Skins v Giants: 2006's Last Hurrah (for Both Teams?)

Well, this is it for the Redskins. Their playoff hopes ended a few weeks ago. But, Giants fans are still dreaming.

And, I mean dreaming.

Today, Jay Greenberg of the NY Post writes that the Giants should win this weekend because the Redskins are a bad team. Hey, Rumplesgreenberg, did you take a nap on November 11 and just wake up? This is your wake up call. Read this out loud to hear how it sounds:

Sunday, 11/12 BEARS L 38-20

Monday, 11/20 at Jaguars L 26-10

Sunday, 11/26 at Titans L 24-21

Sunday, 12/3 COWBOYS L 23-20

Sunday, 12/10 at Panthers W 27-13

Sunday, 12/17 EAGLES L 36-22

Sunday, 12/24 SAINTS L 30-7


The Giants have lost six out of their last seven games and Greenberg calls the Redskins a bad team. Bwaa Ha Ha.

Let’s see: The Giants last seven games include losses to the Jaguars, Cowboys, and Saints. The Redskins played those same teams recently, but the Redskins won. And, the Redskins also beat the Panthers and should have beaten the Eagles. So, in games against recent common opponents the Redskins are 4 – 2 and the Giants are 1 – 5.

This is not an argument that the Redskins are good or even that the Redskins will beat the Giants. No, the point is to show just how delusional Giants fans like writers Greenberg, Magaraci, and Needell have become. Even if the Giants beat the Redskins, they will be demolished by their first-round opponent. Just don’t tell that to any writers at the NY Post or Newark Star Ledger.

Here’s my take on the game: Two weeks ago, after the Redskins played their best game on defense and shut down the Saints’ NFL-leading offense, I said that the Redskins could win out. All eleven starters on the defense played in that game and played well. Then, Marcus Washington, their best linebacker, hurt his knee in practice the following week and was put on IR. Then, Shawn Springs, their best DB, broke his shoulder on the first play of the next game and was put on IR. Then, Philip Daniels, their best DE, developed a heart-rhythm problem and missed most of the next game (our prayers are with him). That’s one very important player from each of their three units.

In a nutshell, that is how this Redskins season has been from the start. I should have known on opening night against the Vikings when Pierson Prioleau, a very good safety and excellent special teams player, sprained a knee on the opening kickoff without even being touched. And, of course, he missed the entire season.

With all of the Redskins injuries this year, their coaches spent most of the season evaluating young talent at important positions for next year. Jason Campbell has shown he is the real deal. First rounder Rocky MacIntosh got his first strart last week taking Marcus Washington's place and looked great. They signed kicker Shaun Suisham, who has been a perfect eight-for-eight on FGs since missing his first one, a fifty yarder. Suisham could take the team lead in scoring with a good week, which is pretty pathetic given it will only be his fifth game as a Redskin.

And, Ladell Betts took over for the injured Clinton Portis and has shown he is the prototypical Gibbsian running back who can gain huge chunks of yards running between the tackles. He’ll break the team record if he rushes for his sixth straight 100-yard game against the Giants. Betts gives the Redskins tremendous options. What NFL team wouldn't want a talented young running back like Clinton Portis? How many would pass up the chance to get Portis fo a couple of high draft picks?

The Giants have everything to gain from playing hard and playing to win. The Redskins have nothing to gain but pride and experience. If the Giants do not win this game with all of the Redskins injuries, it will only be because the Giants are a really bad team that has no business even thinking about the playoffs. It will only be because the Giants are a worse team than the Redskins. At least the Redskins have hope for next year. For the Giants, this is the best it is going to be for a long, long time; enjoy it while you can Jay Greenberg, but don't bet the ranch this weekend.

The Counter Trey family will be screaming from our seats in 118 on Saturday, spending a little time at the Library of Congress, and we hope to get a chance to pay our respects to President Ford. Happy New Year!

Redskins 16 Saints 10

The Redskins defense showed up for two games this year: The Panthers game and this week against the Saints. It didn’t show up for the win against the Cowboys—it gave up about 400 yards in that one. It didn’t show up for the win against the Jags. The offense saved that one...in OT. It didn’t show up in any of the losses. But, against the best offense in the NFL, it showed up. This is why Redskins fans are frustrated this year. If the defense had played the way everyone expected them to play for the whole year they would have coasted to the division title. Hell, if they just played that way in six other games they would have coasted.

