Counter Trey

McNabb Must Go; Defensive Schemes Must Change

2010-11-28T17:12:00.004-05:00

If it wasn’t clear before that Andy Reid knew exactly what he was doing when he traded Donovan McNabb to a division rival, it should be perfectly clear now. If it wasn’t clear that the 3-4 defensive scheme does not fit the Redskins personnel before, it should be perfectly clear now.

Even with a 3-4 defense, if the Redskins had an average quarterback who made good decisions they would be 7-4 at worst (Swap losses to the Vikings and Lions for wins). If they had an above average QB who made good decisions, they would be 9-2 now at worst (swap additional losses to the Texans and Colts for wins).

How many times will we have to see McNabb under- and over-throw wide open receivers who inexplicably have gotten five yards behind the defense before the coaching staff realizes he is not the answer? Today the difference between winning and losing was the underthrow of a wide-open, seven-yards-behind-the-defense Anthony Armstrong.

But, it is not the poor throws that have been the most frustrating thing about watching McNabb this year; it is his poor decisions. I expect an aging quarterback who is obviously three or more years past his prime to make poor throws, but not poor decisions.

Today, while deep in Redskins territory he threw a seven-yard pass to Santana Moss at about the fastest speed he could throw it. Moss had no time to get his hands up to catch it. It ricocheted off of his face mask and bounced way up in the air and was intercepted at the Redskins nine-yard line. The Redskins prevented the Vikings from scoring a touchdown, and the field goal they scored was less than the margin of victory, but is was a backbreaker to say the least. Throwing the ball that hard was not a physical shortfall of an aging quarterback, it was a poor decision. McNabb could have decided to dial it down. His decision to let it fly cost the Redskins a win.

That wasn’t the only poor decision to cost the Redskins a win. His decision to throw into triple coverage against the Lions when he had a four-point lead with four minutes left in the game was what got him benched the first time. The interception turned a win into a loss. The Redskins are now 3 – 1 against the best teams in the NFC (Eagles, Packers, and Bears) and 0-2 against two of the worst teams (Lions and Vikings).

His decision to run out of bounds to stop the clock with a lead against the Eagles with about 3:53 in the first game should have cost the Redskins a win. The Eagles had enough time to make a reasonable 32-yard throw (not a Hail Mary throw) into the end zone because McNabb had killed the clock by running out of bounds earlier in the quarter. The pass hit an open Celek, Philadelphia's tight end, in both hands in the endzone, but he did not hold on. The Redskins were lucky to win that one. It would have been the first of three losses that McNabb’s poor decisions had cost them.

As for their defensive scheme, I wrote earlier about it and pointed to Washington Post articles that wrote the same thing: The Redskins have an inordinate amount of talent on defense. They should be near the top of the league in defensive statistics. Instead, they are dead last. They were a top-ten defense since Gregg Williams took over in 2004. The only reason they are not a top-ten defense this year is that the coaching staff has changed the scheme and that change keeps the best defensive player in the NFL (Haynesworth) on the sideline. Today, when Haynesworth was in the game, he blew up practically everything that the Vikings wanted to do. When he was on the sideline, the Vikings did just about everything they wanted to do.

In addition to keeping the best player off the field, the new scheme has several players playing out of position, as they alluded to on today’s broadcast. Andre Carter was an excellent defensive end who had eleven sacks last year. This year he is an ineffectual outside linebacker.

It is so frustrating being a Redskins fan.

Sean Taylor (April 1, 1983 – November 27, 2007), RIP

2010-11-26T17:22:00.020-05:00

Current Redskins coach Mike Shanahan has said of Redskins safety, LaRon Landry, that he is the best athlete he has ever coached, and Shanahan coaches linebacker Brian Orakpo, one of the most athletic players in the game. And, don’t forget, Shanahan coached John Elway and traded one great athlete—Clinton Portis—for another—Champ Bailey. Both players will likely end up in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, so that is saying something special about Landry.

It is true that Landry is freakishly athletic, but Mike Shanahan never coached Sean Taylor.

Tomorrow, November 27, will mark the three-year anniversary of the murder of Taylor. He had injured his knee in the Philadelphia game in November of 2007. He was leading the NFL in interceptions at the time. The Redskins were travelling that Thanksgiving weekend and the injured Taylor was allowed to stay home with his family. He was shot in his bedroom when he stood between intuders and his wife and daughter.

Taylor, who was Joe Gibbs’ first draft pick in his second coaching tenure, would be twenty-seven years old today and would have spent the last three years and the next five in the prime of his football career. We Redskins fans can only dream of the championships Taylor and Landry would have helped bring to Washington. That tandem would have been known as the best that the NFL has ever seen.

Taylor, a first-round draft pick (fifth overall) in 2004 and Landry who was a first-round draft pick (sixth overall) in 2007, only played nine games together. Yet, NFL fans had already given a nickname to the space in the defensive backfield occupied by Taylor and Landry. It was known as Area 51, which referenced the sum of their two uniform numbers and someplace in Roswell, New Mexico believed to be occupied by people with alien talents.

YouTube is filled with tribute videos for Sean Taylor and many are very good. I picked the middle two below for their music more than anything. In them you will find the whiplash-inducing hits, but more impressive is Taylor’s unbelievable ability to play the receiver or runner and deliver punishing hits at the same time that he is playing the ball. The jump ball to Randy Moss (#84) of the Vikings is a prime example.

(For new fans, Taylor wore number 36 as a rookie with the Redskins and number 21 thereafter. He wore number 26 while at the University of Miami. And, he wore number one while in High School (blue uniforms).

In mid-air Taylor knocked the ball away from Moss with one hand and began to pull him down with the other (at 2:25 in the first video). However, the ball seemed to hang in the air for seconds, which would have given the gifted Moss the chance to grab it. It was the type of catch that Moss has made many times in his career. Taylor saw that and pushed the ball away with his fingertips like he was setting a volleyball, all while in the air, and then took that same arm and slammed Moss to the ground. Taylor was a freak. I truly believe he would have been known as the greatest defensive player in the history of the game if he had been able to play ten years.

And, while there were some players to which Taylor took exception, especially Terrell Owens, Taylor was not dirty. His hits were punishing, but except for the elbow that he threw to Owens’ head when Taylor was a relatively unknown rookie and Owens was on top of the world, his hits were clean and below the neck. One piece of evidence to support that claim can be found at about 57 seconds of the second video, when a hated Cowboys receiver (#83) was in Taylor’s neighborhood. And, yes, Taylor quickly learned to hate the Cowboys. The receiver’s arms suddenly got short while reaching for a pass in front of him. Taylor could have leveled him without penalty, and I think lesser safetys would have if only because they did not have his athleticism to enable them to pull up. Taylor pulled up and stared down the receiver at the same time. The message was sent.

In these compilations you will find four plays that I will always remember and that make me sad even as I write this, thinking what the Redskins have missed. The first play is the fumble return for a TD against Philadelphia in 2005. That return clinched a playoff spot for the Redskins, the first since Joe Gibbs returned, and it came in Taylor’s second year in the league. His dive into the endzone was the iconic picture that the Redskins used to close their tribute video to Sean Taylor. The second memorable play came in the week after that playoff-clinching game. It was in the playoffs in Tampa Bay. Taylor scooped up a fumble by his ankles almost in full stride, scored a touchdown, and sealed the first playoff win since Gibbs came back. Two weeks in a row; two playoff-caliber winning plays. That is what we came to expect from Taylor.

There is a photo, briefly flashed at 5:45 in the third video, of LaRon Landry alone on the bench with his head down in Seattle. It was during a playoff game in 2007. The Redskins buried Taylor and went on a four-game winning streak at the end of the season to make it there. The entire team had dedicated the season to Taylor. Landry, a rookie, had just done everything he could to help win the game with two picks of Hasselbeck, and the Skins had a late lead, but they could not hold it. I often wondered what Landry was thinking.

The final two memorable plays that I will highlight came in two games against Bill Parcells’ Cowboys. Both can be found in the last video. The first came in a game in 2005 in which the Redskins scored two touchdowns on bombs to Santana Moss in the last four minutes in Dallas to beat the Cowboys 14-13. The Taylor play in that game was the next-to-last play of Dallas's last possession. The Cowboys were on the Redskins 43 yard line and threatening to score the game winning field goal with 1:57 left in the game. On third down, Cowboys receiver Crayton was about to catch a pass to give the Cowboys a first down at the 40. Taylor hit him so hard the ball flew backwards for about ten yards; game over.

The final memorable play that I will write about here (there were so many) came in a tie game in 2006 in Washington after Cowboys tight end Jason Witten caught a pass over the middle with about ten seconds left in the game to put the Cowboys in field goal range. Witten was talking smack as he and his teammates were lining up for the game winning kick. Troy Vincent blocked the field goal try and Taylor scooped it up, reversed course, looped around, was grabbed by the facemask, dislodged himself and returned the ball to the cowboys’ forty-five yard line with no time on the clock. But, the facemask penalty pushed the ball to within field goal range and the game was allowed to continue for one untimed down. Redskins win.

So many of the Redskins’ wins from 2004 through 2007 could be traced directly to Taylor’s play. I still think his death in 2007 hit Joe Gibbs pretty hard and influenced Gibbs' decision to step down after that year.

A compilation of highlights by Matt McFarland can be found at the Washington Post

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/community/groups/announcement.html?wpBlogId=Blog:1e84bf02-7a2a-4444-8787-063cf51b5fa9&plckController=Blog&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&newspaperUserId=1e84bf02-7a2a-4444-8787-063cf51b5fa9&plckPostId=Blog%3a1e84bf02-7a2a-4444-8787-063cf51b5fa9Post%3a5fa7f72d-76be-4b32-8c64-570717ea8104&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest

It's Not the Defensive Talent, It's the Coaching

2010-11-21T11:11:00.003-05:00

Tom Boswell’s column in yesterday’s Washington Post is spot on. I have been saying all year to anyone who will listen that the problem with the Redskins defense is the coaching.

This defense is TALENTED. But when the coaches come in and take a perennial top-ten defense and turn it upside down by going from a four-three to a three-four and when its most important defensive player (Haynesworth) flat out said the three-four does not fit his style of play, which leads to his benching and limits his playing time, then that is poor coaching.

The Redskins went from the top of the league in defense to dead last despite having more talent than before; it is ridiculous. This team could win the division this year just on its defensive talent alone. This defense can overcome McNabb's poor decisions such as the Detroit game when McNabb made a really poor decision to throw into triple coverage deep in Redskins territory when he had a lead and there was only four minutes left in the game, or the Philadelphia game when he ran out of bounds to kill the clock after he picked up a first down, which left the Eagles enough time to throw into the end zone at the end of the game.

With two games left against the Giants, it is not too late. They need to make the adjustment NOW.

…The Redskins have one of the NFL's most physically gifted group of defenders, including a ridiculous eight players who were taken in the top 17 picks in their drafts: LaRon Landry (No. 6 overall), Andre Carter (No. 7), DeAngelo Hall(No. 8), Carlos Rogers (No. 9), Brian Orakpo (No. 13), Adam Carriker (No. 13), Albert Haynesworth (No. 15) and Phillip Buchanon (No. 17).

Few teams have so much raw speed, strength and skill. That doesn't include undrafted London Fletcher, the team's best player.

The Redskins' defense has enough talent, as it has shown the last three years. It's just not being used properly, starting with Haynesworth. You can cut him, you can trade him or you can play him. What you can't do is keep him, and his huge personality, on your team, then deliberately thwart and embarrass him every week...

...Who besides Landry, whom Shanahan now praises as one of the greatest athletes he's ever seen, is clearly better in the 3-4?

Fletcher is going to make his impact in either defense. Nobody's yet blocked Orakpo, whether he's standing up or has his hand in the dirt. Out on his island, Hall, who leads NFL cornerbacks in interceptions and tackles, is only marginally affected by the change.

But Haynesworth is erased and Carter, who had 11 sacks last year, has no true position.

The Eagles' eruption was part of an ugly trend. That was the fourth time in nine games the Redskins have allowed 30 or more points. In their previous 48 regular season games, that only happened five times.

No team switches its basic scheme quickly in midseason. But you can play more 4-3. You can evolve.

McNabb = Campbell + 7 Years of Wear and Tear

2010-10-20T12:06:00.006-04:00

Dan Steinberg writes for the Washington Post and writes a blog. He has a blog post today that highlights almost everything that I have been saying about the Campbell/McNabb "swap" since day one. What Stienberg does not say is that the Redskins basically swapped a young quarterback for an old quarterback who has historically performed as well as the young one at the same points in their careers.

We can talk all day about the leadership that McNabb brings to the table if you would like. The only leadership skills that are important in the NFL are the ones that put games in the win column, not taking responsibility for the team's shortcomings in front of the press.

Steinberg:

Donovan McNabb got the ball at his own 38 yard-line on Sunday, with more than two minutes on the clock and three timeouts in his pocket, needing perhaps 30 yards to be in field-goal range. That didn't happen. Instead, the Redskins went 5-yard completion, sack, incompletion, incompletion. Not to go down this road for the millionth time, but I think we all know what the reaction would have been had No. 17 been responsible for that particular drive.

Now, as a card-carrying member of the Jason Campbell Haters Club, I was happy enough to meticulously run through Campbell's performance in clutch situations last season. (And I love Jason Campbell the guy, I just sided with many of his football critics.)

Looking at situations where Campbell got the ball back in tied games or down by one score with less than six minutes remaining in the fourth quarter or in overtime, I found that Campbell was 44-for-86 for 584 yards and two touchdowns in 17 applicable games, not counting spikes and times he got the ball back with virtually no time left. He also had four interceptions, was sacked five times, and fumbled three times. That was good for a 61.4 rating. The Redskins were 4-13 in those games.

McNabb has already had seven chances at such drives with the Redskins, spread out over three games. The seven drives have produced two field goals, one missed field goal, one interception, two punts, and one turnover on downs.

McNabb's numbers in those drives have been, I dare say, Campbellian: 14-22 for 135 yards, with an interception and three sacks. The QB rating? Try a nearly identical 61.7. The Redskins are 1-2 in these games, rallying to beat the Packers while failing to come up in the clutch against the Texans or the Colts.

Krem's Sports also compared McNabb through six games this season to Campbell through six games last season. Might as well add Campbell through six games in 2008, too.

McNabb '10: 78.8 QB rating, 58.1 completion percentage, 1,561 yards, 5 TD, 5 INT, 0 fumbles lost, 3-3 record

Campbell '09: 82.9 QB rating, 65.6 completion percentage, 1,197 yards, 6 TD, 6 INT, 2 fumbles lost, 2-4 record

Campbell '08: 96.2 QB rating, 64.2 completion percentage, 1,262 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT, 0 fumbles lost, 4-2 record

Now I'll go ahead and quote Matt Kremnitzer, who exactly nailed my (Steinberg's) feelings:

I am in no way trying to say that I'd rather have Campbell as the quarterback of the Redskins than McNabb. McNabb simply brings things to the table that Campbell never will: better pocket presence, a quicker release, the ability to create plays, and being better at throwing deep passes. Simply put, McNabb's career numbers dwarf Campbell's, and McNabb is unquestionably the better quarterback -- not exactly a stunning statement. Still, the Redskins need McNabb to play much better than he has, meaning that he needs to do a better job of hitting open receivers and completing a higher percentage of his passes.

That seems like an accurate paragraph.

(And yes, this headline was just a cheap ploy to get angry comments.)

By Dan Steinberg October 19, 2010; 2:24 PM ET

The only argument I have with Kremnitzer is that it is unfair to compare the career numbers of two quarterbacks with a difference of seven years of experience. Compare them at similar points in their careers and you will find that Campbell actually has better numbers and he played for a team with less offensive talent than the Eagles had.

Texans 30 - Skins 27 OT

2010-09-20T00:13:00.004-04:00

I do not expect to post much this year. I am just writing to say that with a 17-point lead today late in the third quarter, the Redskins had about ten chances to make a single play that would have iced the game...victory Redskins. But, they went oh-for-ten.

Briefly:

• The False start on third and short from the Texans five-yard line late in the fourth quarter that almost certainly would have been a first and goal...which led to...

• ...the chip shot field goal that would have put the Redskins up by ten late in the fourth....BLOCKED

• A Texan third-and-long stopped short but the drive kept alive by an offsides penalty...which led to...

• ...The Texans had a fourth-and-ten on what would have been their last drive but Schaub was able to deliver a pass about 1/1000 of a second before he got leveled. That pass was a jump ball that went thirty-four yards to Andre Johnson. Reed Doughty was in because Laron Landry was hitting people so hard that he hurt himself and had to come out for that one. Doughty had good coverage and reached up on the jump ball and had his had between Johnson's two hands just as Johnson caught the ball. Doughty attempted to rip it out but Johnson moved the ball to the opposite hand while in midair...tying touchdown late in the fourth (See photo).

• In OT the Redskins kicked the game-winning 52-yard FG, but the snap of the ball was 1/1000 of a second after Kubiak called a time out. The second try missed.

But, the main reason I am writing is this: I know McNabb had a great day as far as quarterback statistics go; a great day. He deserves all of the accolades that I have been reading and hearing about after the game. But, four of the plays that I am referring to--plays that if made would have ended the game--had to do with wide-open Redskins receivers deep down the field. Receivers who had inexplicably gotten three-to-six yards behind the defensive backs late in the game...And McNabb overthrew every one of them. Very Frustrating. If he only hit one of those, the Skins would now be 2-0.

The Redskins have had great defenses since the first year that Joe Gibbs came back. If they have done one thing correctly these past six years it is that they have added outstanding defensive talent: Orakpo, Landry, Fletcher, McIntosh, Hall, Rogers (who held on to a pick today!! Okay, so it hit him in the hands chest high and it still took three attempts for him to finally catch it, but he caught it!), Carter, and yes, even Haynesworth, and of course Sean Taylor (RIP). These are/were outstanding players, and most of them were brought in by Gibbs. They have had top-ten defenses ever since.

The one thing they lacked was an offense that could score more than 20-points per game. Last year they scored an average 16.6 points per game. Their defense gave up fewer points than the Super Bowl Champion Saints last year and that is despite suffering blowouts in the last three games after they had given up. If they find a way to score 27-points per game this year, they will make the playoffs.

Compare and Contrast

2009-12-22T13:59:00.008-05:00

Zorn is a good guy, but he was a horrible coach. He was not ready for the job, but that is not his fault. It is Synder's fault. Snyder thought he could run an NFL franchise as GM, but when no one wanted the head coaching position last year because Snyder made the ridiculous decision to hire the assistant coaches before he hired a head coach, and the ridiculous decision to abandon the continuity plan that Gibbs handed to him, Zorn's fate was sealed.

There is only one good thing that came out of the last two years: It puts an end to the Synder era (error). Snyder finally woke up and realized he does not know a thing about running a professional sports franchise.

Sure, it took a significant decline in concession and Redskins-media advertising sales this year and probably not a significant decline in ego, but the reason is not important. Snyder will have to let Bruce Allen run the show or risk losing fans permanently (by the way, what history! I first became a fan when his dad was head coach).

Allen will hire a top-notch coach and talent evaluator and together they will quickly rebuild this team. They have the quarterback (MMW: With real blockers, watch Campbell blossom into one of the best in the NFL). They have several outstanding young players. They only need to add some depth and youth to both lines, and they can do that relatively quickly. They can compete for the playoffs next year.

About Last Night
There is only one explanation for last night's result: The coach quit on the organization and the players quit on their coach. During the week, Allen was named GM and then all of the talk turned to who would be the next head coach. There is no doubt that Zorn is gone, and little doubt that most of the position coaches are gone, so why risk injury? The Redskins did not even practice on Saturday, a typical pratice day in preparation for a Monday night game for teams that have a sense of urgency.

As they said on the Comcast Postgame show, The U-Hauls backed into the practice facility parking lot this week. The analysts on that show have been brutally critical of the Redskins and the organization for quite a while, and rightfully so. But, I think they also got this right: Player-for-player, the Redskins defense is better than the Giants offense. They faced far better offenses this year and shut them down. The only explanation for last night is that they quit.

Summary of the Zorn Years
What I wrote elsewhere after the Saints loss:

...three times in the last two years the Redskins were down by between 8 and 11 points with less than five minutes to play, were in easy field goal range, and faced fourth down. The first time Zorn faced this decision was his very first game against the Giants. You ALWAYS kick a field goal in that situation. But, Zorn has NEVER trotted out the field goal team and has not only failed to win each of those games, but his offense has ALWAYS failed to convert. Game over every time. I thought it was a rookie coach mistake and gave him a pass after that first failure, but he has done it two more times since then. You must play the odds and kick a field goal. Over two seasons of football it may get an extra win or two.

How many times has he kept the challenge flag in his pocket on key plays in close games? How many times has he walked into the losing locker room with all of his challenges intact? Yet, occasionally he will challenge the most inconsequential calls like the challenge of the spot of the ball at mid-field against the Ravens last year. It wasn't a question of whether the Ravens got a first down; even if Zorn's challenge stood up, the player easily had the first down. No, Zorn was arguing for two yards at mid-field in a close game. The reason why this one was especially asinine was that it was his last challenge of the game and there was still enough game left to win. Against the Saints, he did not challenge a thing, yet there was a key play on a Saints scoring drive in which a receiver clearly let the ball hit the ground.

Finally, I still do not believe he understands that when the other team controls the ball in a close game in which they are winning, you need to use your time outs before the two-minute warning or else the other team is going to run the clock down. He rarely uses his time outs in that spot and he has been faced with that situation at least a dozen times.

He makes the same mistakes over and over again. He does not know what he is doing out there.

Now, the mistake in the Saints game that I think has been emblematic of his tenure, but which few have talked about, is the play call on third down just before Suisham missed the field goal. Third and goal from the five and you do not take a shot at the end zone? Are you serious? I get it that in many similar situations you want to run the ball to make the other team burn a timeout, or you want to run another 40 seconds off the clock. But the Saints were out of time outs (because they correctly used their time outs BEFORE the two minute warning while the Redskins controlled the ball with a lead) and there were six seconds to go before the two minute warning. A pass would have burned up as much time as a run in that spot.

There should be no doubt in anyone's mind that a pass had a much higher likelihood of success than a run. Campbell was completing 70+% of his passes that day, like many days, and had averaged much more than five yards per attempt. I also get that you want to protect the ball, which is why if the play was not there Campbell could have thrown the ball into the 300s from that spot.

Zorn must go. These past two years were the biggest disappointment in my 38-years as a Redskins fan because Gibbs handed Snyder and Cerrato a playoff team that had gotten much healthier in 2008, but Snyder and Cerrato blew any chance of success when they dismantled the program that Gibbs built and could not get a simple thing right like the order of selecting coaches.....First head coach THEN assistants. Forcing a head coach to take the assistants that the owner (or athletic director) picked wouldn't even fly in high school football. Amateurs.

Zornies 17 - Elis 23, Very Frustrating

2009-09-14T20:46:00.005-04:00

The Giants have already been crowned NFC champs this morning if you read a New York area tabloid, listened to WFAN sports radio, or read any other media based in New York such as SportsIllustrated.com. The Giants offense was outstanding. Eli is worth every penny. The Giants defense dominated. They are perfect.

Conversely, the Redskins “should have tried harder to land Sanchez or Cutler” (I’m not kidding. That is what some clown on SI.com wrote. He must have written it before yesterday’s games. Campbell’s QB rating is in the 90s, Sanchez, who looked good, is in the 80s and Cutler, OMG, is in the 40s). The Redskins did not improve one iota from last year. The Redskins did nothing on defense.

To the victor goes the spoils...

Cold Water
Okay, time for a little cold water on the face. Every statement I make in this regard will be backed by a fact or statistic.

The Redskins offense actually outplayed the Giants offense yesterday. When the Skins offense was on the field, they scored 17 points. When the Giants offense was on the field they scored 16 points.

Once again, Jason Campbell actually outplayed Eli Manning, albeit by a statistically insignificant amount—Campbell’s QB rating for the game was 93.6 and Eli’s was 93.5. (See the QB comparison below to understand the "once again" reference). No real difference in QB rating, but notice Sports Illustrated is not calling for the Giants to sign Jeff Garcia this morning or for a Manning refund on the $90+ million. But, based on yesterday’s performances they want to replace Campbell with a guy who threw four picks and lost.

Clinton Portis ran the ball better than Jacobs. Look at the numbers. But, also look at some key points in the game. The Giants had third-and-two (or less) and fourth-and-two (or less) three times in the game, tried to ram Jacobs down the Redskins throats and failed every time including one when Redskins safety Horton tackle Jacobs for a five-yard loss on fourth-and-one.

The Only Difference
The only difference in the game was this: The Giants defense scored on a turnover and the Redskins defense did not. One play. Osi scored and Hall did not. That’s it. One play out of 111 was the difference between a Redskins victory and a loss. It’s hard to imagine waking up this morning and reading in the tabloids that the Giants were done this year, if they had lost yesterday, but the media has buried the Skins already.

More Observations
A. I cannot stress this one enough: Maybe Jim Zorn needs an offensive coordinator; one who knows how to call a game; one who has done it before.

There is an old adage in football: offenses are supposed to take what the defense gives them. By the middle of the second quarter in yesterday’s game it was apparent what the Giants were willing to give up. They stacked eight guys in the box on most plays and double-covered Moss. The Giants weren’t going to let Portis or Moss beat them. They made the Redskins try to beat them by throwing to someone other than Moss.

Now, here is the kicker: The Redskins were throwing to guys other than Moss and it worked! The Giants left the intermediate routes in the middle of the field wide open. By the end of the second quarter Campbell was 5-for-5 for 83 yards on crossing routes and tight end seam routes that were in the middle of the field, ten- to twenty-yards from the line of scrimmage. Still, Zorn inexplicably insisted on calling a balanced run/pass attack.

But, that only works in theory before the fact. Once the game is underway and your opponent shows you all of his cards, it is time to make an adjustment. Zorn needed to keep throwing to that part of the field until the Giants proved they could stop it. The only way the Giants were going to stop it was by making an adjustment themselves such as by dropping a few linebackers and safeties in coverage. But, that would have opened up some running lanes for Portis.

B. The Giants receivers made some surprising and amazing acrobatic catches that kept drives alive on key third downs. I bet they surprised Giants fans. I’ll bet they surprised themselves. Let’s see them do it for a whole season before we hand them that crown. The odds are not with them. Either Eli is going to have to get a lot more accurate or they will see some important drives stall.

C. Several comments in the media implied that the Redskins yards and scores in the last eighteen minutes of the game were of the “garbage time,” stat-padding variety. That is pure nonsense.

It is garbage time when a team has no chance of winning, not when they are kicking an onside kick with two minutes left and a touch wins (not ties) the game. Believe me, the Giants did not want to have to defend against that onside kick.

It is garbage time when a defense allows an offense to go down field in ten-yard chunks to eat up the last four minutes of a game, let the team score and still win by two TDs. The Redskins, on the other hand, drove 72 yards in 1:42 to get that TD to Cooley and make the onside kick meaningful.

D. There is a very good chance that we are all going to wake up on Monday, October 19, to find the Redskins right in the middle of the NFC East race. They may even be all alone in first place on that date. Their next five games are more than very winnable. These next five weeks will give Zorn a chance to fix his errors. It will give Snyder a chance to hire an offensive coordinator. It will give the veteran players a chance to wrest control of the team from Zorn. They will be able to work out the kinks and still win. Perhaps they will be firing on all cylinders by that date, who knows.

Some of Offensive Coordinator Zorn’s wonderful calls:
1. On the second play from scrimmage, after Portis picked up over thirty yards on the first play, he calls a reverse pass. A trick play early in the game after you just showed you can play smash mouth with the Giants? It was like Mike Tyson apologizing after delivering a hard punch.

2. Deep in Giants territory he called a fake rocket screen to the right sideline and had Campbell spin 180 degrees and deliver a real rocket screen to Moss on the left sideline. Minus two yards later, I wondered about that play. Now, I’m no genius offensive coordinator like Zorn, but it seems to me that after you bring up to the line of scrimmage the linebackers and safeties who bit on the fake screen, perhaps the only thing worse than an actual screen would be a draw play. Is it me?

