If You Only Care About Results, the RG3 Benching Makes No Sense

So, let me see if I can understand and summarize the week that was in Redskins Nation. It will not be easy. My head is spinning faster than Jay Gruden is spinning his rationale.

 

Last week, Gruden decided to bench RG3 in favor of Colt McCoy, largely because RG3 was not producing points and the Redskins were losing. So, let's ignore the poor defensive schemes and defensive coaching and defensive breakdowns and try to imagine that all of the Redskins losses are due to poor offensive production.

 

Now, try to imagine that RG3 did not play in a pro-style offense in college against great competition and carry his Baylor Bears to a bowl win for the first time in decades. Try to imagine that the passing statistics that RG3 put up in college were not GREAT predictors of NFL success as RG3's college passing numbers blew away the college statistics of NFL QBs who had great success in the NFL. Try to imagine that RG3 did not have the best all-time season as an NFL rookie QB when he blew away the old rookie passer record with his 102.4 passer rating, beating Ben Roethlisberger's old record by 6% and confirming the analysis that his Heisman Trophy career statistics would lead to NFL success. Now try to imagine that RG3 did not put the 2012 team on his shoulders when they were 3-6 (after the head coach had already given up on the season) and carry the Redskins to the division title. It will take some imagination to forget all of those things, but Jay Gruden, apparently, has a great imagination.

 

So, let's look at RG3 with a more critical eye.

 

By most accounts, RG3's 2013 season was a complete bust, and it seemed especially so after the record-breaking year he had in 2012. Yet, in the Skins first ten games last year, when Griffin was still in the Shanahans' good graces, Griffin's offense was scoring over 25 points per game. They were 3-7, but the offense was scoring points. RG3 didn't look like the 2012 version, but he was still leading the offense to the end zone. The defense and special teams were absolutely atrocious, but RG3 didn't play defense or special teams.

 

So, do you know which division-leading or contending NFL teams THIS YEAR score 25 or fewer points per game--and in many cases significantly fewer than 25?

 

Seattle
San Francisco
Dallas
Arizona
Detroit
Atlanta
New Orleans
Buffalo
Miami
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
Cleveland
San Diego
Kansas City

 

And Baltimore is averaging just slightly over RG3's production in 2013.

 

In other words, RG3's offensive production in the redskins first ten games last year--a monumental bust--was as good as practically EVERY contending team's offensive production is this year. After the tenth game, the team had checked out and RG3 was benched for the last three games in favor of Kirk Cousins, who could not win even one of those games because he turned the ball over multiple times per game.

 

So, explain to me again how the Redskins weren't winning last year and this because of RG3?

 

Now, lets look at the results of this year's benching. Sure, RG3 got hurt again and lost time and probably some timing with his receivers. But, the main difference between RG3's rookie season and the last two? In his rookie year, all five starting offensive linemen played almost every snap. The last two? Hardly. He has had very few drop backs in the last two years when he wasn't harassed. But, to blame it on Griffin, one would have to see that his replacements performed better.

Kirk Cousins? He melted down in practically every game. He didn't win any of his starts last year or this. Let's move on.

 

But before I address Colt McCoy, let's remember that McCoy enjoyed a couple of things yesterday that RG3 hasn't had much or any of in the last two years: 1) Four times McCoy had a short field thanks to a sack fumble of Luck and an interception of Luck; another fumble; and good defense on one series along with good special teams; and 2) a healthy Jordan Reed playing TE. Other things McCoy had yesterday that RG3 didn't have last week: All Pro Trent Williams protecting his blind side; David Amerson helping his defense. 

So, how many points did the McCoy offense score after being given a short field four times? 6.

 

Why only 6 points? For many of the same reasons RG3 has not been able to lead his team to the end zone. The O Line is a sieve and McCoy has been harassed (that, and McCoy underthrew wide open receivers all day).