The win on the road against the Saints was excellent. Campbell took care of the ball. That’s three times in five starts that he took care of the ball. He looks poised and he made at least one great throw—the one to Moss for the touchdown. And the swarming defense made it hold up. It was fun.

Quick hits:
1. On the Comcast postgame show, as the Redskins were celebrating victory, Steve Czaban complained that Gibbs didn’t go for a touchdown on fourth down, late in the fourth quarter, with a 13 – 10 lead. I’m tired of this guy nit picking. The field goal forced the Saints to drive 62 yards for a touchdown. Instead they only drove 46 and the Redskins took over on downs. Had Gibbs gone for it and failed to get the two yards he needed, the Saints would have tied it at the end of regulation and forced overtime. Does anyone think the Redskins could have pulled out an OT win on the road and in a dome? Lets just say the odds weren’t with them. Does anyone believe that after an overtime loss that Czaban would have congratulated Gibbs for his guts? Puhleeze. Czaban needs to be quiet…for the rest of the year.

2. Carlos Rogers showed me up. I made a joke about how Rogers can’t catch anything, not even a disease, and so against the Saints he gets his first INT of the year (second? of his career). It wasn’t easy, though. As one Redskins player said, he caught and bobbled it three times so he probably wants credit for three INTs. He bobbled it despite having position, squaring up to it, and getting both hands extended. This is the picture I was looking for: (Hat Tip: Curly R).



It is no coincidence that the two games in which the Redskins defense showed up were also Rogers' two best games of the year. Against the Panthers he shut down Smith and Keyshawn whenever they lined up on his side. Against the Saints he gets a huge pick and deflects the Saints game winning touchdown pass in the endzone. I expect this first-round pick to play like that in all sixteen next year.

If Rogers and the defense play that way, the Redskins will dominate next year. This year they had four losses by three or fewer points, and two additional losses in which they led at halftime (Colts and Falcons). It won't take much to turn it completely around.

3. Back in October I posted about an article that I read on the Giants in the Newark Star Ledger (NJ’s newspaper with the largest circulation and one with big-time Giants coverage). At the time the Giants were 4 – 2. In the article, which spanned about 75% of the front page of the sports section, Mike Garafolo ticked off the reasons why the Giants would easily win twelve games and walk away with the division championship. BWAA HA HA HA.

I pointed out that there were six tough games that Garafolo gave to the Giants as victories without much question—the Bucs, Bears, Cowboys, Eagles, Saints, and Redskins. I said that at best they can count on four wins from those six games and probably would lose three and not win the division, especially if two of the losses were to division foes. Hell, I conceded the sweep of the Texans and Titans. Wrong.

So the Giants lost to the Bears; then they lost to the Jags; then the TITANS; then Dallas…all in a row. The Skins showed them how to beat the Panthers and they followed the script. But last week’s loss makes it three losses out of those tough six including two to division foes; and guess what? They won’t win the division.

Guess what else? After Paul Needell, Magaraci and Garafolo pissed on the Redskins all year; writing about how bad the Redskins were; how Joe Gibbs is on the hot seat; how Mark Brunnell sucked; how happy they were that Dan Snyder could not field a winner (ignoring last year’s playoff run that went deeper than the Giants’ run); how, in the “What We Learned” column, how the Redskins were the worst team in the division; guess what?

The Giants will probably lose to the Saints this week which sets up their last game of the year as the game to decide if the Giants even make the playoffs. The Giants play the Redskins that game. How sweet would it be to knock the Giants down into the basement, tied with the Skins with the same record? After the Star Ledger pissed on the Redskins all year, they will probably wind up with the same record with a season series split. Local papers should never celebrate Super Bowl Championships in October.

Redskins 19 Eagles 21: It's Mathematical

The Redskins loss last week has made it official: They are eliminated from playoff contention. Math reminds me that there is a new SAT question making the rounds:

If Carlos Rogers, the Redskins cornerback:
a. Exchanged body fluids with a person infected with HIV;
b. Exposed an open sore to a leper; or
c. Was exposed to a high concentration of bird flu;
What would he die of first?




Okay.


It's a trick question.


Carlos Rogers never catches anything.

