From Inflection Point to Bandwagon in Less Than a Week

Wow, who would have thought that the Redskins would be media darlings this soon after passing the inflection point.

Sean Salisbury on the Redskins versus Giants on ESPN Sportscenter this morning (I paraphrase):

The Redskins will win this game because their strength is on defense and the Giants is on offense. Weaknesses: the Redskins have none. The Giants are weak on defense.

Joel Magaraci, writer for the Newark Star Ledger (largest circulation in NJ), who is normally a Giants Homer and Redskins detractor:

...I'm going with the hard facts and they tell me the Redskins are the better team. The Redskins can beat you in so many ways. Offensively, they can trample you on the ground with Clinton Portis, or attack you through the air with QB Mark Brunell and WR Santana Moss. And defensively, they are second to none.

He surprised me.


From the DC Examiner, a list of changes of opinion:

A Different Tune
Media Darlings
By JOHN KEIM

Examiner Staff Writer

ASHBURN - ... The national media, including TV analysts, have swung towards the Redskins, who are becoming one of the fashionable teams in the NFL.

...Sports Illustrated’s Peter King, and FOX Sports have them as the seventh best team in the NFL. The Sporting News senior NFL writer Paul Attner wrote, “[Coach Joe] Gibbs has them in playoff contention, and who would have thought that?”

Apparently, before the season, very few people. Gibbs is now the target of we-were-wrong stories when it comes to sticking with Mark Brunell. So said King and FOX analyst Terry Bradshaw. Not that the players cared then, or now...

...The Redskins see themselves as a team of castoffs, players who few teams wanted, especially on defense. It keeps them grounded.

“We’re an underdog-type team,” safety Ryan Clark said, “and we’re trying to revel in that and not get too high now that people are actually rooting for us.”

One TV analyst is sticking by his lofty prediction. Joe Theismann, of course, picked them to reach the Super Bowl.

“[People] thought I was being a homer,” Theismann said. “Sean Salisbury thought I was the biggest idiot in the world for picking them. He said something about how he would walk from Dallas to New York naked if they did it. I’m going to hold him to it.” (Ed. Note: That is the same Salisbury who now says the Redskins do not have any weaknesses).

And the number one reason why the bandwagon is likely to get more passengers is Joe Gibbs will not let his players believe the hype; he never did before:

"Gibbs has been around too long to know what could happen with a couple losses...You get talked up one day and talked down the next,” Gibbs said. “It can go in a hurry. This week, if things don’t go well, I know what’s coming.”

Our Liberal Intellectuals

Leonard DiCaprio talking about global warming is a lot like Tom Cruise talking about postpartum depression. Cruise says postpartum depression does not exist when science proves that it does, and DiCaprio says global warming (in the humans-are-destroying-the-earth sense) exists, but he (and actual scientists) cannot offer proof of it. These are the great thinkers of our age as presented in the court of Oprah.

DiCAPRIO TAKES GLOBAL WARMING WARNING TO TV

LEONARDO DiCAPRIO joined environmentalists to give Americans a pre-Hallowe'en scare on OPRAH WINFREY's chat show in the US yesterday (27OCT05), when he warned about the dangers of global warming.

The TITANIC star presented a segment from a politically-charged new documentary, called GLOBAL WARMING, which he narrates, and explained he felt the last year's hurricanes and tsunamis are just a terrifying warning of what is to come.

DiCaprio and DR MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, a professor at Princeton University, attempted to explain the "complicated issue" of global warming, emphasising that America, which boasts five per cent of the world's population, produces 25 per cent of the globe's carbon emissions.

The actor stated, "Global warming is not only the number one environmental issue that we're facing today, but one of the most important issues facing all of humanity.

"We're in a situation right now where we're basically emitting too much of this carbon pollution from our cars and our electric power plants that burn coal into the atmosphere, and it's causing our planet to heat up."

Winfrey listened intently as DiCaprio warned about the dangers of ignoring the problem, and then said, "You feel like NOAH (biblical character who built an arc in preparation for a great flood) to me - you're like, 'Pay attention, pay attention, pay attention.'"

Winfrey then confessed she owns one of the five worst sports utility vehicles on a new emissions list, prompting DiCaprio to state, "That's OK, as long as you change that."

The Inflection Point

In mathematics, an inflection point occurs when the second derivative of a function changes signs. In the world around us, an inflection point occurs when things begin to change—things accelerate or decelerate.

For example, a business you own might be making money, but an inflection point is reached when it makes more (or less) today than it did in the last period. Another example is found in motion like the motion of an automobile. A car might have been moving forward all along, but it reaches an inflection point when it accelerates or decelerates. It no longer moves forward at the same rate that it did.

A final example can be found in the outcome of games played by particular sports teams. A team with an overall losing record might enter a stretch where it loses fewer games than it did before.