3. Deep in their own territory Zorn failed to call even one pass play. The Giants were ten in the box at that point, so there was no way running was going to be successful. Three and out and the Skins had to punt from their end zone.

4. But, the real killer was that he kept going to the running game until it was too late; loooong after it was clear the Giants would overstack to prevent it and loooong after it was clear that the Giants could not stop the Redskins intermediate passing attack.

Campbell's Performance
Here are Campbell’s numbers when he threw intermediate passes in the middle of the field:

Attempts: 17
Completions: 14
Yards: 163
Y/A: 9.6
TDs: 1
Ints: 0

Rating: 126.23

All but one of those passes went to ARE and Cooley, and that one was incomplete to Moss. Cooley and ARE had seven catches each.

Maybe Zorn needs an offensive coordinator who is not so offensive to Skins fans. Seriously, he is in over his head and has a lot on his plate. Zorn cost the Redskins yet another win yesterday.

Redskins Preview Part I

2009-09-13T16:31:00.002-04:00

This will be a brief note to be followed by a more extensive analysis. I just want to address some of the mainstream media predictions for NFC East this year. Absolutely no one thinks that the Redskins can avoid the cellar this year. For example, in response to a question about whether the Cowboys have a shot at the playoffs, Troy Aikman said, “There is only one NFC East team with no shot and that is the Redskins.”

All of this is remarkable considering that they had the talent to be a playoff team last year. They beat the NFC champs, for example, and swept the only other team that could have been NFC champs—the Eagles. That is SWEPT. And, it is remarkable because they are a much better team this year.

They had the fourth best defense in the NFL last year and have improved it immensely with the additions of Haynesworth and Orakpo. In the NFL opener Steelers-Titans game on Thursday, Chris Collingsworth remarked at one point that Ben Roethlisberger had a perfect pocket formed around him in which to throw. He said if this was last year there was no way that pocket would be there because Haynesworth always collapses pockets up in the middle. Several have said that Haynesworth is the best defense lineman in the NFL and Chris Carter said on today’s pregame show that he thinks Haynesworth will be the defensive player of the year.

Orakpo is going to have no pressure because he will not be asked to do a whole lot. He is not joining this defense as a savior, just a role player, albeit a first-round role player. But, he has been a monster defender in college and going against first-team NFL lineman this year. He could get 12- to 15-sacks this year without breaking a sweat.

Considering several of the injuries to the defensive line last year (e.g. Daniels, a leader was sorely missed) led to a non-existent pass rush; considering that they STILL managed to finish fourth on defense in the NFL and second-toughest to score on in the NFC; then you must know that Redskins back seven was outstanding. And, this year they get Deangelo Hall for an entire season.

The one thing this defense lacked was pressure on the quarterback from the front four. They have that in spades now. The Redskins will get many more turnovers this year, they will shorten the field for Campbell and the offense, and they will take pressure off Campbell because he will be managing games with a lead and not running for his life trying to make a comeback.

Speaking of running for his life: The Redskins weakness is a lack of depth on the offensive line. Three of the five starters missed significant playing time last year. All three are back this year. If they stay healthy this year, Campbell will develop into one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

As for the other NFC East teams. It is almost a foregone conclusion that the Giants will win the NFC Championship if the Eagles or Cowboys do not. Let me just ask a few questions here:

Didn’t the Giants just lose their best coach? So, are we to believe that they will not miss Spags? The guy replacing him has already caused controversy because he doesn’t want to be on the sideline with the team. Didn’t the Giants just experience 100% turnover at wide receiver and virtually 100% in the defensive secondary? I heard that all of their wide receivers combined have fewer than 150 catches in their career.

Are we to believe that this team is that much better than last year because they got one defensive lineman back? Remember, this team couldn’t get past the Eagles last year. I’m not even sure that the Giants have the best defensive line in the NFC East anymore, not when you consider depth. Why is Manning a much better quarterback now compared with last year? Is it because he just got a raise? See the post below comparing two quarterbacks. The answer to the riddle is this: Eli Manning is quarterback A and Jason Campbell is quarterback B.

The Eagles are the class of the NFC East? What does that make the Redskins who beat them twice last year? Didn’t the Eagles lose a bunch of players to injury? Didn’t they lose the architect of their defense on the sideline, the great D-Coordinator Johnson? Didn’t they lose their heart and soul on the field in Dawkins?

The Cowboys? Didn’t they lose their best receiver? What have they added to improve their team?

Honestly, I do not get why “last-place Redskins” is an open-and shut case. Often in probabilistic fields like sports and markets, when all of the action lines up one way, when all of the sentiment leans one way without questioning the rationale, as I questioned it above, then usually the opposite happens. How many thought the Arizona Cardinals would be in the Super Bowl last year? Stay tuned.

Quarterback A versus Quarterback B

2009-09-02T16:21:00.002-04:00

Can you guess who we are?

First year as a starter:

Quarterback A:
Starts: 7
Completions: 95
Attempts: 197
Completion Percentage: 48.2%
Yards: 1,043
TDs: 6
INTs: 9
QB Rating 55.4

Quarterback B:
Starts: 7
Completions: 110
Attempts: 207
Completion Percentage: 53.1%
Yards: 1,297
TDs: 10
INTs: 6
QB Rating: 76.5

Winner: Quarterback B

Second year as a starter:

Quarterback A:
Starts: 16
Completions: 294
Attempts: 557
Completion Percentage: 52.8%
Yards: 3,762
TDs: 24
INTs: 17
QB Rating: 75.9

Quarterback B:
Starts: 13
Completions: 250
Attempts: 417
Completion Percentage: 60.0%
Yards: 2,700
TDs: 12
INTs: 11
QB Rating: 77.6

Winner: Toss up

Third year as a starter:

Quarterback A:
Starts: 16
Completions: 301
Attempts: 522
Completion Percentage: 57.7%
Yards: 3,244
TDs: 24
INTs: 18
QB Rating: 77

Quarterback B:
Starts: 16
Completions: 315
Attempts: 506
Completion Percentage: 62.3%
Yards: 3,245
TDs: 13
INTs: 6
QB Rating: 84.3

Winner: Quarterback B

Career through three years as a starter:

Quarterback A:
Starts: 39
Completions: 690
Attempts: 1,276
Completion Percentage: 54.1%
Yards: 8,049
TDs: 54
INTs: 44
QB Rating: 73.2

Quarterback B
Starts: 36
Completions: 675
Attempts: 1,130
Completion Percentage: 59.7%
Yards: 7,242
TDs: 35
INTs: 23
QB Rating: 80.4

Winner: Quarterback B

Hint: Both had good offensive lines, great defenses, and excellent running games in their first three years.

Hint: Quarterback A gets paid a LOT more than Quarterback B and Quarterback B is in his contract year.

The 2008 Season Post Mortem

2009-09-02T15:14:00.005-04:00

First let me begin by taking the heat for making a statement that was wrong. On September 22, 2008 when the Redskins had a record of 2 – 1, I posted the following prediction:

“…the Redskins season is probably going to be determined by what they do over their next two games. Both are division games on the road—at Dallas this week, and at Philly next…If they come out of these next two games with a split, they will be 3 - 2 and sitting pretty for a playoff spot…If they sweep the next two they will win the NFC East—the toughest division in the NFL (8 - 0 against non-NFC East opponents so far).”

You know the outcome. The Redskins did sweep Dallas and Philadelphia on the road, but not only did they fail to win the division, they could not even grab a wildcard spot. Why not? It starts at the top. It always does.

The Redskins organization has serious problems. Dan Snyder is a Redskins fan, which I like, but like many people who are successful in one sphere, he thinks he can be successful in any sphere. To be fair, some people can pull that off. And if all you care about are the Redskins’ cash flow statements, Snyder is pulling it off. I should know because Snyder perennially sucks several thousand dollars out of my accounts despite putting an inferior product on the field in most years. It’s just that Snyder is not one of the people who can pull it off in the one place that matters to Redskins fans: championships. He thinks he needs little help in building a winning football franchise. And he is wrong.

Snyder was smart to bring Joe Gibbs back and give him free reign over the organization. Snyder was such a fan you could almost hear him calling Joe “Mr. Gibbs” in private. Vinny Cerrato, the man putatively in charge of personnel decisions, was wide eyed around Gibbs. Gibbs brought respectability back to the franchise in part because he pushed Snyder and his cronies to the sideline.

Team Snyder swore they learned from Gibbs and wouldn’t repeat their past mistakes such as dismantling the team at the end of each season and disrupting the stability necessary for success. Four years of continuity resulted in two playoff appearances in the past three years and nearly another trip to the Super Bowl in 2005. But, when Gibbs left unexpectedly, team Snyder came back with all of their bad habits and dismantled almost all of Gibbs’s coaching team. The head coaching job should have gone to Gregg Williams, and Al Saunders should have stayed on as offensive coordinator this year. Jason Campbell would have known Saunders’ offense by now.

In the one area where there was some continuity, the Redskins once again excelled. Williams’ defenses were always outstanding and Defensive Coordinator Greg Blache, who was Williams’ assistant for the prior four years, maintained that system and personnel. The Redskins were the second toughest team to score on in the NFC next to the Giants and the Giants were only better by two points. Until the last game, the Skins were the only team in the NFL that did not give up twenty-five points in any game. Teams with defenses this good are almost always in the playoffs and almost always go far in the playoffs. Unfortunately, the Skins offense did not score at least twenty-five points in any of its last eight games; not since it beat Detroit 25 - 17. Speaking of the winless Detroit Lions, the Lions scored more points than the Redskins in 2008.

If the Skins could have managed 25 points in each of their last eight games, they would have finished 13 – 3. Ironically, their only loss in that stretch would have been in the last game of the year against the 49ers, but they would have had home field advantage all locked up by then anyway.

Had they managed to score the same 21-points per game that Gibbs was repeatedly criticized for in 2007 on Extremskins.com—the Redskins official message board—they would have finished 10 – 6 and in the playoffs. More than likely they would have won the 49er game too, because the game would have mattered, and they would have finished 11-5. They also would have split the season series with the Giants and finished with the same overall record as the Giants, but with a better division record they would have won the Division title. So, why was there a lack of continuity, especially on offense?

Well, what front office in its right mind would hire its assistant coaches before it hired a head coach? It’s a rhetorical question. No head coach worth a dime is going to want to coach a team when he cannot pick his assistants. The HC is responsible for everything that happens on the field and in the locker room, and responsibility without authority is just stress. What front office does something like that? One that thinks it can do it all, or one that does not care. I do not think team Snyder is one of the latter. I think it wants to win, but it is just incompetent, and incompetent front offices tend to hire incompetent coaches.

Zorn’s clock management, decisions under pressure, and official challenges of bad calls were pathetic. He only threw the red challenge flag about six times this year and lost all but one. The one win: Against the Ravens after he had already lost a challenge, he threw the flag with about six minutes left in the game to argue for two yards at mid field. When a coach wins both challenges, he will get to keep one of them. If he loses at least one challenge, he only gets two for the entire game. That Zorn would give up his last challenge with six-minutes left in a close game for two yards of field position near the 50-yard line—after a first down mind you—is just terrible.

In the opener against the Giants, deep in Giants territory, in field goal range with a few minutes left in the game, he made the decision to go for a first down on fourth and long. They were down by nine points at the time and needed both a field goal and a touchdown to win the game. My kids’ high school coaches would have known that he had to kick the field goal there to preserve any chance for a victory. I would be writing the same thing today even if they scored a touchdown there. You have to play the odds, but I do not believe that Zorn even understood the odds.

How good were the Skins last year? They beat the Cowboys on the road and could have swept them. They swept the Eagles. They held the emotional Giants to sixteen points on opening night in the Meadowlands—the night they celebrated their Super Bowl victory. They beat the NFC champions and representative in last year’s Super Bowl—the Cards. That, my friends, is a playoff-caliber team. Joe Gibbs handed Snyder a perennial playoff contender.

But, they lost to the then-winless Rams (two wins for the year), the 1-11-1 Bengals, and the then-six win and nine loss 49ers. That is coaching. A good coach with as much talent as the Redskins had last year would have found a way to win those three games.

It was particularly frustrating in the Bengals loss to watch Zorn bench a healthy Clinton Portis when the Skins were attempting to score the tying touchdown in the third quarter with a first-and-goal from the one-yard line. The Skins were very much in the playoff hunt at the time. A win would have probably secured a spot in the playoffs. On Mike Sellers’ second attempt to punch it in from the one, he fumbled, and the Skins did not score again after that. I love Mike Sellers...as Clinton Portis's blocker, which is his normal role. He had no business getting the ball there. Zorn benched Portis because Portis was critical of him in the week before that game. Way to punish the team and the fans, Jim.

Again, that is coaching, not lack of talent. But in many ways I am being unfair to Zorn. Snyder thrust Zorn into a role for which he was clearly not ready. I am not sure that he is ready now after he has sixteen games under his belt. If Zorn can be faulted, it is in not being self-aware enough to reject Snyder's offer.

But, cheer up Skins fans. This post mortem was written at the darkest hour last year and never posted on Counter Trey until now. The 2009 season is looking brighter. I liked what I saw in the preseason game against the Patriots, and the Skins defense is going to be beastly this year. That alone may be worth the price of admission. Now, if only coach Zorn can get out of his own way…Stay tuned.

HA!

2008-09-29T00:05:00.002-04:00

...a feeling deep inside
Oh yeah, Oh yeah.

I've got a feeling, a feeling I can't hide
Oh no, Oh no, Oh no...

Skins - Cowboys Preview

2008-09-28T15:49:00.001-04:00

...I got a feelin'...

This is Campbell's breakout year.

Let's Go Mets

Wile E Belichick, Super Genius

2008-09-25T17:02:00.007-04:00

Bill Parcells never won a Super Bowl or Conference championship without Bill Belichick at his side running the defense. Many in the NFL whisper that it was really Belichick who gave Parcells the trophies, not the other way around, especially after Belichick won three on his own with the Patriots. Belichick never disputed the whispers. Perhaps he believes them.

In the NFL they keep records. Let's look at Wile E's head coaching record:

Overall: 144 - 86 - 0

That is genius territory, alright. Brilliant.

But let's break it out:

First HC job:
Cleveland: 36 - 44 (wince)

Humans usually hit their IQ peak before the age of 39 when Belichick took the job. What happened? Well, Cleveland has been bad for years; maybe it wasn't his fault.

Second and current HC job:
New England:
2000: 5 - 11 (Huh?)
2001: First two games: 0 - 2 (What?)
2008: Last game: 0 - 1 (a blowout loss at home to a team that won one game in 2007? How can this be?)

So, in these games the Genius has 41 wins and 58 losses for a 0.414 winning percentage.

Four-fourteen? Genius? Belichick said his most embarrassing moment in the NFL was when the Giants passed him over for the head coaching job and gave it to Ray Handley. Handley, was run out of town after two years, but even he could muster a 14 - 18 record for a 0.438 winning percentage. Rich Kotite had a 41 win and 57 loss record (0.418) as head coach of the Eagles and Jets. Kotite is considered one of the worst coaches in NFL history.

You think I am being unfair to Belichick for selecting certain games out of specific seasons? You must have guessed the significance by now.

Without Tom Brady at QB: 41 - 58 (0.414)
All other games 1991 through 2008: 103 - 28 - 0 ( 0.786)

With Tom Brady at quarterback, Belichick is a genius Hall of Fame coach.

Without Tom Brady at quarterback, Belichick is Lloyd Christmas; he's worse than Ray Handley and Rich Kotite.

That's enough of the Hall of Fame talk; enough of the genius label.

HOLD THE PRESSES!!! Carlos Rogers Caught a Ball that Hit His Hands / Redskins 24 - Cards 17 / What to Make of these Skins

2008-09-22T11:02:00.007-04:00

In the second round of the playoffs in 2005, the Redskins had a 3 - 0 lead over Seattle with 8:54 left in the second quarter. The Seahawks were deep in their own territory when Hasselbeck dropped back to pass, looked to his right, saw nothing, quickly spun to his left and let fly a duck. The Redskins' high first-round draft pick at cornerback that year, rookie Carlos Rogers, played it perfectly. Rogers stepped in front of the receiver near the 25-yard line, had all his momentum heading toward the goal line and there was not a soul in his way.

The Redskins defense had already knocked out of the game Seattle's best offensive weapon, running back Shaun Alexander, when an Arrington tackle gave him a concussion. Alexander had rushed for 1,880 yards that season and scored 28 TDs. The Redskins were about to take a commanding, crowd silencing, 10 - 0 lead into halftime in Seattle while their staff was busy making flight arrangements for the NFC Championship game in Carolina.

The Redskins had finished 10 - 2 in the Conference that year, including a regular season win against Seattle, and it would have been 11 - 1 had the referees in the Tampa Bay game overturned a bad call on a last play, two-point conversion attempt by Alstott. With a correct call, the Redskins would have been preparing to host Joe Gibbs's sixth NFC Championship game, and given their dominance of the NFC that year, they likely would have been the NFC representative in Joe Gibbs's fifth Super Bowl.

All Rogers had to do was catch the ball that hit him in the hands, chest-high between the numbers. But Rogers dropped the ball.

Seattle kept the ball and finished that drive with a touchdown and a lead they never gave up.

I had given the rookie a break on that drop. He was new, had shown great cover skills, and had missed part of the year with an injury. It was easy to forgive him when it looked like the Skins secondary was going to dominate passing offenses for years with Rogers, Springs, and Taylor. And, it became clear over the next few years that Gibbs had done a great job in that draft because Rogers's coverage skills were outstanding. He was always around the ball...and he always seemed to drop them.

Take the first game of this season, for example. With the Redskins offense still trying to get a grip on Zorn's west coast offense, the Redskins defense stepped up and held the defending champs to just 16-points. And, Eli Manning was very generous. It's just that Rogers was equally generous when he let two of Manning's gifts hit the turf after they had hit his hands. Two more interceptions of Manning passes were dropped by other players.

Redskins 24 - Cards 17
So forgive Skins fans for dreaming what it would have been like if Rogers could catch. Well, yesterday we got a glimpse of what it could be like. In the fourth quarter, with the score tied at 17 each, Rogers made an incredibly athletic play to make an interception and then got up and ran it 42-yards to the Cards 15-yard line.

Two plays later Campbell passed to Moss for the TD that put them ahead for good.

WTF?
On the Skins next possession with 9:55 left in the game and a seven-point lead, Campbell scrambled to his right, saw rookie wide receiver Devin Thomas all alone, fired a strike on the run and watched as Thomas jogged 68-yards for a game-icing TD. Unfortunately, the play was called back for unnecessary roughness. What happened? Well, with the play still live, with Campbell still scrambling with the ball in his hand, right tackle Stephon Heyer blocked the Cards' defensive end too hard.

I am not kidding. No, he did not hit him high while another player hit him low; that would be a penalty. No, he did not hit him in the face or head; that would be a penalty. No, he did not hit him in the back; that would be a penalty. Heyer hit the DE in the chest and knocked him to the ground. In the old days in the NFL (by which I mean as old as two days ago and probably far into the future) that was called blocking.

What's next? If a ball carrier gets tackled hard, will the tackler be penalized? Will we flag a guy who runs a 4.3-second 40-yard dash for running too fast? Remember the game against Green Bay a few years ago when Cooley got mauled at the line of scrimmage, shook the defender who fell to the ground, ran across the width of the field and then caught a pass only to be called back for offensive pass interference? Huh? The ball was still in the QB's hand long after Cooley shook the defender. Since when is it a penalty to hand check a defender who tries to jam you at the line of scrimmage? That negated a huge play for the Skins and turned a win into a loss.

It seems to me that NFL refereeing has gotten extremely bad in the past four years. I've said it before: Every play should be reviewable whether a flag is thrown or not. Give coaches ten challenges per game. The short season makes every call crucial.

What I Expect this Season?
In my shortened preview I said the success of this season depends on how fast Zorn learns his job because this is a playoff team that had gotten very healthy and deep. Zorn did not make me comfortable, though, with the way he handled the clock at the end of the Giants game. He had not earned my confidence. He was behaving like a QB coach when the Skins needed a Head Coach and there was too much uncertainty for me to make a prediction.

One thing happened to change my opinion about Zorn: Jason Campbell said before the Saints game that he talked with Zorn and told him to trust him. Zorn agreed that he would let go of micro-managing Campbell a little and that they would try to trust each other more. The Redskins offense has looked like a world-beater ever since.

Offense
As Peter King said, they have the best skill players in the division, and they have not even gotten their three second-round-pick rookies into the game plan yet (except for Thomas's called-back TD).

They have tremendous depth on offense. Whether it is Sports Illustrated's best back-up QB in the NFL, or the multiple receivers and running backs, they are extremely talented. When RB Marcus Mason, who led the NFL in rushing yards this preseason, and WR Billy McMullen, who led the team in preseason catches (20), were both looking for work after the Redskins final cuts, you know the Skins have talent.

Add to that the exceptional depth on the O-line and this is a potentially powerful offense. RT Stephon Heyer left the game for a while yesterday with an injury and Jon Jansen came off the bench to replace him. Jansen would be a starting LT, the most important tackle position, for most teams in the NFL, but in DC he is the second-string RT.

Defense
Lost in much of the discussion about the Skins playoff runs over the past few years was the fact it was their defense that led them there each year. Gregg Williams had a top-ten defense for most of his tenure as defensive coordinator, and that was true last year despite multiple injuries. The Redskins offense, especially the passing game, was along for the ride. Only the smash-mouth running game made a serious contribution.

With all of the coaching changes this offseason, Snyder & Co kept the philosophy on defense steady by replacing Williams with Blache as defensive coordinator. Blache and Williams had been together for several years and they shared the same approach. This year Blache gets Rocky McIntosh, Carlos Rogers, Shawn Springs and Marcus Washington back. He gets a talented young safety in Landry with a year of experience under his belt who comes into the season with tremendous confidence after a great playoff game against Seattle in his rookie year. He gets a very good rookie safety in Chris Horton, who was the NFL defensive player of the week last week with two picks and a fumble recovery in his first NFL start. He gets a former NFL defensive player of the year in Jason Taylor, who knocked down three passes at the line of scrimmage yesterday. As good as the Skins D was over the past four years, it should be even better this year.

Prediction
The football season is short. NFL teams can get buried fast. It may sound crazy, but the Redskins season is probably going to be determined by what they do over their next two games. Both are division games on the road—at Dallas this week, and at Philly next. If it seems unfair for the Skins enter the season with a new head coach and have to play three division opponents in their first five games, then it is monumentally unfair for all three to be on the road. The Redskins schedule looks like one that Jerry Jones and the Mara/Tisch families would create.

If they come out of these next two games with a split, they will be 3 - 2 and sitting pretty for a playoff spot. Unfortunately, they will have to play the Dallas game without Jason Taylor, who is only on the team because they lost Philip Daniels for the season. Still the depth is strong and Evans and Wilson should do a decent job there. If they sweep the next two they will win the NFC East—the toughest division in the NFL (8 - 0 against non-NFC East opponents so far). If they lose the next two, then they will have to sweep all three home division games at the end of the year, which will not be easy.

One thing is certain: their offense is going to be much better in the second half than the first, but it is already off to a great start. Coupled with an outstanding defense and led by a coach that looks like he “gets it,” and I have high hopes today.

Prediction: 11 - 5
NFC East champs

I'll have a better idea of a playoff prediction as we get closer.

Redskins Season Preview 2008/Congrats to Monk and Green/Skins 7 - Giants 16 (Puke)

2008-09-10T11:03:00.004-04:00

I have had no time to write because I have been launching a business. I probably would not have written much anyway because I do not know what to make of this team.

This team is talented. It is clearly a playoff-caliber team. Even Peter King, no Skins fan, wrote in his training camp notes that the Redskins have the best skill players in the division. He wrote that Campbell had the best camp that he EVER saw a quarterback have and he has been to many of these camps over the years including nineteen this year. They had multiple injuries to key players last year and the second-and third-stringers stepped in and the Redskins still reached the playoffs. Those second- and third-stringers are now back on the bench providing depth, but now they have significant experience. That is quality depth, which is absolutely essential to be considered a playoff team in the violent NFL.

Key players that missed significant time last year: On Defense: Sean Taylor (RIP), Carlos Rogers, Rocky McIntosh, Shawn Springs, and Marcus Washington.

On offense: Campbell, all three wide receivers, Jon Jansen, and Randy Thomas;

These were all starters. That is a significant amount of talent to get back: half of their defensive secondary, two-thirds of their linebackers, their quarterback, all three receivers, and the right side of their offensive line and they still made the playoffs.

First Game
But, what can I say about a team that seems leaderless? Jim Zorn looks completely out of his league. In the Giants game, with six minutes left and in need of two scores, he ran one rushing play after another or called short passes in the middle of the field and had the offense huddle after each play. He burned over four minutes off the clock. In a close, winnable game, that was unacceptable.

To make matters worse, when they got the ball back again with 1:30 left and still needing two scores, Campbell drove them downfield quickly into field goal range. Their only chance to win the game was to kick the field goal and try for an onside kick. Inexplicably they tried to convert the first and failed. Even if they had converted, the game would have been lost. What was he thinking? Every coach in the NFL would have kicked the field goal. My kid's high school coach would have kicked a field goal. Speaking of which, Madden said that Zorn should have the no-huddle offense in place by next week. My kid's high school coach had the no huddle down in mid-August.

Then, in his two follow up press conferences, he threw Campbell under the bus. He basically said he saw some good things, but then went on to criticize many things that Campbell did wrong. It sounded as if he was saying that if campbell played better, the Skins would have won.

The Skins should have won anyway, and if they had held on to the four interceptions that Manning tried to place in their hands, they would have. But, to say Campbell's play was not good enough to win is just plain wrong. It had the ring of a guy who has been a quarterback and then a QB coach his entire career, has been prematurely thrust in to the head coaching job because of the ineptitude of the Redskins front office, and feels so out of his depth that he can only fall back on what he knows well.

The Redskins are not young on either side of the line of scrimmage anymore, but the depth they have would have allowed them to rotate players and stay fresh. The Skins have great skill players and this should be Campbell's breakout year, but in the age of parity, a head coach matters a lot. Gibbs seemed to always find a way to lift this team up into the playoffs by winning close games in close races. They are young and talented at many positions, but not at the line of scrimmage. The Skins are built to win now. They are a playoff team, and after the Giants improbable run last year, it is clear that anyone with this much talent can win it all. I can only hope that Zorn figures it out before it is too late.

I like Jim Zorn. I think he is a stand up guy who would never want to be perceived as someone who threw his players under the bus. I think he would make a great quarterbacks coach and it is not his fault that he is in this position. Would you turn down that offer? The fault lies with Cerrato and Snyder, who inexplicably derided the importance of continuity in the NFL and dismantled Joe Gibbs program.

Coaching
Eight of the Redskins sixteen games last year were decided by seven points or less and in three more games the difference was within one scoring drive (with a two-point conversion). In the all-important division games, the Redskins were 3 - 3, but in all three losses they were within one scoring drive of tying or winning the game. Perhaps the most memorable of those losses came in week three when the 0 - 2 Giants were nearly buried for the season by the Skins. Down by seven, Jason Campbell drove the Skins 64 yards to the Giants one-yard line. With 53-seconds left in the game and a first-and-goal at the one, the Giants saved their season by stopping the Skins.

In games that were decided by eight points or more, the Skins were 6 - 2, including wins against all three division opponents.

Prediction:If Zorn does not figure it out, the Skins will have trouble winning six games, so let's call it 5 - 11. If he does, the sky is the limit. He already as the horses.

Hall of Fame:
What can you say about the reception that Monk received at his induction ceremony in Canton? No one receives standing ovations at these things in part because the attendees are usually diverse with players from several teams inducted. This year Redskins fans took over Canton. Why? Well, for one thing there were two Skins inducted at the same time--Darrell Green and Art Monk. For another, all Redskins fans and just about every NFL commentator in the media felt it was an injustice that Monk was not inducted much earlier.

Congratulations to two great and deserving Redskins players, who also happen to be outstanding people with great character.

Congrats Giants/Belichick Spits the Bit

2008-02-04T00:24:00.000-05:00

This is my recollection of the last time the Skins played the Giants. As the priceless NFL Network commentary shows, it was a huge game for both teams. It's a reminder of just how close the Giants' season came to ending on that day. But, the Giants fought through what would have been a devastating loss to many teams.

