The NFL HOF and Questionable Sports Media Judgment

Many of the major sportswriters have some affinity to the New York area. They typically either grew up, attended journalism school, or worked at media-parent headquarters here (NY Times, ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN/Sports Illustrated/Time Warner, etc.). Even those that never set foot in NY cannot avoid its influence because it is the media center of the world.

New York probably has the biggest sports following in the country; I think only Boston, Chicago and St. Louis rival it and only the former two can be considered media centers. Los Angeles is too laid back and doesn’t even have a football team. Miami? Sure they won two World Series and love their Dolphins, but there are more Mets and Yankees fans at Marlins’ games than Marlins’ fans. Dallas, Houston, Seattle, Milwaukee, Phoenix, Cincinnati, Cleveland are not even close. Philadelphia lives in perpetual NY sports envy.

Anyone who lives for any length of time in New York and who reads the sports pages or watches the local sports news cannot help but get caught up in the New York sports media frenzy. I know, I’ve lived here my whole life.

The Mets and Yankees battle for the back pages of the tabloids in the spring and summer; the Jets and Giants battle for the back pages in the late fall and winter. And, in late summer and early fall, all four are battling for media attention, and there is plenty of space and tape for all. This ignores the Rangers and Islanders and Knicks and Nets and MLS, and the major golf tournament that takes place here typically once per year, and tennis’s US Open, etc. that all grab media attention. And, when a New York team is also successful, they get more attention than any other item of world news. "Ahmadinejad--isn’t he the new Giants wideout and half-brother of Cincinnati’s Houshmandzadeh?"

I believe that many NFL writers have been influenced by New York's media complex, perhaps none more than the more seasoned writers who were writing when the NY Giants were winning Super Bowls in the 1980s and 1990, or in 2001 when they made their last SB run. I believe most of them have a favorable bias towards the Giants. Even if they were raised in Kansas, many could not help but get caught up in the New York media hysteria. Is that just selective perception on my part? Perhaps.

Yet it seems that anyone associated with those successful Giants teams either gets disproportionate adoration when they are good at what they do--think Bill Parcells and John Fox--or a free pass from criticism when they are not so talented (Jim Fassell). The following, from Peter King's latest edition of Monday Morning QB, is just one of many examples of fawning over former Giants one can find in the sports media:

PANTHERS (Spartanburg, S.C.): It's hard to imagine a player not wanting to play for John Fox. What more do you want from a coach than a man who puts you in the best position to win, with a competitive team, and who looks you in the face and tells you what's what? Every time I'm around his team, I appreciate the hold he has on it -- and the fact that his players know he'll do whatever it takes to win, playing whomever he has to play to get that win.

Jeez, Peter, try subtlety when courting a lover.

Now, I think Fox is a pretty good coach, too. But, this is just the latest of many examples of fawning from the media over these guys. It is rare to hear criticism of them. Even after Parcells left the Giants in shambles when he quit suddenly, Peter King, “Dr. Z”, and Len Pasquerelli write that Parcells can do no wrong.

This bias raises questions about sportswriters’ judgment when they have a Hall of Fame vote. Surely, no team was more of a threat to the Giants in their Super Bowl years than the Washington Redskins. Yes, the Cowboys won three Super Bowls in the early nineties, but other than in 1993 the Giants weren't that competitive in those years. When the Giants were competitive, the Redskins usually stood between them and the Super Bowl, like 1986 when the two teams met in the NFC Championship game, or 1987, when the Redskins succeeded the Giants as Super Bowl champs, and 1990 and 1991 when first the Giants and then the Redskins took home Lombardis. Of course, the Redskins kicked off the bitter rivalry when they won the NFC Championships after the 1982 and 1983 regular seasons.

So, it makes one pause and wonder: If these writers are biased in favor of all things Giants, can they possibly be biased against all things Redskins? Does that explain why Art Monk is still waiting for his call from Canton? Does that explain the invective that Dr. Z and King write about Monk whenever his name comes up on the Saturday before the Super Bowl? One or two more votes in any of the past six years would have given Monk his rightful place in Canton.