Inflection points signify change, but are often difficult to recognize, especially from certain vantage points. A person on a street can see a car in the distance moving forward, but from a specific vantage point might not be able to tell whether it is speeding up or slowing down. Fans of a particular sports team might have no interest in recognizing an inflection point in an opposing team when the opponent is changing from a loser into a winner.

The Washington Redskins have failed to make the playoffs in every year but one since Joe Gibbs retired thirteen years ago, but they have reached and moved passed an inflection point. Some may argue that the inflection point was reached last January when Gibbs unexpectedly came back to coach and it's hard to disagree; the Redskins did, after all, lose fewer games after Gibbs took over in 2004 than they did the year before and no one should doubt Gibbs’s Hall-of-Fame credentials. But, although with a leader like Gibbs it was inevitable, I think the inflection point was reached some time in the second half of 2004 when Gibbs’s philosophy started to resonate with the players.

At the end of the day, the players have to translate their talent and their coaches’ philosophy into wins. The Redskins finished 2004 with three wins in their last five games and I think that was the inflection point for this team, especially when the two losses were by three points each and the games could have easily gone the other way. It was a lot like 1981, when the Redskins started 0 – 5 and finished with eight wins in their last eleven games. Game six of the 1981 season was the inflection point that signified the change in the team that led to a Super Bowl title in 1982.

The Detroit Free Press Recognizes an Inflection Point

Michael Rosenberg, sports columnist for the Detroit Free Press, wrote an interesting piece yesterday. Detroit is the site for this year’s Super bowl (XL), which explains his interest:

"…That's why the Colts remain an easy pick for this week's Corian Set-In-Stone Super Bowl XL matchup: Colts vs. Redskins.

The Redskins just whipped the Division I-AA San Francisco 49ers to move to 4-2. If Washington actually makes the Super Bowl, Joe Gibbs might just go down as the greatest coach in the history of the game.

Think about it. Gibbs already won Super Bowls with Joe Theismann, Doug Williams and Mark Rypien at quarterback. He then spent a decade as a NASCAR owner, and he is supposed to be a pretty good one…

…Now, just to amuse himself, Gibbs is trying to make the Super Bowl with Mark Brunell as quarterback. If Gibbs succeeds, he'll cut Brunell and sign Screech from "Saved By The Bell." The man is all about challenges, and you have to respect that..."

It always starts with humor by folks who are a little afraid to go out on a limb. Yet, slowly but surely, people are starting to recognize that Gibbs has created an inflection point.

How Good are the Redskins II?

Last week, I used the Indianapolis Colts as a benchmark. I compared the Redskins with the Colts because the Colts are considered the class of the NFL by several experts and “power” rankings. I update some data here.

Last Week:
Colts Offense: 10th
Skins Offense: 6th
Edge: Redskins

Colts Defense: 11th
Skins Defense: 5th
Edge: Redskins


Now:
Colts Offense: 8th
Skins Offense: 2nd
Edge: Redskins

Colts Defense: 6th
Skins Defense: 4th
Edge: Redskins

Both teams improved, but the Redskins are still better statistically in offensive- and defensive-yards.

Critics will say that the Redskins just played the 49ers and that skews the numbers, but the Colts played the 49ers three weeks ago. And, the Colts also played the Rams, Texans, and Browns already, so four of their seven games have been against some pretty bad teams.

The Redskins have played a much tougher schedule, including three games against first-place teams --in the NFC North (Bears), NFC West (Seahawks), and AFC West (Broncos)--and one game against a second-place team in the AFC West (Chiefs). They also played a game against the team that began the week in first-place in the NFC East (Cowboys).

Interestingly, the Skins have only mustered a tenth-place ranking on CBS Sportsline. CBS has the Seahawks ahead of the Skins at ninth-place even though the Skins beat them. Meanwhile, ESPN has the Skins ranked fourteenth and the Seahawks fifth.

Okay, so let me get this straight. The Redskins have played, if not the toughest schedule in the NFL then one of the five toughest schedules in the NFL; their average combined ranking on offense and defense is 3 (second on offense and fourth on defense), which is best in the NFL and the next closest team's average is 5.5; and ESPN still ranks a team that the Skins beat (Seahawks), a team that is 30th in defense (Giants), a team with a 0.500 record (Patriots), and a team with a losing record (Chargers) ahead of the Skins? I guess this is why there is horse racing.

The Skins tough schedule continues this week. In their next three games they play the team tied for first in the NFC East (Giants), last year’s NFC Champion (Eagles), and the team in first-place in the NFC South (Bucs).

On the bright side: When the playoffs start, they will have been battle tested and that will help them win in the playoffs; playoff wins are more important than a subjective ranking.

My Mistake

I should have predicted that the Redskins would score 52, not 42. I'll try harder next time.

To everyone that posted on this blog, or on Extremeskins.com that I was "crazy," and "insane" and the "Colts could only score 28 against the Niners, so the Skins couldn't score that many," you were wrong.