Redskins 14 Falcons 24

When the Redskins lost to the Eagles, I wrote that it was the right time to make a switch at quarterback to Jason Campbell, but only because the Redskins playoff hopes were virtually, if not mathematically, dead. Mark Brunell was not the problem; the Redskins’ defense was the problem. I wrote that switching to Campbell while their playoff hopes were still alive would be asinine because the long history of the NFL shows it is very rare for a young quarterback, getting his first starts, to lead his team to the playoffs. I wrote that Joe Gibbs played this perfectly, despite the wailing from Skins fans who didn’t get it; despite the Skins fans who said that Gibbs has lost it. Yesterday, we saw why it is rare for young quarterbacks to lead their teams to the playoffs. Young quarterbacks make stupid mistakes.

That interception Campbell threw in the third quarter when he was in the grasp of the defender was “ill advised.” It came on the opening drive of the third quarter with the Redskins leading 14 – 10. The Skins had handed off to Betts three times on that drive and he gained twenty-seven yards. They had already moved to within field goal range at Atlanta’s twenty-one yard line. The interception was returned to the Redskins twenty-five and two plays later, the Falcons had their first lead in the game, which they never relinquished. I’ll bet Campbell eats the ball in that situation in the remaining games this year.

Jason Campbell is very talented and that INT was his first rookie-like play in three games; it had to happen eventually. He looked like a field general when the Skins marched for fourteen points on their first two drives to take a 14 – 0 lead. The second touchdown came on a bomb to Moss. It wasn’t a perfect throw, but it worked because Moss attacked the ball. The call and Campbell’s calmness in executing it were impressive. At worst the ball would have been picked and it would have pinned the Falcons deep like a great punt. Instead it gave them a huge early lead that looked insurmountable until the “young” quarterback showed up.

With a 14 – 0 lead, the offensive line blowing open huge holes, and Betts running through the holes as if the Falcons were playing in slow motion, I thought that there was no way the Redskins would lose that game. Ladell Betts got 155 yards on 28 carries. That’s a great 5.53 yards per carry average and there were few plays that resulted in little or no rushing yards. On that opening drive in the third quarter he averaged nine yards per carry before the INT.

After the loss to the Eagles, it was time to make the investment in Campbell. It was time to take some capital out of this season and allocate it to next year. Based on what I’ve seen, it is an investment that should start to give returns next year, which is a pretty quick payoff by historical standards. He will have had seven starts in the NFL by the end of the season. He will learn from his mistakes pretty quickly given the tremendous coaching talent that the Redskins have around him.

And there is still the ability to have fun this year. Winning the Super Bowl is every fan’s dream, but if that is the only standard by which to judge a season, then there would be millions of unhappy fans each year. There are two games left against hated division rivals. It would be fun to ruin their seasons.

Still, had the Redskins won yesterday I would have written today that they were back in the hunt because of the horrid NFC. Amazingly, every team that was ahead of the Skins that the Skins needed to lose, lost yesterday—the Vikings, Packers, Rams, Lions, 49ers, Giants, and Bucs—that’s a perfect 0 - 7. What are the odds of that? (Update: My thirteen-year old son told me the chances of that happening are 1 in 128, which is exactly right if the teams are evenly matched (i.e. if the point spread is truly even). How the hell did he figure that out at thirteen? I didn't know that stuff until college.)

As I watched Gibbs’ postgame press conference, I got the sense that Gibbs was fuming. I think he said something about getting away from “Redskins” football. Later we learned that Gibbs hurt his hand. Did he hurt it punching something? The Redskins got away from Redskins football and blew a chance to climb back into the hunt. Was Gibbs angry at himself for switching to Campbell too soon? If so he shouldn’t be. You have to play the odds, and the odds dictated that they had to play Campbell after the Eagles loss. Sometimes you play the odds correctly and still lose, but in the long run you have to play the odds if you want to win.

Next Year
Last week the Redskins beat the Carolina Panthers with great defense. They played defense the way I expected a healthy Redskins defense to play all year. All eleven starters played. If they were healthy all year, they would certainly be in the playoff picture today. Yesterday, Shawn Springs missed another game, this time due to a hamstring injury. He had practiced all week, but told the coaches he felt it on Sunday morning. I like Springs, but is he quitting on this team? The defense gives up too many big plays when Springs doesn't play.

Joe Gibbs is sending the right message. He has basically said that the rest of this season is about auditioning for a job next year. He told them he is looking for character guys who don’t quit even when they are out of the playoffs. And he is giving Campbell his chance to get up the learning curve. I hope to see first-round draft pick Rocky McIntosh get some more playing time at Linebacker this year, too.