NJ's Star Ledger Writer Makes one of his Infamous Predictions

For Redskins fans outside of DC, I thought you would like to know that Paul Needell of the Newark Star Ledger made one of his infamous predictions on Friday. He believes that tomorrow Eli Manning

...is going to torch the Redskins secondary.

We should listen to what the writers from this paper have to say...and expect the opposite. This is the paper that had the Giants playing in the Super Bowl last year after six games. This is also the paper that last week wrote this:

We'll assume the Eagles will figure out how to catch punts and win this one pretty easily.

Skins 20 – Eagles 12

Quick Comments

Attitude
I love how everyone on this team willingly does the little things that lead to wins. Did you see Santana Moss level the defensive back when Campbell scrambled down the right sideline for a 20-yard gain against the Eagles? Did you see Clinton Portis when he nearly decapitated the Eagles player that intercepted Campbell’s pass?

How about in the game against the Dolphins when Portis launched his body at the Dolphins Lineman who was pursuing Campbell and knocked him five feet out of bounds? (at 20 seconds) How about last year in the preseason when Portis made a tackle after an interception and separated his shoulder? Moss is a superstar receiver. Portis is having a Hall of Fame career. Most players like that avoid contact. Gibbs kept Portis out of the preseason precisely because he knows he cannot stop Portis from playing the game the way it is supposed to be played, which risks injury in meaningless preseason games.

JC
Jason Campbell took a HUGE step forward on Monday night. I’m not saying he will never have another bad game, but he proved he can handle a lot of pressure this week. It was his first Monday Night football game. It was his first game against the Eagles in Philadelphia and his first win against the previous year’s division winner. He has shown since his very first game that he gets it. He knows that his job is to get the ball downfield. There are a lot of QBs in the NFL that never get that concept. Oh, they talk a good game, but when the pressure is on, they run. Campbell waits. He waits as long as possible for his receivers to get open and then he’ll step right into a defender to deliver the ball. The 18-yard pass to back-up Tight End Yoder that set up Portis’s touchdown run is one example of many excellent decisions in his brief career. He scrambled away from Kearse and had some running room but Yoder was a little farther downfield and he delivered on the run for an 18-yard gain.

Yes, Campbell threw a pass that he should not have thrown and it was picked, just as he did against the Dolphins. Yes, Antwaan Randle El made an acrobatic catch on a ball thrown behind him and prevented another interception, similar to a ball he got his hands on last week to knock down and prevent another pick. Yes, Santana Moss was so open on a play in the fourth quarter that it looked like pre-game warmups. One of the best things about his game is his ability to learn from his mistakes and then not let them affect the next play. Campbell is going to be a top-five QB in this league for a long time.

Another OL Injury
Randy Thomas is the second offensive lineman to go down in as many weeks and he is the second from the right side of center; that worries me a little. I’m not worried because the Redskins lack depth. I’m worried because that depth is being challenged. They won’t DL Thomas unless they are out of the playoff hunt so Thomas could come back in December. Until then, they might have to play fourteen more games with backups on the right side, backups that cannot afford an injury.

Calls
The call on the field was a fumble when the Eagles receiver lost the ball. Replays showed the ball moving around in his arms before his knee hit the ground. The ball hit the ground after his knee hit the ground, but it was coming out already. Isn’t the rule that refs need indisputable evidence that the call on the field was wrong in order to overturn it? Where was that evidence? That took points off the board for the Skins.

The Back 7
I love the way Fletcher, Landry and McIntosh are playing. They have made the defense a top unit again.

Charles Barkley
At one point in the telecast on Monday night, the players were lining up to run a play. The reason that I know they were lining up is that I heard the crowd noise become loud. Unfortunately, viewers did not see the players line up because they had the cameras on Barkley and Kornheiser and Tirico in the booth. They spent the entire third quarter talking to Barkley on mostly non-football related nonsense at a crucial point in the game and went back to the field very late for each play. They did not once mention the importance of what was happening on the field. That was one of the worst performances I have ever seen.

This Week
The Skins play the Giants this week; another big, division game. The Skins are wearing their throwback uniforms, which are the same uniforms that they wore when I first became a fan. I think the Skins will beat the Giants this week like those 1970s Skins teams beat the 1970s Giants.

The Giants secondary is pretty bad. They cannot cover Tight Ends. I learned on Monday night that only Antonio Gates has more TDs than Redskins Tight End Chris Cooley since Cooley came into the league. They cannot cover Wide Receivers. Moss loves to play against NY teams. This may also be the week that Reche Caldwell gets some playing time.

Joe Gibbs is not taking this game lightly. His message has gotten through to the players. Portis said the all of the right things this week. Gibbs kept repeating that the Skins lost twice to the Giants last year. The Redskins can smell a great season and I think they will go full speed in every minute of this game.