I haven't seen that kind of dominating performance since...well, since Joe Gibbs was coach.




One of the most beautifully thrown passes that I've ever seen was caught by Santana Moss right in front of my seats at FedEx. Given how fast moss was running and how closely he was covered, Brunell had about a six- to twelve-inch window through which he had to throw the ball from 40-yards away. Brunell hit moss right on the hands and between the numbers and Moss didn't break stride.

Chris Matthews Lays Out the Facts

Chris Matthews was on MSLSD five minutes ago and alerted the world to two new “facts” as he called them.

First, he said it is a fact that someone in the White House decided they were going to punish Wilson for contradicting the White House’s case for war with Iraq. He later corrected himself and said “I don't want to get in trouble so let me say it appears it’s a fact.” Okay, so Matthews assumes it appears to be a fact. That's kind of like a penumbra of an emanation of a fact.

Second, he said it’s a fact that Valerie Plame was a covert agent. Really? The main stream press gets all of the scoops.

Let's not forget that this whole mess was built on top of a pile of crap from Joe Wilson's ass. Tigerhawk sorts through the mess.

Which General are You?

Hat tip to Sluggo Needs A Nap

It turns out that I would have drawn and quartered Mel Gibson, too. I am most like: King Edward I

You scored
61 Wisdom;
77 Tactics;
55 Guts; and
53 Ruthlessness!

Or rather, King Edward the Longshanks if you've seen Braveheart. You, like Edward, are incredibly smart and shrewd, but you win at any costs.... William Wallace died at his hands after a fierce Scottish rebellion against his reign. Despite his reputation though, Longshanks had the best interests of his people at heart. But God help you if you got on his bad side.

My test tracked 4 variables How you compared to other people your age and gender:

You scored higher than 30% on Unorthodox

You scored higher than 75% on Tactics

You scored higher than 48% on Guts

You scored higher than 75% on Ruthlessness

I must admit, I didn't think of myself as ruthless, but when the question put me in situations that required me to risk lives in order to achieve victory, I answered that I would risk lives. Everyone in a military uniform is in that uniform voluntarily and they understand that the risks are immense. That is why we call them brave; they know the risks but still choose to accept them. Once a country is in a war, a complete victory is the only option and that is what we should demand of our generals.

Take the test here.

Redskins vs. 49ers Preview

Despite a minus eight in turnover differential, the Redskins hold on to the ball almost six minutes longer per game than their opponents (32:55 vs. 27:05). Washington is fifth in the NFL in time of possession.

The 49ers have given the ball away seventeen times--seven giveaways more than the Redskins--and have held the ball eleven minutes less than their opponents per game (24:23 vs. 35:47). San Francisco is dead last in the NFL in time of possession.

The Redskins convert 46.2% of their third downs and sustain drives. They are third in the NFL in this category.

The 49ers convert 29.8% of their third downs. That is, they punt 70% of the time that they fail to get ten yards in the first two downs. They are thirtieth in the NFL in this category.

The only question in this game is: How many points can the 49ers score in the ten or so minutes that they will possess the ball?

Prediction:
Time of Possession:
Redskins: 45:00
49ers: 15:00

Score:
Redskins 42
49ers 0

Legal disclaimer: Counter Trey predictions should not be used for gambling purposes. If you gamble, gamble responsibly and drink.

Which NFL Team is the Best?

At this point in the NFL season, when teams have played five or six games, we get a sense of how the season is shaping up.

There are numerous rankings of the best NFL teams. ESPN, for example has its Power Rankings which place the Colts at the top of the league. I don’t think too many people would argue that the Colts are the class of the league right now, but there are fans of the Broncos, Bengals, Bucs, and even the Steelers who could probably make an argument without sounding loony.

So, how do the Redskins stack up against the Colts?

Colts Offense:
The powerhouse Colts are 10th in the NFL in offense based on the standard used by the NFL—yards per game. They gain 339.8 yards per game.

The Commander of their offense is Peyton Manning, whom many consider the best quarterback in the league. Manning’s QB rating is 96.1. He has 118 completions in177 attempts with 1314 yards, 9 TDs and 4 INTs.

Manning’s main target is Marvin Harrison who has caught 30 passes for 333 yards (10.9 avg) and 4 TDs.

The Colts running back is Edgerrin James, who leads the AFC in rushing with 662 yards in 142 attempts with a 4.7 average and 5 TDs.

Redskins Offense:
The Redskins are 6th in the NFL at 373.2 yards per game. That is not a typo. The Redskins gain 33.4 more yards per game than the Colts.

Mark Brunell’s rating is 91.5. He is 103 for 178 with 1240 yards, 9 TDs and 2 INTs. That is correct; Brunell has as many TDs as Manning with half the picks.

Brunell’s main target is Santana Moss who has caught 33 passes for 631 yards (19.1 avg) and 4 TDs. So, Moss is having far and away a better year at wide receiver than Harrison; he almost laps Harrison in yards per catch.

