Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Sean Taylor RIP

“Of all the words of tongue or pen, the saddest are these: It might have been.” –John Greenleaf Whittier

Yesterday I had planned to write my first post in a while. I was going to write that the Redskins playoff hopes were not even close to dead, which many of the pundits had been saying. How could they be dead when they were only one game behind the sixth-seed Lions and the Redskins owned the tie breaker against that team? I was going to write that the main reason for their three heartbreaking losses in a row, starting with the Eagles loss, was the absence of Sean Taylor, but that there was a lot of reason for hope because Taylor would soon be back.

The Redskins had held a 15 - 7 lead late in the game against the Eagles when Taylor sprained his knee, sadly, directly in front of my seats at FedEx Field. I remember watching him as he was resting on his hands and knees on the field long after he finished a tackle and I was thinking, “he’ll be back.” But, Taylor never returned.

Without Taylor to contend with, the Eagles started to exploit the part of the field—the deep middle—that Taylor had vacated. When Taylor was in the game, the Eagles did not even try to go near there. The Eagles scored four TDs and won after Taylor left the game—all of the TD plays went down the middle of the field.

I had planned to write that when Taylor was in the Redskins secondary, Terrell Owens had never even come close to having the kind of game that he had two weeks ago against the Skins. Owens scored all of the Cowboys’ points in that game two weeks ago. A quick search on YouTube would explain why Owens never had success against the Skins before. Taylor owned Owens. That's "owned" with a capital O, as can be seen starting at about 3:15 in this video of 2006 meetings. Owens hates being hit and Taylor was one of the most vicious hitters in the NFL.

Owens feared Taylor. Even when Taylor was a rookie playing his first game against the All-Self-Important Owens, Taylor sent a message. Taylor put Owens on the trainer’s table at 1:35 of this video. Then, on a play going to another receiver far away from Taylor, Owens ran into Taylor’s part of the field and shot off his mouth. The rookie Taylor told Owens to shut his mouth...with his forearm...to Owens’ head (2:15) (In his rookie year Taylor wore number 36 and Owens played for the Eagles). Those two videos only cover 2004 and 2006, but they give a good idea of the kind of player he was. They don't include great plays from the Skins 2005 playoff run and they don't include his performance this year, probably his best. He was not a dirty player, but he did inflict pain.

Immediately after the Eagles loss this year I was going to write about how frustrated I was that Taylor was going to miss his first game this year and that it was going to be the game against Owens. Since the first day of the season I was looking forward to seeing Taylor shut down Owens.

Owens never had a 100-yard game against the Skins when Taylor played and never had more than one TD. In four games over three seasons against a Taylor-led secondary (Owens was suspended for both games against the Skins in 2005) Owens had a total of 18 catches for 165 yards and just two TDs for an average of 4.5 catches, 41.3 yards and 0.5 TDS per game. Not bad, but Owens averages were significantly higher against other teams in those years. And it wasn’t like Owens’ teammates were not trying to get him the ball. It was that Taylor had repeatedly separated the ball from Owens and left him writhing on the ground in pain.

So, yesterday I was going to write that the Redskins were still very much in the thick of it, and because Taylor was expected back in a week or two, that they would make a run.

And, then I heard the news.

I feel terrible about the senselessness of this. This is an absolute tragedy of the kind that Aeschylus and Shakespeare could write: A warrior in the prime of his life, revered by many, who is about to embark on great conquests but is struck down by some fluke just before he realizes greatness.

I feel sadness for his family and friends. But, I did not know him personally, so I cannot feel what they do. What I do feel is this: I feel horrible for me as a huge fan of the Redskins, which is much, much, much, more selfish. I think that Taylor and his family would understand that and would appreciate it. It is homage to him.

What I know is that when he played for the Redskins, they were feared, and that kind of intimidation is extremely valuable in football. What I know is that Sean Taylor was as valuable to the Redskins franchise as Favre is to Green Bay, Owens is to Dallas, Peyton Manning is to Indianapolis, and Hester is to Chicago. People talked about how valuable Deion Sanders was because he took away one half of the field when quarterbacks refused to throw to his side. Well, Taylor was a sideline-to-sideline player who took away the whole field beyond fifteen yards from the line of scrimmage.

How good was Taylor? Gregg Williams was the Assistant Coach or Head Coach in charge of defense on three teams: The Titans (when they went to the super Bowl), the Bills, and now the Redskins. Williams has had the number one defense in his conference several times and had a top-ten defense for the Skins in two of his three seasons here. Over that time he has coached some outstanding defensive players (think about Kearse, Arrington, any of several Redskins Pro Bowlers, and dozens of Titans and Bills Pro Bowlers). After one season of coaching Taylor, Williams unequivocally said that Taylor was the best defensive player he had ever coached.