 

In all, McCoy put up 390 yards, but most of that came in garbage time and he got big chunks on poorly thrown balls on which his receivers made great plays. For example, his long TD to Jackson was horrifically under thrown but the defender didn't see it. Jackson did see it and came back to the ball. But, with 6 minutes left in the first half, with the game still within reach, McCoy had -3 yards passing (yes, that's a minus sign).

 

Now, McCoy was sacked 6 times (and fumbled twice), so the blame is not all on him. But, whenever RG3 was sacked multiple times in a game, Gruden stated that RG3 held the ball too long and wasn't seeing the things that were there. Colt was sacked more times yesterday than RG3 was in any game this year, yet there was no mention of McCoy holding the ball too long; no mention of having to look at the film to see why McCoy missed open receivers; no mention of McCoy failing to exploit four series in which he had a short field, an advantage that Griffin was not given this year.

 

So, if these losses are not the QBs' fault, the question is not who can win from week-to-week for the remainder of this year, but who is more likely to be a future franchise QB: A) the Heisman Trophy winner and Rookie of the Year who led his team to a division championship as a rookie and set an all-time passer rating record for a rookie just two years ago; or B) the journeyman who never had success in the NFL and who is six years older?

 

I know my vote.

 

But, it is apparent now given all of Gruden's post-game comments that RG3's benching is not temporary and it is not being used for motivational purposes. Gruden has given RG3 just five injury-interrupted games this year to prove himself. The rest of his career doesn't matter to Gruden, not even RG3's division-winning results when healthy. For reasons I cannot fathom, Gruden favors any QB over RG3 and it is unlikely that RG3 will be a starter again for as long as Gruden is head coach.

 

Why?

Dan Steinberg of the Washington Post said after this game, that it is clear that not only are the Redskins not a good team, they are not a well coached team either. I'll have lots to say about that in addition to Gruden's personnel decisions. Remarkably, this is the first time that I have had major disagreement with Brian Mitchell's take.

The CounterTrey 2014 Redskins Season Preview

This will be quick. The Redskins defense and special teams will be significantly better than just about everyone expects, and certainly much better than last year when the D and special teams were atrocious. That, combined with a prolific offense, will propel the Skins into the playoffs, possibly with a bye. No one thinks that the Redskins are a playoff team today, certainly not at NFL.com where ten of the eleven analysts have predicted that the Eagles will win the NFC East and that the Redskins will fail to make the playoffs.

Offense:
I find it laughable that there is so much "concern" about Robert Griffin III and his ability to pass from the pocket and digest Jay Gruden's offense. I find it hilarious that many think that RG3, the quarterback with the best rookie passer rating in history, somehow forgot how to pass the ball properly.

RG3 came out of college with passing statistics that the Wall Street Journal noted were huge predictors of success in the NFL: Namely, combined he had one of the highest completion percentages and yards-per-attempt of any quarterback coming out of college in the past thirty years or so (I looked for the info graphic the WSJ published before RG3's rookie season in 2012 in order to paste it here but could not find it).

The WSJ displayed those two passing stats in a Cartesian plane and demonstrated that the QBs in quadrant II, the upper right with the highest numbers in both categories, were known to have the most success in the NFL. Griffin's (x,y) point in that plane was better than almost all QBs coming out of college in the last thirty years. It was another data point that proved the WSJ correct because Griffin had the best rookie passer rating (not rushing rating) in NFL history. RG3 didn't just inch past the others in passer rating history, many of which turned into NFL greats, RG3 blew them away. Did I mention that his passer rating for a rookie quarterback was the best in NFL history and was almost 9% better than Dan Marino's rating? There are a couple of $100 million QBs on this list.

