Five Observations from Game One of the 2015 World Series

Ned Yost, Manager of the Kansas City Royals, treated game one last night as if it were game seven.

Yost was desperate. How could anyone be desperate in game one, you wonder? Well, if I were Ned, I would have done the same thing because game two features the postseason’s best starting pitcher—the Mets’ Jacob deGrom—against the postseason’s worst starting pitcher—the Royals’ Johnny Cueto. 

deGrom	GP	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	P/GS	WHIP	BAA	ERA
2015 Regular Season	30	30	0	0	191.0	149	59	54	16	38	205	14	8	99.2	0.98	.215	2.54
2015 Postseason	3	3	0	0	20.0	15	4	4	2	5	27	3	0	108.7	1.00	.205	1.80

 

Cueto	GP	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	P/GS	WHIP	BAA	ERA
2015 Regular Season	32	32	2	2	212.0	194	87	81	21	46	176	11	13	102.1	1.13	.242	3.44
2015 Postseason	3	3	0	0	16.0	15	14	14	3	7	15	1	1	87.7	1.38	.242	7.88

Yost simply could not afford to leave Kansas City down 0 – 2, so he effectively burned his game four starter, Chris Young, in relief last night. Young might still start game four, but after throwing 53 pitches last night, it is hard to imagine the 36-year old will be very effective or go deep into the game on just four days’ rest. Game four at Citifield will be pitched by a Royals pitching committee on which the Mets should feast. 

Royals relievers threw 150 pitches yesterday. It’s hard to imagine their vaunted bullpen will be at the top of their game today. A key member of that pen, Herrera, threw 35 and will probably not pitch today. Cueto is going to have to be much better than he has all postseason to give the Royals a chance today. 

How was that Inside-the-Park HR Ruled a Hit?

I’m sorry, there is no way the ball that glanced off of Cespedes’s glove, which was then kicked away, was a hit. That was more egregious than Hosmer’s error at first base later in the game. Call that hometown scoring at its worst. 

Why wasn’t Conforto the Designated Hitter and Lagaras playing Centerfield?

I didn’t even think about whom the Mets would DH last night. I thought it was a no-brainer that Conforto would DH, which would allow the Mets to start Lagaras their Gold Glove center fielder in center. Everyone commented about the size of the Royals outfield and that to play well there, teams need three centerfielders. Well, the Mets HAVE three centerfielders including Gold Glove winners and runners up.  

Had Lagaras been in center on that first pitch, it would have been a routine out and the Mets would have won the game. Lagaras came in later in the game for defense and got two hits in extra innings including one in an at bat that reminded me of Shawon Dunston’s at bat in the 1999 NLCS game 5 that preceded Robin Ventura’s grand slam single.  

Lagaras, who was an unheralded minor leaguer, showed just how gritty and competitive he is when he won the starting centerfielder job last year and then won the Gold Glove. He showed it again last night in those at bats. World Series seem to be won when gritty players step up in crunch time, think Lenny Dykstra, David Eckstein, and David Freese. Lagaras should start in center when the DH is in play, which means he should start every game in Kansas City. 

Comparing the Two Teams: The Generalizations

The generalizations about these two teams before the start of the series were: The Royals are a gutsy, never-say-die team that has one of the best bullpens in baseball and a strong defense. They don’t strike out very often, so they put the ball in play and make defenses work. The Mets have a great starting rotation, great closer and live largely by the home run. If the Mets have a weakness, it is in defense up the middle when Juan Lagaras is not in centerfield. The teams were considered so evenly matched that the oddmakers had them even to win the World Series. 

Well, if you judge the entire series by game one, the generalizations look about right. The Mets made errors on the first and last Royals runs (sorry, but the HR on the first pitch was an error), Harvey pitched well (2 ER in 6 innings, if scored correctly), the Royals refused to quit when down by two runs in the middle of the sixth, they made some nice plays in the field and only one error, the Royals bullpen did not allow an earned run in eight innings nearly matched by the Mets’ one earned run in eight, and the game went 14 innings. How even is that?  

Comparing the Two Teams: What Generalizations Miss

If you ran a team, would you rather have a great starting pitching staff with average middle relief and a great closer, or a weak starting staff with a great bullpen and closer? 

When you consider that the starters control the game for about six to eight of the game’s nine innings, I know my choice. I would take the team with the best starting pitching and a great closer and hope I never need the middle relievers, or that I have such a huge lead after pounding the starter that I don’t have to worry. So overall, the advantage for this series should go to the Mets. The Mets starters were 3^rd in WHIP and 4^th in ERA in major league baseball this year. The Royals' starters were 25^th and 22^nd, respectively, in those categories. 