They fought through two missed field goals in Green Bay, stayed in the game, and were given an easy pick from Favre to seal it; they beat a Dallas team that wasn’t very good after all, which the Skins overwhelmingly proved in December; and they beat up on the Bucs.

Maybe most important of all is how they overcame Eli Manning’s five fumbles and two interceptions and a 14-0 Bills lead in Buffalo in the game after their nearly devastating loss to the Skins. The Giants scored twenty-one unanswered fourth quarter points to clinch their playoff spot. If they hadn’t found a way to beat the Bills that day, they probably wouldn’t be Super Bowl champs today and everyone would have pointed to the Skins game as the culprit. That is how close everyone is in the NFL. That is why resilience and persistence are so important, and the Giants had the most of both this year. (Ed Note: Phil Simms just said the exact same thing on the Mike and the Mad Dog radio show (2/4/08). He said that there were a couple of plays in almost every game that the Giants played after the Skins game that if they didn't go the Giants way, they would not be champs today and would probably have been watching the game on TV.)

As for Sunday's game, the Giants can thank three things for the trophy: 1.) their front four put pressure on Brady all day; 2.) Tyree made an amazing catch with his right hand pressing the ball against his helmet to keep the game winning drive alive; and 3.) Bill Belichick made an asinine decision to go for a first down on fourth-and-thirteen when the Patriots were well within Gostkowski's indoor range for a 48-yard field goal;

The loss by three must sting a bit now, huh?

I guess even "geniuses" can make stupid calls. This tarnishes the reputation a bit. I don't believe in luck or karma, but if I did, I would say Belichick had this coming to him for running up the score on the Skins and other teams this year. Shotgun formation, four wideouts, Brady in the game throwing on nearly every down with a 35-point lead and 12-minutes left? The same thing sans Brady with five minutes left? Vrabel on kickoff coverage with a 40+ point lead and two minutes left to play? Belichick deserved this loss.

The Giants and Redskins each showed similar resilience this year. Let's hope that Zorn and Blache and their new head coach can get the same results—Skins 22-Giants 10—two times next year.

"It's a Redskin Day, Baby"

2008-02-03T16:34:00.000-05:00

"It's a Redskin day, baby.'' That was how Darrell Green put it yesterday.

Yes, it was.

The Hall of Fame voters finally got it right; they selected Art Monk yesterday. It is still a travesty that Michael Irvin was selected before Monk by these same guys last year. I still think the voting process needs to change. Sports writers are full of biases and apparently vindictiveness if you read any quotes in the past few years from one voter—Zimmerman. Sports writers are also susceptible to campaigning, which is the only explanation for Irvin’s selection last year. Here is Peter King on the Monk selection:

The dogged strength of Monk's candidacy -- buttressed by an unending stream of e-mails and phone messages to the selectors -- probably knocked out Carter and Buffalo's Andre Reed.

King didn’t mention that Andre Reed said he would not want to be selected for the Hall if Monk was not in.

Watching Darrell Green make his speech and hearing Monk’s over the phone made a few other things very clear. These were not just great players, they are also great people. Green and Monk could not have been more humble or grateful.

Green speech included this line:

"For my whole career, I was overpaid, over-respected and over-cared for, so I just want to say to all of you, thank you so much."

Green and Monk were/are the epitome of the classy players with which Gibbs populates his teams. Gibbs has always said character is the first thing he looks for when evaluating talented players and he found it spades in these two. He has also found it in Campbell, Thrash, Randle El, Rogers, and dozens of others that he brought in over the past four years. Gibbs put together a very good core of young guys who could win an NFC championship next year. I hope Snyder does not screw this up.

For Darrell Green to be selected with the first ballot is an honor that few receive. I think the selectors were trying to make up for past wrongs with respect to the Skins. In eleven seasons from 1981 through 1991, the Redskins made five trips to the NFC Championship game, won four NFC championships, and won three Super Bowl titles. Yet, prior to yesterday, the only Redskins player in the Hall of Fame from that era was John Riggins, and he was only around for two of their five NFC Championship games (1982 and 1983 seasons). By contrast, Monk was there for all five and Green was with the team for four. The Hall has not finished its work.

I do not know why special teams’ players are rarely considered for the Hall of Fame when it is clear special teams often make the difference between champions and also-rans. Mark Mosley was the only kicker in NFL history to be named league MVP (1982). When he retired, he owned the record for most consecutive field goals and was way up there in points. Brian Mitchell retired as the player with the most yards gained in NFL history, which was broken by Jerry Rice in 2004, but not by much (23,546 to 23,330). Mitchell still holds the NFL record for touchdown returns, although Hester is a good bet to break it. These guys should be in the HOF.

The Redskins had some outstanding defensive players then, too. Dexter Manley was the all-time sacks leader for several years and was passed by Lawrence Taylor who is in the HOF already. Dexter always had a left tackle over him and often a tight end would help block him. Unlike with Taylor, there was never any surprise when Dexter was coming. Dave Butz took on double teams and still consistently stuffed the run. Unfortunately, defensive tackles don’t have flashy stats that they can use to impress the HOF voters.

Then there are the Hogs. They set the standard for offensive linemen that is still being emulated today: Bigger and stronger players who are quick enough to pull (as in the counter trey) and protect the quarterback. At least two of the Hogs—and probably three—should be in the HOF: Jacoby, Grimm, and maybe Bostic. They didn’t just have a catchy name; they were dominating in their era. That is the only explanation for three Super Bowl championships with three different quarterbacks and running backs. It is the only explanation for Timmy Smith, who still holds the Super Bowl rushing record with 204 yards in his first and only start in any NFL game.

Super Bowl
Today is Super Bowl Sunday. I just caught four minutes—and only four minutes—of Fox’s pregame and it coincidentally included the part where they honored former NFLers who passed away this year. It took me about twenty seconds before I realized that the picture of one of my favorite players of all time was about to be flashed on the screen. I still cannot believe that the Redskins’ 24-year old safety--a guy who I thought would be in their secondary for many more years--is dead. They ended the segment with Taylor’s picture in uniform with his right arm raised high and the years of his life scrolled underneath. It made me very sad once again. I thought I was over it.

I am going to root for the guys with the “21” on their helmets today. Go Giants! They understand what it means to honor a great player.

Sean Taylor was a guy who would have been inducted in the Hall of Fame on the first ballot in the class of approximately 2023. RIP.

Santana!

2008-02-03T16:25:00.000-05:00

Even the Wilpons couldn't screw this one up, although a quote from Santana's agent makes me believe they came close. Santana's agent, Greenberg, said:

"I honestly thought the deal was dead."

He said that when they were five million dollars apart. Are you kidding me? Five million?

The most important thing to keep an eye on now is whether the Mets try to dump some guys with slightly high prce tags like they did with Cameron in 2006. If they don't, the Mets should win the NL pennant and they have as good a shot as anyone for the World Series title.

Mets Get Santana? Not yet

2008-01-30T11:03:00.000-05:00

The Mets may have just pulled a rabbit out of a hat the way I am praying that Snyder will in a few days.

Acquiring Santana for four mid-level prospects--and not including Reyes--instantly makes the Mets the NL pennant favorite.

But wait. He is not in the bag yet. The deal is contingent on Santana signing a contract extension. Never underestimate the potential for the Wilpons to screw this up. Especially now because, as Olney of ESPN.com points out, Santana and his agent have ALL of the leverage now that the trade has been announced. The Wilpons are absolutely squirming right now.

Will they say Santana's demands are unreasonable as they did when they cut off the A-rod negotiations several years ago before A-rod signed with Texas? Will they stop $8 million dollars short of sealing a deal and a sure pennant, as they did when they traded Mike Cameron two years ago? Will the Wilpons try to nix it, as they tried to do in the Piazza trade in 1998?

Don't celebrate yet Mets fans. Let's see it in writing first.

Dan Snyder is Insane

2008-01-25T17:51:00.000-05:00

I am afraid that my Redskins are in disarray. This head coach decision is a debacle. It appears that Snyder and Co. are back to their old attempts at quick fixes. We’ll soon find out if they go back to signing old, expensive free agents whose best days are in the past. And, I thought that Snyder had learned something from Gibbs. I have always been a strong defender of Snyder, and anyone who follows the Redskins knows that he has received a lot of criticism. If Snyder does not hire Gregg Williams, he will have lost me, too. (ed note; that should have read: If Snyder hires Fassel over Gregg Williams, he will have lost me, too. Maybe Snyder will pull a rabbit out of a hat.)

Joe Gibbs put in place a foundation and process for long-term success. Gibbs retired early and now Snyder is about to blow the whole thing up. Why? The rumor was that he was about to snub Gregg Williams, who was Joe Gibbs’s choice as his successor, and hire Jim Fassel. I’m sorry, but since when has Fassel ever been confused with being a football genius?

Fassel had a less-than-average record as an NFL head coach, a piss-poor record as a college head coach, and as offensive coordinator in Baltimore he presided over one of the NFL's worst offenses. In the 2001, Marty Schottenheimer had a better record than Fassel in Marty's only year as Skins HC. In 2003, Spurrier--for Chrissakes--had a better record than Fassel and Spurrier was pushed out head first. Fassel may have been my locker neighbor at our Country Club, but he was a no show at the Club as much as his teams were no shows in the playoffs. Almost all of the success of his Giants teams—what little there was—could be attributed to Fox.

When the rumors starting flying that the Redskins were about to announce that they hired Fassel, Redskins Nation went nuts. Nearly every fan site ran a poll: From Extremeskins.com to the Washington Post’s web site, Gregg Williams was the landslide choice of the fans. Fans were calling in to talk radio and posting that they would stop buying Redskins souvenirs and apparel and season ticket holders were pondering what they would do with their next invoice. It was enough of an uproar that two reporters from WaPo speculated that it forced Snyder to reverse the Fassel decision. If that is true, good for the fans. Fassel is now saying that he feels betrayed, so the initial reports were probably true.

Why wouldn’t Williams be the choice for head coach? He had the Redskins defense in the top ten in three of the past four years. He has had tremendous success as a defensive coordinator wherever he has been. The players are solidly behind him. No one wants to start over and fix something that’s not broken. He’s Joe Gibbs’s choice for goodness sakes. And he certainly would have continued down the same path as the past three years. He would not make radical changes to a team that needs tweaks. The blue prints for success are in place and he is one of the chief architects. The Redskins were in the playoffs in two of the past three years despite numerous obstacles. In the prior twelve years since Gibbs left the first time, they had made the playoffs just once.

But, as I write this, ESPN is reporting that the Redskins have given Jim Zorn a three-year contract to be their offensive coordinator. Unless Williams gave his nod to Zorn behind the scenes, this is not good news. Any head coach worth his salt is going to want to hire his own assistants. That either means that the coach that Snyder plans to hire has already agreed to the job and has signed off on Zorn, or it means that the new head coach is going to be Snyder’s lap dog, or it means Snyder is going to pay Zorn for three years to do nothing. And consider this: Saunders is now out as OC, so the Redskins are going to lose their second string QB, Collins--the one who led them to the playoffs this year with a four game winning streak. Collins success is almost completely due to his knowledge of Saunders system and Collins is a free agent. He'll probably wind up wherever Saunders does. What a debacle.

Tom Boswell of the WaPo (and not one of the speculators on the result of the fan uproar)had this to say today:

Who brought in both Williams and Saunders with their proven systems? Who drafted Jason Campbell to be the quarterback of the future? Who identified Clinton Portis and Santana Moss to be featured offensive stars? (Ed. Note: And Chris Cooley, the tight end who has the most NFC TDs since 2004; and Antwaan Randle El; and London Fletcher, a perennial top-ten tackler; and Marcus Washington; and Sean Taylor; and on and on…) Who constantly selected players for personal or character traits that might make them "True Redskins?"

The answer, of course, is Gibbs. No one in town did much more than ask, "What do you want, Joe?" then go out and get it for him. And who was Gibbs's clear choice, as recently as the day he left, to be the next coach? Williams.

If any other Hall of Fame coach with three Super Bowl rings, some Walsh or Noll, had been courted out of retirement when his old team called -- desperate, dysfunctional and in disarray -- to help the franchise regain its dignity, wouldn't his wishes have carried weight on the day he left? Is everything Gibbs put in place really so easy to blow up? Is keeping staff members hanging in the dark about their future for 16 days really the way to go?

The Redskins have plenty of excuse for being disoriented, and perhaps even a little wounded, by Gibbs's sudden departure. But the organization should reconsider its first and most obvious choice for head coach (Gregg Williams). That is, if it isn't already too late.

After watching the Wilpons destroy my favorite MLB team, to the point where I cancelled my season tickets which I owned for five years, I now am watching the Redskins go down the drain. They were “this” close to the Super Bowl this year, and are obviously a better team than the Giants, Cowboys and Packers, and now it seems that they are starting over. I don’t have much time for sports fandom any more. I never thought that giving up my Skins season tickets would ever enter my mind, but now it has. Maybe I’ll just sell them on StubHub like all of the fans who own seats around me do, sell to the opposing team fans, until new ownership takes over or Snyder comes to his senses.

AAAARRRRRRGGGGGGHHHHHH!!!!!!

2008-01-05T21:10:00.000-05:00

It was a hell of a ride. And, it was an incredibly emotional ride.

They had the game. They would win.

• Fourth quarter;
• They just scored their second TD in a couple of minutes to take their first lead;
• They kickoff and the ball bounces over the returner’s head and the Skins recover at Seattle’s 14. It was actually returned for a TD by Mix, who has done an outstanding job on specials this year since they picked him up off waivers in the middle of the year, but the rule says that kickoff teams cannot advance the ball;

So, the Skins have a first and ten from Seattle’s 14-yard line, with about 12-minutes left and have a 14-13 lead. Game over, right?

No.

• Incomplete to Cooley;
• A few more stops;
• 30-yard FG…missed;
• Seattle drives for a TD and two-point conversion to take a seven point lead;

Even Landry’s second pick of the day to kill a Seahawk drive was not enough. An inexperienced Collins tried to force two passes into coverage and had both picked and returned for TDs making a very close game—right to the end—appear like a blowout.

But, the loss is not on Collins. He did reasonably well under the circumstances. For the Skins, the loss has to be pinned on the offensive line. Their injuries finally caught up to them. Portis had little running room and Collins was under pressure all day. Almost all of the pressure came from the Skin’s right side where Skins stars Jansen and Thomas would have been playing if healthy. Next year.

There are silver linings. Actually many silver linings. A lot depends on whether Gibbs comes back, but my gut says he will. I think he realizes that this team is very close.

One silver lining is that a lot of young guys played their first playoff game today, earned a lot of valuable experience, and did well. In some cases, the young guys played “superstar’ well. I’m thinking specifically of LaRon Landry who moved over to play Taylor’s free safety spot after Taylor’s death. What a game he played—two picks and the first gave them their first lead, and it came in the fourth quarter. What an athlete he is. The future is very bright for him and the Skins. Can you imagine the defense they would have had if Taylor was back there with him next year? Only in spirit, now.

Heyer and Fabini, filling in for Jansen and Thomas, earned valuable experience. They will make great backups next year and they are very cheap. The skins O-line should be very solid with those six and maybe one other offseason pickup. Doughty, who won the strong safety spot after Landry moved over, played very well, too. He is another find who came cheaply. The only drawback was that Jason Campbell wasn’t able to get any playoff experience because of his injury. But, they probably wouldn’t be there without Collins.

Do you think the skins have to worry about a backup QB? I think they will make Collins happy in the offseason. It shouldn’t take a ton of money, either.

The Skins have a great core of young guys. They should be able to make some simple moves in the offseason to make this, not just a good team, but a dominating team. Their defensive line found great backups in Evans, Golston and Montgomery…and Alexander who played offensive line, too, when all of the injuries hit that unit. What a valuable guy he turned out to be…and he would be tackle-eligible and go in motion…go figure.

They also found out some good things about some veterans. Carter hit double digits in sacks from the DE spot. Randle El CAN play wide receiver. Kendall was a great pick up from the Jets. Thanks Mangini. Suisham is very good…forget the miss today. Cartwright is the reincarnation of Brian Mitchell. I believe he led the NFL in kickoff return average, and he is a fiery guy. He had some great returns today; two that were called back on penalties.

In summary, I think they just need to add a little talent—say their top two draft picks—on each side of the line.

I am very sorry and sad that the run is over. The memory of Sean Taylor will fade quickly for the media and will fade for many casual fans. As long as the Skins were alive that would not have been true. New players will join next year. Let’s hope the chemistry and cohesiveness that brought this team together does not disappear. They are not far from a Super Bowl championship.

The Redskins’ road to the Super Bowl begins next year by winning enough regular season games to get home field and never have to face the piped-in noise in Seattle again. In fact, I would love for the skins to return the favor next year. I would love to see Seattle try to play in Landover in January next year.

(note: i wrote this quickly and may need to edit)

Hail to the Redskins

2008-01-04T14:27:00.000-05:00

I stand by the prediction that I made at the beginning of the season: The Redskins are going to the...

SUPER BOWL!!!!!!!!

Hey, I was right about their defense. I said it would be a top-ten D after finishing at number 31 last year. I was right about this too: The Redskins are going to the Super Bowl because they are the best team in the NFC. Here are the facts:

• There is no other running back in the NFC playoffs within 250 yards of the rushing yards that Portis has gained this year. And, Portis has improved immensely as a receiver this year making him a Westbrook-like release valve for Collins and the rest of the offense. Portis is the best running back in the NFC playoffs. A strong running game is key in January and February;

• There is no other NFC quarterback within 9 QB rating points of Todd Collins. I concede that Collins rating was earned in only four games, but even the best four-game stretch of the other QBs in the NFC playoffs only matches what Collins has done. Only Brady in the AFC has a higher rating and it is only slightly better. Collins also leads the NFL in yards per attempt. He has stretched the field and helped open up the running game for Portis. Collins was the NFC Offensive Player of the Month. The timing of his arrival is impeccable;

• The Redskins have the second-highest ranked defense of all the teams in the NFC playoffs (tied with the Giants / behind the Bucs), and it is playing its best right now;

• There is no other team in the playoffs that has played a tougher schedule. You read that correctly. The Skins had by far the toughest schedule of all the teams in the playoffs from either conference. They faced teams with a combined 0.555 winning percentage. Seattle, by comparison, not only had the easiest schedule of all of the teams in the playoffs, they had the easiest schedule of all 32 teams in the NFL;

• Certainly, there is no other team that has had to overcome the adversity that the Redskins have overcome this year. The Redskins proved they have championship-quality depth when six starters were lost for the year (or forever) and they still managed to get into the derby. All except Jansen and Thomas were first-round draft picks who were replaced by guys who were mostly low draft picks or undrafted free agents. Jansen and Thomas were high second rounders. Great depth and the proven ability to overcome adversity is how conference championships are won;

• The six fill-in starters have gained valuable experience because many of the injuries occurred early in the year. The timing was both a curse and a blessing. A curse because it cost them in losses in early games that they would have won. A blessing because those fill-ins—like right tackle Stephon Heyer who shut out Adewale Ogunleye, Strahan, and DeMarcus Ware in three of the last four weeks—have made major contributions in the four-game win streak and are ready to help this team win in the playoffs. They are peaking at the perfect time;

Let’s Review How we Got Here
Last Sunday the Redskins crushed the Cowboys—the NFC’s number-one seed—to ensure a playoff spot. Don’t tell me that the Cowboys didn’t care about the game. They were going full out with their best players on the field until the Redskins put the game out of reach late in the third quarter. Even then they only pulled Romo and a couple of defensive players (not Roy Williams).

Do you think the Cowboys want to see the Redskins again? No team would want to face a division foe in the playoffs regardless of the quality of the opponent because division foes know each other so well. But, when you consider that the Cowboys also know they should have lost both games against the Skins this year, you can understand the urgency in which the Cowboys played this game.

Also, consider this: Marion Barber entered the game needing 19-yards to reach the 1,000-yard rushing milestone. He ended the game needing 25-yards. Witten needed seven catches to go over the 100-receptions mark. His two catches didn’t get him there. They wanted it, but the Skins took it from them.

How badly did Phillips want this game? Most of his starters were on the field for the whole game. How badly? He called Romo out of the tunnel just before halftime to run another play on an un-timed down due to a Redskins penalty. The Skins then sacked him and hurt him. Romo was wincing as he walked into the locker room. Yet, the Boy Blunder was back out there to start the second half. Wade Phillips risked the franchise in an attempt to win this game and knock the Skins out. Super Bowl and number one seed be damned.

Now, let’s look at other games against playoff teams this year in chronological order. Two things should become evident. First, the Redskins were “this” close to 12 to 15 wins, a bye, and home field advantage. Second, the team flying to Seattle is a different team from the one that let six wins slip away earlier in the season. This is true for several reasons, one of which is more important than most…which I will write about later.

1. The Skins lost to the Giants by seven points after jumping out to a 17 – 3 early lead. First-year starter Jason Campbell did an admirable job leading the team 64-yards down the field in the final two minutes, but the drive stalled on the one-yard line as time expired;

2. The Skins lost to Green Bay by three points in Green Bay after they had a 14–7 early lead. Santana Moss, who had been battling injuries most of the year until December, had his worst day as a pro. He dropped several deep passes and fumbled the ball that Green Bay’s Woodson returned for the winning TD in the second half. Jason Campbell did an admirable job leading the team to Green Bay’s 33 in the fourth quarter, but that drive and two subsequent ones fell short of a score;

3. The Skins lost to Dallas by five points in Dallas. With a 10 – 7 lead late in the third quarter Rocky McIntosh intercepted Romo and returned the ball to the Dallas three-yard line. That was the ruling on the field, anyway. At the very least, replays were inconclusive with several that showed McIntosh had at least one hand under the ball. Somehow, the interception was reversed and Dallas scored a TD on the drive resulting in a 14-point swing. Jason Campbell did an admirable job on two drives with less than three-minutes left. On one he overthrew (by five inches) a wide-open Santana Moss in the end zone on what would have been the game-winning TD. Two plays later he was intercepted;

4. The Skins lost to Tampa Bay by six points in Tampa. The Skins turned the ball over to the Bucs SIX times. The Bucs did not return the favor once, and the Skins only lost by six on the road. Are you kidding me? Every fumble that hit the ground, including one by the Bucs, landed in Tampa’s hands. The Bucs recovered four fumbles in the first half at the Washington, 28-, 26-, 18-, and 32-yard lines and the Bucs scored 16-points on those turnovers. In the third quarter the Skins were stopped on a fourth-and-one play at Tampa’s four-yard line. Late in the fourth quarter, Campbell did an admirable job on two drives. On one, he took the Skins from their nine-yard line to Tampa’s 32-yard line before he was intercepted. On the other, he took the Skins from their seven-yard line to Tampa’s 16-yard line before his potential game-winning pass was intercepted in the end zone;

And, of course, there were two losses to non-playoff teams. They had a five-point lead against the Eagles with four-minutes left and lost by eight. This was the game in which the Redskins had a nine-point lead in the fourth quarter before Sean Taylor injured his knee. That injury allowed Philly to score 26-points in the final 18-minutes by exploiting the part of the field that Taylor abandoned, after they could only score seven in the first 42-minutes with Taylor in the game. Taylor's injury also led to his murder, and his death was responsible for the team’s one-point, last-second loss to Buffalo on the day before Taylor’s funeral.

In fact, if you changed the outcome in just three extremely close games, the Redskins would be the NFC East division winners with a bye right now: 1. Give Buffalo the win over the Cowboys in that Monday night debacle in which the Cowboys--in 3:45--scored a TD, missed a two-point conversion, knocked forward and recovered an onside kick with 18 seconds left at the Buffalo 47, and kicked a field goal to win by two; 2. Reverse the first Dallas-Washington game; and 3. Reverse the Buffalo-Washington game. Reverse the outcome of these three close games and the Skins and Cowboys are each 11 - 5 with the Skins holding the head-to-head tie breaker. That is how close the Skins are to the number one seed in the NFC.

The unhappy recap is they could have waltzed into the playoffs with home field advantage. But, then they wouldn’t be the heartwarming story that they are now. They are America’s team now.

What is different now? Why are they blowing away opponents now when they lost close games before?
There are many who say the main difference is Taylor’s death. They believe the team is riding a wave of emotion that carried them this far. I think it is true that several key players who were close to Sean have stepped up their game, but the Redskins are not winning on emotion. Emotions eventually burn out. No, this team is winning because they are good. They are wining because they are the best team in the NFC. They are winning because they have great coaching, an excellent running game, and an outstanding defense. And, they are winning because they finally have a quarterback who knows how to run the Gibbs-Saunders offense. Todd Collins is the main difference between early-season close losses and late-season dominance.

Readers know I love Jason Campbell’s future. I think it is bright. I also think it is much brighter today if he incorporates what he learns from watching Collins run the Redskins offense. Again, his injury was a curse and could be a blessing. He would not have had this chance without the injury.

I was optimistic about Collins after I heard the comments from Skins leaders after the Redskins knocked the Bears out of the playoffs. It was Collins first game and it came in relief. Cooley said he was surprised that when he came out of his break and turned to look for the ball, it was already there. The coverage had no chance to make a play on it. Sellers said he was surprised at how quickly Collins releases the ball. The Gibbs-Saunders passing offense is complex. It takes years of study and practice. It is all about spreading the field, reading defenses quickly, going through progressions with receivers, trusting receivers will make the same reads, and getting rid of the ball on time. Campbell will run it well some day. Collins runs it extremely well now.

You cannot argue with success. It’s hard to argue about four straight wins against conference opponents fighting hard for something. It’s hard to argue with an offense that scored an average of 26.25 points per meaningful game when it could only muster 19 points per game before Collins. And, when Collins keeps drives alive, he helps the defense too. The defense is only allowing 13.25 points per game now, when it was giving up 21.42 in the prior twelve. The pre-Collins 5 -7 Skins had an average point differential per game of minus 2.3. The Collins-led 4-0 Skins have an average margin of victory of 13-points per game, which is 60% greater than Dallas’s margin and almost as high as the Patriots’.

Time for a Little Cold Water on the Face, Counter Trey?
Collins is a backup quarterback. How many of those led their teams through the playoffs and into the super Bowl? Hmmmm.

Well, Jim Plunkett was a backup who led the Raiders to victory in Super Bowl XV. He was also the MVP. The Dolphins used a platoon of Woodley and Strock to get to Super Bowl XVII. Doug Williams was Jay Schroeder’s backup and led the Skins to a victory in XXII. He was also the MVP. Jeff Hostetler led the Giants to a victory in XXV in relief of Phil Simms. Kurt Warner started for the injured Trent Green and led the Rams to victory in XXXIV. He also broke Montana’s passing yard record and was named MVP. There are two coincidences in XXXIV: Green was the Skins QB before signing with the Rams, and Al Saunders was a coach of the Rams offense. And, then of course, there was a guy named Tom Brady who led the Patriots to a win in XXXVI after Drew Bledsoe was injured. He was also named MVP.

The history of the Super Bowl would be a lot less interesting without the backup QB.

The Matchup with the Seahawks
We already know about the difficulty of the Redskins schedule and the pathetically easy schedule the Seahawks played this year. What about the strengths of the Seahawks? People say the Hawks have a prolific offense, especially their passing game. How did they achieve their stats?

Well, they exploited the poorest defenses in the NFL. The Seahawks' three division opponents were ranked 21, 22, and 28 against the pass. That's a sum of 71 (out of a maximum 93).

Only Green Bay had an easier division to pass against: 27, 31, and 32 for a sum of 90(out of a maximum 93!!!!). It's no coincidence that Favre had a 95.7 passer rating this year, but when he faced Philly, Washington, and Dallas he had a passer rating of 58.2, 43.5, and 8.4, respectively.

In comparison, the Skins faced division foes with pass Ds ranked 11, 13 and 18 for a 42 total.

The Seahawks' division foes had an overall D ranking that totaled 67 (again, out of 93), while the Skins' division foes had overall D rankings that totaled 26. Six games against this kind of competition--almost 40% of a team's games--can make some team's stats look great.