Isn't it outrageous that a team that played in five NFC Championship games and four Super Bowls in a ten-year span has only two Hall of Fame inductees--Head Coach Joe Gibbs and Running Back John Riggins? If Gibbs did not get in the HOF on his first ballot someone from the commissioner's office would have started an investigation. But, hmmm, if the sportswriters are biased against most things Redskins, why would they have bothered electing a Redskins player from that era? Where did Riggins begin his NFL career again? Oh yeah, the NEW YORK Jets.

Cameron or Green?

The Mets acquired Shawn Green on Tuesday. The Diamondbacks also sent about $6.5 million to the Mets to defray some of his cost. Green is signed through 2007 with a $10 million option or a $2 million buyout for 2008. Had the Mets kept Mike Cameron this year and picked up their option on his contract next year, the total cost for each player during Green’s remaining term with the Mets (assuming the Mets do not pick up their option on Green in 2008) would have been virtually equal. Were the Mets shortsighted in dumping Cameron? You be the judge:

Shawn Green’s 2006 Statistics:
G: 115
BA: 0.283
R: 59
OBA: 0.348
HR: 11
RBI: 51
SB: 4
OPS: 0.778

FLD: 0.988
Assists: 1 (Rank: Last among MLB RFs who qualify for fielding leadership)
Range Factor: 1.73 = ((PO + A)*9)/Innings Played (Rank: Last)
Zone Rating: 0.840 = balls fielded/balls hit in typical zone (Stats Inc.) (Rank: Last)


Mike Cameron’s 2006 Statistics:
G: 105
BA: 0.264
R: 69
OBA: 0.347
HR: 18
RBI: 58
SB: 19
OPS: 0.828

FLD: 0.983
Assists: 6 (Rank: 5th among MLB CFs who qualify for fielding leadership)
Range Factor: 2.81 (Rank: 7th)
Zone Rating: 0.892 (Rank: 8th)

Speaking of defense, Carlos Beltran is leading all National League centerfielders in assists with ten while the next closest—Cameron, et al—have six. Beltran also leads NL centerfielders in Range Factor, Zone Rating, and double plays. He should get his first Gold Glove award this year despite the excellent season the Cubs’ Juan Pierre is having.

Pierre has had a comparable number of chances as Beltran and has yet to make an error compared with Beltran’s mere two errors, but the difference between zero and two errors over the course of a season is pure luck. Also, Beltran’s range and arm put him over the top. Pierre’s Range Factor is only 86% of Beltran’s and Pierre has no double plays and only three assists.

A Gold Glove for Carlos should also put him over the top in the NL MVP vote. More on that in a later post.

Portis Patois

I have to admit, Redskins fans, that some of the things that Clinton Portis has said lately have bothered me. I understand the NFL is not like amateur sports and that there is a hierarchy when it comes to players on professional teams. But, I also know that the flatter that hierarchy is, the more cohesive the team will be.

I didn’t like to hear Portis say that there was no reason for a running back of his caliber to be playing in a preseason game and risking injury. My immediate thought was: What does a guy like Ladell Betts (and Joe Gibbs) think about that statement. Ladell has been a solid contributor to the Redskins getting nearly four yards per carry when Portis was resting. He was a high draft pick and is young. In addition, he has been an excellent citizen and great teammate. Well, I found out what Ladell though about it. Here is how Mike Wise of the Washington Post described it; Wise was writing a story about the friendship between Betts and Rock Cartwright, who are roommates in the offseason:

Imagine being best friends with a guy whose professional goal was to take your job. Awkward? No, it's NFL reality, the same reality that allows two role-playing running backs to survive in a world of diva ballcarriers.

Like Portis, who wondered why a player of his caliber should even have been playing in the preseason last week. "I wouldn't say that bothers me," Betts said. "I understand a player with credentials feeling that way. He's entitled to his opinion. But I don't agree with that. There is a game speed you get in the preseason that's impossible to simulate in practice. We don't hit and tackle in practice like a preseason game.

