game for a deep run in the playoffs. If Campbell has already arrived, then we should expect home field throughout the playoffs.

Another Unbiased, Level-Headed, Hall of Fame Voter

The guy who wrote the attached quote wrote it in his weekly column ranking the teams in the NFL. He also gets to vote for Hall of Fame inductees. Can you guess who it is? Do you think he voted to induct any Redskins players recently?

Maybe the Commish should evaluate whether his league has the optimal HOF voting process.

"Here come the screams, from Alexandria to Bethesda. Hey, punk! Titans go up one on their bye, Jags go up two, Skins go down two. Damn unfair, two? Well, Dan Snyder started it. He called me all those names, and in front of witnesses yet."

The New York Freds: 21 Straight Years of Futility and Counting

Julio Down by the Ball Yard and Other Random Mets Adventures
As I watched Jorge Julio of the Rockies do his best to try to lose the Playoff for the Wild Card spot last night, I was reminded that Julio was the guy the Mets just had to have last year. So they traded away a top, veteran starting pitcher, Kris Benson, to get him. Benson was as good a number three starting pitcher as there was in Major League Baseball—a valuable player—and the Mets gave him away for nothing plus an unproven John Maine. They sure could have used Benson last year…and this year for that matter. I know he was hurt this year, but you don’t know what would have happened if the Mets had kept him. It couldn’t have been worse than trading him away.

I was then reminded that the Mets dumped Julio like a hot tamale after only a few months in a trade for a pitcher the Rockies were only too happy to get rid of themselves. That pitcher was Orlando Hernandez, a sixty-two year old Cuban player prone to breakdowns. Orlando was hurt a lot of this year and only managed to pitch 148 innings.

Orlando, it turns out, was the guy who replaced Steve Trachsel in the rotation. Steve Trachsel needed to be replaced because Willie Randolph could not stand him. Oh, Willie didn’t have a problem with his ability to pitch, at least he shouldn’t have. Trachsel was with the Mets for six years and was the team leader in wins in four of the five years that he was healthy. The only healthy year in which he didn’t lead the team in wins was 2002 when he finished with two fewer wins than Al Leiter. No, the reason Willie could not stand Trachsel was personal, and so the Mets did what was best for Willie and not what was best for the ball club. Trachsel, by the way, averaged 184 innings per year and allowed the bullpen to rest. Do you think the bullpen could have used a little rest this year?

Are you getting the sense that no one is in charge here? That there is no direction; no strategy for winning; no plan?

The 2007 Freds
Until now, I avoided writing about the 2007 New York Mets because I did not want my negative feelings about this team to bring me down. But, now I need a catharsis. For today at least, I am going to identify this team by their true name—the Freds—because this joke of a team is the culmination of twenty-seven years of Fred Wilpon’s ownership. Many things have changed over the past twenty-seven years. GMs came and went—Cashen, Harazin, McIlvaine, Phillips, Duquette, and now Minaya. Managers cycled through--too many to count. Players appeared and disappeared. Two things remain the same: the Wilpons still own the team and the Mets still fail to win World Series championships; twenty-one straight years and counting.

This 2007 team is Fred’s team. Each of the teams that blew pennants (1988, 1999 and 2006), blew World Series championships (2000), or more likely didn’t make the playoffs in the past 27 years (1980-1985 plus 1987 plus 1989-1998 plus 2001-2005 plus 2007), they were Fred’s teams, too. Four playoff runs with only one championship in twenty-seven years of ownership is pathetic for a major market team with no salary cap. It is arguable that half of the playoff runs would never have materialized if Nelson Doubleday was not an equal partner with Wilpon in those years. You may recall that Wilpon did his best to veto Doubleday’s trade for Piazza, who put the team on his shoulders for the run to the NLCS in 1999 and the pennant in 2000.

Fred Wilpon is a sophisticated businessman who is known for his real estate acumen, but when it comes to baseball, Fred is about as sophisticated as Fred Flintstone. Mr. Met never made sense as a mascot for the New York Metropolitans, but then again what does represent a Metropolitan? No, the perfect mascot for the Freds would be Fred Flintstone or a GEICO caveman.

Instead of cheering “Lets Go Mets,” we could cheer “Yabba Dabba Doo.” Whenever another Mets reliever blows a save, the Freds could blare Barney Rubble’s laugh over the loudspeakers. The bullpen car could be the Flintstone mobile powered by Rick Peterson’s feet. Whenever a Fred managed to reach home, Dino could be there to pounce on him. All of the ball girls could be called Hanna or Barbera. Ann Margrock could sing the national anthem while Stoney Curtis threw out the first pitch. With any foresight, they would have been the team to draft Chris Young out of Prinstone Univerity instead of the Pirates.

What the hell, Green already tracks down flies in right field like he’s wearing stone shoes, and Jeff Wilpon looks and acts like the Great Gazoo; inventing the doomsday machine (which he used this September) and floating around the team calling everyone dum-dums.