In addition to division foes, here is a sample of some of the other teams the Seahawks faced with overall D ranking in parentheses: Cincinnati (27), New Orleans (26), Cleveland (30), and Chicago (28).

Exactly half of the Seahawks games were against teams ranked in the bottom 25-percent in total D (i.e. defenses ranked 25 through 32), which gave the Seahawks the schedule with the largest number of games against easy defenses this year.

The Seahawks only played four games against top-10 defenses and averaged 18.75 points per game in those. That’s a little different from the 24.6 PPG I keep reading about. Oh, and the Skins have the eighth-ranked defense in the NFL.

Gibbs
Finally, there is the coaching. Do I have to rehash Gibbs record in games played after November 30? He is the best. Whether we’re talking about Gibbs I or II (I really hate those monikers), he gets his team prepared and he leads them. They respect him and play hard for him and they win. And, given all of the adversity he faced this year, he probably had his best year as a coach in his career.

Grieving Sucks

2007-12-04T21:14:00.000-05:00

I have been struggling. I was having difficulty concentrating. I have had little energy.

Maybe it is the culmination of several things, but I think most of all, it is that I am grieving. I had to euthanize my family pet of fifteen years in mid-November. What hit me most was when I realized that my two sons never woke a day on this earth without him. But once the boys got over it, I did too. No, what is hurting me now is how cheated I feel. I keep thinking about how short Sean Taylor’s life was and what a great blow it is to the Redskins.

It has been over a week since Taylor died and I am starting to get some energy back. I watched his funeral on TIVO--correctly guessing it would go overtime--and feel even more cheated. He was a great football player and a good person who let the media define him. The media love negative stories and so they mistook his quiet humbleness for antisocial behavior. They mistook his ferocity on the football field for a gangster mentality. They mistook his attempt to recover property that was stolen from him as hood mentality. They mistook a DUI arrest as a DUI conviction, which never happened.

Why didn’t we know about his deeply felt faith when he was alive? Why didn’t we know about all of the money and time he donated to youth sports programs in his community? Why didn’t we know that everybody on his teams truly loved this guy? Not just Redskins, but all of the Miami players around the NFL. Jeremy Shockey was at the funeral yesterday and was completely broken up. Several Ravens were distraught because they had to play a game last night and would miss his funeral. Ray Lewis cried during the moment of silence. McGahee and Reed huddled with Lewis prior to kickoff to pay tribute (play video)to Taylor and then all three went out and played inspired football and nearly beat the Patriots. McGahee rushed for 138 yards.

Why didn't we know that when the media covered his high school football team, Taylor--who scored 44 touchdowns (a Florida record), rushed for 1300 yeards, made over 200 tackles, and led his team to the Florida HS state championship--didn't want to talk about himself? Instead he gave credit to his teammates and talked about how tough his opponent was.

Why didn’t we know about his Herculean work ethic? Gibbs talked about how he would show up at Redskins Park well in advance of when the players were due and find Sean drenched in sweat because he was running laps around the park. Shannon, Taylor’s DB coach at Miami, talked about how he kept crossing paths with Taylor when giving motivational speeches to youths near Miami in the offseason but how he never ran into him. Then, he saw a note on his desk on campus one day from Taylor and he asked his assistant when Sean left it. She said he works out nearly every day on campus late at night. We hear from Gregg Williams that he would stay late studying film; from Joe Theismann that Sean asked him to stay late so he could tutor Sean on what quarterbacks look for in safety play and how to disguise coverage; from Clinton Portis how he would try to coax Sean to go clubbing at night. Taylor would always say he’d meet Clinton, but tell Clinton the next day that he fell asleep early. We hear from Reed Doughty, who was second string at Sean’s position and so played on the scout team. When Doughty had a mild knee sprain Taylor told him to rest it and Taylor took Doughty’s reps with the scout team after practicing with the starters. Why didn’t we know these things? Because unlike many stars, Taylor didn’t promote himself. Unlike many stars, he avoided the camera. And, so the guys behind the cameras, with limited information, made his story a negative one.

I was going to write a separate post on the outrageous media coverage of his death, but I could barely concentrate. How dare guys like Len Shapiro, Michael Wilbon, Peter King, and Colin Cowherd intimate or downright speculate that Taylor somehow got what was coming to him. Oh, King backpedaled like crazy in this week’s MMQB column, but the one thing King never said was “I am sorry.” On last week’s Inside the NFL show on HBO, King had no problem saying this horseshit: “A friend of a very prominent NFL player that I know said he distanced himself from Taylor...blah, blah, blah.” Of course he was trying to create the impression that Taylor was a bad dude. At least Costas had the good sense to immediately jump in each time after King was finished to say, “We are taping on Tuesday, so we really don’t know the facts.”

By the way, two of those guys have Hall of Fame votes. It's another example of why the NFL should reclaim the privilege to induct its players.

The mayor of Taylor’s hometown, who eulogized so eloquently yesterday, spoke for me:

"One of the things that I hope comes out of this tragedy is that the media get a small lesson in grace and humility," said Florida City mayor Otis Wallace, a friend of the Taylor family. "For those who took the liberty of recklessly speculating that this young man's death was caused by the way he lived, all I can say is they should be ashamed."

Readers of this Blog know how happy I was when the Redskins signed London Fletcher this offseason. Fletcher is a tackling machine with excellent leadership abilities. He spoke for me twice this week. First, about the leadership the Skins wanted to see from him:

'Why'd you need me? You already got a great leader, and it's Sean Taylor,''' Fletcher told SI.com ... "I mean, he loved football. If we were on the sidelines during practice, he'd run out to take some scout-team reps. We're getting beat bad in New England, and he's saying in the huddle, 'I don't care what the score is! Keep playing, keep playing.' Last week, before Thanksgiving, he's in the trainers' room, getting treatment, he's telling everyone in there to have a great Thanksgiving and enjoy the time with their family. That's a leader.''

(Ed note: As I watched that Patriots game I started to get angry that the Redskins weren’t fighting in the fourth quarter as the Pats ran up the score. It was right around that point that Taylor started a fight with Vrabel, the Pats all-everything linebacker, who was playing on kickoff coverage (kickoff coverage!!!!) with the score 52-7. Taylor spoke for me that day.)

Finally, Fletcher also spoke for me when he said this:

"I thought he could have been the best safety in the history of pro football,'' Fletcher said. "He was 6-3, fierce, a hard-hitter, a great cover guy, great speed for a guy his size, great ball skills, incredibly instinctive and had a great passion for the game. Teams didn't challenge him deep. It's no secret why we've given up so many explosive plays in the middle of the field the last two weeks -- it's because Sean wasn't there.''

I still have a hard time choking back tears when I replay this four-minute tribute, which was shown before the Dec. 2 Bills game at Fed Ex Field; there wasn't a dry Redskin-fan eye in the house. The most difficult parts for me are when Taylor runs down the tunnel with Moss and Portis (because it won’t happen again), when he thanks God for getting a chance to play for the Redskins, and when he dives in the end zone in Philadelphia to clinch the Skins only playoff appearance in his short tenure. It is not a highlight film. A highlight film would haven taken hours.

Sean Taylor RIP

2007-11-27T23:49:00.000-05:00

“Of all the words of tongue or pen, the saddest are these: It might have been.” –John Greenleaf Whittier

Yesterday I had planned to write my first post in a while. I was going to write that the Redskins playoff hopes were not even close to dead, which many of the pundits had been saying. How could they be dead when they were only one game behind the sixth-seed Lions and the Redskins owned the tie breaker against that team? I was going to write that the main reason for their three heartbreaking losses in a row, starting with the Eagles loss, was the absence of Sean Taylor, but that there was a lot of reason for hope because Taylor would soon be back.

The Redskins had held a 15 - 7 lead late in the game against the Eagles when Taylor sprained his knee, sadly, directly in front of my seats at FedEx Field. I remember watching him as he was resting on his hands and knees on the field long after he finished a tackle and I was thinking, “he’ll be back.” But, Taylor never returned.

Without Taylor to contend with, the Eagles started to exploit the part of the field—the deep middle—that Taylor had vacated. When Taylor was in the game, the Eagles did not even try to go near there. The Eagles scored four TDs and won after Taylor left the game—all of the TD plays went down the middle of the field.

I had planned to write that when Taylor was in the Redskins secondary, Terrell Owens had never even come close to having the kind of game that he had two weeks ago against the Skins. Owens scored all of the Cowboys’ points in that game two weeks ago. A quick search on YouTube would explain why Owens never had success against the Skins before. Taylor owned Owens. That's "owned" with a capital O, as can be seen starting at about 3:15 in this video of 2006 meetings. Owens hates being hit and Taylor was one of the most vicious hitters in the NFL.

Owens feared Taylor. Even when Taylor was a rookie playing his first game against the All-Self-Important Owens, Taylor sent a message. Taylor put Owens on the trainer’s table at 1:35 of this video. Then, on a play going to another receiver far away from Taylor, Owens ran into Taylor’s part of the field and shot off his mouth. The rookie Taylor told Owens to shut his mouth...with his forearm...to Owens’ head (2:15) (In his rookie year Taylor wore number 36 and Owens played for the Eagles). Those two videos only cover 2004 and 2006, but they give a good idea of the kind of player he was. They don't include great plays from the Skins 2005 playoff run and they don't include his performance this year, probably his best. He was not a dirty player, but he did inflict pain.

Immediately after the Eagles loss this year I was going to write about how frustrated I was that Taylor was going to miss his first game this year and that it was going to be the game against Owens. Since the first day of the season I was looking forward to seeing Taylor shut down Owens.

Owens never had a 100-yard game against the Skins when Taylor played and never had more than one TD. In four games over three seasons against a Taylor-led secondary (Owens was suspended for both games against the Skins in 2005) Owens had a total of 18 catches for 165 yards and just two TDs for an average of 4.5 catches, 41.3 yards and 0.5 TDS per game. Not bad, but Owens averages were significantly higher against other teams in those years. And it wasn’t like Owens’ teammates were not trying to get him the ball. It was that Taylor had repeatedly separated the ball from Owens and left him writhing on the ground in pain.

So, yesterday I was going to write that the Redskins were still very much in the thick of it, and because Taylor was expected back in a week or two, that they would make a run.

And, then I heard the news.

I feel terrible about the senselessness of this. This is an absolute tragedy of the kind that Aeschylus and Shakespeare could write: A warrior in the prime of his life, revered by many, who is about to embark on great conquests but is struck down by some fluke just before he realizes greatness.

I feel sadness for his family and friends. But, I did not know him personally, so I cannot feel what they do. What I do feel is this: I feel horrible for me as a huge fan of the Redskins, which is much, much, much, more selfish. I think that Taylor and his family would understand that and would appreciate it. It is homage to him.

What I know is that when he played for the Redskins, they were feared, and that kind of intimidation is extremely valuable in football. What I know is that Sean Taylor was as valuable to the Redskins franchise as Favre is to Green Bay, Owens is to Dallas, Peyton Manning is to Indianapolis, and Hester is to Chicago. People talked about how valuable Deion Sanders was because he took away one half of the field when quarterbacks refused to throw to his side. Well, Taylor was a sideline-to-sideline player who took away the whole field beyond fifteen yards from the line of scrimmage.

How good was Taylor? Gregg Williams was the Assistant Coach or Head Coach in charge of defense on three teams: The Titans (when they went to the super Bowl), the Bills, and now the Redskins. Williams has had the number one defense in his conference several times and had a top-ten defense for the Skins in two of his three seasons here. Over that time he has coached some outstanding defensive players (think about Kearse, Arrington, any of several Redskins Pro Bowlers, and dozens of Titans and Bills Pro Bowlers). After one season of coaching Taylor, Williams unequivocally said that Taylor was the best defensive player he had ever coached.

How athletic was Taylor? Larry Coker, his head coach at the University of Miami, said on today’s Mike and Mike show on ESPN that he recruited Taylor out of High School and couldn’t decide if he was a running back, wide receiver, linebacker, or defensive back; he felt he could play at a high level at any of these positions...for a National Championship team. Running back Clinton Portis said on today's John Thomson Show that when he was at Miami and they were recruiting Taylor he had the opportunity to see Taylor's high school football video where Taylor had played running back. He said he immediately asked, "what position does he want to play here (at Miami)?" When the coaches said "safety" Portis said "Good." Portis was afraid of losing his job.

Sean Taylor was not just a good safety in the NFL. He was a great safety and probably the best. Many have said he was a great safety because he had the size of a linebacker and the speed and cover abilities of a cornerback. And, he had a legendary love of laying the big hit. He not only played at a high level, he made the other ten players on his defense better, which is how the loss of just one player can make that much of a difference. He was just 24 years old, had not yet reached a peak, and had a long, great career ahead of him.

As long as he roamed the Redskins’ secondary, they were going to be very competitive. As a fan, I looked forward with optimism to the future success of the Skins. When the Redskins made the playoffs two years ago, it was a Taylor TD return of a fumble recovery against the Eagles that won it and clinched their playoff appearance. In the next game, in the Redskins only playoff win that year, it was an extremely athletic return of a fumble for a TD against the Bucs that gave the skins an insurmountable lead in what was a close game.

Taylor began his career in the NFL at a high level as a rookie and was getting better every year and every game. Before his minor knee injury three weeks ago against the Eagles, he was leading the NFL in interceptions. He’s still leading the NFC. Fittingly, this year, he handed Brett Favre his milestone, all-time interception record. Six more years of his kind of play and we would probably have been talking about several of the Championships that he helped the Redskins win, and we would have certainly been counting down the days until his induction in Canton.

“…the saddest are these: It might have been.”

God, I am a heartbroken fan today.

Rest in Peace Sean Taylor

No Jansen, No Rogers, No Taylor, No Marcus, No Thomas, No Thrash, No Moss...No Mas

2007-11-12T19:01:00.000-05:00

I love it when fans of other NFL teams say that injuries are a part of the game and everyone has to deal with them. They usually only say that when their team has not been decimated by injuries the way the Redskins have. I hate it when even Redskins fans do not understand what this Redskins team is experiencing and instead blame the coaching as if Gibbs were playing right tackle.

The Redskins entered the game without Marcus Washington, a Pro Bowl Linebacker; without Santana Moss, a Pro Bowl receiver who earned the Redskins’ receiving yardage record just two years ago; without the starters on the right side of their offensive line; and without first-round pick and three-year starter Carlos Rogers. Yet, they still held a nine-point lead early in the fourth quarter against the reigning NFC East champs yesterday.

They held a nine-point lead because of their deep bench. Their second and third stringers filling in for the right side of the offensive line were able to open holes for Portis for most of the day and keep pass rushers off of Campbell. When they didn’t open holes for Portis, Portis took it upon himself and exploded around the edge or through tacklers to earn 137 yards rushing, the highest total in the NFL yesterday.

They were able to get and hold that lead because the Eagles were afraid to throw the ball deep down the middle with Sean Taylor playing a deep safety and taking Eagles’ heads off and helping to pick up the slack in the secondary due to the missing Rogers.

They were able to get the lead because their remarkable depth allowed James Thrash to step into Santana Moss’s spot and catch two touchdown passes in addition to making the first two Redskins’ plays that went for 30+ yards this year. Thrash did all that and still made great plays on special teams in punt and kick coverage.

So, it is not that the Redskins do not have depth. They had tremendous depth. The problem is that they have blown through that depth with injuries upon injuries at the same spots—offensive line, wide receiver, and the defensive secondary.

The Redskins lost the game in the fourth quarter. With the Skins winning by nine points, the Eagles outscored the Redskins 20 – 3 over the last 12:36 of the game. Why? Sean Taylor did not play in the fourth quarter because of a knee injury. The Eagles threw three touchdown passes that went right up the middle of the field—the place that they were afraid to throw or run to when Taylor occupied that spot. James Thrash did not play in the fourth quarter because of a knee injury and could not add to his two TD performance. And, the line failed on a couple of occasions to open holes wide enough to get a crucial yard that would have either gotten them in the end zone (Yoder and Portis) or kept drives alive (Sellers) and the Eagles offense off the field.

Redskins’ fans have criticized Gibbs all year for what they deem conservative play calling. Today they are criticizing Gibbs because he ran Portis three times from a first-and-goal at the three in the fourth quarter. These are the same people who criticized Gibbs for not running Portis with a first and goal from the one-yard line against the Giants. I cannot stand arm-chair quarterbacks who have no idea what they are talking about.

You wanted Gibbs to throw the ball there? Okay. Whom is he going to throw to? Moss and Thrash were in the trainer’s room. Randle El was double covered. Cooley had to stay in and help the second and third stringers block. Where was Gibbs going to throw the ball? And you ALL know that if Gibbs called for pass plays in that spot and they failed to score a TD or got called for a false start or holding, you would have said “why didn’t he use Portis when they had the chance? What are we paying Portis $50 million for if he cannot get three yards?” You Gibbs critics know you would have, so please, do us all a favor and shut up.

JC Walks on Water
Jason Campbell played the best game of his career yesterday. It was his sixteenth professional start, which officially gives him one full year of starts. He completed 68% of his passes for three TDs and no INTs, made some beautiful touch passes, and took a huge step forward. The only thing missing from his repertoire now is a few more Favre-like comebacks that end in victory. He has two overtime drives that ended in victory this year and he has come close several times in losses, most recently driving the Skins 61-yards against the Giants to the one-yard line in the final 2:19. A few wins in regulation would go a long way to put the finishing touches on a quarterback who should be a perennial Pro Bowl player.

Where are the Redskins?
With all of the bellyaching from Skins fans, you would think they are in last place. No, last place is where the Eagles reside, which I was happy to remind Eagles’ fan in mid-celebration in the FedEx Field Club Level yesterday. You would think the Redskins were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. No, even the 1 – 8 Rams, who surprisingly blew away the pundit-favorite-for-NFC-champ-Saints, can still make the playoffs. You would think the Redskins had no legitimate shot at the playoffs. No, they are one game back in the loss column from the Giants and Lions, who currently own the last two seeds for the NFC playoffs. Oh, they beat the lions—handily—so all they have to do to knock the Lions out is finish with the same record. Oh, and they have one more game against the Giants, who have a much tougher schedule than the Redskins from here on out.

I would have loved to see the Giants beat the Cowboys yesterday and keep the Skins within two losses of the Brokeback Boys and the NFC East title, but even the fifth seed is better than the seed that eleven other NFC teams will earn this year. Anything can happen in the playoffs, especially when you are as good as the Redskins are and you could be much healthier by January.

Where were the Redskins’ Fans?
How is it possible that at every game that I attend at FedEx Field (six- to eight-per year), I am surrounded by the opposing team’s fans? If you are a Redskins’ fan and you sold your seats to Eagles fans—a division rival—when the Skins are very much in the playoff hunt, you should have your season-tickets privilege revoked. It is bad enough to sell to a Dolphins fan for a Dolphins game, but selling to the most obnoxious fans in the NFL? Dante has reserved a circle for you.

The 2007 NFC East Contenders Strength of Schedule

2007-11-01T19:12:00.000-04:00

First a Summary of the Season So Far
Excluding the games played against the NFC East team in question, the following is the combined winning percentage of the opponents of each of the contenders for NFC East (through games played last weekend):

Giants 0.420
Cowboys 0.447
Redskins 0.622

Clearly, the Redskins have had a much tougher schedule than either the Giants or the Cowboys so far.

To date, Redskins opponents have a win percentage differential that is 20.2% greater than the Giants opponents and 17.5% greater than the Cowboys opponents. Annualizing those numbers, the opponents that the Redskins have played to date would finish the year with an average record of 10 – 6; The Cowboys opponents would finish 7 – 9; and the Giants opponents would finish with just under 7 wins. Considering that we are talking about an average, that is a HUGE difference. Imagine if you had a schedule that showed that EVERY week you had to play a team that was 10-6? On average, the Skins have done that, have a winning record, and are within striking distance of the NFC East title.

So what should we expect the rest of the year?
The following shows the strength of each of the NFC East contenders' remaining schedule (excluding the remaining games against each other because if the team in question doesn’t win those games, the rest of its schedule really doesn’t matter):

Giants 0.545
Cowboys 0.512
Redskins 0.356

It is almost a perfect inverse of the strength of schedule so far.

The Redskins are two games back in the loss column from the NFC East title because their NFC East competition has played the softest parts of their schedules already and the Redskins have played one of the most difficult schedules in the NFL in 2007. Now, there will be a reversal of fortunes. I’d say the Redskins are sitting pretty.

Just look at that remaining schedule. If they can get a couple of players back (including an O-lineman), the Redskins will march through the second half and take the NFC East title.

F#&$ing Patriots 52 - Good Guys 7

2007-10-30T23:22:00.000-04:00

Okay, take a deep breath Redskins fans. I haven’t posted since the Lions victory, so let me catch up.

The Skins should have beaten the Packers and should have lost to the Cardinals. No net change to their record there. And, the Skins got whupped by the best team in the NFL...right now. The only shame in that was the seeming lack of indignation on the part of some Skins players and possibly coaches, especially on defense. They should have taken some Pats’ heads off.

The F#&$ing Patriots 52 – the Redskins 7
The Pats made an absurdly bad mistake by running it up and trying to humiliate the Skins. I don’t buy what many fans said or what Riggo said on his radio show. Yes, the Redskins should have stopped them. But, it is just plain wrong-—when the Pats were winning 38 to 0 with 12-minutes left in the game-—for Brady and the Pats to go to a spread formation, in shotgun, and throw a 35-yard (in the air) bomb to Moss. Hell, it was just plain wrong for Brady and the rest of the starters to be in the game at that point. You do not do throw passes in that situation in D-1 college football when the final score could be beneficial to your BCS standings, and you certainly do not do that to professionals when the game has already been decided. The Pats scored a TD on that drive to go up 45 to 0, and Brady celebrated the TD as if it came in overtime. But, as they say on late night TV, “wait there’s more.”

The Pats were not content to stop there. Oh, BeliDick showed some mercy. BeliDick pulled Brady at 45 to 0. But, then he proceeded to have the backup QB, Casssel, throw on three of his first four plays...from shotgun formation...with multiple receivers spread out. One of those passes was a 21-yarder...on fourth down...with seven minutes left in the game! They were winning by a score of 45 to 0! Seven minutes!

What a dick.

But, wait there’s more. In that series with the backup QB, there was an incomplete pass. Cameras showed Brady on the sideline whining, begging, cajoling and finally yelling at the referee to call pass interference on the Redskins. In a 45 – 0 game...with seven minutes left. When Cassel scored a TD on another fourth down play, he and Brady did a leaping high five. I’m as competitive as anyone, but who raised these guys, Mephistopheles?

Good luck trying to get through the rest of the season with that huge frickin bull’s-eye on your back, Mr. Brady. You can thank your coach for putting it there and you can thank yourself for making it as big as a frickin house. I’d say good luck in the Super Bowl, but I don’t think your team will get there when you're on crutches and Matt Cassel is the starting QB. Manning will get all of the endorsement money again after another Super Bowl appearance this year. I only regret that your torn knee ligaments won’t be the result of a meeting with Taylor, Landry & Washington, LLP.

Back to the Skins
As I said, take a deep breath. It was only one game and it was one they were supposed to lose. Look, I hate to make predictions about individual games, but if they respond as I think they will, they will easily beat the Jets this weekend. Judging from the number of fans in the stands for this week’s Jets game, it could be like a Redskins home game. With a win, they will then finish the first half of the season with a 5 – 3 record. I do not know one Skins fan who would not have taken that before the season started.

Included in that 5 - 3 record are two games they should have won but lost (Giants and Packers), and one they should have lost but won (Cards). Given that information, they could easily have been 6 – 2 heading into the second half. If you average both of those highly probable outcomes (5 – 3 and 6 – 2) and project that out, they would finish 11-5, just as I had predicted at the beginning of the season. That will be good enough to win the NFC East this year.

How they get to 11 - 5
After the win over the Dolphins, I wrote a post in which I broke their schedule into three groups to estimate their potential wins. One was a group of five games in which I said that in order to get to 11 – 5, they had to win three. The five games included the Giants (H/A), Lions, Cards, and Packers. Well, they have two wins in four of those with one game left (Giants (A)), so they are on track to accomplish what I expected against this group.

Summary for ungrouped game:
Dolphins W

Summary for Group A (need win against Giants plus Groups B & C outcomes for 11 wins):
Giants L
Lions W
Cards W
@Packers L
@ Giants TBD

For the second group, I conceded that they had four tough games: the Bears, Pats, and two against the Cowboys. To get to 11 – 5, I said they would need to split these four. That’s no easy task; especially since they have already lost one (Pats) and now have to win two out of the remaining three. But, the Bears are not nearly as good as I thought they would be, so a split with the Cowboys and a win over the Bears in DC on 12/6 gets them where they need to be to earn eleven wins. So far, so good.

Summary for Group B (need a 2 – 2 record for 11 wins):
@Pats L
@ Cowboys TBD
Bears TBD
Cowboys TBD

In the final group, which consisted of six games, I said they would need to split with the Eagles and sweep the Jets, Bucs, Bills, and Vikings. Well, they have already earned at least a split with the Eagles by beating them in Philadelphia. The next Eagles game is 11/11 in DC, and the first of the four games that seemed very winnable at the beginning of the year is coming up on Sunday against the Jets. But, the Bucs at 4 - 4 and the Bills at 3 – 4 are playing better football than I expected. Here is where we might find a chink in the armor, especially since four of the six are on the road. Still, the Bucs did lose to the Lions, a team the Skins crushed, and the Skins get to play the Bills in DC.

Summary for Group C (need 5 -1 record for 11 wins):
@ Philadelphia W
@ NJ Jets TBD
Eagles TBD
@ Bucs TBD
Bills TBD
@ Vikings TBD

Given this framework, I think there are three key games that will decide whether they win the division, win a wild card, or go home for the playoffs. First, if they can find a way to sweep the Cowboys and not settle for a split, they are practically a lock for the division title. The second key game is against the Giants, although for reasons that I will make clear in a minute, that game is not as important as a second win against the Cowboys. The final key outcome will be whether they can win against the Eagles in DC and not have to settle for a split. It should be no surprise that I think the remaining games against division opponents are the most important.

A win against the Eagles will give them a cushion that I did not expect them to have at the beginning of the year. A win against them allows them to lose a game that I expected them to win, say the Bucs game, and still get to eleven wins. A sweep of the Cowboys gives the Redskins the tie breakers against them for the NFC East title. But, a win against the Giants just gets them to fulfill what I expected at the beginning of the year for the Group A games. I do not think they will need the series-sweep tie breaker against the Giants. It may seem crazy to say this about a Giants team that is currently 6- 2, but the Giants could conceivably lose six of their last eight games.

And I am not saying this just because the Giants have gotten off to fast starts in the past two years and then faded. I am not trying to reprise the prediction that I made last year after their hot start; a prediction that turned out to be correct. No, I am saying this because the extremely soft spot in the Giants schedule is behind them. The combined record of the Giants last four opponents is 4 wins and 26 losses. You can look it up. It gets much more difficult for the Giants from here.

Seriously, the Giants could easily lose each of the following games: Dallas, at Detroit, at Chicago, at Philadelphia, Washington, and New England. If they play way over their abilities and go 3 – 3 in these six tough games and sweep the Bills and Vikings, they will finish the year 11 – 5, but they will still miss out on the division title if two of those losses come against Washington, Dallas or Philadelphia. Why? The Giants would be 3 – 3 in the division. The Redskins or Cowboys would have a better division record and take that tie-breaker.

The Cowboys play five of their last eight games against division opponents, which are always tough games no matter what the teams’ records look like. In addition, they have to play Green Bay in Dallas and the Lions in Detroit. Say what you want, but the Packers (6-1) and Lions (5-2) just keep winning, so these are no gimmes despite the fact that the Skins trounced the Lions and should have beaten the Packers. Dallas’s five division games include two against Washington, and the last game of the year—which could decide everything—is in DC.