If they win they will go 3 – 0 overall and 2 – 0 in the division. They would then only have to go 8 – 5 the rest of the way to meet my preseason prediction.

Skins 16 - Dolphins 13 OT / Preview Part II

One down; fifteen to go

The Redskins defense rose to the occasion on opening day and held Miami to 3.3 yards per rush. Miami was lucky to get a TD, their only one, at the end of the first half when Cam Cameron went for it on fourth down when he should have kicked a field goal. Green barely got rid of the ball.

The new guy, London Fletcher, was all over the field as I expected. He co-led the team with twelve tackles and inspired the offense at half time with a motivational speech. The Redskins offense marched down the field in their fist possession of the second half and scored their only TD of the game. The addition of Fletcher was the main reason that I thought the Redskins would have a top-ten defense this year.

Season Preview: Final Thoughts on the Defense
Last week I gave a partial season preview and focused on the defense. I have a few more thoughts on defense before I focus on the rest of the team.

Rocky McIntosh spent the entire offseason at Redskins Park. It shows. Last year’s first round pick has been all over the field and also made twelve tackles last week including a sack. The youth movement on the D-line should result in fewer injuries.

The win in overtime would have been a win in regulation if Fred Smoot had held on to an easy pick of a ball that hit him in the stomach at the twenty with less than a minute to play. He could have walked into the end zone. While the Skins defense is significantly better than last year and may even be the best defense in the NFC this year, they still cannot hold on to the other team’s gifts. I don’t get it. Still, that is my only criticism of the D (I have one criticism of the O, later). They played as I expect them to play all year and barring injury they will get better.

Preview Part II

Offense
The defense will take the pressure off of Campbell by keeping the Skins in every game. It will take more than one mistake by Campbell to kill their chances for a win before the fourth quarter of a game. Given the poise he has shown so far I do not think there will be many games where Campbell makes multiple mistakes. His confidence is going to grow each game, and he will progress from a guy who only has to take care of the ball to win to a guy who enables his team to jump out early and never look back. I expect to see evidence of that transition by the ninth game this year.

O-Line
The loss of Jansen will hurt, but Heyer and Wade have shown they are more than capable. I also have felt that Jansen has not played nearly as well as before his Achilles injury three years ago, so the decline in talent there is not as dramatic as some believe. Partial proof of that, albeit in only one game, is that the Redskins rushed for 191 yards against the Dolphins who had the fourth best defense in the NFL last year. They lost Jansen early in the first quarter and earned most of those rushing yards in the second half. The O-line has four potential pro bowlers when Cooley is included. Cooley is one of Campbell’s favorite targets and has a new, lucrative contract. Expect him to have a monster year.

Rushing game
As I previewed last week, I expect Portis to have a big year. He touched the ball 17 times for 98 yards and the Skins only TD against the Dolphins. That is a 5.76 yards per carry average; very gaudy. Tonight the Skins face the Eagles who have had one of the worst rush defenses in the league for a while. The last time the Redskins faced the Eagles Ladell Betts ran for 171 yards against them. Keep an eye on Portis and Betts (P&B) tonight.

QB
In addition to the defense, P&B will also take pressure off of Campbell. By not having to put the team’s offense on Campbell’s shoulders, Campbell can develop at a natural pace. But, he has already made some throws this year and last that make me think that he is on the verge of breaking out. The bomb that he threw to Randle El to start the third quarter was perfect. One of the criticisms that I had with Brunnell was his inability to throw downfield and soften the defenses. Campbell’s QB rating for week one was not that impressive (his stats were significantly hurt by the INT that Lloyd should have caught for a TD—my other criticism) until you look at the yards per attempt. He threw for over ten yards per pop. JC can stretch the field.

When I heard that Campbell had spent the entire offseason at Redskins Park to work with Al Saunders and Gibbs to learn the offense, and work with his receivers to develop a rapport, I became optimistic for the Redskins chances. There is no doubt that he has the athletic ability to play in the NFL. There is no doubt that he is a competitor after going undefeated in his senior year at Auburn and last year beating the Saints—a division winner—and the Panthers, who at the time were in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot. Now there can be no doubt about his dedication. He has already cured the few mechanical mistakes that he made last year and is mechanically better at QB than Eli Manning.

Receivers
I guess we don’t have to wonder who the second wide receiver threat is anymore. Randle El grabbed the job from Brandon Lloyd the way cornerbacks have grabbed the ball from Lloyd his whole Redskins career. Seriously, can that guy attack the ball just one time? Campbell’s second pick was Lloyd’s fault. JC put the ball where he needed to put it for the TD. Lloyd just drifted back for it like he didn’t think JC could throw it that far and he wound up out of position. By the time he recovered he was in no position to out-jump the corner.