The Redskins hand the ball off to Clinton Portis who has 443 yards on 104 carries and a 4.3 average with no TDs. Edge goes to James, but overall the Redskins use more running backs and gain 127 yards per game on the ground; the colts only gain 123.2 rushing yards per game.

Defense:
The Colts are 11th in the league and give up 300.5 yards per game.

The Redskins are 5th in the league and give up 280.4.

So, overall the difference between the Colts and the Redskins is not that great. In fact, one might wonder whether the Colts are better than the Redskins given that the Redskins stats are mostly better than the Colts. So what is the difference?

For starters, the Colts score 25.2 points per game and the Redskins only score 16.6. The Colts defense gives up 9.5 points per game and the Redskins give up 17.2. Basically, the Colts travel 13.6 yards for every point they score, but the Redskins have to travel 21.7 yards per point. That difference might not sound like much, but it is. The Redskins have to work 60% harder than the Colts for every point they score.

The reason for the extra work is the Redskins’ defense's inability to get turnovers and shorten the field for the offense. The Colts have 14 takeaways in 6 games for a 2.33 per game average; the Redskins only have 2 takeaways for a 0.4 average.

The Colts defense makes their opponents travel 31.6 yards per point. The Redskins defense makes their opponent travel 16.3 yards per point, so it’s twice as hard to score on the Colts. Takeaways make most of the difference here too because the opponent’s yards are wasted when they turn over the ball.

The Redskins are -8 in turnovers and the colts are +8. The Redskins could be better than the Colts if they could find a way to get the ball.

ABC's Boston Liberal, er Legal

I like Boston Legal because I can usually ignore the liberal BS that you hear on network television prime-time shows (and on network news), but last night's episode of Boston Legal takes the cake.

First of all, the only purported conservative character on the show (Denny Crane, played by William Shatner) has Alzheimer’s disease and is regularly shown to be a lovable idiot--with an emphasis on idiot. Last night, though, Denny's idiocy reached new heights with Denny literally fishing in a city sewer; wearing an eighteenth century minuteman uniform during closing arguments in a court room while his liberal colleagues buried their heads in embarrassment every time he defended the right to bear arms; and with Denny copying a colleague's closing arguments in a completely unrelated case because he didn't think he'd be able to write or remember his own.

Second, the only law enforcement officer portrayed in the episode was ridiculed on the witness stand for not thoroughly investigating a murder and not telling the “whole truth.”

But, the kicker had to be the reverend-lawyer who represented the husband of a Crane, Poole & Schmidt (the fictitious law firm) lawyer in a divorce case. Of course the reverend had to be portrayed as a sexual deviant who threatened to expose another CPS lawyer for unethical tactics in the divorce case unless she let the reverend smell her panties.

All of this is amusing, but is the left so bereft of comedic ideas that it can only resort to making fun of conservatives and the institutions that conservatives think important? Couldn’t the Alzheimer’s patient have been a liberal? Couldn’t the panty-sniffer have been a Democrat politician (or is reality stranger than fiction in this instance)? Those portrayals would be “different” and “cutting edge,” which Hollywood usually values.

It is easy to ignore liberal sermons when you so often expect them from the networks, so I have been able to ignore Boston Liberal’s proselytizing on everything from gun control, judicial nominees, and homosexual lifestyles. Also, it seems to me that the proselytizing has gotten worse since Candace Bergen joined the cast. I just hope they provide a little more balance before I lose interest.

Joe Gibbs Fined for Criticizing Officiating in Denver Game

From the Washington Post:

Gibbs Fined for Criticizing Officials
Tuesday, October 18, 2005; E08

Washington Redskins Coach Joe Gibbs was fined $10,000 for comments he made about officiating in the wake of a Week 5 loss to the Denver Broncos, league sources said. After that 21-19 defeat, Gibbs criticized officials' consistency, making several references to "mystery calls."

Gibbs sent tapes of several plays from that game to the NFL for review, and was upset about a pass interference call on wide receiver David Patten that negated a touchdown -- the Redskins ended up scoring on that drive anyway -- as well as a safety that was taken away by video replay because of the tuck rule, which made the fumble an incomplete pass instead and ended the play before Jake Plummer was sacked in the end zone.

"The game meant a lot to me," Gibbs said. "I got emotional, but we all know if you say something and it breaks a league policy, then you have to pay for it. So I'm going to do it. I'm going to pay it. It is my responsibility."

-- Jason La Canfora

As I said when I live-blogged the press conference, it was the angriest I had ever heard him.

How Good are the Redskins?

One measure of the strength of a football team is its winning percentage, but that percentage cannot be viewed in a vacuum. To truly understand the strength of each team, an NFL team's winning percentage should be examined relative to the strength of its opponents. So let's look at the Redskins' opponents' combined record in games when they weren't playing the Redskins.