All of which makes me wonder why Collins eliminated his own advantage yesterday. Harvey only threw 80 pitches, or 13.33 pitches per inning, which is fantastic. I was shocked when Collins took Harvey out of the game. He should have gone 8 inning and 107 pitches and bridged the gap to Familia himself. We cannot know if attempting a four-out save was the reason that Familia blew the save, his first blown save since July 30, but every manager prefers to bring in their closer for one inning with the bases empty. Still, as Curt Schilling said on the postgame, that was not much of a mistake by Familia; give credit to Gordon who didn’t miss it. Darling on the other hand, felt that the extra rest left Familia too strong, so his ball wasn’t moving like it normally does. 

Essentially, the Royals are supposed to win on putting balls in play, team speed, scoring a lot of runs, flashy plays in the field, getting a lead and giving it to the bullpen to hold, and the Mets are supposed to win by shutting you out, wearing out your starters by making them throw a lot of pitches, crushing home runs, and giving the ball the Familia. 

But except for middle relief and stolen bases, this Mets team actually does everything as well as or better than the Royals even the things the generalizations believe the Royals do better. The Mets need for middle relievers is simply not as urgent as the Royals given the Mets dominating starting pitching. The Mets superiority is especially true if you only consider the Mets team that was created by the returns of David Wright and Travis d’Arnaud from injury, the call up of Conforto, and the trades for Johnson, Uribe and Cespedes. 

·  Which team scored the most runs, got on base more and slugged with the best since the All Star game (which shortchanges the Mets who did not transform their offense until weeks later)? The Mets, who scored 5.11 runs per game versus 4.53 for the Royals. The Mets OBA and OPS were 0.328 and 0.770. The Royals, 0.320 and 0.736. Mets win every category; 

·  Which team played better defense for the season (post All Star game split not available, which shortchanges the Mets)? The Mets, with a Fielding percentage of 0.986 (10^th in MLB) vs 0.985 (11^th) a virtual dead-heat, but it goes against the narrative that the Royals are superior;

 

·  In the postseason, before the World Series, the Mets beat their opponents by 1.89 runs per game over 9 games and the Royals outscored their opponents by 1.55 runs per game in 11 games;

So, the primary Royals advantage is playing four games at home if this series goes seven games. The Mets should gear up to prevent that. One way to prevent it is to leave the starters in the game. They are young and can throw a lot of pitches and come back on five days rest and do it again. Let the starters be the bridge to Familia, especially when playing with the DH. Games two (deGrom v Cueto) and four (Matz v Young and committee) look like Mets wins. So, it will all come down to how well the Mets do in three (Syndegaard v Ventura) and five (Volquez v Harvey). I like the Mets chances in all four.

In 1969, Tom Seaver opened game one of the World Series and lost against a dominant Orioles team. Everyone believed their best chance to win the World Series ended with that loss. Instead Koosman beat McNally, Gentry beat Palmer, Seaver beat Cuellar, Koosman beat McNally and the Mets were champs. A repeat of that pattern L-W-W-W-W could easily happen this year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A Tale of Two Quarterbacks

This is a story about two quarterbacks. The first QB—call him QB A—is a Heisman Trophy winning quarterback who was drafted by a sorry NFL team within the top-two picks of the first round. His head coach during his rookie season adapted his playbook to install the read-option play to help him break into the NFL as a starter in his very first game. The coach would mix in the read-option to keep defenses guessing the way all coaches use play-action passes. In his rookie NFL season, he threw passes for significant yardage, helped triple his team’s win total from the year before and was named to the Pro Bowl. He broke rookie QB records, including most rushing yards. He was named the NFL’s Rookie of the Year.

Sadly, QB A’s story turns somewhat negative in his second NFL season. His passing yardage and touchdowns declined. He had developed into a bit of a moody player and was often seen sulking on the bench during a losing season and criticized for failing to show leadership. You think you know how this story ends, right? Read on.

The second QB—call him QB B—was also a Heisman Trophy winner the year before he was drafted. He was also drafted in the top-two picks. His rookie-year NFL coach also adapted his playbook to install the read-option play to help him break into the NFL as a starter in his very first game. The coach would mix in the read-option to keep defenses guessing the way all coaches use play-action passes. In his rookie NFL season, he helped double his team’s win total from the year before and was named to the Pro Bowl. He broke rookie QB records, including most rushing yards. He was named the NFL’s Rookie of the Year.

