If You Only Care About Results, the RG3 Benching Makes No Sense

So, let me see if I can understand and summarize the week that was in Redskins Nation. It will not be easy. My head is spinning faster than Jay Gruden is spinning his rationale.

 

Last week, Gruden decided to bench RG3 in favor of Colt McCoy, largely because RG3 was not producing points and the Redskins were losing. So, let's ignore the poor defensive schemes and defensive coaching and defensive breakdowns and try to imagine that all of the Redskins losses are due to poor offensive production.

 

Now, try to imagine that RG3 did not play in a pro-style offense in college against great competition and carry his Baylor Bears to a bowl win for the first time in decades. Try to imagine that the passing statistics that RG3 put up in college were not GREAT predictors of NFL success as RG3's college passing numbers blew away the college statistics of NFL QBs who had great success in the NFL. Try to imagine that RG3 did not have the best all-time season as an NFL rookie QB when he blew away the old rookie passer record with his 102.4 passer rating, beating Ben Roethlisberger's old record by 6% and confirming the analysis that his Heisman Trophy career statistics would lead to NFL success. Now try to imagine that RG3 did not put the 2012 team on his shoulders when they were 3-6 (after the head coach had already given up on the season) and carry the Redskins to the division title. It will take some imagination to forget all of those things, but Jay Gruden, apparently, has a great imagination.

 

So, let's look at RG3 with a more critical eye.

 

By most accounts, RG3's 2013 season was a complete bust, and it seemed especially so after the record-breaking year he had in 2012. Yet, in the Skins first ten games last year, when Griffin was still in the Shanahans' good graces, Griffin's offense was scoring over 25 points per game. They were 3-7, but the offense was scoring points. RG3 didn't look like the 2012 version, but he was still leading the offense to the end zone. The defense and special teams were absolutely atrocious, but RG3 didn't play defense or special teams.

 

So, do you know which division-leading or contending NFL teams THIS YEAR score 25 or fewer points per game--and in many cases significantly fewer than 25?

 

Seattle
San Francisco
Dallas
Arizona
Detroit
Atlanta
New Orleans
Buffalo
Miami
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
Cleveland
San Diego
Kansas City

 

And Baltimore is averaging just slightly over RG3's production in 2013.

 

In other words, RG3's offensive production in the redskins first ten games last year--a monumental bust--was as good as practically EVERY contending team's offensive production is this year. After the tenth game, the team had checked out and RG3 was benched for the last three games in favor of Kirk Cousins, who could not win even one of those games because he turned the ball over multiple times per game.

 

So, explain to me again how the Redskins weren't winning last year and this because of RG3?

 

Now, lets look at the results of this year's benching. Sure, RG3 got hurt again and lost time and probably some timing with his receivers. But, the main difference between RG3's rookie season and the last two? In his rookie year, all five starting offensive linemen played almost every snap. The last two? Hardly. He has had very few drop backs in the last two years when he wasn't harassed. But, to blame it on Griffin, one would have to see that his replacements performed better.

Kirk Cousins? He melted down in practically every game. He didn't win any of his starts last year or this. Let's move on.

 

But before I address Colt McCoy, let's remember that McCoy enjoyed a couple of things yesterday that RG3 hasn't had much or any of in the last two years: 1) Four times McCoy had a short field thanks to a sack fumble of Luck and an interception of Luck; another fumble; and good defense on one series along with good special teams; and 2) a healthy Jordan Reed playing TE. Other things McCoy had yesterday that RG3 didn't have last week: All Pro Trent Williams protecting his blind side; David Amerson helping his defense. 

So, how many points did the McCoy offense score after being given a short field four times? 6.

 

Why only 6 points? For many of the same reasons RG3 has not been able to lead his team to the end zone. The O Line is a sieve and McCoy has been harassed (that, and McCoy underthrew wide open receivers all day).

 

In all, McCoy put up 390 yards, but most of that came in garbage time and he got big chunks on poorly thrown balls on which his receivers made great plays. For example, his long TD to Jackson was horrifically under thrown but the defender didn't see it. Jackson did see it and came back to the ball. But, with 6 minutes left in the first half, with the game still within reach, McCoy had -3 yards passing (yes, that's a minus sign).

 

Now, McCoy was sacked 6 times (and fumbled twice), so the blame is not all on him. But, whenever RG3 was sacked multiple times in a game, Gruden stated that RG3 held the ball too long and wasn't seeing the things that were there. Colt was sacked more times yesterday than RG3 was in any game this year, yet there was no mention of McCoy holding the ball too long; no mention of having to look at the film to see why McCoy missed open receivers; no mention of McCoy failing to exploit four series in which he had a short field, an advantage that Griffin was not given this year.

 

So, if these losses are not the QBs' fault, the question is not who can win from week-to-week for the remainder of this year, but who is more likely to be a future franchise QB: A) the Heisman Trophy winner and Rookie of the Year who led his team to a division championship as a rookie and set an all-time passer rating record for a rookie just two years ago; or B) the journeyman who never had success in the NFL and who is six years older?

 

I know my vote.

 

But, it is apparent now given all of Gruden's post-game comments that RG3's benching is not temporary and it is not being used for motivational purposes. Gruden has given RG3 just five injury-interrupted games this year to prove himself. The rest of his career doesn't matter to Gruden, not even RG3's division-winning results when healthy. For reasons I cannot fathom, Gruden favors any QB over RG3 and it is unlikely that RG3 will be a starter again for as long as Gruden is head coach.