The Redskins have played the Bears (W), the Cowboys (W), the Seahawks (W), the Broncos (L), and the Chiefs (L). When not playing the Redskins, the Redskins' opponents have a combined record of 16 wins and 7 losses for a 0.696 winning percentage. Those teams have a combined 0.400 winning percentage in games against the Redskins.

The Redskins' opponents have scored 557 points in 23 games for an average of 24.2 points per game. The Redskins' defense is only giving up 17.2 points per game against these teams, which is a full touchdown and extra point less than these teams score against others. The Redskins' opponents have given up 426 points for an average of 18.5 per game and the Redskins have scored 16.6 points per game.

In other words, the Redskins have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL this year and have been successful. They are "for real."

KC/DC Bad News/Good News

Once again the Redskins outplayed their opponent in all areas but one, but wound up losing for the second time this year.

The Redskins' inability to hold on to the ball on two plays (three plays in all) led directly to 10 Chiefs' points. In fact, a fumble by running back Rock Cartwright led directly to a ten-point swing because the Redskins were already well within field goal range and the Chiefs returned the fumble 80 yards for a touchdown. Another fumble by Brunell came when the Redskins were on the Chiefs' 7-yard line. The Redskins also failed to take the ball away for the fourth game in a row. I’ll say more on the failure to get takeaways in a future post.

Other observations:
Brunell looked great except for when he ran with the ball like he was running a dirty diaper to a diaper pail. He keeps hitting guys right between the numbers with his passes.

Portis did not run like he did against the Chiefs in prior games, but his 77 yards were good enough to win.

Santana Moss keeps proving that I completely underestimated him. He came up with several more big plays including two touchdowns, one of which came on a rocket screen that never seemed to work when Coles was doing the running.

Sean Taylor absolutely leveled Priest Holmes in the fourth quarter and once again dislodged the ball with incredible force, but unfortunately it traveled all the way back to the Chief’s backfield where only Chiefs players were around to recover it.

The Redskins outgained the Chiefs 398 yards to 274 and were able to move the ball at will except for when they turned it over.

The Redskins defense absolutely stuffed the previously unstoppable Priest Holmes, except on one screen pass when Holmes ran 60 yards for a TD. Holmes rushed 14 times for 18 yards.

Bad News/Good News:
Bad News: The Redskins lost for the second time this season
Good News: Both losses are to AFC teams, which do not factor in the tie-breakers. The Redskins remain perfect in the NFC (3-0) and division (1-0)

Bad News: The Redskins fumbled three times and have lost the turnover battle in every game this year
Good News: The offense has answered its critics. The Redskins played in two loud road stadiums and moved the football with alacrity. Winning on the road in Denver and Kansas City is always tough and the Redskins were one call (Denver) and one play (KC) away from winning both games. The defense has been stifling since Gibbs came back and the offense has finally found a groove. There is no reason that they cannot play this way all year

Bad News: the Redskins lost their lead in the division to the Cowboys
Good News: The Redskins already beat the Cowboys, and the Eagles are the team to beat anyway. The Redskins play the 49ers at home and the Giants on the road before they meet the Eagles. They could easily be 5-2 when they face the Eagles on 11/6, which would give the winner of that game a significant lead in the division with half a season to play.

Preview: Skins at Kansas City, or...

KC-DC, or
Indians-Chiefs

Whatever you want to call it, I'm salivating.

The last year that Clinton Portis played against the Chiefs was 2003. In two games he carried the ball 45 times for 359 yards and 6 touchdowns. That is an 8.0-yards per carry average. In his last game against them he had a 218-yard, five-touchdown performance.

Although the Redskins offense hasn't been firing on all cylinders yet, I believe this is the week that they start. Some guys just have the other team's number and this will be Portis's week.

One reason that this might be the time for the Redskins offense to lift off:
Kansas City's defense is third from the bottom of the AFC in yards allowed per game and dead last in the AFC in passing yards allowed per game. Only the Giants and 49ers give up more passing yards than the Chiefs.

Kansas City frequently gets credited with having a "high-powered" offense and this game is billed as a team with a top offense (KC) versus one with a top defense (DC). Yet, although the Redskins offense hasn't been getting a ton of points, they are outgaining Kansas City in yards per game (367 to 345). They outgained Denver last week 447 to 245 and the only reason they didn't outscore Denver was that the officials literally took their points off the board. It's only a matter of time before those yards turn into points, officials or no officials.

Joel Magaraci writes about the NFL for the Newark Star Ledger, which is NJ's most widely circulated newspaper. Joel wrote this about the game in today's edition:

"Blowout alert. All the pieces are in place....Chiefs by 20."

That's Twenty!!!!!! Two-Zero!!!!!

Of course, Joel also picked the Giants to upset the Cowboys; what a homer. Joel has almost everything right about KC-DC except the winner. Homers can't pick teams that are in their favorite team's division.