"And the idea if you get hurt, you should get hurt in the regular season also doesn't make sense. I mean, you can get hurt in practice any day of the week. So we shouldn't practice? That's just me."

The other news item with respect to the running backs is that the Skins traded for 25-year old T.J. Duckett to add depth because of Portis’s injury. Duckett was a first-round draft pick for the Falcons and is a short-yardage monster who has scored 31 touchdowns in 55 games. But, because the Redskins had pretty good depth at running back already with Betts, Cartwright, and Mike Sellers—another short-yardage beast who scored 7 touchdowns last year—I wondered how the backups would take the news. According to today’s Washington Post they were shocked, frustrated, and angry. I would have rather seen the Skins get another offensive lineman for that draft pick, but what do I know. I’m sure Duckett will be very good.

Revisiting the Skins v Seahawks Playoff Game

This is the first time I have read an analysis of January's Skins-Seahawks playoff game that is nearly identical to mine.

Who is to Blame: Minaya or the Wilpons?

Last year, before the start of the 2005 Major League Baseball season, I had a friendly disagreement with an acquaintance from my sons’ little league program. We are both Mets fans, but we had the exact opposite take on the Mets recent acquisitions—Beltran and Martinez.

My take was that the Mets finally got it right by acquiring Beltran, who was a five-tool player just entering his prime, and signing him to a long-term, albeit pricey, contract. At the time Beltran had just given one of the most remarkable performances in MLB playoff history and almost single-handedly carried the Astros to the World Series. My only concern was that he was willing to sign with the Yankees for much less than the Mets had offered and I wondered whether he wanted to play for the Mets at all. My friend’s take was that the contract was just too big. I don’t think he discounted Beltran’s abilities, but he didn’t like the dollar amount of the contract.

At the time, I had also read that Pedro Martinez, a pitcher acknowledged by practically everyone to be past his prime, had a tear in the labrum of his pitching shoulder. The article explained that it wasn’t anything to be concerned about because Pedro had been pitching with the tear for some time. My view was that it was one thing to pitch with an injury when you are 29-years old and quite another when you are 34. My acquaintance’s view was simply that he was Pedro, a future Hall of Famer.

The Mets had to offer Pedro a four-year deal or else he would have re-signed with Boston, his preferred team. I felt that the Mets would be lucky to get two good years out of Pedro, but beyond that it was the Wilpons’ money to throw away. Although there is no salary cap in baseball, the Wilpons have been known to get tight fisted, especially right after they make bad, expensive deals. The thing I worried about was blowback in years three or four of the Martinez contract with the Mets sitting on their hands when it came time to sign talented players.

I’ll have to admit that in 2005 my acquaintance’s take looked a lot better than mine. Although I was one of the few Mets fans who saw the value that Beltran delivered in 2005, superficially at least, Martinez looked like the better signing in 2005. Beltran played hurt last year without complaint and did many of the little things to help the team win, but his numbers were not what most fans expected. They booed Beltran mercilessly. But, player acquisitions should never be judged in their first year, especially when it is the first of four for an old pitcher with a lot of mileage or the first of several for a young player just reaching his prime.

Now it is 2006 and Martinez has not even been able to give the Mets the two good years that I thought he could. He has had two stints on the DL this year and he has lost his fastball. He started out quickly with five wins in five starts but it has been all down hill ever since. To his credit, he is a pitcher, and he has used his guile to get batters out despite losing his velocity. In one sequence of pitches in his last game he struck out a batter who was late on a 77-mile per hour fastball. How can a major league hitter be late on a 77-mile an hour fastball you ask? Pedro had set him up with a few 72-mile per hour changeups. But, you need more than guile in October.

So, here we are in August and the Mets are running away with their division thanks to the play of Beltran and Wright—who are likely to split the New York MVP vote and allow Pujols, Howard or Berkman to take the NL MVP trophy—and the cast of Reyes, LoDuca, Delgado, Martinez, Glavine, Trachsel, and Wagner, and others who have played well as a team. But, the Mets are in big trouble.