How athletic was Taylor? Larry Coker, his head coach at the University of Miami, said on today’s Mike and Mike show on ESPN that he recruited Taylor out of High School and couldn’t decide if he was a running back, wide receiver, linebacker, or defensive back; he felt he could play at a high level at any of these positions...for a National Championship team. Running back Clinton Portis said on today's John Thomson Show that when he was at Miami and they were recruiting Taylor he had the opportunity to see Taylor's high school football video where Taylor had played running back. He said he immediately asked, "what position does he want to play here (at Miami)?" When the coaches said "safety" Portis said "Good." Portis was afraid of losing his job.

Sean Taylor was not just a good safety in the NFL. He was a great safety and probably the best. Many have said he was a great safety because he had the size of a linebacker and the speed and cover abilities of a cornerback. And, he had a legendary love of laying the big hit. He not only played at a high level, he made the other ten players on his defense better, which is how the loss of just one player can make that much of a difference. He was just 24 years old, had not yet reached a peak, and had a long, great career ahead of him.

As long as he roamed the Redskins’ secondary, they were going to be very competitive. As a fan, I looked forward with optimism to the future success of the Skins. When the Redskins made the playoffs two years ago, it was a Taylor TD return of a fumble recovery against the Eagles that won it and clinched their playoff appearance. In the next game, in the Redskins only playoff win that year, it was an extremely athletic return of a fumble for a TD against the Bucs that gave the skins an insurmountable lead in what was a close game.

Taylor began his career in the NFL at a high level as a rookie and was getting better every year and every game. Before his minor knee injury three weeks ago against the Eagles, he was leading the NFL in interceptions. He’s still leading the NFC. Fittingly, this year, he handed Brett Favre his milestone, all-time interception record. Six more years of his kind of play and we would probably have been talking about several of the Championships that he helped the Redskins win, and we would have certainly been counting down the days until his induction in Canton.

“…the saddest are these: It might have been.”

God, I am a heartbroken fan today.

Rest in Peace Sean Taylor

Monday, November 12, 2007

No Jansen, No Rogers, No Taylor, No Marcus, No Thomas, No Thrash, No Moss...No Mas

I love it when fans of other NFL teams say that injuries are a part of the game and everyone has to deal with them. They usually only say that when their team has not been decimated by injuries the way the Redskins have. I hate it when even Redskins fans do not understand what this Redskins team is experiencing and instead blame the coaching as if Gibbs were playing right tackle.

The Redskins entered the game without Marcus Washington, a Pro Bowl Linebacker; without Santana Moss, a Pro Bowl receiver who earned the Redskins’ receiving yardage record just two years ago; without the starters on the right side of their offensive line; and without first-round pick and three-year starter Carlos Rogers. Yet, they still held a nine-point lead early in the fourth quarter against the reigning NFC East champs yesterday.

They held a nine-point lead because of their deep bench. Their second and third stringers filling in for the right side of the offensive line were able to open holes for Portis for most of the day and keep pass rushers off of Campbell. When they didn’t open holes for Portis, Portis took it upon himself and exploded around the edge or through tacklers to earn 137 yards rushing, the highest total in the NFL yesterday.

They were able to get and hold that lead because the Eagles were afraid to throw the ball deep down the middle with Sean Taylor playing a deep safety and taking Eagles’ heads off and helping to pick up the slack in the secondary due to the missing Rogers.

They were able to get the lead because their remarkable depth allowed James Thrash to step into Santana Moss’s spot and catch two touchdown passes in addition to making the first two Redskins’ plays that went for 30+ yards this year. Thrash did all that and still made great plays on special teams in punt and kick coverage.

So, it is not that the Redskins do not have depth. They had tremendous depth. The problem is that they have blown through that depth with injuries upon injuries at the same spots—offensive line, wide receiver, and the defensive secondary.

The Redskins lost the game in the fourth quarter. With the Skins winning by nine points, the Eagles outscored the Redskins 20 – 3 over the last 12:36 of the game. Why? Sean Taylor did not play in the fourth quarter because of a knee injury. The Eagles threw three touchdown passes that went right up the middle of the field—the place that they were afraid to throw or run to when Taylor occupied that spot. James Thrash did not play in the fourth quarter because of a knee injury and could not add to his two TD performance. And, the line failed on a couple of occasions to open holes wide enough to get a crucial yard that would have either gotten them in the end zone (Yoder and Portis) or kept drives alive (Sellers) and the Eagles offense off the field.