Given my three-part schedule breakdown, then, the Skins have some flexibility. Wins over Philadelphia, NJ Giants, and one win over Dallas along with the other outcomes that are likely and the Redskins are assured of a wild card spot and probably the division title at 11 – 5. A sweep of Dallas and they can take their 12 - 4 record to a bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. A split with Dallas and a loss to the Giants and Eagles leaves them at 9-7 (Ed: corrected a prior calculation error) and a wild card berth. The only really bad scenarios would be the latter one coupled with an unexpected loss to the likes of the Bucs, Jets, Bills, or Vikings. Even then they likely make the playoffs at 8 – 8, given the state of the NFC. Two unexpected losses and they’re likely out.

So, only two unexpected losses will keep them out of the playoffs. Take a deep breath Skins fans. With one caveat, the Redskins are a playoff team.

The Only Caveat
When will the injuries stop? C, RG, ROT1, ROT2, ROT3, SSLB, WSLB, RC, HB1, KR, WR1, and WR2 have all missed significant playing time this year. ROT1 and RC have been IR’d and RG will be IR’d if they are eliminated from playoff contention. Please make it stop. Seriously, it is statistically crazy for one team to have this many injuries two years in a row.

“High-Powered” Redskins Win 34 - 3 “Shootout” vs. Lions

2007-10-08T15:36:00.000-04:00

If I had to hear one more time about the Lions “high-powered” offense in another pre-game show, or read it in another newspaper, I would have burst a blood vessel. If I had a buck for every analyst who said the Redskins could only win this game in a shootout if they could just manage to stay close, I’d be a lot wealthier today. No one wanted to talk about the quality of the Redskins yesterday. They only wanted to talk about the quality of the Lions.

The D
Well, well, well. For two and half games the Redskin defense had been as dominating as I expected, but all of the naysayers came out after the loss to the Giants and concluded that the Skins’ D was not as good as it appeared in the first two wins. What game were they watching?

The Redskins defense spent most of the second half on the field against the Giants because the Redskins offense only got one first down prior to their last possession. Their first three possessions in the second half were threes-and-out. The Giants did not expose a flaw in the Skins’ D, they exposed the growing pangs that the Redskins had to go through with a quarterback who only had nine starts under his belt. But yesterday, clearly, the Redskins proved that they do have a dominating defense, maybe the best in the Conference, and they may have proved that Jason Campbell is all grown up.

The Lions came into the game with the NFL’s top-rated passing offense. They were averaging 313 yards per game in the air and were scoring 28.5 points per game. Yesterday, the Redskin defense held the Lions to 76-yards passing (144 overall) and three points. They sacked Kitna five times including one for a safety. They forced four fumbles, but the Lions miraculously managed to recover every one of them including one in which the call on the field was that the Redskins’ Rocky McIntosh recovered the fumble. The turnover was overturned on replay when the ball was ruled out of bounds on the old “electricity” rule. The ball was in bounds, but leaning against McIntosh’s leg when McIntosh’s hand was out of bounds. There were also some penalties that erased big Redskins plays. The score was not as close as the scoreboard suggested.

On top of it all, Sean Taylor and LaRon Landry kept knocking Lions players out of the game with punishing hits. Look for Taylor’s block on James Thrash’s big punt return on ESPN tonight.

So, with one-quarter of the season completed, let’s recap the defensive effort for the season using the notion that if the defense keeps the other team out of the end zone, they have pitched a shutout.

The D gave up one touchdown in the first game against the Dolphins when the Dolphins—down by three-points with four seconds left in the first half—went for a TD on fourth down from the five yard line. If there were 1000 chances to call a play in that spot, professional football coaches would call for the field goal unit 999 times out of 1000. That was a virtual shutout for the D and I am counting it as a shutout.

It was a veritable shutout for the D the next week versus the Eagles in Philadelphia when they kept the Eagles out of the end zone. By the way, the Eagles found the end zone EIGHT times the following week.

The D recorded a shutout in the first half against the Giants when the Redskins moved the ball on offense. Then the Giants scored three TDs in the second half.

Finally, The D recorded a shutout yesterday. That’s fourteen shutout quarters in sixteen quarters of football.

Championship Depth
The team has been decimated by injuries but has proved that it has a lot of depth; championship-quality depth. Their number one wide receiver Santana Moss did not play yesterday. Antwaan Randle El took over the number one spot and caught seven passes for 100 yards in the first half. He injured his leg late in the first half and did not return. James Thrash then became the number one wide receiver, followed by Keenan McCardell whom they signed on Monday and Reche Caldwell whom they signed last week. It did not matter one bit as Campbell continued to show great poise and check down to whoever was open.

Campbell had time to check down because he was not sacked and was hardly ever hurried. He was protected despite missing two starters on the right side of the offensive line and having a third O-line starter who just joined the team on August 24. That’s depth.

JC
Campbell easily had his best day as a pro completing over 79% of his passes for an 8.6 yards per attempt average, with two TDs and no picks. But it wasn’t his numbers but his sound judgment that impresses the most. He was almost flawless yesterday, and after the Giants game he showed the leadership of a veteran when he told everyone to calm down because they were 2 - 1 and in great shape. Maybe I underestimated him and how long it would take him to be a top QB in this league. I did not expect him to have the type of game like he had yesterday until week ten or so. That would have coincided with his sixteenth start, or one full year of games. Maybe he has already arrived. If so, my eleven-win prediction is too low. They already have the defense and running game for a deep run in the playoffs. If Campbell has already arrived, then we should expect home field throughout the playoffs.

Another Unbiased, Level-Headed, Hall of Fame Voter

2007-10-04T00:12:00.001-04:00

The guy who wrote the attached quote wrote it in his weekly column ranking the teams in the NFL. He also gets to vote for Hall of Fame inductees. Can you guess who it is? Do you think he voted to induct any Redskins players recently?

Maybe the Commish should evaluate whether his league has the optimal HOF voting process.

"Here come the screams, from Alexandria to Bethesda. Hey, punk! Titans go up one on their bye, Jags go up two, Skins go down two. Damn unfair, two? Well, Dan Snyder started it. He called me all those names, and in front of witnesses yet."

The New York Freds: 21 Straight Years of Futility and Counting

2007-10-02T17:19:00.000-04:00

Julio Down by the Ball Yard and Other Random Mets Adventures
As I watched Jorge Julio of the Rockies do his best to try to lose the Playoff for the Wild Card spot last night, I was reminded that Julio was the guy the Mets just had to have last year. So they traded away a top, veteran starting pitcher, Kris Benson, to get him. Benson was as good a number three starting pitcher as there was in Major League Baseball—a valuable player—and the Mets gave him away for nothing plus an unproven John Maine. They sure could have used Benson last year…and this year for that matter. I know he was hurt this year, but you don’t know what would have happened if the Mets had kept him. It couldn’t have been worse than trading him away.

I was then reminded that the Mets dumped Julio like a hot tamale after only a few months in a trade for a pitcher the Rockies were only too happy to get rid of themselves. That pitcher was Orlando Hernandez, a sixty-two year old Cuban player prone to breakdowns. Orlando was hurt a lot of this year and only managed to pitch 148 innings.

Orlando, it turns out, was the guy who replaced Steve Trachsel in the rotation. Steve Trachsel needed to be replaced because Willie Randolph could not stand him. Oh, Willie didn’t have a problem with his ability to pitch, at least he shouldn’t have. Trachsel was with the Mets for six years and was the team leader in wins in four of the five years that he was healthy. The only healthy year in which he didn’t lead the team in wins was 2002 when he finished with two fewer wins than Al Leiter. No, the reason Willie could not stand Trachsel was personal, and so the Mets did what was best for Willie and not what was best for the ball club. Trachsel, by the way, averaged 184 innings per year and allowed the bullpen to rest. Do you think the bullpen could have used a little rest this year?

Are you getting the sense that no one is in charge here? That there is no direction; no strategy for winning; no plan?

The 2007 Freds
Until now, I avoided writing about the 2007 New York Mets because I did not want my negative feelings about this team to bring me down. But, now I need a catharsis. For today at least, I am going to identify this team by their true name—the Freds—because this joke of a team is the culmination of twenty-seven years of Fred Wilpon’s ownership. Many things have changed over the past twenty-seven years. GMs came and went—Cashen, Harazin, McIlvaine, Phillips, Duquette, and now Minaya. Managers cycled through--too many to count. Players appeared and disappeared. Two things remain the same: the Wilpons still own the team and the Mets still fail to win World Series championships; twenty-one straight years and counting.

This 2007 team is Fred’s team. Each of the teams that blew pennants (1988, 1999 and 2006), blew World Series championships (2000), or more likely didn’t make the playoffs in the past 27 years (1980-1985 plus 1987 plus 1989-1998 plus 2001-2005 plus 2007), they were Fred’s teams, too. Four playoff runs with only one championship in twenty-seven years of ownership is pathetic for a major market team with no salary cap. It is arguable that half of the playoff runs would never have materialized if Nelson Doubleday was not an equal partner with Wilpon in those years. You may recall that Wilpon did his best to veto Doubleday’s trade for Piazza, who put the team on his shoulders for the run to the NLCS in 1999 and the pennant in 2000.

Fred Wilpon is a sophisticated businessman who is known for his real estate acumen, but when it comes to baseball, Fred is about as sophisticated as Fred Flintstone. Mr. Met never made sense as a mascot for the New York Metropolitans, but then again what does represent a Metropolitan? No, the perfect mascot for the Freds would be Fred Flintstone or a GEICO caveman.

Instead of cheering “Lets Go Mets,” we could cheer “Yabba Dabba Doo.” Whenever another Mets reliever blows a save, the Freds could blare Barney Rubble’s laugh over the loudspeakers. The bullpen car could be the Flintstone mobile powered by Rick Peterson’s feet. Whenever a Fred managed to reach home, Dino could be there to pounce on him. All of the ball girls could be called Hanna or Barbera. Ann Margrock could sing the national anthem while Stoney Curtis threw out the first pitch. With any foresight, they would have been the team to draft Chris Young out of Prinstone Univerity instead of the Pirates.

What the hell, Green already tracks down flies in right field like he’s wearing stone shoes, and Jeff Wilpon looks and acts like the Great Gazoo; inventing the doomsday machine (which he used this September) and floating around the team calling everyone dum-dums.

Let’s review: Last year at around this time I wrote that the 2007 Freds would be in trouble unless they addressed several deficiencies. Specifically, I said the Freds needed to do the following:

• Obtain two starting corner outfielders who could play defense. They needed to replace the aging, plodding, or always-hurt Green and Floyd;
• Obtain a starting second baseman;
• Obtain a pitcher worthy to be called a “number one” starting pitcher; and
• Keep the bullpen intact;

So what did the Fred do? The Fred went out and replaced Floyd with another ancient outfielder who had trouble staying in the lineup. Don’t get me wrong, Alou is a great hitter, but baseball players need to do more than that. One thing they have to do in order to help their team win is be healthy enough to play, but that’s often tough for forty year olds. The Fred also kept Green, whose first name is Itdropsinfrontof. Or was that Itsoverthegloveof? The Fred also failed to get a number one starting pitcher.

Okay, failing to acquire ALL of the players they needed, players that many other teams were also looking to acquire, is one thing. I wouldn’t have paid Zito all of that money either. But, not acquiring anything on this list by the start of the season and only getting their second baseman at the trading deadline, and then only because of an injury to Valentin? Come on. What's worse is not only did they fail to do the easy thing and keep the bullpen intact, they completely dismantled it.

I guess they thought that the bullpen was made of interchangeable parts and that they could just stick anyone out there. They let Chad Bradford walk when $3.5mm per year could have kept him. Because of his ability to get ground balls, Bradford has been one of the most effective relievers in MLB since he first made an MLB roster. He earned an entire chapter in Lewis’s book “Moneyball.” Bradford has a submarine delivery, so they replaced him with a sidearmer named Joe Smith. Who? I guess they figured they could get any unorthodox pitcher and get the same results. Really, none of it made any sense. It was as if they had absolutely no plan.

Goals Schmoals
I’m sure that I was not the only one who saw these deficiencies, so what does this say about the front office? Are they completely incompetent or is winning championships just not a priority? After twenty-seven years, I believe it is the latter. I think the Wilpons could care less about championships. Last year, when a championship should have been the only goal, the Fred lowered the bar and said he hoped the team would just make the playoffs. This year his goal was again to just “get into the playoffs…and do it the Mets way.” Huh? What the hell kind of goal is that? I don’t think Steinbrenner is sitting in Tampa over the winter saying: “Gee, I hope we can win enough games to squeak into the playoffs.”

Well, the Freds blew it this year because their starting pitching was horrible in the second half led by sub-par second halves from Perez and Maine. Each of the Freds starters saw their ERAs go up in their last ten outings. They blew it because of the disappearance of Martinez until mid-September, the disappearance of Glavine after his 300th, and Orlando Hernandez’s Alzheimer’s.

As I said last year, the Freds could probably expect that one or two back-of-the-rotation starters would emerge from the group of Maine, Perez, Humber, and Pelfry, and two back-of-the-rotation starters is exactly what they got. They got exactly what they should have expected from Glavine. Martinez pitched way above expectations when he finally showed up, but he wasn’t Pedro; he is no longer a legitimate number one starter. They should not have expected more. They also blew it because the bullpen sucked. If anyone was paying attention, they would have known it was going to suck.

Baseball's Biggest Joke/Laughing with Conan
So, the Freds are now Major League Baseball’s biggest joke after setting an all-time choking record by blowing a seven-game lead with seventeen to play. Conan O’Brien has had a running gag for several nights where Mr. Met tries to commit suicide but cannot find a noose or oven door big enough for his head. His stubby fingers cannot load a revolver. He comes home from an away game to find Mrs. Met in bed with the Philly Phanatic. It’s good stuff. But, honestly, the Freds should be congratulated for ever owning a seven-game lead with all of their shortcomings.

Wallpapering Citi Field
So, what was Fred Wilpon thinking this year? Perhaps he was too busy counting the revenue from his new cable channel and season-ticket suckers (um, holders). Perhaps he was deciding what color wallpaper to put in the bathrooms at Citi Field. Or, perhaps he got exactly what he aimed for. Yabba Dabba Doo.

Today, I received an email from the Freds apologizing for the team’s collapse. After thanking the fans for “record-breaking revenue” (er, “support”), the Freds said:

“…Ownership will continue its commitment in providing the resources necessary to field a championship team.”

That is exactly what I was afraid of, a continuation of the same commitment of the last twenty-seven years. Hey Gazoo, do I look like a dum-dum?

Protest
I will not subscribe for season tickets again until the Fred sells the team. You should not buy season tickets from the Fred either. It’s a simple plan to help bring a World Series championship back to New York National League baseball by getting rid of what stands in the way-—the owners.

It’s so simple, a caveman could do it. Don’t even give fifteen minutes to the Fred even if he promises to save you fifteen percent on tickets.

It is time for the Fred to sell the team.

NJ's Star Ledger Writer Makes one of his Infamous Predictions

2007-09-22T23:17:00.000-04:00

For Redskins fans outside of DC, I thought you would like to know that Paul Needell of the Newark Star Ledger made one of his infamous predictions on Friday. He believes that tomorrow Eli Manning

...is going to torch the Redskins secondary.

We should listen to what the writers from this paper have to say...and expect the opposite. This is the paper that had the Giants playing in the Super Bowl last year after six games. This is also the paper that last week wrote this:

We'll assume the Eagles will figure out how to catch punts and win this one pretty easily.

Skins 20 – Eagles 12

2007-09-21T19:04:00.000-04:00

Quick Comments

Attitude
I love how everyone on this team willingly does the little things that lead to wins. Did you see Santana Moss level the defensive back when Campbell scrambled down the right sideline for a 20-yard gain against the Eagles? Did you see Clinton Portis when he nearly decapitated the Eagles player that intercepted Campbell’s pass?

How about in the game against the Dolphins when Portis launched his body at the Dolphins Lineman who was pursuing Campbell and knocked him five feet out of bounds? (at 20 seconds) How about last year in the preseason when Portis made a tackle after an interception and separated his shoulder? Moss is a superstar receiver. Portis is having a Hall of Fame career. Most players like that avoid contact. Gibbs kept Portis out of the preseason precisely because he knows he cannot stop Portis from playing the game the way it is supposed to be played, which risks injury in meaningless preseason games.

JC
Jason Campbell took a HUGE step forward on Monday night. I’m not saying he will never have another bad game, but he proved he can handle a lot of pressure this week. It was his first Monday Night football game. It was his first game against the Eagles in Philadelphia and his first win against the previous year’s division winner. He has shown since his very first game that he gets it. He knows that his job is to get the ball downfield. There are a lot of QBs in the NFL that never get that concept. Oh, they talk a good game, but when the pressure is on, they run. Campbell waits. He waits as long as possible for his receivers to get open and then he’ll step right into a defender to deliver the ball. The 18-yard pass to back-up Tight End Yoder that set up Portis’s touchdown run is one example of many excellent decisions in his brief career. He scrambled away from Kearse and had some running room but Yoder was a little farther downfield and he delivered on the run for an 18-yard gain.

Yes, Campbell threw a pass that he should not have thrown and it was picked, just as he did against the Dolphins. Yes, Antwaan Randle El made an acrobatic catch on a ball thrown behind him and prevented another interception, similar to a ball he got his hands on last week to knock down and prevent another pick. Yes, Santana Moss was so open on a play in the fourth quarter that it looked like pre-game warmups. One of the best things about his game is his ability to learn from his mistakes and then not let them affect the next play. Campbell is going to be a top-five QB in this league for a long time.

Another OL Injury
Randy Thomas is the second offensive lineman to go down in as many weeks and he is the second from the right side of center; that worries me a little. I’m not worried because the Redskins lack depth. I’m worried because that depth is being challenged. They won’t DL Thomas unless they are out of the playoff hunt so Thomas could come back in December. Until then, they might have to play fourteen more games with backups on the right side, backups that cannot afford an injury.

Calls
The call on the field was a fumble when the Eagles receiver lost the ball. Replays showed the ball moving around in his arms before his knee hit the ground. The ball hit the ground after his knee hit the ground, but it was coming out already. Isn’t the rule that refs need indisputable evidence that the call on the field was wrong in order to overturn it? Where was that evidence? That took points off the board for the Skins.

The Back 7
I love the way Fletcher, Landry and McIntosh are playing. They have made the defense a top unit again.

Charles Barkley
At one point in the telecast on Monday night, the players were lining up to run a play. The reason that I know they were lining up is that I heard the crowd noise become loud. Unfortunately, viewers did not see the players line up because they had the cameras on Barkley and Kornheiser and Tirico in the booth. They spent the entire third quarter talking to Barkley on mostly non-football related nonsense at a crucial point in the game and went back to the field very late for each play. They did not once mention the importance of what was happening on the field. That was one of the worst performances I have ever seen.

This Week
The Skins play the Giants this week; another big, division game. The Skins are wearing their throwback uniforms, which are the same uniforms that they wore when I first became a fan. I think the Skins will beat the Giants this week like those 1970s Skins teams beat the 1970s Giants.

The Giants secondary is pretty bad. They cannot cover Tight Ends. I learned on Monday night that only Antonio Gates has more TDs than Redskins Tight End Chris Cooley since Cooley came into the league. They cannot cover Wide Receivers. Moss loves to play against NY teams. This may also be the week that Reche Caldwell gets some playing time.

Joe Gibbs is not taking this game lightly. His message has gotten through to the players. Portis said the all of the right things this week. Gibbs kept repeating that the Skins lost twice to the Giants last year. The Redskins can smell a great season and I think they will go full speed in every minute of this game.

If they win they will go 3 – 0 overall and 2 – 0 in the division. They would then only have to go 8 – 5 the rest of the way to meet my preseason prediction.

Skins 16 - Dolphins 13 OT / Preview Part II

2007-09-17T17:24:00.000-04:00

One down; fifteen to go

The Redskins defense rose to the occasion on opening day and held Miami to 3.3 yards per rush. Miami was lucky to get a TD, their only one, at the end of the first half when Cam Cameron went for it on fourth down when he should have kicked a field goal. Green barely got rid of the ball.

The new guy, London Fletcher, was all over the field as I expected. He co-led the team with twelve tackles and inspired the offense at half time with a motivational speech. The Redskins offense marched down the field in their fist possession of the second half and scored their only TD of the game. The addition of Fletcher was the main reason that I thought the Redskins would have a top-ten defense this year.

Season Preview: Final Thoughts on the Defense
Last week I gave a partial season preview and focused on the defense. I have a few more thoughts on defense before I focus on the rest of the team.

Rocky McIntosh spent the entire offseason at Redskins Park. It shows. Last year’s first round pick has been all over the field and also made twelve tackles last week including a sack. The youth movement on the D-line should result in fewer injuries.

The win in overtime would have been a win in regulation if Fred Smoot had held on to an easy pick of a ball that hit him in the stomach at the twenty with less than a minute to play. He could have walked into the end zone. While the Skins defense is significantly better than last year and may even be the best defense in the NFC this year, they still cannot hold on to the other team’s gifts. I don’t get it. Still, that is my only criticism of the D (I have one criticism of the O, later). They played as I expect them to play all year and barring injury they will get better.

Preview Part II

Offense
The defense will take the pressure off of Campbell by keeping the Skins in every game. It will take more than one mistake by Campbell to kill their chances for a win before the fourth quarter of a game. Given the poise he has shown so far I do not think there will be many games where Campbell makes multiple mistakes. His confidence is going to grow each game, and he will progress from a guy who only has to take care of the ball to win to a guy who enables his team to jump out early and never look back. I expect to see evidence of that transition by the ninth game this year.

O-Line
The loss of Jansen will hurt, but Heyer and Wade have shown they are more than capable. I also have felt that Jansen has not played nearly as well as before his Achilles injury three years ago, so the decline in talent there is not as dramatic as some believe. Partial proof of that, albeit in only one game, is that the Redskins rushed for 191 yards against the Dolphins who had the fourth best defense in the NFL last year. They lost Jansen early in the first quarter and earned most of those rushing yards in the second half. The O-line has four potential pro bowlers when Cooley is included. Cooley is one of Campbell’s favorite targets and has a new, lucrative contract. Expect him to have a monster year.

Rushing game
As I previewed last week, I expect Portis to have a big year. He touched the ball 17 times for 98 yards and the Skins only TD against the Dolphins. That is a 5.76 yards per carry average; very gaudy. Tonight the Skins face the Eagles who have had one of the worst rush defenses in the league for a while. The last time the Redskins faced the Eagles Ladell Betts ran for 171 yards against them. Keep an eye on Portis and Betts (P&B) tonight.

QB
In addition to the defense, P&B will also take pressure off of Campbell. By not having to put the team’s offense on Campbell’s shoulders, Campbell can develop at a natural pace. But, he has already made some throws this year and last that make me think that he is on the verge of breaking out. The bomb that he threw to Randle El to start the third quarter was perfect. One of the criticisms that I had with Brunnell was his inability to throw downfield and soften the defenses. Campbell’s QB rating for week one was not that impressive (his stats were significantly hurt by the INT that Lloyd should have caught for a TD—my other criticism) until you look at the yards per attempt. He threw for over ten yards per pop. JC can stretch the field.

When I heard that Campbell had spent the entire offseason at Redskins Park to work with Al Saunders and Gibbs to learn the offense, and work with his receivers to develop a rapport, I became optimistic for the Redskins chances. There is no doubt that he has the athletic ability to play in the NFL. There is no doubt that he is a competitor after going undefeated in his senior year at Auburn and last year beating the Saints—a division winner—and the Panthers, who at the time were in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot. Now there can be no doubt about his dedication. He has already cured the few mechanical mistakes that he made last year and is mechanically better at QB than Eli Manning.

Receivers
I guess we don’t have to wonder who the second wide receiver threat is anymore. Randle El grabbed the job from Brandon Lloyd the way cornerbacks have grabbed the ball from Lloyd his whole Redskins career. Seriously, can that guy attack the ball just one time? Campbell’s second pick was Lloyd’s fault. JC put the ball where he needed to put it for the TD. Lloyd just drifted back for it like he didn’t think JC could throw it that far and he wound up out of position. By the time he recovered he was in no position to out-jump the corner.

Skins fans also know that they can count on Moss. He had a terrible game against the Dolphins, dropping three passes that hit his hands (also hurting JC’s rating). That will not happen very often.

Overall Offense
The Redskins defense gave the Redskins offense one of the poorest starting field positions in the league last year by setting the NFL-record for fewest turnovers forced. They compelled the offense to be extraordinary to score. My original preview gave the reasons that I think they will have a top-ten defense this year, so I will not rehash that. This year, the offense will have better field position.

Special Teams
The Redskins lost four games by three points or less and six games by six points or less. Shaun Suisham joined the team for game twelve and promptly missed his first field goal try. He hasn’t missed since. His game winner in OT last week was as close to equidistant between the two uprights as possible with plenty of distance. He kicks like he has ice water in his veins. I am very confident in him. I do not expect the scores to be as close as last year, but in tight games the Redskins have an advantage that they didn’t have until Suisham arrived.

Derrick Frost can not only punt, he can tackle. If I had any criticism on special teams it is that I would like to see Randle El go North more often and East-West less often, but that is a small criticism. He has done a fine job as punt returner.

Conclusion
This year, the offense will have better field position, a better running game, better receivers, and a better quarterback for the whole season. The defense may be the best in the NFC. They have an excellent kicker. They have a year of experience working with their new Offensive Coordinator who put together dominating offenses in Kansas City. They have the best coaching staff in the NFL and the players respect them. And, although the strength of schedule at the end of the season can be very different from what it seems at the beginning (recall 2005 when the Redskins ended up with the most difficult schedule by far when it was thought it would be the fifth-easiest based on 2004’s results) the Redskins start this year with an easier schedule than their division opponents.

Since most pundits picked the Skins to finish dead last with about six wins, I think this team is going to surprise a lot of people. I predict they finish 11 – 5, which is certainly going out on a limb given last year’s record. I predict that they will win the division. I predict that they will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

After beating Miami, they have four tough games left on their schedule—New England, Chicago, and two against Dallas. A split of those four (hopefully with the wins against NFC teams and at least one against Dallas) and a split of the Eagles series will give them a cushion of two games to meet my prediction. Those two losses are likely to come against any of the Giants (division games are always tough), Lions, Cards or Green Bay. So a 3 -2 record against the latter means they would have to sweep the Jets, Bucs, and Vikings games. An 11 – 5 record, then, is not a huge stretch.

Hail

2007 Redskins Preview

2007-09-08T23:18:00.000-04:00

I’m back…it feels like I’ve been away for a long time.

Once again I planned to write my season preview before the first game, but once again work kept me busy. Here is a preview of the preview.

SUPER BOWL !!!!!!!!!!!!!

I don’t want to get carried away, but this is the NFC we’re talking about. Did you see what the Colts did on Thursday to the Saints—the team that many have already crowned as NFC champs? Trust me; the NFC is wide open. Almost anyone can take it. It’s just that the Skins have the best shot.

I’ll provide plenty of evidence to support this position in the actual preview, but here is a hint: It’s all about defense and the running game.

What’s that you ask? How can I be so confident in a team that had the 31st ranked defense last year? It’s simple math. It’s all about addition, subtraction, infinity, and regression to the mean.

Add London Fletcher, a perennial top-5 tackler, to the all important Middle Linebacker (MLB) spot and subtract Lemar Marshall, a good second-string Outside Linebacker, from that MLB spot and you get infinite improvement to the defense. In Gregg Williams’ defense the MLB is responsible for reading the offense and calling the defensive play. Fletcher is a terrific, sideline-to-sideline player with experience, who has averaged over 140 tackles a season in the last six years. His 146 tackles last year was third-best in the NFL. And, he hasn’t missed a game in that six-year span. When Joe Gibbs let Fletcher play this preseason, he was all over the field.

Add an exceptionally talented, hard hitting, and competitive LaRon Landry to the Strong Safety position and subtract Adam Archuleta and it’s the same infinite improvement. If you just watched that YouTube video and have seen fellow safety Sean Taylor play, then you know why they call the place between Taylor (#21) and Landry (#30) “Area 51.”

Add experienced cornerbacks like Fred Smoot to the depth chart and they don’t have to worry about losing Springs to injury nearly as much as they did last year..."to infinity and beyond.”

The knock on the Skins defense is that they do not have a good defensive line. Trust me; their back seven is so good they are going to make the front four look like the Steel Curtain. This defense is going to unleash a fury on opposing teams that Skins’ fans have never seen, at least not in my lifetime. One omen: When the starters were on the field during the preseason the Redskins did not allow a touchdown.