QB A only won six games his first year and seven his second. QB B, however, played for a team that was 3 – 6 at the bye week of his rookie year when his coach had declared the season over and that over the remainder of that season everyone would be playing for their jobs for the next season. But, this rookie QB B would not listen to that coach. He gave a rousing locker room speech that ten-year veterans said made them believe they could run through walls for QB B. QB B put the entire team on his shoulders and willed them to seven straight wins and a division title with precision passing and play calling that confused defenses.

Clearly, if either of the two were going to lose their starting job by year three, it would have been QB A, who exhibited fewer passing skills compared with QB B. In fact, QB B broke the all-time rookie passer rating, blowing away Ben Roethlisberger’s 2004 record and Dan Mario’s 1984 record. At 90.6, QB B still has a career passer rating that is significantly higher than QB A’s 84.8, largely because of better precision (63.9% career completion percentage vs. 59.2%), especially on deeper passes.

But, QB A kept his job. In fact, QB A’s starting job was never in doubt because QB A is a prodigious talent capable of carrying a team as a franchise QB to many Super Bowl titles. In fact, in his third season, still running the occasional read-option, having kept his starting job, he led his team to twelve wins and a playoff bye. In his fourth season, still running the occasional read-option, he also led his team to a division title and a playoff win, but the team eventually lost to the NFC Champions. Now in his fifth season in 2015, still running the occasional read-option, he has led his team to a 6 – 0 record (Update 12-5-15: now 11 - 0; the only undefeated team left in the NFL), one of five teams that remain unbeaten. No, QB A kept his job and QB B, apparently the better talent, lost his job.

Of course you know by now that QB A is Cam Newton and QB B is Robert Griffin III, a prodigious talent drafted the year after Cam, who was unlucky to be drafted by a team that changed head coaches in his third season. RG3 was not Jay Gruden’s QB and Gruden made that clear on day one. Jay Gruden does not believe an NFL team should run the read-option. No, Gruden’s system requires NFL QBs to sit in the pocket and get rid of the ball quickly, throwing short passes from the pocket and rarely running out of the pocket.

Are you listening to Gruden, Aaron Rogers (best career passer rating in history), Tony Romo (second-best career passer rating in history), Drew Brees (7^th-best career passer rating in history), Russell Wilson (two-time NFC champ and Super Bowl winner), and Cam Newton? Did you listen Steve Young (4^th-best career passer rating in history and Super Bowl Champ)? Why won’t you guys just sit in the damn pocket as Jay Gruden believes you need to in order to win?

As RG3's first-year head coach in 2014, Gruden gave RG3 five starts to prove himself, and those five starts were interrupted by RG3's ankle injury. The starts came in Redskins' games 1, 2, 9, 10, and 11. Then, Gruden benched RG3 in favor of McCoy, who had won the starting job over Cousins because Cousins' play was atrocious during RG3's injury. Then, McCoy's poor play led Gruden to start RG3 again in games 14, 15, and 16. RG3 played well in games against the Eagles (W) and Cowboys (L). That was the last time RG3 played for Gruden. Eight starts with interruptions for injury and a benching. Compare that with how Gruden treats Cousins.

When RG3 took a sack, fumbled or threw an INT behind an O-line that was a sieve in 2014, Gruden publicly criticized RG3 for "not seeing what was there" and "holding the ball too long". When Cousins replaced RG3 and threw INTs at a rate that was 50% higher than RG3's rate and fumbled more often, there was no comment from Gruden. The same is true of Gruden's comments on McCoy. Despite Griffin's troubles behind a bad offensive line, he outplayed his backups at QB, but you would never know it from Gruden's comments.

RG3 was never Jay Gruden’s QB and that is why the Redskins have a prodigiously talented franchise QB capable of leading their team to many Super Bowl titles sitting on the bench waiting for his release, while the Carolina Panthers realize the benefits of sticking with Cam Newton; they might even win a Super Bowl behind Cam Newton this year, a QB who has fewer skills at the position than RG3.

One footnote: Jay Gruden has picked his QB over RG3. That QB has struggled mightily in his career. Last week, while trailing 24 - 0 to TB and Cousins still struggling mightily with poorly thrown passes, Jay Gruden pulled out a play that Jay Gruden does not believe a QB should run--the read-option. It worked. Imagine that. I guess it is acceptable to run the read-option if you are Jay Gruden's guy. That play eventually led to a win and may have turned the season around. Imagine that. Now, imagine what the Redskins could be doing if their franchise QB weren't sitting on the bench.