 

Why?

Dan Steinberg of the Washington Post said after this game, that it is clear that not only are the Redskins not a good team, they are not a well coached team either. I'll have lots to say about that in addition to Gruden's personnel decisions. Remarkably, this is the first time that I have had major disagreement with Brian Mitchell's take.

Offensive and Defensive Ranks of teams within the NFC East:

Defense:
1) Redskins
2) Dallas (+22 Yards/Game)
3) Eagles (+53 Y/G)
4) Giants (+54 Y/G)

Offense:
1) Dallas
2) Eagles (-2 Y/G)
3) Skins (-27 Y/G)
4) Giants (-86 Y/G)

 

As I have said all year, there is very little difference in talent between the teams with the top and bottom records in the NFC East, with two exceptions: 1) The Giants are clearly worst, spotting 140 yards per game in total to the best in the division; and 2) The Redskins are rising while the rest are falling, especially on defense with the young guys--Breeland, Amerson, Murphy, Kerrigan, and Robinson--who are rising fast, paired on offense with RG3, Morris, and Jordan Reed.

 

If RG3 were healthy all year, they likely would have beaten Philadelphia in Philadelphia, and the Cardinals in Arizona. Kirk cousins' meltdowns kept them from winning those games. Those two wins alone would place the Skins in first place right now. And, we don't know what would have happened in the Giants game if Kirk didn't melt down completely in the second half of that game, which was close until Paulson fumbled in the red zone with 2:00 to go in the first half. Or, what would have happened with a competent QB in the Seahawks game, which was a one-score game deep into the fourth quarter.

 

The good news: Kirk will not be given any more chances to melt down unless RG3 and McCoy get hurt. And, RG3--the Franchise--will be back for the Tampa game and the Skins will probably be 4 - 5 when he does. That record is one game better than their 3 - 6 record in 2012 when Griffin put the entire team on his shoulders and carried the Skins to the NFC East title.

 

On the other hand, I am still hearing nonsense from DC media that RG3 should not take the field if McCoy is 3 - 0 after the bye. Nuts. RG3 is one of the best QBs to step on a football field in the past 25 years. You don't keep a guy like that on the bench when healthy.

Fumblin and Bumblin: Skins 6 - Texans 17

When one is in an old fashioned gun fight against a Texan and one pulls a gun out of the waist of one's pants, one shouldn't pull on the gun by the trigger. Yet, that's exactly what the Redskins did yesterday shooting themselves in places where it hurts before the Texan could get off a shot.

If the Redskins had held onto the ball all three times that they found themselves inside their opponent's ten-yard line (turning it over twice), they would have won the game. Had they merely blocked those rushing the PAT attempt and the punt, they probably would have won the game. These are simple things. Things that can be corrected pretty quickly.

The good news:

• Griffin played well. Going against a very good defense, Griffin finished with a passer rating close to 97, which is good enough for tenth in the league so far, and he looked a lot like the pocket passer that Gruden wants him to become. He ran only three times and mostly moved around in the pocket buying time for receivers to open up. I'd say he has learned the new system pretty quickly, not that it's a surprise (per my Season Preview). And, more importantly, Griffin's decisions were outstanding--just like in his rookie season. He consistently took what the defense gave him and didn't try to force anything. The Texans were not going to let him burn them deep, so Griffin took the five to fifteen yard plays every time at a high success rate;
• Alfred Morris is a beast. He average 6.5 yards a carry yesterday and should have gotten more than 14 opportunities;
• Jordan Reed's early injury was a reminder how much they miss him when he is hurt, especially on third down. The injury is supposed to be minor;
• The defense is as good as I suspected it would be. They made few big plays, but they forced a lot of three and outs. They only let up one big play and only let up 10 points when they were on the field. There is a lot of talent there even if it turns out that Cofield will be out for a while with the ankle injury he sustained;
• Their new punter looked very good. The block was not his fault;
• Roberts was exceptional on returns and may have broken one had his own teammate not knocked him out of bounds. Damn these unforced errors. He also had another big return called back on holding away from the play;

The bad news:

• Right Tackle Tyler Polumbus has looked bad every time he has played. I'm not sure what it will take to give the rookie tackle Moses a chance, but surely Moses could not have been much worse than Polumbus yesterday. In the preseason, Moses substituted for Trent Williams against Cleveland's first-team defense and did extraordinarily well. Let's hope the Redskins give Moses a start at RT soon;
• All of the unforced errors;
• Injuries to Reed and Cofield

It would be very damaging for a lot of reasons for the Redskins to fall to 0 - 2 after playing the Texans, who were on a 14-game losing streak before yesterday, and the Jaguars next Sunday. So, as ridiculous as it sounds, this week is almost a "must-win" game. The good news is that it is very winnable. The bad news: so was yesterday's game. The Redskins have to stop shooting themselves.

A win against Jacksonville should give them confidence in the system and Gruden and Griffin and the defense, especially if they fire on all cylinders. That would put them in position to do some early damage in the NFC East with the Eagles and Giants coming up after that. If it turns out that the Redskins are 3-1 after the Thursday Night game against the Giants, they will be sitting alone in first place with the tie breakers. After that Giants game, they play four games in which they should win three, for a potential 6 - 2 record at the halfway point and a lot to look forward to in the second half.