This weekend will live up to the old adage: Too many indians (in the end zone), not enough chiefs.

I'm Sorry

I apologize to Mark Brunell.

In my post on September 12, I worried that Patrick Ramsey might lose his starting QB job. I wrote that his job loss would be the team’s loss because this team needed to stretch the field to win and that “Brunell couldn’t stretch the field with heavy equipment.”

Mark Brunell has done an outstanding job in the starting QB role and there is no reason to believe it cannot continue. His short passing game against the Bears and for the first 56 minutes of the Cowboys game gave way to the deep balls to Moss against Dallas in the last four minutes. Those two passes to Moss, it seems have turned everything around.

I was wrong about Brunell, but I was correct in my assessment that the most important thing that the Redskins needed to accomplish was to throw the ball for a higher average yards per pass than last year because this team has proven it can do all the other things that are necessary to win. Brunell has been able to throw deep and that has made all of the difference.

The LaVar Arrington Controversy

My one concern over the conflict between the coaching staff and LaVar over his playing time is this: What happens when Gregg Williams takes a head coaching job somewhere else?

This defense is extraordinary without LaVar because of Williams's plug-and-play schemes. There are multiple examples of former second-and third-string defenders taking over for injured or departed first stringers with no loss of effectiveness. Last year, unknown Antonio Pierce took over for departed Trotter and injured Barrow at middle linebacker and finished third in the NFC in tackles. Lemar Marshall took over for Pierce this year and is second on the team and near the top of the league in tackles. All-world Champ Bailey departed and Shawn Springs took over and gave up fewer scores than Bailey. Springs gets hurt and Harris steps in and twice stops Dallas on third down with open-field tackles. All-everything LaVar got hurt last year and the team finished third in the NFL in defense. This list is a lot longer, too.

So what will happen? If I were Joe Gibbs and Daniel Snyder, I'd convince Gregg that the head coaching job is his in 2009 when Gibbs retires (with three more Lomabardis I might add). Gibbs will be 69 then and will have done everything an NFL head coach can do. Williams might also want to avoid the "Peter Principle" that so many great assistant coaches succumb to when taking a head coaching job. In fact, Williams has already been hit with it once when he took the head coaching job with the Bills after being so successful as a defensive coordinator for the Titans. Learning how to be a head coach from Gibbs over the next five years could do him a world of good.

Gregg is clearly one of the best defensive minds in the game and his schemes require teamwork, where athleticism is great, but precision is imperative. Other defensive coordinators need more athleticism. If Gregg leaves, the Redskins defense better have as many good athletes like LaVar as possible.

Gibbs's Monday Press Conference

I am live blogging Joe Gibbs's Monday press conference. Although he is smart enough to avoid saying things that would antagonize officials and hurt the team in the next game and smart enough to avoid a fine by the league, he was more animated than I've ever heard him over bad calls.

Joe said that you have to overcome referee's calls, but that "we have a lot of things (on the film) that we are going to show the league to help them out." Joe said the "tuck" rule shouldn't have applied on Plummer's fumble/safety because it became a backwards lateral once the ball hit his non-throwing hand and went backwards.

Gibbs said there was absolutely no holding on Portis's 26-yard run that got called back and no offensive pass interference on Patten's touchdown that got called back.

Update: Gibbs just got angry at one question and yelled that "a lot of the stuff that was called was a mystery." He mentioned penalties that Denver committed weren't called, but other calls were made against the Redskins "that were a mystery." Again, it's the angriest I've ever heard him.

Gibbs cut the conference short because he said they had a long night and that they have a lot of work to do tonight to get ready for next week. Great coaches say the right things at the right time. Now that the Skins are a legitimate playoff contender, Gibbs is serving notice that he expects better treatment from the officials and he'll probably get it. He could have reacted this way a few times last year, but he was probably keeping his powder dry. Why waste your capital on a six-win season? Gibbs understands that you cannot antagonize, but that you also cannot let the league walk all over you.

Redskins 22 plus Officials -3 versus Denver 21

Yes, I know that if clinton Portis didn't fumble, the Redskins would have won;

Yes, I know that if three players didn't miss tackles on each of Bell's touchdown runs, the Redskins would have won;

Yes, I know if Novak elevates his FG kick six inches, the Redskins would have won;

I know the Redskins were not perfect. If the Redskins could only be perfect, they would break the 1972 Dolphins' record. But, perfection should not be required in a game in which the Redskins clearly outplayed the Broncos. All that should be required is adequate officiating.

Having watched a ton of NFL football, I am more convinced than ever that there is momentum in officiating. If you have a fairly consistent record of winning, you will get the benefit of the doubt on the calls from the officials. In fact let's give this momentum a name. Let's call it "Referee's Enlightened Altering Momentum" or REAM.