How about regression to the mean? Gregg Williams is one of the best defensive coaches in the game. His defenses have ranked in the top-ten for most of his career; his unit earned a three ranking in 2004—his first year with the Skins—and a nine ranking in 2005. Last year was a complete fluke. In addition to the two poor personnel decisions (Marshall and Archuleta), the entire defensive line, two of the linebackers, and half of the secondary missed significant playing time due to injury. That is not likely to be repeated, especially since they are a lot younger on the line due to some addition and subtraction.

On to the running game: Can someone explain to me how a running back like Clinton Portis gets overlooked? I believe that there is a bias against the Redskins in the media, and some things, like Peter King’s selection of the 500 best players in the NFL, go over-the-top to prove my point.

You remember Peter King. He is the clown who made it his “mission” to keep the all-time receptions leader (when he retired) out of the Hall of Fame. Well, Peter King does put Clinton Portis in the top 500, but only after he selected SEVENTEEN running backs ahead of Portis.

Look, I’m not so biased that I would have an apoplectic fit trying to convince someone that Portis is a better RB than, say, LT (even though Portis did have better stats in his first four years than LT), but putting seventeen running backs ahead of Portis on that list is absurd. It’s beyond reason. But then again, people always said that King knows Laurence Maroney, Marshawn Lynch, Michael Turner, and Willie Parker better than anyone. Who, you ask? Those are four of the seventeen Running Backs that King thinks are better than Portis.

I haven’t even brought up the fact that 121 players were selected to that list before the first Redskin was chosen, or that the only mention of the Redskins in the top-121 was this tidbit when he placed Champ Bailey sixth on the list:

"Skins rue Bailey-for-Portis deal, big-time"

A digression: Did you know that Gregg Williams did not teach Giants MLB Antonio Pierce anything? Pierce was an undrafted free agent who was given the Redskins’ starting MLB job after playing special teams for a few years. No, according to King, Pierce is a

“Self-made, productive playmaker.”

But, Marcus Washington, a second-round linebacker (Editor fixed an error on where MW was picked) who was not selected to a Pro Bowl until he left the Colts to play for Gregg Williams; that Marcus Washington is, according to King

“A Tony Dungy-developed star.”

I kid you not. Believe me, I am not digging for this stuff. It just bowls you over if you are paying attention.

Back to the running game. Here are the facts: In 2004, Clinton Portis’s season was cut short by an injury near the end of the season while he was trying to become the first running back in the history of the NFL to ….drum roll… rush for 1,500 yards in each of his first three years in the league. He finished 185 yards short of the record.

In contrast, King-favorite Marshawn Lynch is almost there. Lynch will become the first player in NFL history to rush for 1,500 yards in each of his first three seasons if he gets 1,500 yards in each of his next three seasons.

In Portis’s first four years—all healthy—he rushed for 5,930 yards and 45 touchdowns with a 4.7 yards per carry average. He added 1,129 yards and 4 touchdowns as a receiver. He missed most of 2006, his fifth year, due to injury but he still managed to get over 500 yards and 7 more TDs. If memory serves me correctly, only two Running Backs in NFL history had more rushing yards than Portis after his first three seasons, and the great LT was not among them (nor greats Laurence Maroney, Michael Turner, or Willie Parker). LT had 5,899 rushing after four seasons with a 4.3 yard per carry average. Close, but no cigar.

Portis owns the Redskins single-season rushing record. This is a storied rushing team. This is a team that had Hall of Famer John Riggins. This is a team that had exceptional running backs in Larry Brown, George Rogers, Stephen Davis, Gerald Riggs, Earnest Byner, and Mike Thomas. This is a team that had the Hogs blowing open holes for guys like Timmy Smith, whose 204 rushing yards is still a Super Bowl Record.

Look folks, overlooking Clinton Portis is like overlooking Alex Rodriguez because he didn’t break Aaron’s home run record in his first five years. I’m not saying Portis will finish with the most rushing yards in history, but if he has another five years like his first five (and Peter King and Dr. Z’s Hall of Fame votes are revoked), then Portis is a LOCK for the Hall. The guy just turned 26-years old. TWENTY-SIX!!!! What does Peter King know that I don’t? (Don't answer. That is a rhetorical question.)

In the worst-case scenario, if Portis misses significant time due to injury, Ladell Betts can still get them to the promised land. He stepped in last year and rushed for 1,153 yards on 4.7 YPC in nine starts.

So, let’s summarize this preview of a preview:
• the Redskins defense is going to be outstanding this year; and
• Portis is due for an outstanding year behind a very good offensive line;

Football championships are won with great defense and a great ground game.

And I haven’t even begun to talk about the year Jason Campbell is going to have….

Hail

Sports Talk Comments on HOF Voting Members

2007-02-08T16:37:00.000-05:00

I usually disagree with a lot of what Steve Czaban says, but not this:

...The larger problem with the HOF committee, is the personalities of some of the people on the list. To put it bluntly: they are insecure, petty, agenda driven writers. Let me point a few of them out, and back up my assertion with personal experience via my radio show.

1. Len Pasquarelli – ESPN.com

This guy is one joyless, arrogant, prick. I remember one time I was filling in for Jim Rome, and called to ask him if he would come on the show. I had interviewed Pasquarelli before on my local show, and we had done some pretty cordial stuff. So I figured, why not? Well, when I tell him it’s Rome’s show, even though I will be doing it, he lauches into an insanely over the top rage about how much he hates Rome and would never do the show, blah, blah blah. Wow. I just said: “Okay… “ and hung up the phone. Last I ever talked to him.

Then, a few months later, Pasquarelli gets into a on-air fight with WTEM’s Doc Walker over whether the Redskins hire of Marty Schottenheimer was a good move. Len was crushing the hire, because – this is now well known among Redskins fans – that Len HATES everything Dan Snyder does. Now, look, I’m WITH him on a lot of these points, but even I did not say Marty was a bad hire. So Doc starts digging in with Len on the air, and when the interview is over, Len tells our producer – and I quote – don’t EVER call me again to be on that show, and tell Doc Walker to go fuck himself.” Furthermore, do you remember when Len was PIMPING Jeff George for an NFL job after he washed out with the Skins? It was ABSURD. Every few weeks, Len would write about how “he’s still available!” It was a joke. I later found out, that there are family ties to George. Nice. Good journalism.

There was also a little prickly incident with my former colleague Sandy Penner at WFNZ in Charlotte, where Sandy (a big Eagles fan) introduces Len by referencing the lame-ass WR tandem of “Stinkston” and “Trash.” Len comes right on, and starts trying to castigate Sandy for calling Pinkston, STINKston. Incredulous, Sandy presses him on “well, do YOU think he’s good?” Pasquarelli then resorts to saying “Have YOU ever gone across the middle in the NFL?” Idiotic argument. On these things ALONE, he should disqualified from the HOF committee.

To top it off, Len on another station (gee, guess which one!) said this week about Monk not making it, that he didn’t think Monk was the kind of WR teams would throw double coverage at. Sure. Good thing “Coach” Pasquarelli broke down all that game film and took notes. Absurd.

2. Paul Zimmerman (Dr. Z) – Sports Illustrated

This guy is a legendary asshat. Not only have I had two of the most condescending interviews with him ever in my radio career, but he actually tried to get a colleague of mine at Fox Sports Radio FIRED for disagreeing with him on the air. I’m not kidding. Dr. Z called our boss, screamed him blue in the face, and started name dropping all kinds of people – at FOX TELEVISION! Our boss just laughed, and politely ended the conversation. Little did “Dr. Z” know, that Fox TV has absolutely nothing to do with FSR. Laughable. Also, there’s a classic clip I have from ESPN at one of the early NFL Drafts. Dr. Z was on, and he RIPPED the Dolphins drafting of….. DAN MARINO! The actual quote: “I don’t know where he’s going to get coaching down there.” Great call. Nozzle.

3. Peter King – SI.com

To say that King has “an agenda” is like saying Michael Jackson is “image conscious.” King is the most easily swayed, glory-hounding football writer in the business. It’s always about who he “just got off the phone with.” Get over yourself, dude. King practically banged the drum for years about Harry Carson getting in, while at the same time holding out Monk. Then, suddenly, King admits he TALKED to Joe Gibbs about Monk and changed his mind. Nice convictions. Even still, I’m not even convinced King actually VOTED for Monk this time, because a) the ballot is secret and b) he probably just SAID that, so he would get less hate mail from Redskin fans. King once saying that Danny Wuerrful would “throw for 3,700 yards and 20 TDs” under Spurrier here in Washington should be THE single most disqualifying demonstration of football ignorance in HOF committee history.

Mind you, these are just a few guys I KNOW have agendas, and biases that are on the committee. Who knows how many else there are. The problem with this committee is that it’s too damn small a sample of opinions and the voting process involves direct bullying and or lobbying in a closed room...

Yeah, like the lobbying ("sell, sell, sell") that Gosselin did for Irvin. Time for the NFL to clean house, wouldn't you say?

Read it all

Update: I found Czaban's original column on the topic of Monk's rejection:

Published Feb. 7, 2007 at 5:03 a.m.

"Once again, Art Monk has been given the shaft.

This latest omission from the Pro Football Hall of Fame is even more insulting given the induction of a mouthy, semi-literate crackhead whose signature move was the illegal push-off.

It remains both a colossal joke, and an inexcusable outrage....

...If you want a good laugh, find the 22-minute video of Monk highlights endorsing his induction to the Hall on the Web. On that video, you will hear announcer after announcer say: "Future Hall of Famer Art Monk" in reference to sure-hands No. 81.

I bet they all feel pretty stupid now, eh?

In a way, it might be better that Monk remains on the outside looking in. This way, the absurdity of the process will remain in the spotlight of the football loving public. While my personal agenda is certainly skewed by being a Redskins fan, I know that there will be future sleights of perhaps equal or greater outrage.

The Pro Football Hall of Fame should have the kind of weighty credibility that it deserves. Instead, it remains just the "Hall of Biased Sportswriter Opinions..."

Fire up the Furnace...There's a lot of Bronze to Melt

2007-02-03T16:42:00.000-05:00

Incredible.

That word perfectly sums up the voting for the 2007 class to the NFL Hall of Fame.

The NFL has allowed forty sportswriters to eradicate credibility from the game of professional football. In the process, those forty have made asses of themselves.

Conveniently, they elected a drug addicted, whore-mongering, Cowboy’s wide receiver, who is an embarrassment to the game, into Canton before Art Monk. I say these forty asses conveniently elected a Cowboy because there once was a movie called “North Dallas Forty.” In Irvin’s speech, after he discovered his great fortune, he profusely thanked the Dallas sportswriter Rick Gosselin, whom Irvin said had insinuated (my word) himself on to the voting committee and “sold, sold, sold” Irvin to the HOF voters. Gosselin turned the committee members into the North Dallas Forty. If he stuck with the theme of Irvin’s career, Gosselin would have persuaded their votes with crack and whores, but we'll never know what happened behind those closed doors.

Irvin said he and Gosselin campaigned together for three years to get him elected. I guess that is what it takes to get selected ahead of a better player…a campaign. Something no self-respecting football player should have to do. But, then again Art Monk is all about respect and Michael Irvin is all about embarrassment. I am not talking about how he embarrassed the game as a player ten years ago; I’m talking about how he embarrassed the game as recently as ten months ago.

But the argument isn’t that Monk was a better citizen than Irvin. Even a deaf, dumb and blind person could hear, speak and see that. No, Monk was simply the better receiver…by far…it’s not close. There is no objective standard that one could use to say Irvin was better than Monk or deserves to be there ahead of Monk. No statistic. There is nothing.

The HOF voting committee is a joke. That is why the busts in Canton should be melted for higher and better uses. The North Dallas Forty have just diminished the accomplishments of all the current members of the HOF, including Joe Gibbs.

It Is Time

2007-01-30T17:39:00.000-05:00

This Saturday, February 3, the NFL Hall of Fame voting committee will select the 2007 class for the Hall of Fame. Either Art Monk will be included in the 2007 class or all of the busts that are currently on display there should be melted down for lighting fixtures.

Don't take my word for it.

Click the link to this video. It was put together by a fan who printed it on DVDs and sent it to every HOF voter. Be patient because it is a big file. Watch it. Read and listen to what current Hall of Famers have said about Monk over his career--people like Ronnie Lott, John Madden, Ken Stabler, Frank Gifford, Charley Taylor, Dan Dierdorf, Dan Fouts, Todd Christensen, Merlin Olsen, Bill Walsh and Joe Gibbs. Each considered Monk a sure Hall of Famer when Monk was still playing.

Also, read what sure-thing future Hall of Famers had to say about Monk.

People like Jerry Rice who said in 1998:

"I feel, no doubt, (Monk) was one of the best receivers to ever play the game."

Or Bill Parcells (1995):

"Monk is headed to Canton downhill on roller skates."

Read Paul Tagliabue (1995).

Listen to Rod Woodson.

Read what Michael Irvin said.

Read what the super Bowl bound Colts President Bill Polian had to say about Monk.

Watch the video and count how many times you hear, "Future Hall of Famer" Art Monk come out of the mouths of current Hall of Famers.

When you retire as the all-time receptions leader; when you were the first NFL player to make over 100 receptions in a single season; when you retire with the record for most consecutive games with a catch; when you lead like Monk did, block like Monk did; when you were the only player on the Redskins offense to be on the roster for all four Redskins Super Bowl runs; when you lead your team to four NFC Championships and three Super Bowl championships in eleven years...

...YOU BELONG IN THE HALL OF FAME

Skins v Giants: 2006's Last Hurrah (for Both Teams?)

2006-12-28T11:41:00.000-05:00

Well, this is it for the Redskins. Their playoff hopes ended a few weeks ago. But, Giants fans are still dreaming.

And, I mean dreaming.

Today, Jay Greenberg of the NY Post writes that the Giants should win this weekend because the Redskins are a bad team. Hey, Rumplesgreenberg, did you take a nap on November 11 and just wake up? This is your wake up call. Read this out loud to hear how it sounds:

Sunday, 11/12 BEARS L 38-20

Monday, 11/20 at Jaguars L 26-10

Sunday, 11/26 at Titans L 24-21

Sunday, 12/3 COWBOYS L 23-20

Sunday, 12/10 at Panthers W 27-13

Sunday, 12/17 EAGLES L 36-22

Sunday, 12/24 SAINTS L 30-7

The Giants have lost six out of their last seven games and Greenberg calls the Redskins a bad team. Bwaa Ha Ha.

Let’s see: The Giants last seven games include losses to the Jaguars, Cowboys, and Saints. The Redskins played those same teams recently, but the Redskins won. And, the Redskins also beat the Panthers and should have beaten the Eagles. So, in games against recent common opponents the Redskins are 4 – 2 and the Giants are 1 – 5.

This is not an argument that the Redskins are good or even that the Redskins will beat the Giants. No, the point is to show just how delusional Giants fans like writers Greenberg, Magaraci, and Needell have become. Even if the Giants beat the Redskins, they will be demolished by their first-round opponent. Just don’t tell that to any writers at the NY Post or Newark Star Ledger.

Here’s my take on the game: Two weeks ago, after the Redskins played their best game on defense and shut down the Saints’ NFL-leading offense, I said that the Redskins could win out. All eleven starters on the defense played in that game and played well. Then, Marcus Washington, their best linebacker, hurt his knee in practice the following week and was put on IR. Then, Shawn Springs, their best DB, broke his shoulder on the first play of the next game and was put on IR. Then, Philip Daniels, their best DE, developed a heart-rhythm problem and missed most of the next game (our prayers are with him). That’s one very important player from each of their three units.

In a nutshell, that is how this Redskins season has been from the start. I should have known on opening night against the Vikings when Pierson Prioleau, a very good safety and excellent special teams player, sprained a knee on the opening kickoff without even being touched. And, of course, he missed the entire season.

With all of the Redskins injuries this year, their coaches spent most of the season evaluating young talent at important positions for next year. Jason Campbell has shown he is the real deal. First rounder Rocky MacIntosh got his first strart last week taking Marcus Washington's place and looked great. They signed kicker Shaun Suisham, who has been a perfect eight-for-eight on FGs since missing his first one, a fifty yarder. Suisham could take the team lead in scoring with a good week, which is pretty pathetic given it will only be his fifth game as a Redskin.

And, Ladell Betts took over for the injured Clinton Portis and has shown he is the prototypical Gibbsian running back who can gain huge chunks of yards running between the tackles. He’ll break the team record if he rushes for his sixth straight 100-yard game against the Giants. Betts gives the Redskins tremendous options. What NFL team wouldn't want a talented young running back like Clinton Portis? How many would pass up the chance to get Portis fo a couple of high draft picks?

The Giants have everything to gain from playing hard and playing to win. The Redskins have nothing to gain but pride and experience. If the Giants do not win this game with all of the Redskins injuries, it will only be because the Giants are a really bad team that has no business even thinking about the playoffs. It will only be because the Giants are a worse team than the Redskins. At least the Redskins have hope for next year. For the Giants, this is the best it is going to be for a long, long time; enjoy it while you can Jay Greenberg, but don't bet the ranch this weekend.

The Counter Trey family will be screaming from our seats in 118 on Saturday, spending a little time at the Library of Congress, and we hope to get a chance to pay our respects to President Ford. Happy New Year!

Redskins 16 Saints 10

2006-12-19T18:28:00.000-05:00

The Redskins defense showed up for two games this year: The Panthers game and this week against the Saints. It didn’t show up for the win against the Cowboys—it gave up about 400 yards in that one. It didn’t show up for the win against the Jags. The offense saved that one...in OT. It didn’t show up in any of the losses. But, against the best offense in the NFL, it showed up. This is why Redskins fans are frustrated this year. If the defense had played the way everyone expected them to play for the whole year they would have coasted to the division title. Hell, if they just played that way in six other games they would have coasted.

The win on the road against the Saints was excellent. Campbell took care of the ball. That’s three times in five starts that he took care of the ball. He looks poised and he made at least one great throw—the one to Moss for the touchdown. And the swarming defense made it hold up. It was fun.

Quick hits:
1. On the Comcast postgame show, as the Redskins were celebrating victory, Steve Czaban complained that Gibbs didn’t go for a touchdown on fourth down, late in the fourth quarter, with a 13 – 10 lead. I’m tired of this guy nit picking. The field goal forced the Saints to drive 62 yards for a touchdown. Instead they only drove 46 and the Redskins took over on downs. Had Gibbs gone for it and failed to get the two yards he needed, the Saints would have tied it at the end of regulation and forced overtime. Does anyone think the Redskins could have pulled out an OT win on the road and in a dome? Lets just say the odds weren’t with them. Does anyone believe that after an overtime loss that Czaban would have congratulated Gibbs for his guts? Puhleeze. Czaban needs to be quiet…for the rest of the year.

2. Carlos Rogers showed me up. I made a joke about how Rogers can’t catch anything, not even a disease, and so against the Saints he gets his first INT of the year (second? of his career). It wasn’t easy, though. As one Redskins player said, he caught and bobbled it three times so he probably wants credit for three INTs. He bobbled it despite having position, squaring up to it, and getting both hands extended. This is the picture I was looking for: (Hat Tip: Curly R).

It is no coincidence that the two games in which the Redskins defense showed up were also Rogers' two best games of the year. Against the Panthers he shut down Smith and Keyshawn whenever they lined up on his side. Against the Saints he gets a huge pick and deflects the Saints game winning touchdown pass in the endzone. I expect this first-round pick to play like that in all sixteen next year.

If Rogers and the defense play that way, the Redskins will dominate next year. This year they had four losses by three or fewer points, and two additional losses in which they led at halftime (Colts and Falcons). It won't take much to turn it completely around.

3. Back in October I posted about an article that I read on the Giants in the Newark Star Ledger (NJ’s newspaper with the largest circulation and one with big-time Giants coverage). At the time the Giants were 4 – 2. In the article, which spanned about 75% of the front page of the sports section, Mike Garafolo ticked off the reasons why the Giants would easily win twelve games and walk away with the division championship. BWAA HA HA HA.

I pointed out that there were six tough games that Garafolo gave to the Giants as victories without much question—the Bucs, Bears, Cowboys, Eagles, Saints, and Redskins. I said that at best they can count on four wins from those six games and probably would lose three and not win the division, especially if two of the losses were to division foes. Hell, I conceded the sweep of the Texans and Titans. Wrong.

So the Giants lost to the Bears; then they lost to the Jags; then the TITANS; then Dallas…all in a row. The Skins showed them how to beat the Panthers and they followed the script. But last week’s loss makes it three losses out of those tough six including two to division foes; and guess what? They won’t win the division.

Guess what else? After Paul Needell, Magaraci and Garafolo pissed on the Redskins all year; writing about how bad the Redskins were; how Joe Gibbs is on the hot seat; how Mark Brunnell sucked; how happy they were that Dan Snyder could not field a winner (ignoring last year’s playoff run that went deeper than the Giants’ run); how, in the “What We Learned” column, how the Redskins were the worst team in the division; guess what?

The Giants will probably lose to the Saints this week which sets up their last game of the year as the game to decide if the Giants even make the playoffs. The Giants play the Redskins that game. How sweet would it be to knock the Giants down into the basement, tied with the Skins with the same record? After the Star Ledger pissed on the Redskins all year, they will probably wind up with the same record with a season series split. Local papers should never celebrate Super Bowl Championships in October.

Redskins 19 Eagles 21: It's Mathematical

2006-12-13T20:05:00.000-05:00

The Redskins loss last week has made it official: They are eliminated from playoff contention. Math reminds me that there is a new SAT question making the rounds:

If Carlos Rogers, the Redskins cornerback:
a. Exchanged body fluids with a person infected with HIV;
b. Exposed an open sore to a leper; or
c. Was exposed to a high concentration of bird flu;
What would he die of first?

Okay.

It's a trick question.

Carlos Rogers never catches anything.

Redskins 14 Falcons 24

2006-12-04T10:55:00.000-05:00

When the Redskins lost to the Eagles, I wrote that it was the right time to make a switch at quarterback to Jason Campbell, but only because the Redskins playoff hopes were virtually, if not mathematically, dead. Mark Brunell was not the problem; the Redskins’ defense was the problem. I wrote that switching to Campbell while their playoff hopes were still alive would be asinine because the long history of the NFL shows it is very rare for a young quarterback, getting his first starts, to lead his team to the playoffs. I wrote that Joe Gibbs played this perfectly, despite the wailing from Skins fans who didn’t get it; despite the Skins fans who said that Gibbs has lost it. Yesterday, we saw why it is rare for young quarterbacks to lead their teams to the playoffs. Young quarterbacks make stupid mistakes.

That interception Campbell threw in the third quarter when he was in the grasp of the defender was “ill advised.” It came on the opening drive of the third quarter with the Redskins leading 14 – 10. The Skins had handed off to Betts three times on that drive and he gained twenty-seven yards. They had already moved to within field goal range at Atlanta’s twenty-one yard line. The interception was returned to the Redskins twenty-five and two plays later, the Falcons had their first lead in the game, which they never relinquished. I’ll bet Campbell eats the ball in that situation in the remaining games this year.

Jason Campbell is very talented and that INT was his first rookie-like play in three games; it had to happen eventually. He looked like a field general when the Skins marched for fourteen points on their first two drives to take a 14 – 0 lead. The second touchdown came on a bomb to Moss. It wasn’t a perfect throw, but it worked because Moss attacked the ball. The call and Campbell’s calmness in executing it were impressive. At worst the ball would have been picked and it would have pinned the Falcons deep like a great punt. Instead it gave them a huge early lead that looked insurmountable until the “young” quarterback showed up.

With a 14 – 0 lead, the offensive line blowing open huge holes, and Betts running through the holes as if the Falcons were playing in slow motion, I thought that there was no way the Redskins would lose that game. Ladell Betts got 155 yards on 28 carries. That’s a great 5.53 yards per carry average and there were few plays that resulted in little or no rushing yards. On that opening drive in the third quarter he averaged nine yards per carry before the INT.

After the loss to the Eagles, it was time to make the investment in Campbell. It was time to take some capital out of this season and allocate it to next year. Based on what I’ve seen, it is an investment that should start to give returns next year, which is a pretty quick payoff by historical standards. He will have had seven starts in the NFL by the end of the season. He will learn from his mistakes pretty quickly given the tremendous coaching talent that the Redskins have around him.

And there is still the ability to have fun this year. Winning the Super Bowl is every fan’s dream, but if that is the only standard by which to judge a season, then there would be millions of unhappy fans each year. There are two games left against hated division rivals. It would be fun to ruin their seasons.

Still, had the Redskins won yesterday I would have written today that they were back in the hunt because of the horrid NFC. Amazingly, every team that was ahead of the Skins that the Skins needed to lose, lost yesterday—the Vikings, Packers, Rams, Lions, 49ers, Giants, and Bucs—that’s a perfect 0 - 7. What are the odds of that? (Update: My thirteen-year old son told me the chances of that happening are 1 in 128, which is exactly right if the teams are evenly matched (i.e. if the point spread is truly even). How the hell did he figure that out at thirteen? I didn't know that stuff until college.)

As I watched Gibbs’ postgame press conference, I got the sense that Gibbs was fuming. I think he said something about getting away from “Redskins” football. Later we learned that Gibbs hurt his hand. Did he hurt it punching something? The Redskins got away from Redskins football and blew a chance to climb back into the hunt. Was Gibbs angry at himself for switching to Campbell too soon? If so he shouldn’t be. You have to play the odds, and the odds dictated that they had to play Campbell after the Eagles loss. Sometimes you play the odds correctly and still lose, but in the long run you have to play the odds if you want to win.

Next Year
Last week the Redskins beat the Carolina Panthers with great defense. They played defense the way I expected a healthy Redskins defense to play all year. All eleven starters played. If they were healthy all year, they would certainly be in the playoff picture today. Yesterday, Shawn Springs missed another game, this time due to a hamstring injury. He had practiced all week, but told the coaches he felt it on Sunday morning. I like Springs, but is he quitting on this team? The defense gives up too many big plays when Springs doesn't play.

Joe Gibbs is sending the right message. He has basically said that the rest of this season is about auditioning for a job next year. He told them he is looking for character guys who don’t quit even when they are out of the playoffs. And he is giving Campbell his chance to get up the learning curve. I hope to see first-round draft pick Rocky McIntosh get some more playing time at Linebacker this year, too.

Hallelujah! Peter King has Finally Seen the Light

2006-11-27T15:58:00.000-05:00

Peter King is now endorsing Art Monk for the Hall of fame after years of campaigning and voting to keep him out. Finally!

King mentions one of the absurd comparisons that I wrote about months ago: Monk has more receptions than the combined receptions of Hall of Famers Swann and Stallworth.

King quotes Bill Polian, the GM of the Indianapolis Colts, as saying: “You guys (Hall of Fame voters) are running the risk of becoming irrelevant,” which is exactly what I wrote months ago. Polian thinks it is ridiculous that Monk and Reed, who played for the Bills when Polian was GM there, are not in the Hall already. So, why have they been denied for so long? I am convinced it is the pettiness of King and guys like him (e.g. Zimmerman) who cannot stand to see more Redskins from that era get inducted than their beloved Giants. But, when their credibility was questioned by Polian, they realized the game was up. Now, King knows he has to ditch the pettiness if he wants to maintain his credibility and keep getting those NFL gigs.

King goes on to say that he only rethought his position on Monk because the guy he was advocating for induction for many years, Harry Carson, finally got in last year. It took a Washington Post writer to point out to King that all of the reasons that King used to argue vociferously for Carson were valid for Monk.

I would add, though, that unlike Monk, Carson never led the league in anything or retired as the all-time leader in any category applicable to defenders. Before Monk, no receiver ever had triple-digit receptions in the NFL, and it took a rule change and eight years for Rice to surpass Monk’s single-season record. It took several years and a rules change for Rice to pass Monk’s all-time receptions record and record for most consecutive games with a catch.