Let’s review: Last year at around this time I wrote that the 2007 Freds would be in trouble unless they addressed several deficiencies. Specifically, I said the Freds needed to do the following:

• Obtain two starting corner outfielders who could play defense. They needed to replace the aging, plodding, or always-hurt Green and Floyd;
• Obtain a starting second baseman;
• Obtain a pitcher worthy to be called a “number one” starting pitcher; and
• Keep the bullpen intact;

So what did the Fred do? The Fred went out and replaced Floyd with another ancient outfielder who had trouble staying in the lineup. Don’t get me wrong, Alou is a great hitter, but baseball players need to do more than that. One thing they have to do in order to help their team win is be healthy enough to play, but that’s often tough for forty year olds. The Fred also kept Green, whose first name is Itdropsinfrontof. Or was that Itsoverthegloveof? The Fred also failed to get a number one starting pitcher.

Okay, failing to acquire ALL of the players they needed, players that many other teams were also looking to acquire, is one thing. I wouldn’t have paid Zito all of that money either. But, not acquiring anything on this list by the start of the season and only getting their second baseman at the trading deadline, and then only because of an injury to Valentin? Come on. What's worse is not only did they fail to do the easy thing and keep the bullpen intact, they completely dismantled it.

I guess they thought that the bullpen was made of interchangeable parts and that they could just stick anyone out there. They let Chad Bradford walk when $3.5mm per year could have kept him. Because of his ability to get ground balls, Bradford has been one of the most effective relievers in MLB since he first made an MLB roster. He earned an entire chapter in Lewis’s book “Moneyball.” Bradford has a submarine delivery, so they replaced him with a sidearmer named Joe Smith. Who? I guess they figured they could get any unorthodox pitcher and get the same results. Really, none of it made any sense. It was as if they had absolutely no plan.

Goals Schmoals
I’m sure that I was not the only one who saw these deficiencies, so what does this say about the front office? Are they completely incompetent or is winning championships just not a priority? After twenty-seven years, I believe it is the latter. I think the Wilpons could care less about championships. Last year, when a championship should have been the only goal, the Fred lowered the bar and said he hoped the team would just make the playoffs. This year his goal was again to just “get into the playoffs…and do it the Mets way.” Huh? What the hell kind of goal is that? I don’t think Steinbrenner is sitting in Tampa over the winter saying: “Gee, I hope we can win enough games to squeak into the playoffs.”

Well, the Freds blew it this year because their starting pitching was horrible in the second half led by sub-par second halves from Perez and Maine. Each of the Freds starters saw their ERAs go up in their last ten outings. They blew it because of the disappearance of Martinez until mid-September, the disappearance of Glavine after his 300th, and Orlando Hernandez’s Alzheimer’s.

As I said last year, the Freds could probably expect that one or two back-of-the-rotation starters would emerge from the group of Maine, Perez, Humber, and Pelfry, and two back-of-the-rotation starters is exactly what they got. They got exactly what they should have expected from Glavine. Martinez pitched way above expectations when he finally showed up, but he wasn’t Pedro; he is no longer a legitimate number one starter. They should not have expected more. They also blew it because the bullpen sucked. If anyone was paying attention, they would have known it was going to suck.

Baseball's Biggest Joke/Laughing with Conan
So, the Freds are now Major League Baseball’s biggest joke after setting an all-time choking record by blowing a seven-game lead with seventeen to play. Conan O’Brien has had a running gag for several nights where Mr. Met tries to commit suicide but cannot find a noose or oven door big enough for his head. His stubby fingers cannot load a revolver. He comes home from an away game to find Mrs. Met in bed with the Philly Phanatic. It’s good stuff. But, honestly, the Freds should be congratulated for ever owning a seven-game lead with all of their shortcomings.

Wallpapering Citi Field
So, what was Fred Wilpon thinking this year? Perhaps he was too busy counting the revenue from his new cable channel and season-ticket suckers (um, holders). Perhaps he was deciding what color wallpaper to put in the bathrooms at Citi Field. Or, perhaps he got exactly what he aimed for. Yabba Dabba Doo.

Today, I received an email from the Freds apologizing for the team’s collapse. After thanking the fans for “record-breaking revenue” (er, “support”), the Freds said:

“…Ownership will continue its commitment in providing the resources necessary to field a championship team.”

That is exactly what I was afraid of, a continuation of the same commitment of the last twenty-seven years. Hey Gazoo, do I look like a dum-dum?

Protest
I will not subscribe for season tickets again until the Fred sells the team. You should not buy season tickets from the Fred either. It’s a simple plan to help bring a World Series championship back to New York National League baseball by getting rid of what stands in the way-—the owners.

It’s so simple, a caveman could do it. Don’t even give fifteen minutes to the Fred even if he promises to save you fifteen percent on tickets.

It is time for the Fred to sell the team.