When the top of your rotation is 34-years old or older and you give away solid young pitchers like Kris Benson, a legitimate number three starter, for practically nothing, you are only asking for trouble. Tom Glavine might never pitch in another game because of a blood clot in his shoulder. In all likelihood Pedro will never even get close to the pitcher he was even as late as 2004. And, now that Omar Minaya realizes how bad it looks, he is in full “cover-your-ass” mode and has contrived that he traded away Benson to stockpile pitchers for situations like these. What?! Here is how Mets.com describes Minaya’s view:

"That was the original plan all along," said Minaya. "I'm big on pitching and you always want to have numbers in pitching."

Minaya said the Jan. 21 trade in which the Mets acquired John Maine and Jorge Julio for Kris Benson is an example of improving the club through the numbers equation. The Mets subsequently traded Julio for Orlando Hernandez.

"Obviously, you don't plan on having some of your younger guys get hurt, but by having more pitchers available, then you can handle the injuries that transpire," Minaya said.

Minaya is actually saying that he was planning for all of these pitching injuries by trading away a terrific young starting pitcher to help him stockpile other pitchers. Okay, let’s look at what he did: He traded Benson for John Maine and Jorge Julio. Maine is a rookie who has been hot and cold, but is certainly not someone the Mets could count on in October. Julio was a complete bust and Minaya dumped him for Orlando Hernandez, whom the Rockies were only too happy to dump themselves. To portray the Benson trade as Benson for two guys currently in the Mets starting rotation is absurd. The Mets could have gotten Hernandez for practically anything as the Julio trade proved. They didn’t need to trade Benson to get him.

The Mets could be playing with a rotation of Benson, Hernandez, and Trachsel and at least have a fighting chance to win the National League pennant. But if Martinez cannot find his fastball—or even get off the DL—and if Glavine can’t pitch again this year, the Mets will be lucky to beat the Reds in the Division round of the Playoffs.

I am not writing this simply to bash Minaya because he is certainly an improvement over Phillips and Duquette, but he is not the genius that many make him out to be. He blew the Delgado negotiations last year by sending a Hispanic assistant who tried to con Delgado into signing by leveraging their common heritage. Delgado was so turned off by it that he signed with the Marlins for less.

In virtually every other move—from Martinez to Beltran—he relied on the Wilpons to open their wallet. At best, Minaya has done a better job simply because he got the Wilpons to spend their money and because he wasn’t the guy who traded Kazmir.

At worst, Minaya is the guy who traded the two most precious assets that a Major League team covets, namely high-quality, young, starting pitchers (Benson) and gold glove centerfielders with power (Mike Cameron) for little in return.

I have already written about Benson, but did you know that in the last ten years including 1996 there have been ten different centerfielders who have won a gold glove in MLB? Out of those ten, only six have ever hit thirty or more home runs in a season and Cameron was one of those six. So, who did the Mets get in return for Cameron, the precious asset that every team covets? Xavier Nady, a part-time rightfielder. Nady was a solid player, but he wasn’t a precious asset. In fact, the Mets thought so little of Nady that they quickly traded him for a 40-year old set-up reliever who is on borrowed time.

And, what are the Mets trying to acquire at the moment? Starting pitching and a good defensive outfielder with some pop, of course.

So, no, Minaya is no genius. He deserves credit for signing Beltran, but that just showed he had an ability to get the Wilpons to open their wallet in 2005. This year is a different story. I would much rather have heard Minaya say what I think is the truth. Namely, that the Wilpons told him he had to dump salary if he wanted to take on Delgado’s contract. That is the only thing about the Benson and Cameron trades that makes any sense to me. Then, Mets fans could focus their blame on the Wilpons, who have repeatedly shown they lack the will to put a championship team on the field. Despite the fact that I completely buy the “Moneyball” philosophy, there is no excuse for lacking that will in a major market like New York.