Monk played most of his career when cornerbacks were allowed to hand check and body check receivers all the way down the field until the ball was in the air. Rice played most of his career when cornerbacks were not allowed to touch receivers after five yards. Monk played most of his career when there was no such thing as “unnecessary roughness;” it was football, a rough sport. Rice played most of his career when a difficult spin move on Dancing with the Stars would be flagged. Monk played most of his career when the guy who was supposed to deliver the ball to him, the quarterback, was allowed to be hit after he threw the ball, making it hard for QBs to deliver the ball. Rice played most of his career when quarterbacks couldn’t be breathed on unless the ball was in their hands. Monk played all of his career with Theismann, Schroeder, Williams, Humphries, Rypien, and a hand full of other quarterbacks throwing the ball to him. Don’t bother to check the Hall of Fame roster for their names. Rice spent virtually his whole career with two quarterbacks: Montana and Young. They both happen to be Hall of Famers. Young has the highest career passer rating in NFL history and Montana may be the best quarterback who ever stepped on the field.

Rice absolutely deserves to be in the Hall of Fame and will likely get in on the first ballot. Monk should have been a first-ballot Hall of Famer six years ago and it was King and Zimmerman who campaigned to keep him out. Now that their beloved Carson is in, they look ridiculous for keeping Monk out. It took a guy like Polian, a well-respected GM, to point out their bias, their silliness. What took Polian so long? Where were the rest of the personnel guys in the NFL?

Before ending this on a positive note, let me point out one more bit of glaring bias that screams at you when you take a step back and evaluate the Hall of Fame inductees over the past fifteen years. Between 1981 and 1991, the Redskins under Joe Gibbs played in five NFC Championship games and won four of them. They played in four Super Bowls and won three of them. I would argue that the best Redskins team ever was the 1983 team, which is the only one that lost a Super Bowl in that eleven-year span. The 1983 Redskins were defending Super Bowl champions who obliterated about a dozen major NFL records in the regular season including the record for most points scored in a season (541 points) and average margin of victory (13.06 PPG); each helped in part by their still extant turnover differential record.

It was because of how easily they vanquished everybody in 1983 that they took their Super Bowl opponent lightly. Their opponent was the Raiders, a team that the Redskins had already beaten in the regular season and which played in the far-inferior AFC. If the Redskins had taken them seriously that Sunday, Gibbs would be a perfect 4 – 0 in the Super Bowl and pundits would still be talking about how the 1983 Redskins team was the best that ever played in the NFL. C'est la vie.

The point is: The Redskins were a dominating franchise between 1981 and 1991. There have only been five other dominating franchises in the NFL since Super Bowl play began: The 1960s Packers; the 1970s Steelers; the 1980s 49ers; the 1990s Cowboys, who won three Super Bowls; and the 2000s Patriots. (Don’t talk to me about the Vikings in the 1970s or the Bills in the late 80s-early 90s. They didn’t win championships. The 1970s Dolphins and Cowboys? Close, but not quite there.)

The 1960s Packers have eleven HOF inductees including Vince Lombardi. The 1970s Steelers have eight inductees including their head coach, Chuck Noll. The 1980s 49ers have four including Joe Walsh, but Rice and probably Roger Craig will be there soon making it at least six. It is too early to tally the 1990s Cowboys, and the 2000s Patriots are still playing.

So, how is it possible that there are only two members of the 1981-1991 Redskins who have been inducted in the Hall of Fame and only one is a player? That is the definition of bias. Jacoby and Grimm should be in already. Bostic and May should get serious consideration. They were the Hogs, the most storied offensive line in history. Their innovative and motivational coach, Joe Bugel, should be in already. Monk should be in already. If Carson can make the Hall, then Monte Coleman should be in too. If Lawrence Taylor is in the Hall, then Dexter Manley should be in, too. Defensive Tackle Dave Butz took on triple teams and still stuffed the run. Brian Mitchell retired as the all-time leader in all-purpose yards (returns, rushing, receiving). He should be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Mark Moseley retired as the record holder for most consecutive field goals, most points in a season, and was the only kicker to ever win an NFL MVP award. He should be in the Hall already. Darryl Green will be eligible soon. If he is not elected on the first ballot, then we should ignore the Hall of Fame.

Look, not all of the Redskins on the above list should be in the Hall, but at least five more players should be in the HOF if the HOF voters are consistent with their previous voting patterns. Anything less means that there is a campaign against Redskins players akin to the campaign that King is now ending against Monk.

Now, here is what King said:

In some ways I've been part of the problem. Even though Monk retired with the all-time receptions record, I've historically been anti-Monk for several reasons...(Ed. Note: The reasons are all nonsense which I've written about before. King said he wouldn't vote for Monk because he only won three popularity contests--i.e. Pro Bowls, which is just asinine.)The leadership, the selflessness, the durable productivity ... all the same (as Carson). I decided I should re-think my position.

As I made my rounds of training camps this year, I asked veteran coaches about Monk and the one word that kept coming up was "unselfish.'' His downfield blocking prowess kept coming up. His long-term numbers were almost Yastrzemski-like (one or two great years, lots of productive ones, very reliable). (Ed. Note: Did Yaz retire as the all time home run leader? No? How about all-time leader in batting average? No? Runs scored? No? How many championships did Yaz lead his team to? None? Then, Monk’s numbers were much more than Yaz-like; much more. This is more damning with faint praise from King.) But when I talked to Joe Gibbs on Friday, the one thing that stood out was the body of work we don't see -- the downfield blocking, the quiet leadership, and this: Unlike his louder receiving mates Clark and Ricky Sanders, Monk, according to Gibbs, never once said he wanted the ball more. "We used him almost as a tight end a lot,'' said Gibbs, "and not only did he do it willingly, he was a great blocker for us. If he'd been a squeaky wheel, who knows how many catches Art would have had. But he cared about one thing -- the team.''

So many of the things Carson did can't be quantified. Similarly with Monk. Not only did he lead the NFL in all-time receptions when he retired, but he blocked superbly and was the most important locker-room influence on a three-time Super Bowl champion. I'm voting for him.

I'll support Monk and Irvin...in my voting...

Look, I want to end on a positive note, so I am going to ignore King’s vote for Irvin. Just make sure Monk gets in, big guy.

I have a million things I want to write about this past weekend's NFL games (from the Giants (OMG) to the Redskins), but I want this post to stay up top for a while.

Update 11/29/06
King's article prompted me to examine Andre Reed's career and compare it with Michael Irvin’s. All I can say is: Has Peter King lost his mind?

From a statistical standpoint, there is no comparison. Andre Reed had a much better career than Michael Irvin in every respect save one: Irvin's team won three Super Bowls and Reed's team lost four. But, to attribute the victories solely to Irvin and the losses solely to Reed is just crazy. Dallas had a much better TEAM than the Bills in those days. It’s more relevant that Reed was the primary receiver on a team that won four AFC Championships. In fact, Reed slightly outplayed Irvin head-to-head in the 1992 and 1993 Super Bowls (Reed 14 catches 227 yards 0 TDs; Irvin 11 catches 180 yards 2 TDs). Reed should not be penalized for a lack of Super Bowl wins because he was drafted by the Bills.

As for his career, the numbers are not even close. Reed ranks higher than Irvin in every category and in most categories he is way ahead of Irvin. For example, Reed had 27% more receptions than Irvin (Reed 951 catches to Irvin’s 750); eleven percent more yards (13,198 yards to 11,904); and thirty-four percent more touchdowns (87 to 65). Reed even had more touchdowns in the post season.

Those are the statistics, but they say nothing about the man. Irvin definitely was a better drug abuser than Reed.

Polian is right about Reed and Monk. King is wrong about Irvin. He shouldn’t get in the Hall of Fame just because he was lucky to be drafted by a team that received tons of draft picks in the Herschel Walker trade including the one used to draft Emmitt Smith, the primary reason for all of those Cowboys championships.

Skins 17 - Bucs 20: The Future is in the Future

2006-11-21T18:15:00.000-05:00

I was very impressed by the play of Jason Campbell on Sunday. He played much better than I expected. His arm looked great and he scrambled out of at least one sack to convert a third down, but I was most impressed with his poise. On his first touchdown pass, with the ball on the Bucs’ five-yard line, he rolled right and waited several beats for a receiver to break open. The only receiver in the area was Cooley and he eventually worked his way up to the goal line to enable Campbell to deliver the ball cleanly in front of four defenders.

Most young QBs playing their first game would have seen that nothing was initially open and would have tried to run for the score in that spot. Hell, guys like Vick still try to run in that spot. But, running was low percentage compared with a throw. Campbell was six- to eight-yards away from a score with four Bucs in the area. He showed veteran-like patience on that play. The play reminded me a lot of “The Catch” that 49ers fans know well. Later, Campbell ran the two-minute offense without a hitch and threw a touchdown late in the game to pull within three. He didn't look like a deer in headlights. I don't think he could have done any better in a debut.

Bill Maas's Strategery
A thread started on ExtremeSkins had the title: "Bill Maas Sucks." Maas called Sunday's Redskins game. I have to agree with the thread starter. In fact, I logged onto the internet, muted the TV, and synched my TIVO picture to the Redskins’ radio announcers Sonny Jurgensen and Sam Huff just so I didn't have to listen to Maas. But, I disagree with the thread starter on why he sucks.

The thread starter felt that Maas was biased against the Redskins. I usually have my bias antennae up and they can pick up bias from miles around even when it doesn't exist, but I didn't hear much of that from Maas Sunday. No, Bill Maas sucks because he couldn’t even figure out some of the most basic strategies in the game. For example, my thirteen year old son played organized football for the first time this year and I have been trying to teach him strategy. So, before Campbell took his first snap Sunday, I told my son that Gibbs was going to call a deep pass on the first play. “Why?” he asked, which is the best response you can get from a thirteen year old.

I said it was because Campbell never played in a regular season game before and he was going to be nervous. One of Campbell’s strengths as a quarterback was his arm strength and Gibbs would want to give him a task that would play to his strengths. Plus, I said, a simple handoff would not do as much as a deep pass to get rid of the butterflies. I said a deep pass would be better than a short one because it is less likely to be picked off, which would be a confidence shaker. And, since a deep pass is less likely to be completed, a completion would send his confidence through the roof, but an incompletion would not break it.

Gibbs = Humble/Parcells = Media Hound
And, sure enough, Gibbs called a deep pass on Campbell’s first snap. To all of those Redskins fans calling for Gibbs’ head, all I can say is this: You do not give him the credit he deserves for the things he does to help this team. And, Gibbs is too humble to take credit for himself, so you will never hear the “look at me” stuff you hear from other NFL coaches like Bill Parcells. Gibbs would be mortified to read an interview in the middle of the season where Gibbs discussed his strategy against specific football teams like the interview Parcells gave to the New York Times Magazine in October. Calling that deep pass on the first play of the game is another example of the hundreds of positive things that Gibbs does that you will never hear a peep about unless you figure it out for yourself. All Bill Maas told us was that it was a good call because everyone expected a run on the first play.

The Pass
And, oh, was that pass a beauty. Brandon Lloyd beat single coverage down the left sideline and was ahead of the defender by about a yard. Campbell threw the ball fifty-eight yards in the air with little effort. He put just the right amount of arc on it and hit Lloyd in full stride right on the hands about chest high. We can only imagine what the rest of the day would have looked like if Lloyd had held on to it.

Carlos Rogers
Speaking of holding on to passed balls, what is up with Carlos Rogers? Last year his dropped interception cost them an easy touchdown against Seattle and a date to play in the NFC Championship game. This year he has already dropped about five passes that hit him in the hands including one at the goal line on Sunday. Last year, the drops were ignored because it was his rookie year. Now he has to start playing like he has digits at the end of his wrists.

The Defense
Speaking of defense, has the Redskins defense fallen off a cliff or what? It makes little sense. The Springs injury hurt them early and MVP Griffin’s sporadic absences didn’t help, (neither did losing Marshall and Rogers and Washington and Salave’a and Daniels and …you get the idea), but they have had the starters on the field for the last three games. I thought they did a great job against the Cowboys when they finally had all eleven starters on the field for the first time, and I expected them to step it up against Philly, get a win and get back in the hunt. But, they have regressed in the last two games. Is it simply a matter of having lost the will, or is it something else?

The Future of the NFC East
Finally, I have to admit something, Skins fans. I was sure the Redskins were doing the right thing by keeping Brunnell in there while they still had a shot at a title because young quarterbacks rarely win consistently enough to win titles, and I still believe that is true. But, deep down I was very concerned about future NFC East races. I saw Eli Manning getting his shot and I envisioned him, with his pedigree, evolving into the best quarterback in the NFC East over the next few years, which would have made it difficult for the Redskins. A few weeks ago I saw Romo get his shot and do well and thought he might keep the Cowboys ahead of the Skins for a couple of years. And, McNabb is still young and will be a leader on the Eagles for several more years. I thought the Redskins would have an uphill battle for at least two or three years while Campbell developed. Now, I’m not so sure.

Eli Manning might not become the quarterback that I worried he would. The guy has an unbelievable genetic makeup, so how the hell is he still making mechanical mistakes when he has thirty-three starts under his belt? Didn’t his dad or brother teach him this stuff in the backyard? Occasionally a pro will develop a bad habit that he has to break, but that is usually after they had already worked out all of their mechanical flaws in college. But, it seems that Manning has never gotten it right. When I heard earlier this year that he consulted his college coach who said his mechanics sucked, I thought: How could that be? He’s a friggin’ Manning? And, in the Bears and Jaguars games, the announcers kept highlighting his mechanical flaws which led to poorly thrown balls.

Romo looks like the real deal, but I think Campbell is too. I know Campbell has only played one game, and will probably look bad in a game or two this season, but he showed me that he understands the important things like taking care of the ball. He showed he is a competitor who has a nose for the end zone. In short, he is only two games behind Romo and may already be ahead of Manning. The future looks a little brighter for the Redskins today.

Eagles 27 - Skins 3: A Fitting End

2006-11-13T17:41:00.000-05:00

Injuries have kept the real Redskins team from showing up this year. Although they hung in until their ninth game, yesterday’s loss means it will take a miracle for the Redskins to make the playoffs. They will have to win each of their last seven to see the post season and that looks less likely today knowing that yet another injury has taken their best skill player on offense—Clinton Portis. So, the season is practically over and it was a fitting end. Just as injuries are mostly the result of poor luck, the Redskins season ended by a loss due mostly to poor luck.

If the Eagles reran the pass play that resulted in their second touchdown 100 times, they would likely get one, maybe two touchdowns, in those 100 tries. That is the definition of luck. But, yesterday was one of the times in which they got a TD. It was on a play in which the Redskins’ Shawn Springs did everything right. He covered his man and dislodged the ball. The Eagles running back, Buckhalter, hustled and was in the right place at the right time, picking the fumbled ball off in the air in full stride for a TD. Total point swing: 7.

The Redskins did everything right on their option pass to Chris Cooley. Cooley was wide open. The Eagles bit on the handoff to Randle-El and Randle-El was ready to make a perfect throw. An Eagles player, out of desperation, dove at Randle-El’s heels and barely tripped him; Randle-El hesitated a split second to get his balance. In that split second, Dawkins was able to close ten yards and deflect a sure touchdown pass to Cooley. Total point swing: 14.

The Redskins made a great stop near the goal line in the second half and forced a fumble which they recovered at their two-yard line. But, the refs said the player was down by contact. Gibbs immediately challenged the play and replays showed he was right. The ball came loose way before the Eagles player was touched. The announcers saw what I and the rest of the viewing audience saw and said that it WAS a fumble and it would be the Redskins ball. Someway, somehow, the refs didn’t see it on the replay. The Redskins did a great job on a goal line stand there, but the Eagles still got a field goal. Total point swing: 17.

Now, I know what you’re thinking: “They lost by twenty-four so what are you complaining about?” Well, yes, but if the game was as close as it should have been Brunnell wouldn’t throw that desperation pass that was picked off and returned for a touchdown in the second half. And, the game was much closer than the score. The Redskins controlled the ball for 20:00 minutes in the first half to the Eagles 10:00. The Skins were running all over the Eagles. They gained 4.7 yards per carry even without Portis who broke his hand early in the game.

So, this was a fitting end to the Redskins playoff run. The poor luck that kept their best players out of most of their games this year finished them against the Eagles who made some of the luckiest plays and got some of the luckiest calls you’ll see in a long time. I know good teams make their own luck in games, but that has nothing to do with injuries.

Redskins’ detractors are very happy today. I’m not sure why most of the media hates the Redskins, but they love to rip them, especially in the New York area. The sarcasm drips and schadenfreude smirks in nearly every column. Here’s an example from Paul Needell in today’s Newark Star Ledger:

Washington’s 3-6, clearly the worst team in the NFC East. It’s time for Joe Gibbs to leave whoever his eventual successor is with a chance to see what Jason Campbell’s got, don’t you think?

Giants’ fans like Needell would love to see Gibbs leave because his Redskins teams seem to often go a little farther than the Giants—like last year for instance. But, Gibbs made a five-year commitment and it would take something extraordinary for him to leave now, especially when the Redskins are coming off of a deep playoff run last year and they have improved on both sides of the ball and special teams this year. Injuries sometimes come in waves, but the odds are pretty good that it won’t be repeated next year. Gibbs knows that and will likely stick around until their next championship run.

The Giants, on the other hand, have been pretty lucky until recently. Last night the nation saw how good the Giants are when they finally get hit with a few injuries. Whew. That was pretty ugly. I don’t know who is going to win the NFC East this year, but I don’t think it will be the Giants.

Witten = Fool

2006-11-08T18:03:00.000-05:00

I could read this stuff all day.

Also, check out Drew Bledsoe's Blog.

From Daydreaming Tight Ends to Sleepy-headed Receivers, It's a Cowboys Nightmare

By Les Carpenter
Monday, November 6, 2006; E16

With the electricity of a big catch still tingling in his arms, Dallas Cowboys tight end Jason Witten stood on the line of scrimmage chattering with glee as his teammate Mike Vanderjagt prepared to kick the field goal that would win yesterday's game. He was still laughing about safety Adam Archuleta, the unfortunate Redskin who had been too late covering him on the play before. Oh, how foolish he had made that Archuleta look. How funny it all was.

"He was just talking, sharing his thoughts about Adam," recalled Washington's Troy Vincent, who had been standing across the line, just inches away. "He was still talking about the catch. He was happy. They had won. All they had to do was kick it."

Yes, indeed, Witten must have been having a ball as he fell into his stance. So good a time, in fact, he probably never saw the white blur that sped past him the moment the ball was snapped.

"I know one thing," Vincent said, "I was full speed ahead."

Later, after Vincent blocked Vanderjagt's kick, setting in motion an unimaginable chain of events that led to Washington's 22-19 victory, the Cowboys slumped in their tiny locker room, weary and disoriented. How could something so clear as the win they knew was theirs have dissolved before them? Vanderjagt stood by his locker and shrugged.

"If they block it at the line of scrimmage you can point the finger at me," he said. "But he was two feet in front of me. I don't know how [Vincent] got where he got. We'll have to look at the tape and see."

Clearly, today the ugly finger of blame will land on the chest of Witten, who must still be wondering how he went from making the catch that all but sealed victory to the fool of the season.

Redskins 22 – Cowboys 19 / Hallelujah!

2006-11-06T18:29:00.000-05:00

Some may argue that Divine intervention gave the Redskins a victory yesterday. If so, it is because they deserved it. The Cowboys were penalized eleven times for 153 yards yesterday, but it was a fellow from a hotter place that prevented it from being fifteen penalties for over 200 yards. And, wouldn’t you know it; on two of the Cowboys' drives in which they committed penalties but weren't called for it, Dallas scored a total of thirteen points. The Redskins victory yesterday would have been a cakewalk if those penalties were called.

But, the Hallelujah today has less to do with that Divine intervention. Today’s Hallelujah is mostly given because, for the first time all season, the Redskins had all eleven of their defensive starters on the field. Hallelujah for the bye week. (By the way, I had this Hallelujah theme written even before I heard WFAN this morning where Warner Wolf replayed the Redskins radio announcers Larry Michaels and Sonny Jurgenson’s call. Soon after Michaels yelled “It’s Gooooooooood!, Sonny gave a big “Hallelujah.”)

I wrote on 10/25 that the Redskins offense has yet to fire on all cylinders and use all of their new weapons effectively, yet it is still scoring slightly more than it did last season. It has been the defense that has been disappointing this year. Yesterday, despite the high yardage allowed, the Redskins showed why they need all eleven defensive starters. The five or six that played against the Colts aren’t enough. And, yesterday’s yardage and points allowed would have been a lot less if flags were thrown on all of Dallas’s penalties.

So, which uncalled penalties were the most detrimental? The Cowboys first touchdown should have been called back. Cowboys’ tight end Witten mauled defensive end Wynn right in front of the Refs. How they missed that call, I’ll never know. Former Cowboy Troy Aikman announced the game and was laughing that the refs missed the holding penalty because, as Aikman pointed out in a replay, even Witten was surprised that they didn’t throw the flag. His head was on a swivel looking everywhere for yellow laundry. When he couldn’t find any, he jumped for joy.

On Dallas’s second touchdown drive yesterday, Romo hit Crayton down the right sideline for a 48-yard gain on third-and-two from Dallas’s 33-yard line. It was Dallas’s biggest play of the game and the biggest play of the drive. It gave the Cowboys a first down at the Redskins nineteen-yard line. When Romo threw it, I though Shawn Springs was going to intercept. He had Crayton covered as well as anyone could be legally covered in the NFL. But, somehow in his last stride, Crayton got separation. A replay showed why. At the last second, Crayton pushed Springs away from him. The replay view and the referee’s view of the play were from the same angle except the referee was only ten-yards away from the players. At worst it should have been an incomplete pass and Dallas would have had to punt. At best it should have been the Redskins ball. And, in between it should have been a Dallas penalty for pushing off. Instead Dallas got the ball at the nineteen yard line and scored the go-ahead touchdown a few plays later.

On the Redskins penultimate possession, Antwaan Randle-El fielded a punt with 3:52 left in the game. He broke it up the middle through a huge hole; all of the Cowboys were blocked. The only person between Randle-El and the goal line was the punter and he was about fifteen-yards away and in no position to make a tackle. Randle-El was gone. That is until a Cowboys special teamer, who was beaten badly, reached back with his leg and tripped him. Of course, that is a penalty, and yes it went uncalled. The Redskins wouldn’t have needed a miracle ending to win the game if the Cowboys didn’t cheat there.

By the way, except for the push off, all these non-calls were pointed out by Troy Aikman on the broadcast. In fact, he pointed out three other calls that went against the Redskins that he thought were bogus:

1. A roughing the passer call on Taylor for a low hit that wasn't low;

2. Another non-call for blatant holding that the Cowboys got away with; and

3. A holding call against the Redskins' Christian Fauria that negated a huge play, an acrobatic catch by Lloyd, that would have given the Redskins a first down in field goal range. Replays showed that Fauria didn't hold and the drive ended without points;

Aikman didn't point out any bad calls that went in favor of the Redskins. I think the refs stopped throwing the flag against the Cowboys because their arms were tired; the Cowboys wore them out. Maybe that’s in the Cowboys game plan.

Redskins Heroes
Thrash for some big catches
Vincent for the blocked field goal and locker room leadership (every player and coach interviewed after the game mentioned his speeches over the bye week)
Brunnell for some very good Quarterbacking
Cooley for big catches (But he couldn’t start for Parcells)
Taylor for the return of the blocked field goal
Novak for redemption
Brandon Lloyd for the great block that sprung Portis on his TD run and some fine receiving
Bubba Tyer for getting the defense healthy

Mike and the Mad Dog
I have always assumed that Mike Francesca of WFAN’s Mike and the Mad Dog show was a Giants fan. I know he’s a Yankees fan. But, I just caught the tail end of a segment in which he is downright heartbroken at what Terrell Owens is doing to Parcells and the Cowboys. Maybe he’s just a Parcells fan because Parcells was once coach of the Giants. He’s very good at digging the knife in an open wound (ask any Mets fan), so this is his due.

In the segment, Mad Dog dismissively said the face mask penalty on Taylor’s return of the blocked field goal was a bad call, as if that was accepted wisdom. He thought it should have been five yards instead of fifteen. I can only refer the reader to this post, which is all of the visual evidence you need to make an informed decision.

The post also lists the NFL's facemask rules, which say if the player's helmet twists when a player grabs his facemask, it is a 15-yard penalty; no questions, no debate. Intent has nothing to do with it. Time spent holding the facemask has nothing to do with it. The only thing that matters is: Did the guy grab the face mask? And, if he did, did the helmet twist his head around? You be the judge.

The Redskins are alive for at least one more week. They still get to play all of the teams that are ahead of them in the playoff hunt. Their fate is in their hands. The Cowboys didn't get away with it. Hallelujah!

Giants Win the Super Bowl in October / Bye Week / Turning It Around

2006-10-25T14:02:00.000-04:00

One of the many reasons I live is to see the day when pompous asses like Mike Garafolo of the Newark Star Ledger eat crow.

Giants fans in the New York area such as Garafolo are already celebrating a Giants Super Bowl victory this year. In a column published today that nearly spans the entire front page, Garafolo ticked off the Giants wins and losses over their remaining ten games, and he has them running away with the division at 12 - 4, locking up the second seed, and earning a first-round bye. Yet, he only confers the second seed upon the anointed Giants despite the fact that he says they will beat the Bears in November. No worry, he says, because if one thing has been made clear,

it's that you can go to Chicago in January and win.

And, here is what he had to say about the last game on the Giants schedule, the one against the Redskins on December 30:

If only Washington were still in it. What a treat this game would have been. Instead, the only fun Giants fans will have is watching Jason Campbell run for his life. Prediction: (Giants) Win.

Now, I'd like to make a little prediction: Giants fans have gotten WAY ahead of themselves; they will need a lot of luck just to win the division.

Garafolo thinks the Giants will beat the Bucs, Bears, Cowboys, Eagles, Saints, and Redskins--that's six wins in tough games--in addition to wins against the Titans and Texans. Of the six wins against tough opponents that the omniscient Garafolo has conferred upon the Giants, I think the Giants will need an enormous amount of luck just to go 4 - 2. I'm talking humongous luck...luck like the kind they found in Philadelphia this year, but which is unlikely to be repeated. And, if those two losses come against the wrong teams--say the Redskins, Eagles or Cowboys--the Giants may not even win their division. In fact, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Giants lost three of those six games and fell one game short of the division title.

It will likely only take ten wins to win the NFC East this year, and it is still anyone's division when only two wins separate the top of the division from the bottom and there are ten weeks of football left to play.

What is it going to take for the Redskins to step up and take the division? In a word, health. They need to get their defensive starters back—all of them. You can’t have six starters out for some part of the year and expect to do well. Redskins fans are wailing about the lack of offense and calling for Brunnell’s head, but the offense has actually been about as productive this year as last year despite not yet fully absorbing Saunders playbook and missing Portis for most of two games. And, Brunnell actually has a higher passer rating and is ranked higher in the NFC this year. Through seven games, the Redskins have actually scored five more points this year compared with last year and that comparison is made tougher when one considers that the 2005 stats include a game against a horrible 49ers team in which the Redskins scored fifty-two points.

No, the culprit for their poor start has been their defense and that is only because of the inordinate number of injuries they have had on that side of the ball. Here are the statistics from the Washington Post:

After seven games last year, the Redskins were sixth overall in total defense, giving up 283.1 yards per game. This year, they are 26th, at 350.1 yards per contest. In two of the last three games, the Redskins have given up more than 400 yards…After seven games in 2005, the Redskins were first in pass defense at 152.7 yards per game. This year, the defense gives up an average of 239.4 passing yards per game, good for 29th of 32 teams.

So, the Redskins find themselves in the middle of a 2 – 5 streak. Fans should remember that last year they had a 2 – 6 streak and still won ten games, made the playoffs, and were one play away from playing in Joe Gibbs’s sixth NFC championship game in fourteen years of coaching. Wow. And, remember, the Giants were watching that Redskins playoff game on TV at home.

Fans should also try to remember how they felt at the end of that 2 - 6 streak last year when they lost to the Chargers. Talk show host were calling into shows they weren't even hosting and screaming about the loss to the Chargers and saying the Skins were dead. Nearly everyone on ExtremSkins.com posted that the Redskins were dead. Washington Post writers said the Skins were dead. Post columnists like Sally Jenkins said that only delusional fans who named their pets after Skins players still believed the Redskins could make the playoffs. Oh, and then she conferred a deep playoff run on the Giants. Oops. It is no different this year.