Redskins’ fans have criticized Gibbs all year for what they deem conservative play calling. Today they are criticizing Gibbs because he ran Portis three times from a first-and-goal at the three in the fourth quarter. These are the same people who criticized Gibbs for not running Portis with a first and goal from the one-yard line against the Giants. I cannot stand arm-chair quarterbacks who have no idea what they are talking about.

You wanted Gibbs to throw the ball there? Okay. Whom is he going to throw to? Moss and Thrash were in the trainer’s room. Randle El was double covered. Cooley had to stay in and help the second and third stringers block. Where was Gibbs going to throw the ball? And you ALL know that if Gibbs called for pass plays in that spot and they failed to score a TD or got called for a false start or holding, you would have said “why didn’t he use Portis when they had the chance? What are we paying Portis $50 million for if he cannot get three yards?” You Gibbs critics know you would have, so please, do us all a favor and shut up.

JC Walks on Water
Jason Campbell played the best game of his career yesterday. It was his sixteenth professional start, which officially gives him one full year of starts. He completed 68% of his passes for three TDs and no INTs, made some beautiful touch passes, and took a huge step forward. The only thing missing from his repertoire now is a few more Favre-like comebacks that end in victory. He has two overtime drives that ended in victory this year and he has come close several times in losses, most recently driving the Skins 61-yards against the Giants to the one-yard line in the final 2:19. A few wins in regulation would go a long way to put the finishing touches on a quarterback who should be a perennial Pro Bowl player.

Where are the Redskins?
With all of the bellyaching from Skins fans, you would think they are in last place. No, last place is where the Eagles reside, which I was happy to remind Eagles’ fan in mid-celebration in the FedEx Field Club Level yesterday. You would think the Redskins were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. No, even the 1 – 8 Rams, who surprisingly blew away the pundit-favorite-for-NFC-champ-Saints, can still make the playoffs. You would think the Redskins had no legitimate shot at the playoffs. No, they are one game back in the loss column from the Giants and Lions, who currently own the last two seeds for the NFC playoffs. Oh, they beat the lions—handily—so all they have to do to knock the Lions out is finish with the same record. Oh, and they have one more game against the Giants, who have a much tougher schedule than the Redskins from here on out.

I would have loved to see the Giants beat the Cowboys yesterday and keep the Skins within two losses of the Brokeback Boys and the NFC East title, but even the fifth seed is better than the seed that eleven other NFC teams will earn this year. Anything can happen in the playoffs, especially when you are as good as the Redskins are and you could be much healthier by January.

Where were the Redskins’ Fans?
How is it possible that at every game that I attend at FedEx Field (six- to eight-per year), I am surrounded by the opposing team’s fans? If you are a Redskins’ fan and you sold your seats to Eagles fans—a division rival—when the Skins are very much in the playoff hunt, you should have your season-tickets privilege revoked. It is bad enough to sell to a Dolphins fan for a Dolphins game, but selling to the most obnoxious fans in the NFL? Dante has reserved a circle for you.

Thursday, November 01, 2007

The 2007 NFC East Contenders Strength of Schedule

First a Summary of the Season So Far
Excluding the games played against the NFC East team in question, the following is the combined winning percentage of the opponents of each of the contenders for NFC East (through games played last weekend):

Giants 0.420
Cowboys 0.447
Redskins 0.622

Clearly, the Redskins have had a much tougher schedule than either the Giants or the Cowboys so far.

To date, Redskins opponents have a win percentage differential that is 20.2% greater than the Giants opponents and 17.5% greater than the Cowboys opponents. Annualizing those numbers, the opponents that the Redskins have played to date would finish the year with an average record of 10 – 6; The Cowboys opponents would finish 7 – 9; and the Giants opponents would finish with just under 7 wins. Considering that we are talking about an average, that is a HUGE difference. Imagine if you had a schedule that showed that EVERY week you had to play a team that was 10-6? On average, the Skins have done that, have a winning record, and are within striking distance of the NFC East title.

So what should we expect the rest of the year?
The following shows the strength of each of the NFC East contenders' remaining schedule (excluding the remaining games against each other because if the team in question doesn’t win those games, the rest of its schedule really doesn’t matter):

Giants 0.545
Cowboys 0.512
Redskins 0.356

It is almost a perfect inverse of the strength of schedule so far.

The Redskins are two games back in the loss column from the NFC East title because their NFC East competition has played the softest parts of their schedules already and the Redskins have played one of the most difficult schedules in the NFL in 2007. Now, there will be a reversal of fortunes. I’d say the Redskins are sitting pretty.

Just look at that remaining schedule. If they can get a couple of players back (including an O-lineman), the Redskins will march through the second half and take the NFC East title.