So, for example, if you were in the playoffs in the prior year, I think you get the majority of the calls when you play a team that had a losing record. It's sort of like in boxing, where the challenger has to clearly defeat the champ to get the title belt; or like in baseball where Braves pitchers get the called strike even when the pitch is three inches off of the plate. The loser gets REAMed. How else do you explain Glavine getting that call when he's a Brave and not when he's a Met?

Well, today the officials REAMed the Redskins. It's either that or I don't understand an NFL rule.

Trailing Denver by four points, the Redskins punted the ball and pinned the Broncos at their three yard line. On third down, Plummer pulled a pass down when defensive end Wynn got in his face. Yes, Plummer's arm was moving forward...until it wasn't. There was a point early in the attempted pass that it was clear that Plummer had no intention of releasing the ball. Plummer, who throws with his right hand, started to raise his left hand up to greet the ball. Plummer pulled the ball down and did NOT release the ball. He started to draw the ball back towards his body. In other words, the ball was no longer moving forward, but backward. The ball made contact with his left hand just in front of Plummer's left hip and he started to take a step to run with the ball. Plummer's left hand could not get control of the ball and it fell to the ground. Plummer frantically chased the ball into the end zone, he almost swatted it out of bounds for a safety, but at the last second he decided to pick it up and try to run out of the end zone. That was when Ade Jimoh leveled him for a safety.

The referees on the field correctly called it a safety. It was clear that Plummer thought he had fumbled and given the Redskins two points. The Fox announcers reviewed the replays and decisively called it a fumble and a safety; there was no debate, hesitation, or qualification in their pronouncement that it was a safety, even after seeing several replays from different angles. The Redskins celebrated that they pulled within two and were going to get the ball back in good shape. That's when Shanahan challenged the call and argued that plummer's arm was moving forward when he fumbled.

The Broncos, who were in the playoffs last year, inexplicably won the challenge and the Redskins, who won six games last year, lost their points. How important were those points? Later in the game the Redskins scored a touchdown to make the score 21 to 19. If the Redskins were not REAMed out of those two points, the game would have been tied with about a minute to play and the Redskins would have kicked an extra point to win the game 22 to 21. Instead, they had to attempt a two-point conversion and failed.

Some analysts during and after the game referred to a replay referee's call when Tom Brady fumbled in the playoffs against the Raiders and called it the "Tuck" rule. According to a story on ESPN.com, Brady's arm was moving forward and the replay refs overturned the ruling on the field that Brady fumbled. However, it seems to me that the comparison of Brady's fumble to Plummer's is flawed. Brady's hand was moving forward, but Plummer's had was no longer moving forward, it was going backward, and his non-throwing hand was trying to control the ball to allow him to run.

So, the Redskins got REAMed. The NFL's message is: "Be perfect and you won't have to worry about bending over."

Louis Freeh

I just saw the 60 Minutes interview of the former FBI director and it made me proud of the Jersey boy. He was extremely eloquent and right on point.

Freeh graduated from Rutgers, which proves that there are some students who can compartmentalize all of the liberal BS that is taught in the NJ university system, focus on the important things, and come away with an education. Having to argue against the liberal BS every day may have even been better preparation for his job at FBI than if he attended an institution with a focus on the classics.

Must See TV for Sean Taylor Fans

Hit Man.

This only covers 2004. Taylor has already made about a half-dozen bone-breaking hits this year including the game saver against the Cowboys that knocked the football out of Crayton's hands after he caught a pass that would have given the Cowboys a first down with minutes to play.

6 and 2...

...that's Joe Gibb's record in his last eight games.

Those two losses were by three points each. One of those three-point losses came on a Hail Mary TD pass by Vinny Testaverde with 40-seconds left against Dallas and one came on a blown pass interference call on Shawn Springs against Philly. Gibbs could easily have an eight game winning streak right now. That's something for Lenny Pasquarelli to ponder.

What's Luck Got To Do With It?

My apologies to Tina Turner.

I love it. The Redskins keep winning and the professional critics keep crying that they are lucky; I have a feeling that the Redskins like it that way. You can’t surprise anyone when they’re expecting you to smash them in the mouth. And, it’s hard to have a chip on your shoulder when everyone loves you.

Who are these critic-geniuses? We can start with the prognosticators in the New York area and national publications who unanimously picked the Redskins to finish in last place in the NFC East. Then we can continue with Terry Bradshaw who actually said at halftime of yesterday’s game against the Seahawks that the reason the Redskins were winning was that Seattle’s players had jet lag. Okay, Terry.

Let’s continue with Paul Needell of the Star Ledger, New Jersey’s most widely circulated newspaper. On Friday, Paul said that the Redskins were the most overrated team in the league and he picked the Seahawks as his “upset special” of the week. This is the same Needell that picked the Redskins to finish in last place. Leave it to a New York sports columnist to write that a unanimous last-place pick is overrated. The gamblers at the Bada Bing must be upset with Paulie because today he is trying to justify himself by saying “The 3 – 0 Redskins are more lucky than good.” That’s right Paul, keep repeating that mantra; the Giants players and coaches read your column.