Skins fans also know that they can count on Moss. He had a terrible game against the Dolphins, dropping three passes that hit his hands (also hurting JC’s rating). That will not happen very often.

Overall Offense
The Redskins defense gave the Redskins offense one of the poorest starting field positions in the league last year by setting the NFL-record for fewest turnovers forced. They compelled the offense to be extraordinary to score. My original preview gave the reasons that I think they will have a top-ten defense this year, so I will not rehash that. This year, the offense will have better field position.

Special Teams
The Redskins lost four games by three points or less and six games by six points or less. Shaun Suisham joined the team for game twelve and promptly missed his first field goal try. He hasn’t missed since. His game winner in OT last week was as close to equidistant between the two uprights as possible with plenty of distance. He kicks like he has ice water in his veins. I am very confident in him. I do not expect the scores to be as close as last year, but in tight games the Redskins have an advantage that they didn’t have until Suisham arrived.

Derrick Frost can not only punt, he can tackle. If I had any criticism on special teams it is that I would like to see Randle El go North more often and East-West less often, but that is a small criticism. He has done a fine job as punt returner.

Conclusion
This year, the offense will have better field position, a better running game, better receivers, and a better quarterback for the whole season. The defense may be the best in the NFC. They have an excellent kicker. They have a year of experience working with their new Offensive Coordinator who put together dominating offenses in Kansas City. They have the best coaching staff in the NFL and the players respect them. And, although the strength of schedule at the end of the season can be very different from what it seems at the beginning (recall 2005 when the Redskins ended up with the most difficult schedule by far when it was thought it would be the fifth-easiest based on 2004’s results) the Redskins start this year with an easier schedule than their division opponents.

Since most pundits picked the Skins to finish dead last with about six wins, I think this team is going to surprise a lot of people. I predict they finish 11 – 5, which is certainly going out on a limb given last year’s record. I predict that they will win the division. I predict that they will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

After beating Miami, they have four tough games left on their schedule—New England, Chicago, and two against Dallas. A split of those four (hopefully with the wins against NFC teams and at least one against Dallas) and a split of the Eagles series will give them a cushion of two games to meet my prediction. Those two losses are likely to come against any of the Giants (division games are always tough), Lions, Cards or Green Bay. So a 3 -2 record against the latter means they would have to sweep the Jets, Bucs, and Vikings games. An 11 – 5 record, then, is not a huge stretch.

Hail

2007 Redskins Preview

I’m back…it feels like I’ve been away for a long time.

Once again I planned to write my season preview before the first game, but once again work kept me busy. Here is a preview of the preview.


SUPER BOWL !!!!!!!!!!!!!


I don’t want to get carried away, but this is the NFC we’re talking about. Did you see what the Colts did on Thursday to the Saints—the team that many have already crowned as NFC champs? Trust me; the NFC is wide open. Almost anyone can take it. It’s just that the Skins have the best shot.

I’ll provide plenty of evidence to support this position in the actual preview, but here is a hint: It’s all about defense and the running game.

What’s that you ask? How can I be so confident in a team that had the 31st ranked defense last year? It’s simple math. It’s all about addition, subtraction, infinity, and regression to the mean.

Add London Fletcher, a perennial top-5 tackler, to the all important Middle Linebacker (MLB) spot and subtract Lemar Marshall, a good second-string Outside Linebacker, from that MLB spot and you get infinite improvement to the defense. In Gregg Williams’ defense the MLB is responsible for reading the offense and calling the defensive play. Fletcher is a terrific, sideline-to-sideline player with experience, who has averaged over 140 tackles a season in the last six years. His 146 tackles last year was third-best in the NFL. And, he hasn’t missed a game in that six-year span. When Joe Gibbs let Fletcher play this preseason, he was all over the field.

Add an exceptionally talented, hard hitting, and competitive LaRon Landry to the Strong Safety position and subtract Adam Archuleta and it’s the same infinite improvement. If you just watched that YouTube video and have seen fellow safety Sean Taylor play, then you know why they call the place between Taylor (#21) and Landry (#30) “Area 51.”

Add experienced cornerbacks like Fred Smoot to the depth chart and they don’t have to worry about losing Springs to injury nearly as much as they did last year..."to infinity and beyond.”

The knock on the Skins defense is that they do not have a good defensive line. Trust me; their back seven is so good they are going to make the front four look like the Steel Curtain. This defense is going to unleash a fury on opposing teams that Skins’ fans have never seen, at least not in my lifetime. One omen: When the starters were on the field during the preseason the Redskins did not allow a touchdown.