Highest Passer Rating (Qualified), Rookie Season
Rk	QB	Year	Team	Cmp.	Att.	Pct.	Yds	TD	INT	PR
1	Robert Griffin III	2012	WAS	233	351	66.4%	2906	18	4	104.2
2	Ben Roethlisberger	2004	PIT	196	295	66.4%	2621	17	11	98.1
3	Dan Marino	1983	MIA	173	296	58.4%	2210	20	6	96.0
4	Russell Wilson	2012	SEA	208	330	63.0%	2492	20	9	94.9
5	Greg Cook	1969	CIN	106	197	53.8%	1854	15	11	88.3
6	Matt Ryan	2008	ATL	265	434	61.1%	3440	16	11	87.7
7	Cam Newton	2011	CAR	310	517	60.0%	4051	21	17	84.5
8	Charlie Conerly	1948	NYG	162	299	54.2%	2175	22	13	84.0
9	Charlie Batch	1998	DET	173	303	57.1%	2178	11	6	83.5
10	Andy Dalton	2011	CIN	300	516	58.1%	3398	20	13	80.4
11	Joe Flacco	2008	BAL	257	428	60.0%	2971	14	12	80.3

But, now after a leg injury in the playoffs in 2012, after RG3 carried a team on which his coach had given up, he forgot how to pass the football. Enough said.

The Redskins probably have the best collection of offensive weapons in the NFL. The trio of starting WRs have Santana Moss and Aldrick Robinson as BACKUPS. Both backups would start on half the teams in the NFL. Jordan Reed had an explosive 9-game rookie season at TE with many clutch catches and will dominate if he can stay on the field. And, of course, like most Redskins teams, the running game is one of the best in the NFL. In the last two years, only Adrian Peterson gained more yards on the ground than Alfred Morris, yet no one talks about Morris as one of the best in the NFL. The more they ignore the Redskins, the better are the odds that they will sneak up on teams.

Defense:
When Joes Gibbs came back to coach, one of his first decisions was hiring a strong defensive coordinator in Gregg Williams. One of the first things Williams did was make sure the Skins signed middle linebacker London Fletcher. Fletcher was a sideline-to-sideline tackling machine. If he put hands on you, you would go to the ground. Fletcher was an undrafted free agent from a DIII school who became the fifth leading tackler in NFL history, but only got voted to the Pro Bowl two times, and even then it seemed it was out of pity at the end of his career. The last two years, it was apparent that Fletcher had lost a step. Whereas before he could go all the way to the sideline to get a sweeping ball carrier, get his head in front, and make the tackle, in the last two years that head didn't get in front so often, and then even when it did, he often uncharacteristically failed to bring the carrier to the ground.

Given the huge importance of a middle linebacker, it was understandable why the Redskins went from a perennial top-ten D since Gibbs' first year back in 2004, to one of the worst last year. It was more than Fletcher but the MLB spot was important. This year the Redskins have a young LB crew with Keenan Robinson taking over for Fletcher. Robinson was outstanding in preseason, going sideline-to-sideline and making brilliant open-field tackles.

So, the Redskins front seven should be very good. They picked up a sack machine in Hatcher who bolsters a D line that get Jarvis Jenkins healthy. The front seven will make up for any deficiencies they have in the secondary, but there is improvement there too. Getting Ryan Clark back adds much needed leadership at safety. David Amerson now has a year of experience after a good rookie season at CB. Breeland, a rookie CB, received a ton of accolades in the preseason.

Special Teams:
When the Redskins signed Jackson at WR, it made it more likely that they would use Roberts in kick and punt returns. Roberts was outstanding at both in the preseason. When the Redskins lost ST coach Danny Smith's leadership before the 2013 season, their special teams became a joke. Gruden and new coordinator Ben Kotwica have stressed the importance of special teams and the players seem to have figured it out. That and the threats of losing jobs seems to have made many much more enthusiastic for special teams than in 2013.

Outlook:
I see the Redskins winning at least 10 games, which should be good enough to win the division. The quicker that RG3 demonstrates that he is close to the RG3 we saw in the NFL in 2012 and at Baylor before that, the greater that win total will be. If we see that RG3 in week one, 12 wins is very possible. If it takes until week 8, it could be only 8 wins. But, I suspect the greatest rookie QB in NFL history, the one who not only graduated college but graduated in three years, will figure it out pretty quickly.