Although I am the “eternal optimist,” I am not getting carried away with the Redskins’ 3 – 0 start. I am not, for instance, going to repeatedly remind everyone that they won the Super Bowl every other time they started 3 – 0 (did I just let that slip?). They won it in 1982, 1987, and 1991 after starting 3 – 0, but this Redskins team is not as good as the 1982 and 1991 teams. It is also not nearly as good as the 1983 team, which did not start 3 – 0 and did lose a Super Bowl to the Raiders. Despite the Super Bowl loss, that 1983 team was one of the best teams in the history of the NFL.

This 2005 Redskins team is, however, better than the 1987 Super Bowl championship team and very similar to a more recent Super Bowl winner: The 2000 Baltimore Ravens. Paul Needell probably remembers what the Ravens did to his beloved Giants in the Super Bowl that year. Before you get your shorts in a knot, I am not predicting that the Redskins will win the Super Bowl this year, but I am on record saying that they will make the playoffs. Once you’re in the playoffs anything can happen, and good things usually do happen in the playoffs to teams with dominating defenses like the Redskins.

Although the Redskins’ critics will not give credit where it is due, I will. Terry Bradshaw apparently had some sort of epiphany between his halftime and post-game analysis and posted the following on the Fox web site today:

But I really liked what I saw Sunday (from the Redskins) against the Seahawks. The Redskins are picking up their blocking schemes. The offensive linemen are picking up the blitzes and that delay blitz I talked about on our postgame show that ended up in the game-deciding 30-yard pass to Santana Moss. That proved the linemen and Brunell are seeing things. Brunell is like these other guys. Give him time, he's a veteran. He's polished. He throws a great deep ball. He really throws a pretty pass and he makes good decisions when he has time.

It's damn impressive what the Redskins have accomplished thus far.

Let's go back to last year. Remember, at the end of last season, Gibbs came out and said, "Let's not be so quick in writing off Brunell." Patrick Ramsey, yes, he's pretty good, but Brunell can still play.

Now, I was one of those guys who openly questioned Gibbs when he said that. Did he really believe that? I was saying, "Hey, get the young kid in there. You can't win with Brunell..."

"...I've learned my lesson. There is no way I know more about what's going on in Washington than Gibbs."

Terry Bradshaw is a big man for admitting this, but for covertness-sake I hope more people are listening to the Paul Needells and Lenny Pasquarellis out there. Remember, Lenny was one of the first to say Gibbs was too old and that the game has passed him by. The funny thing is that Lenny wrote that about ten minutes after Gibbs announced that he was returning to the NFL, which was about eight months before Gibbs coached his first regular-season game. What a prognosticator! What genius!

But, let’s talk a little about the importance of luck in an NFL season. Was it lucky that the Seahawk’s Brown plunked the game-winning field goal off of the left upright yesterday? I don’t know; was it luck that the Redskin’s Novak had a field goal blocked yesterday even though he thought he hit it well? Was it luck that Santana Moss was able to fly by the Cowboys’ secondary TWICE? Was it luck that the Bears only points in week one came off a kick returner’s fumble deep in Redskins territory? When coaches pick their players, draw up plays, and when players make plays on the field, teams make their own luck (That kick returner has been cut, by the way. Gibbs sent a message about holding on to the ball.)

But, I’ll tell you what luck is: Bad officiating. Bad officiating can make a huge difference in a sixteen-game season. One bad call can ruin a game and three bad ones can make the difference between finishing in last place and making the playoffs. The prospect of bad officiating is one reason why the NFL allows replay reviews of calls on the field, but I think the NFL should have unlimited replay reviews.

For example, look at last season, Gibbs’s first year back from retirement. The Redskins had three bad calls that led to losses in three games. In a Monday Night game, the Skins lost to the Cowboys by three points after the Cowboys receiver pushed off of the Skins defender in the end zone and the Skins got called for pass interference. Pass interference is not reviewable. In the game against the Packers, Clinton Portis’s game-winning touchdown in the final minute of play was called back for a motion penalty against the H-back, Cooley. Replays showed that Cooley was as still as a statue on the play, but that call is not reviewable. Against the Eagles, Shawn Springs was inexplicably called for pass interference against Terrell Owens on a third-and-five play when the Eagles were on their own 40-yard line. The Eagles should have punted. Instead, the ball was advanced 35-yards on the penalty, the drive ended with a touchdown, and the Eagles won by three.

Reverse those three bad calls and the Redskins finish 9 - 7 and get at least one home playoff game. Joe Gibbs would have had to sit for dozens of interviews with people like Needell, Pasquarelli, and Bradshaw and answer questions about his coaching prowess and the fast turnaround of the Redskins. And, few of them would have predicted that the Redskins would finish last in the division in 2005.