Ned Yost, Manager of the
Kansas City Royals, treated game one last night as if it were game seven.
Yost was desperate. How could
anyone be desperate in game one, you wonder? Well, if I were Ned, I would have
done the same thing because game two features the postseason’s best starting pitcher—the
Mets’ Jacob deGrom—against the postseason’s worst starting pitcher—the Royals’ Johnny
Cueto.
deGrom
|
GP
|
GS
|
CG
|
SHO
|
IP
|
H
|
R
|
ER
|
HR
|
BB
|
SO
|
W
|
L
|
P/GS
|
WHIP
|
BAA
|
ERA
|
2015 Regular Season
|
30
|
30
|
0
|
0
|
191.0
|
149
|
59
|
54
|
16
|
38
|
205
|
14
|
8
|
99.2
|
0.98
|
.215
|
2.54
|
2015 Postseason
|
3
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
20.0
|
15
|
4
|
4
|
2
|
5
|
27
|
3
|
0
|
108.7
|
1.00
|
.205
|
1.80
|
Cueto
|
GP
|
GS
|
CG
|
SHO
|
IP
|
H
|
R
|
ER
|
HR
|
BB
|
SO
|
W
|
L
|
P/GS
|
WHIP
|
BAA
|
ERA
|
2015 Regular Season
|
32
|
32
|
2
|
2
|
212.0
|
194
|
87
|
81
|
21
|
46
|
176
|
11
|
13
|
102.1
|
1.13
|
.242
|
3.44
|
2015 Postseason
|
3
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
16.0
|
15
|
14
|
14
|
3
|
7
|
15
|
1
|
1
|
87.7
|
1.38
|
.242
|
7.88
|
Yost simply could not afford to leave
Kansas City down 0 – 2, so he effectively burned his game four starter, Chris
Young, in relief last night. Young might still start game four, but after
throwing 53 pitches last night, it is hard to imagine the 36-year old will be
very effective or go deep into the game on just four days’ rest. Game four at
Citifield will be pitched by a Royals pitching committee on which the Mets
should feast.
Royals relievers threw 150
pitches yesterday. It’s hard to imagine their vaunted bullpen will be at the
top of their game today. A key member of that pen, Herrera, threw 35 and will probably
not pitch today. Cueto is going to have to be much better than he has all
postseason to give the Royals a chance today.
How was that Inside-the-Park
HR Ruled a Hit?
I’m sorry, there is no way the
ball that glanced off of Cespedes’s glove, which was then kicked away, was a
hit. That was more egregious than Hosmer’s error at first base
later in the game. Call that hometown scoring at its worst.
Why wasn’t Conforto the
Designated Hitter and Lagaras playing Centerfield?
I didn’t even think about whom
the Mets would DH last night. I thought it was a no-brainer that Conforto would
DH, which would allow the Mets to start Lagaras their Gold Glove center fielder
in center. Everyone commented about the size of the Royals outfield and that to
play well there, teams need three centerfielders. Well, the Mets HAVE three
centerfielders including Gold Glove winners and runners up.
Had Lagaras been in center on
that first pitch, it would have been a routine out and the Mets would have won
the game. Lagaras came in later in the game for defense and got two hits in
extra innings including one in an at bat that reminded me of Shawon Dunston’s
at bat in the 1999 NLCS game 5 that preceded Robin Ventura’s grand slam single.
Lagaras, who was an unheralded
minor leaguer, showed just how gritty and competitive he is when he won the
starting centerfielder job last year and then won the Gold Glove. He showed it
again last night in those at bats. World Series seem to be won when gritty players
step up in crunch time, think Lenny Dykstra, David Eckstein, and David Freese. Lagaras
should start in center when the DH is in play, which means he should start
every game in Kansas City.
Comparing the Two Teams: The
Generalizations
The generalizations about these
two teams before the start of the series were: The Royals are a gutsy,
never-say-die team that has one of the best bullpens in baseball and a strong
defense. They don’t strike out very often, so they put the ball in play and
make defenses work. The Mets have a great starting rotation, great closer and
live largely by the home run. If the Mets have a weakness, it is in defense up
the middle when Juan Lagaras is not in centerfield. The teams were considered
so evenly matched that the oddmakers had them even to win the World Series.