How about regression to the mean? Gregg Williams is one of the best defensive coaches in the game. His defenses have ranked in the top-ten for most of his career; his unit earned a three ranking in 2004—his first year with the Skins—and a nine ranking in 2005. Last year was a complete fluke. In addition to the two poor personnel decisions (Marshall and Archuleta), the entire defensive line, two of the linebackers, and half of the secondary missed significant playing time due to injury. That is not likely to be repeated, especially since they are a lot younger on the line due to some addition and subtraction.

On to the running game: Can someone explain to me how a running back like Clinton Portis gets overlooked? I believe that there is a bias against the Redskins in the media, and some things, like Peter King’s selection of the 500 best players in the NFL, go over-the-top to prove my point.

You remember Peter King. He is the clown who made it his “mission” to keep the all-time receptions leader (when he retired) out of the Hall of Fame. Well, Peter King does put Clinton Portis in the top 500, but only after he selected SEVENTEEN running backs ahead of Portis.

Look, I’m not so biased that I would have an apoplectic fit trying to convince someone that Portis is a better RB than, say, LT (even though Portis did have better stats in his first four years than LT), but putting seventeen running backs ahead of Portis on that list is absurd. It’s beyond reason. But then again, people always said that King knows Laurence Maroney, Marshawn Lynch, Michael Turner, and Willie Parker better than anyone. Who, you ask? Those are four of the seventeen Running Backs that King thinks are better than Portis.

I haven’t even brought up the fact that 121 players were selected to that list before the first Redskin was chosen, or that the only mention of the Redskins in the top-121 was this tidbit when he placed Champ Bailey sixth on the list:

"Skins rue Bailey-for-Portis deal, big-time"

A digression: Did you know that Gregg Williams did not teach Giants MLB Antonio Pierce anything? Pierce was an undrafted free agent who was given the Redskins’ starting MLB job after playing special teams for a few years. No, according to King, Pierce is a

“Self-made, productive playmaker.”

But, Marcus Washington, a second-round linebacker (Editor fixed an error on where MW was picked) who was not selected to a Pro Bowl until he left the Colts to play for Gregg Williams; that Marcus Washington is, according to King

“A Tony Dungy-developed star.”

I kid you not. Believe me, I am not digging for this stuff. It just bowls you over if you are paying attention.

Back to the running game. Here are the facts: In 2004, Clinton Portis’s season was cut short by an injury near the end of the season while he was trying to become the first running back in the history of the NFL to ….drum roll… rush for 1,500 yards in each of his first three years in the league. He finished 185 yards short of the record.

In contrast, King-favorite Marshawn Lynch is almost there. Lynch will become the first player in NFL history to rush for 1,500 yards in each of his first three seasons if he gets 1,500 yards in each of his next three seasons.

In Portis’s first four years—all healthy—he rushed for 5,930 yards and 45 touchdowns with a 4.7 yards per carry average. He added 1,129 yards and 4 touchdowns as a receiver. He missed most of 2006, his fifth year, due to injury but he still managed to get over 500 yards and 7 more TDs. If memory serves me correctly, only two Running Backs in NFL history had more rushing yards than Portis after his first three seasons, and the great LT was not among them (nor greats Laurence Maroney, Michael Turner, or Willie Parker). LT had 5,899 rushing after four seasons with a 4.3 yard per carry average. Close, but no cigar.

Portis owns the Redskins single-season rushing record. This is a storied rushing team. This is a team that had Hall of Famer John Riggins. This is a team that had exceptional running backs in Larry Brown, George Rogers, Stephen Davis, Gerald Riggs, Earnest Byner, and Mike Thomas. This is a team that had the Hogs blowing open holes for guys like Timmy Smith, whose 204 rushing yards is still a Super Bowl Record.

Look folks, overlooking Clinton Portis is like overlooking Alex Rodriguez because he didn’t break Aaron’s home run record in his first five years. I’m not saying Portis will finish with the most rushing yards in history, but if he has another five years like his first five (and Peter King and Dr. Z’s Hall of Fame votes are revoked), then Portis is a LOCK for the Hall. The guy just turned 26-years old. TWENTY-SIX!!!! What does Peter King know that I don’t? (Don't answer. That is a rhetorical question.)

In the worst-case scenario, if Portis misses significant time due to injury, Ladell Betts can still get them to the promised land. He stepped in last year and rushed for 1,153 yards on 4.7 YPC in nine starts.

So, let’s summarize this preview of a preview:
• the Redskins defense is going to be outstanding this year; and
• Portis is due for an outstanding year behind a very good offensive line;

Football championships are won with great defense and a great ground game.

And I haven’t even begun to talk about the year Jason Campbell is going to have….

Hail