Well, if you judge the entire
series by game one, the generalizations look about right. The Mets made errors
on the first and last Royals runs (sorry, but the HR on the first pitch was an
error), Harvey pitched well (2 ER in 6 innings, if scored correctly), the
Royals refused to quit when down by two runs in the middle of the sixth, they
made some nice plays in the field and only one error, the Royals bullpen did
not allow an earned run in eight innings nearly matched by the Mets’ one earned
run in eight, and the game went 14 innings. How even is that?
Comparing the Two Teams: What Generalizations
Miss
If you ran a team, would you
rather have a great starting pitching staff with average middle relief and a
great closer, or a weak starting staff with a great bullpen and closer?
When you consider that the
starters control the game for about six to eight of the game’s nine innings, I know
my choice. I would take the team with the best starting pitching and a great
closer and hope I never need the middle relievers, or that I have such a huge
lead after pounding the starter that I don’t have to worry. So overall, the
advantage for this series should go to the Mets. The Mets starters were 3rd
in WHIP and 4th in ERA in major league baseball this year. The Royals'
starters were 25th and 22nd, respectively, in those
categories.
All of which makes me wonder why
Collins eliminated his own advantage yesterday. Harvey only threw 80 pitches,
or 13.33 pitches per inning, which is fantastic. I was shocked when Collins
took Harvey out of the game. He should have gone 8 inning and 107 pitches and
bridged the gap to Familia himself. We cannot know if attempting a four-out
save was the reason that Familia blew the save, his first blown save since July
30, but every manager prefers to bring in their closer for one inning with the
bases empty. Still, as Curt Schilling said on the postgame, that was not much
of a mistake by Familia; give credit to Gordon who didn’t miss it. Darling on the
other hand, felt that the extra rest left Familia too strong, so his ball wasn’t
moving like it normally does.
Essentially, the Royals are
supposed to win on putting balls in play, team speed, scoring a lot of runs, flashy
plays in the field, getting a lead and giving it to the bullpen to hold, and
the Mets are supposed to win by shutting you out, wearing out your starters by
making them throw a lot of pitches, crushing home runs, and giving the ball the
Familia.
But except for middle relief and
stolen bases, this Mets team actually does everything as well as or better than
the Royals even the things the generalizations believe the Royals do better. The
Mets need for middle relievers is simply not as urgent as the Royals given the
Mets dominating starting pitching. The Mets superiority is especially true if
you only consider the Mets team that was created by the returns of David Wright
and Travis d’Arnaud from injury, the call up of Conforto, and the trades for
Johnson, Uribe and Cespedes.
· Which team scored the most runs, got on base
more and slugged with the best since the All Star game (which shortchanges the
Mets who did not transform their offense until weeks later)? The Mets, who
scored 5.11 runs per game versus 4.53 for the Royals. The Mets OBA and OPS were
0.328 and 0.770. The Royals, 0.320 and 0.736. Mets win every category;
· Which team played better defense for the season
(post All Star game split not available, which shortchanges the Mets)? The Mets,
with a Fielding percentage of 0.986 (10th in MLB) vs 0.985 (11th)
a virtual dead-heat, but it goes against the narrative that the Royals are
superior;
· In the postseason, before the World Series, the
Mets beat their opponents by 1.89 runs per game over 9 games and the Royals
outscored their opponents by 1.55 runs per game in 11 games;
So, the primary Royals advantage
is playing four games at home if this series goes seven games. The Mets should
gear up to prevent that. One way to prevent it is to leave the starters in the
game. They are young and can throw a lot of pitches and come back on five days
rest and do it again. Let the starters be the bridge to Familia, especially
when playing with the DH. Games two (deGrom v Cueto) and four (Matz v Young and
committee) look like Mets wins. So, it will all come down to how well the Mets
do in three (Syndegaard v Ventura) and five (Volquez v Harvey). I like the Mets
chances in all four.
In 1969, Tom Seaver opened game
one of the World Series and lost against a dominant Orioles team. Everyone
believed their best chance to win the World Series ended with that loss.
Instead Koosman beat McNally, Gentry beat Palmer, Seaver beat Cuellar, Koosman
beat McNally and the Mets were champs. A repeat of that pattern L-W-W-W-W could easily
happen this year.