Fans who now wail about this year’s home loss to the terrible Titans, and who use that loss as evidence that the Redskins cannot win the division this year, should try to remember last year’s home loss to the awful Raiders that came in the middle of that 2 – 6 streak. Fans who think that this year’s offense is terrible compared with last year’s should try to understand that this year's offense has scored more points than last year's and it still hasn’t come close to fully utilizing all of its weapons.

Finally, another reason for optimism is that the Redskins have made major upgrades at special teams and have already scored a touchdown on punt and kickoff returns. Special teams win in January. The only thing that is worse off this year is the defense.

Will this week’s bye help them heal enough for a playoff run? The Giants credit their recent success on having an early bye week to heal and fix their problems. I think Redskins fans will be saying the same thing about the Redskins in about a month. What will Garafolo say then? Probably something similar to what Sally Jenkins said after the Redskins won their tenth game last year and secured a playoff spot:

We could all take a lesson from Brunell. And we could all take a lesson from the Redskins' ability to rebuild themselves in the span of a mere month. Like Brunell, they stowed their complaints, and erased their mistakes. The things they previously did wrong, they suddenly did right...They weren't sentenced to failure. Just because you make a mistake once doesn't mean you have to make it twice. I made a mistake of my own when I wrote five weeks ago that the Redskins were done for the season. They weren't, not by a long shot. For one thing, I didn't take into account the deep competitive nature of their quarterback.

Colts 36 - Redskins 22

2006-10-23T11:47:00.000-04:00

The Redskins put their second-team and sometimes third-team defense on the field yesterday and still managed to go into the locker room with a half-time lead. I have no idea how they did it. But, time is not kind to battered teams and the Colts destroyed the Redskins in the third quarter 20 – 0 and that was the difference in the game.

The following defensive starters did not play yesterday:
Lemar Marshall: Middle linebacker and signal caller
Cornelius Griffin: Last year’s defensive MVP
Carlos Rogers: Cornerback who covered #1 wide outs while Springs was hurt

The following players left the game with injuries:
Golston: Defensive Tackle filling in for Salave’a
Shawn Springs: Cornerback got his first start this year but left in the fourth quarter

The following played with injuries:
Springs: Cornerback
Joe Salave’a: a starting DT was injured and not expected to play but filled in for Golston

So, six of the eleven players on the starting defense either did not play, played when they weren’t supposed to, or were hurt and missed the remaining time in the game. How the hell are they supposed to stop a high-powered offense on the road, in a dome with those kinds of injuries, especially when they were down to their third string at DT? The bye week couldn’t have come at a better time. Let’s hope it’s not too late when they return.

The 2006 Mets: It Was an Above-Average and Disappointing Run

2006-10-20T15:58:00.000-04:00

If you had told me in June that the Mets would play in the National League Championship Series and that four of the seven games would be started by two guys name John Maine and Oliver Perez, my first question would have been: “Who?”

Then, I would have asked: “And, it went seven games?”

Fred Wilpon and Son’s Lamborghini
Over the past two years, the Wilpons—majority owners of the New York Mets—bought an expensive Lamborghini to race around Shea Stadium. They bought a shiny piece of precision engineering and power to show off to their fans. They collected a ton of money from their fans to let them look at it—from ticket and concession sales and from advertising sales from the television station that they own which broadcasts Mets games. Then, after looking at the sticker price of this race car, they thought it would be a good idea to fill it with low-octane gas to save a few bucks. And, of course, the expensive machine sputtered.

I have few problems with the way Willie Randolph managed this series. I heard the WFAN callers over the past two weeks and I thought some had good criticism and others were ridiculous, but Willie didn’t lose the series for the Mets; Fred Wilpon and Son did, and they have no excuses. After buying the Lamborghini, they spit the bit. They could have had Kris Benson to pitch in two of these games. They could have had Mike Cameron tracking down all of those RBI hits that were just out of reach for Shawn Green. But, they went with low-octane fuel to save chump change.

There should be no doubt that Mike Cameron would have caught Spiezio’s triple that drove in the Cardinals’ go ahead runs in the seventh inning of game two. If Green got there in plenty of time to make the catch, Cameron would have been standing under it and waiting for it to come down. It hit off of the back of Green’s glove because he over-extended for it and the game was lost.

There should be no doubt that Cameron would have caught Spiezio’s pop fly to right that scored the first two runs of game three. The ball bounced off of Green’s chest after he got a bad jump, looped around, and dove for it. Had Cameron been there, Trachsel’s day probably would have ended a lot differently. The Mets still didn’t hit that day against Suppan, but the game would have been close enough to steal.

And, despite how well the two rookies pitched in games six and seven, there should be no doubt that the team would have been much better off with Kris Benson pitching in two of these games. It is almost unfair of the Mets to have asked these two rookies to win this series for them. It's like getting your teenage sons drunk and tossing them the keys to the sports car.

Finally, I have to dispel one thing that I have repeatedly heard about the Benson trade. Talk show hosts and others keep saying that the trade brought in two guys who eventually made the Mets rotation. That is absurd. Although John Maine came directly in the trade, the fact that Jorge Julio, who also came in the trade, was eventually traded for Orlando Hernandez should not be factored in to the evaluation of the Benson trade. Hernandez could have been had for a box of chocolates, that’s how desperate the Diamondbacks were to get rid of him and his salary. At their next board meeting, the Diamondbacks would have passed around that box and snickered with caramel on their teeth at how they had just taken the Mets to the cleaners.

And, we could play this six-degrees-of-separation game all day. Why don’t we trace back how the Marv Throneberry deal eventually led to the Delgado trade?

Willie Randolph
Back to Willie: The only thing I would fault Randolph for were his underutilization of Steve Trachsel and one pitching decision that actually worked.

I’ll start with the latter. In game five, Tony LaRussa brought in Chris Duncan, a left handed batter to pinch hit against Pedro Feliciano, a left handed pitcher. All of the statistics said that LaRussa made a dumb move. Duncan was horrible against lefties this year and great against righthanders. Duncan hit twenty of his twenty-two home runs against righties. He hit 0.315 against righties in the regular season and only 0.158 against lefties. And, Feliciano has a nasty sweeping curve ball that is very tough on left handed hitters. Of course, LaRussa looked like a genius because Duncan hit a home run off of Feliciano. The next day, Willie had the opportunity to bring in Feliciano to pitch to Duncan, who was pinch hitting. You have to play the percentages there and bring in the lefty, but Willie stuck with the righty, Guillermo Mota. Of course, Willie looked like a genius because Duncan hit into a double play. But, Willie got lucky. Duncan crushed the ball. Willie was lucky that Duncan hit it right at the second baseman.

It is anathema among Mets fans to defend Steve Trachsel after he was hurt in his only appearance in the NLCS, but he deserves defending. Mike Francesca and Chris Russo, Yankee and Giants fans, respectively, love to rip Trachsel because he took himself out. They think he was a deer in headlights. But, if he didn’t get hurt he would have competed. You don’t win as many games as he did in five years with some lean teams without having the ability to compete. He joined the Mets in 2001 and led the Mets in wins in 2001, 2003, 2004, and 2006. That’s 2006, Mets fans, THIS YEAR. In 2002, he was third on the Mets in wins, just two wins shy of the team leader. In 2005 he was hurt and missed most of the season.

Do I love Trachsel? Do I think he was the best pitcher on the team? Do I want them to resign Trachsel? Absolutely not. But, he was their most effective pitcher in five years. You have to dance with the date you brought. Willie let his dislike for Trachsel get in the way of the best baseball decision.

Now, I’ll briefly list some things Willies did right, but I will omit many because there are a lot. WFAN callers are second-guessing him right now, but Willie didn’t lose this series. Sticking with Heilman in the ninth was the right call. Who knew how many innings this game was going to go. He needed to keep Heilman in not just to burn innings, but to compete, which he did very well all year. Dance with the date you brought. With a lead, he would have brought in Wagner to shut the door.

Not bunting in the ninth with runners on first and second and no outs was the right thing to do. I was nervous that Floyd was up because he couldn’t run and a ground ball was a sure double play, but I didn’t want to see them give up an out there. Reyes’s line drive after Floyd’s at bat was too shallow to score Valentin from third base anyway. There is no way Manny Acta would have sent Valentin home with two outs and LoDuca and Beltran coming up next. So, the Floyd strikeout was the next best outcome besides a hit or walk, and the pitch that Wainwright threw to strikeout Floyd was downright nasty. There isn’t a hitter in baseball that could do anything with that pitch.

Short of getting the win, the Mets gave us all we could have asked for in the bottom of the ninth inning. We had our best hitter at the plate with three quick runners on the bases. A single would have tied the game. An extra base hit would have won it. The only disappointing thing about that at bat was Beltran let the first pitch, a fastball that caught a lot of the plate, go by without swinging. If he saw the hook that Wainwright threw to Floyd, he should have looked for a fastball to hit because that curve was unhittable. After he got two strikes on him, Wainwright threw the hook and Beltran could only watch it.

Omar Minaya
Omar Minaya did a pretty good job putting this team together. His best moves were dichotomous: They were the super-sized ones and the moves that went unnoticed when he made them. Super-sized moves were signing Beltran and Martinez and trading for Delgado. The unnoticed moves include bringing in Endy Chavez and Jose Valentin to bolster the bench—but who won starting jobs—and stocking the bullpen with Chad Bradford, Pedro Feliciano, Darren Oliver, and Guillermo Mota.

The Catch
Speaking of Endy Chavez, I cannot say enough about the catch that he made last night. As I write this, Mike and the Mad Dog are playing the St. Louis radio announcer’s call of that play. The announcer said exactly what I said at the time: That was one of the greatest plays ever made in Major League Baseball post season history. I don't know how they lost after that.

The 2007 Mets and Beyond
The best things about the Mets right now are the young and talented Beltran, Reyes and Wright. Minaya did a good job signing them to long term contracts. Next is their terrific bullpen, especially their middle relief and setup men, which they have to keep together. Then, they have excellent young, but unproven starters in Pelfry, Maine, Bannister, Perez, and Humber. It is highly likely that one or two of them will develop into high-quality back of the rotation starters next year, but Mets fans shouldn’t expect much more than that.

Endy Chavez and Jose Valentin are terrific defensive players. They are terrific pinch hitters and Endy is a terrific pinch runner. They are terrific spot starters. But, the Mets cannot expect to win a championship if they are everyday players. Shawn Green is a great guy in the clubhouse. He can still hit and would make a great DH in the American League. But the Mets cannot expect to win a championship if he is roaming rightfield every day. If he caught that ball in game two, the Mets would be going to Detroit right now. They had their foot on the Cardinals’ necks and let them go.

Pedro Martinez is done. And so the Mets are missing a very important piece that all championship teams need: A true number one starter that can shut down an offensive powerhouse in two starts in a seven game series plus potentially pitch a few innings in a third game. Tom Glavine will likely want to finish his career and get his 300th win in Atlanta. I’d like him back, but he probably won’t come back because the Mets have to pay him $5 million no matter what and his family is in Atlanta where the Braves are likely to give him another $7 million. Orlando Hernandez turns 62 next year. Willie is ready to kick Trachsel to the curb. So, next year’s starting rotation is almost completely unknown right now.

Cliff Floyd is done. He’s a great guy and David Wright is going to miss him, but he only gave the Mets one healthy year. Paul LoDuca is a fiery competitor. If Piazza had LoDuca’s fire, Piazza would have taken the jagged edge of the bat that Clemens threw at him in the 2000 World Series, jammed it in Clemens’s chest, and the Mets would have won the 2000 World Series. But, Fire is not enough. LoDuca is old for a catcher. It didn’t show this year, but it is bound to catch up to him soon.

So, if pitching wins championships, barring a miracle, the Mets will be in trouble next year too. And, besides pitching, which every team wants, the Mets have holes. They need two starting corner outfielders, a starting second baseman and maybe another quality catcher. Fred Wilpon and Son are going to have to go out and almost completely overhaul the Lamborghini. Are they going to pay top-dollar for Schmidt and Zito? Are they going to pay top-dollar for Soriano for second base, and someone like Gary Matthews Jr. and move him to right? Will they trade some of their young starters for Dontrelle Willis? Given what they did this year, spitting the bit on Cameron and Benson’s pay when the team was built to win this year, it is unlikely. Yet, almost all of those moves would have to be made to ensure a championship, something that has eluded the Wilpons for over twenty years. Pathetic.

The Mets were incorporated the year I was born. I was born within sight of where Shea is currently located. I have been a Mets fan since I was a sports fan and it pains me to see this year’s opportunity slip away. They had the Lamborghini and it was ready to win this year, but Wilpon and Son filled it with 85-octane and blew it.

Sally Jenkins on Marvin Harrison

2006-10-18T18:57:00.000-04:00

The Redskins play the Colts this weekend, so the Washington Post sent Giants fan and Post columnist Sally Jenkins to Indianapolis to interview Marvin Harrison and write a piece on him.

It was a wonderful column. She wrote about his overarching shyness; his refusal to celebrate flamboyantly—or at all—for doing his job. She wrote about his diligence and hard work to become the best receiver that he could. She compared him with other receivers who had an almost pathological need for attention. She then showed how Harrison put up better numbers than they did and would probably retire as the best receiver of all time and would certainly be in the Hall of Fame.

In short, Sally Jenkins could have written this piece ten years ago, replaced the name “Marvin Harrison” with “Art Monk” and she would not have had to change one thing about the characterization or accomplishments of Art Monk, only his supporting cast. Art Monk grew up in a different time with different parents, teachers, coaches and other people around him, but everything else she wrote about Harrison was true for Monk.

Monk did what no other receivers did before him in the NFL. He had the most catches in a season (in fact he was the first NFL player to break 100), most catches in a career, and most consecutive games with a catch. These are records that Harrison now owns or will own shortly. There are only three things that Harrison has not done yet that Monk has; Monk has three Super Bowl rings to Harrison’s zero.

Monk also refused to talk. He refused to celebrate. He went about his business and worked diligently to be the best. He was also a great teammate and solid citizen.

Now, you would think that with so many comparisons to Monk being true, that a sportswriter for the WASHINGTON Post would have written the name Art Monk at least once in her piece, wouldn’t you? Well, she didn’t. And, since sportswriters are the ones who elect players into the NFL Hall of Fame, Art Monk continues to be ignored and continues to be refused a spot in Canton. Will Marvin Harrison suffer Monk’s injustice? Will he be left out while he watches Terrell Owens get elected?

Simon & Garfunkel Knew This was Coming in 1967

2006-10-18T00:27:00.000-04:00

Sung to Simon & Garfunkel’s "Mrs. Robinson."

Dee Dee Dee Dee Dee Dee Dee Dee Dee Dee Dee Dee Dee
Doo Doo Doo Doo Doo Doo Doo Doo Doo
Dee Dee Dee Dee Dee Dee Dee Dee Dee Dee Dee Dee Dee…

…Sitting on a sofa on a Tuesday eve-a-ning
Watching the Cardinals’ West Gate
Laugh about it, shout about it
When Fred’s got to choose
Every way you look at this we lose

Where have you gone Michael Cameron,
We Mets fans turn our lonely eyes to you
Woo Woo Woo
What's that you say, Mrs. Robinson
Motorin' Mike was sent by Fred away,
Hey hey hey. So long Shea…

Two things I never want to see again:

1. Shawn Green plodding after playable balls while a) they roll past him, b) bounce off the back of his glove (see picture below), or c) bounce in front of him and off of his chest, as Cardinals circle the bases in close games against the Mets;

2. Jeff Kellogg, the home plate umpire in tonight’s game;

I know Shawn Green is trying, I really do. I don’t want to unfairly pick on him because this pending NLCS collapse by the Mets is really not his fault. This series was lost last winter when Fred Wilpon and Son realized that Mike Cameron’s contract was going to reduce their free cash flow from somewhere near $200 million this year to about $193 million; when they found his paycheck unbearable and incorrectly decided that they didn’t need him to win the pennant.

And, seriously, didn’t it seem that everything was called a ball tonight—for both teams—while Glavine was still in the game, and then around the fifth inning when Glavine was done, everything was called a strike--again for both teams? Wasn't Pujols struck out on the pitch before he hit his home run?

And could Joe Buck please do a little better job hiding his glee at all of this?

Well, if the Wilpons don’t like Simon & Garfunkel’s “Mrs. Robinson,” they can always listen to the Sound of Silence starting next week at Shea.

Never Right

2006-10-16T12:27:00.000-04:00

No, this isn't a post about Joe Gibbs or Mark Brunnell in case you wandered over here from ExtremeSkins.com.

My birthday was sandwiched by Redskins’ losses to the Giants and Titans. Okay, the Giants game was on the road against a tough division foe, so that was not unexpected. The disappointing thing about the Giants game was that the Redskins offense didn’t show up after it raised my expectations the week before by dismantling one of the top defenses in the NFL. But, lose to the Titans at home? Come on.

It took us four and a half hours to get from FedEx Field to NJ after the game last night because of traffic, so I had to listen to the first four innings of the Mets game on the radio. Readers know I am very nervous about this Mets team. I was at Shea for the very disappointing loss to the Cardinals on Friday night. Then, they lost on Saturday to go down 2 – 1 in the series with the prospect of Oliver Perez pitching game four. After a Redskins loss to the Titans, that was almost unbearable. But, that was a great win last night. Do you think Carlos Delgado is making the most of his first playoff appearance in his thirteen year career?

And, once again, Beltran has come through for this team. Considering that a year has gone by and he still has not forgiven Mets fans for the way they treated him last year (no curtain calls, etc.) it is unlikely that he will ever embrace them. That’s too bad. It affects his play at home. Let’s just hope he improves on his major-league-low home batting average next year. If he improves just a little, he’ll win the MVP award.

But, back to the Redskins, can someone please help me understand this team? Last week the offense didn’t show up after destroying the Jaguars’ top-ranked defense the week before. This week the defense and special teams didn’t show up after performing well against the Giants. Which unit will fail to show up next week?

Look, there are injuries on defense, I know. Shawn Springs made his first appearance of the season yesterday and got on the field for about five uneventful plays. And, on the day he came back neither of their starting defensive tackles, Cornelius Griffin and Joe Salave'a, played due to injuries. Readers know that I think Griffin was the Redskins defensive MVP last year, so he is a big loss. The Titans took full advantage of it and ran right down the Redskins throat. Vince Young handed off thirty-two times to Travis Henry who ran through the A and B gaps that defensive tackles normally defend. Henry had his best rushing game as a pro with 178 yards. But, the Redskins should have enough depth on the defensive line to stop a winless football team from running right through them.

It looked like the Redskins looked past the Titans to the upcoming game against the Colts. They easily jumped out to a huge 11-point lead in the first 15:05 minutes of the game and then stopped playing. Then, they frantically came back in the fourth quarter in a drive that took three plays and 1:15 to score a touchdown and a two-point conversion to tie the game. But, because they did not kill the severely wounded Titans when they had the chance, it allowed one bad play—a poor Redskins punt—to lead to the Titans winning field goal with 5:11 left in the game.

And, I hear what the coaches are saying about how they are one or two plays per game from a 5 -1 or 4 – 2 record. But, when are they going to make those plays? Early in the game against the Giants, Carlos Rogers dropped an Eli Manning pass that hit him right in the hands at mid-field. It was reminiscent of his drop against the Seahawks in the NFC division playoffs, except in the latter case it was a sure touchdown and a likely trip to the NFC championship game. Against the Giants, it would have given the Skins great field position early and who knows? Yesterday, early in the game, Marcus Washington dropped a Vince Young pass that hit him right in the hands at mid-field. There were two Titans fumbles that they had a chance to recover and didn’t. They have to start making those plays.

If the Redskins beat the Colts next week, they will be back on the pace that I predicted at the beginning of the season. But, the Colts are undefeated, playing at home in the dome, and are coming off of a bye week. This, by the way (bye the way?), is the second time in three weeks the Redskins are playing a team coming off of a bye. The Redskins are already a ten-point underdog and that spread should widen. A loss to the Colts would mean the Redskins would likely have to run the table to win the NFC East because it is probably going to take eleven wins to accomplish that. Certainly at this point, they have to run the table in their four remaining games against NFC East opponents, but three of those four games are at FedEx, so that is not as much of a stretch.

I expected the Skins to be 3 – 4 heading into their bye and they can still get there with a win over the Colts. I expected the Skins to be much better in the second half of the season than the first. But, I didn’t expect the Skins to overlook the Titans.

I expected the Mets to beat the Cardinals, but I didn’t expect them to blow a three-run lead on Friday. I didn’t expect guys named Perez and Maine to make two and maybe even four starts in a seven game series. The only hope I foresaw last night was that the Cardinals pitcher was no better than the Mets’ Perez. I’m worried about 40-year old Glavine pitching on only three-days of rest. I guess if the Mets win tonight and Glavine pitches well, I’ll have a near-perfect record of predicting everything wrong in the past ten days, which bodes well for the Redskins in the Colts game.

If a Higher Authority had given me a choice between a Mets or Redskins win yesterday, I would have chosen the Mets because their season would have been essentially over with a loss. The Redskins season is still very much alive despite their loss, despite what many of their fans think today.

Good Night Irene

2006-10-15T00:14:00.000-04:00

As I said in August, the Mets are in trouble. They are now down 2 – 1 in the NLCS, but it didn’t have to be this way. It would have been nice to have a healthy Kris Benson for these playoffs, but the Wilpons are less interested in championships than cash flow, and so we have John Maine. Maine may one day be a very good pitcher, but not today. It would have been nice to have Mike Cameron in the outfield to track down all of those RBI hits in this series that were about six-inches out of reach for Shawn Green, but the Wilpons cared more about profits than winning and sent Cameron packing.

It’s not enough to have their own cable station to broadcast Mets games and generate a ton of cash for the Wilpons. The Wilpons also want New York City pay for a large part of their new stadium. That new stadium will surely bring in gullible fans like me and give the Wilpons even less incentive to assemble a quality team. What’s that you say? The Mets have the sixth biggest payroll in baseball so what am I complaining about? That may be true, but relative to their cash flow that payroll is a mere pittance. Now, I am a professional investor, so I cannot blame the Wilpons for wanting to generate free cash flow and become rich off of it. I just wish they wouldn’t insult their fan base’s intelligence by pretending that they are doing everything they can to win a championship. They are not.

Sooner or later, though, someone will have to answer for the lack of a championship; I'll bet the Wilpons do a good job at pointing the finger elsewhere, and since the Mets are their toy, they get to keep it. But, in the almost-thirty years that the Wilpon family has owned a major stake in the Mets they have won only one championship and much of the credit for that should go to former co-owner Nelson Doubleday.

It was Doubleday who insisted on bringing in GM Frank Cashen--Baltimore's former GM--and giving him free reign, and it was Cashen who rebuilt the farm system and stockpiled it with pitchers Gooden, Darling, Aguilera and Fernandez and outfielder Strawberry. And, it was Cashen who made the deft trades for Keith Hernandez and Gary Carter that put them over the top. Fred Wilpon was a lucky bystander then and his son Jeff was still in high school. But, since then the Wilpons siezed control of the team and the results have been terrible. This is not Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Milwaukee or Oakland folks, this is New York, and one championship in that time frame is a pathetic record for a major market team.

Two items that I always found interesting about the Wilpons: 1. Nelson Doubleday had to fight tooth and nail to sign Mike Piazza over the Wilpons' objection due to the size of the contract they were going to have to offer to keep Piazza. Piazza was largely responsible for the Mets' last NL pennant in 2000; 2. The Wilpons later forced Nelson Doubleday to sell his stake in the team. That should tell you everything you need to know about the Wilpons. Hey, I'd love to invest with them, but I wish they didn't own my favorite baseball team.

Having said all of that, I’ll look for the silver lining for this series, but it’s tough knowing Oliver Perez is starting for the Mets tonight: Well, the Mets were shut out eight times in 2006 and in games following a shut out they are 4 – 4, so that’s not a silver lining. Uh, I guess the only silver lining is that St. Louis is starting Anthony Reyes, a guy who was 5 – 8 this year with a 5.06 ERA and who only played in twenty-one games in his whole career.

If the Mets do not win tonight, it’s good night Irene.

Mets 6 - Cardinals 9: Can’t Anyone Here Manage this Game?

2006-10-14T18:49:00.000-04:00

I have two bones to pick.

I’m not a Willie Randolph hater. I’m not a huge fan of Willie’s managerial decisions either. I’m not an Omar Minaya hater. And, I’m not a big Omar fan either. I just want my Mets to win a championship. “Is that so wrong?” (1990’s SNL spoof of Harvey Fierstein).

Is there anybody in baseball that believes that John Maine is a better pitcher at this point in his career than Steve Trachsel? Anyone? Then why is Maine starting in game two when Trachsel is available and has his required days rest? Does anyone think that Trachsel would have blown separate leads of 3, 2, 1, and 2 runs? Maine is a virtual rookie who got one start in May thanks to desperation on the part of the Mets and then didn’t pitch again until the Mets got even more desperate in July. Prior to this year, he pitched in eleven major league games and had an ERA of about seven.

This is a classic example of a guy you don’t want to rely on in October. He’s a nice fill in when the division title is already in the bag, but he is not a playoff starter. Ask yourself this: Whom would you rather have on the mound in game six with the Mets down 3 – 2 in the series and facing elimination? Because of Randolph’s decision to go with Maine last night, we’re going to get Maine in game six.

Now, say what you want about Steve Trachsel, but all the guy has done in five uninjured years with the Mets is win: Fifteen wins this year, twelve in 2004 (he was hurt in 2005), sixteen in 2003, and eleven each in 2002 and 2001 and most of those years were pretty lean for the Mets. Steve Trachsel is a veteran who can handle October pressure. He’s no Tom Seaver, but he is much better option than throwing a virtual rookie to the wolves. Tony LaRussa gets this stuff. He moved his best available starter up a game in order to get him in as early as possible.

Point two: Shawn Green went back to catch Spiezio’s fly ball within forty feet of my seats last night (145A seats 1 and 2). My friend and I each turned to each other and immediately said the same thing: He should have caught that ball. If he had, game over, the Mets win. I know it wasn’t an easy play, but major league players make that catch. He got there. When a major league player gets to the ball he’s supposed to catch it. Green actually overextended for that ball and it hit the back of his glove. Does anyone think that Mike Cameron would have missed it? Thank you Omar (or Fred).

Tonight is a must-win game with Trachsel on the mound because tomorrow night they’re throwing Oliver Perez who was 3 -13 this year with an ERA over 6.50.

Spahn and Sain and Pray for Rain

2006-10-09T13:16:00.000-04:00

In the late 1940s the Boston Braves had two dominating pitchers: Hall of Famer Warren Spahn and three-time 20-game winner Johnny Sain. Their lack of other pitchers of their equal led Gerald V. Hern to write the following poem:

Published: Boston Post (09-14-1948)

First we'll use Spahn
then we'll use Sain
Then an off day
followed by rain
Back will come Spahn
followed by Sain
And followed
we hope
by two days of rain

which has since been truncated to "Spahn and Sain and Pray for Rain."

Right now, the Mets could use a poem. I'll throw out a few and will publish other good suggestions:

1. Glavine and Trachsel and two days of Praxil
2. Tom and Steve and then a Reprieve
3. Steve and Tom and a thunder storm (weak I know)
4. Tommy and Stevey and Beg for Jake Peavy

Please write in.

UGH! Giants 19 Redskins 3

2006-10-08T23:47:00.000-04:00

Some of you noticed that I predicted a Redskins win in a post written today, but in the season-long preview written a few weeks ago, I had predicted a loss for the Skins in the meadowlands.

In fact, two weeks ago I had predicted that the Redskins would lose today but that prediction was made before the Redskins first win. The prediction of a win today was made after the Redskins figured out Saunders playbook (or so I thought) and racked up almost 500-yards against an excellent Jaguars defense, the same defense that shut out a pretty good Jets team today.

So here we are, and the Redskins offense is Jekyll and Hyde. One week the Redskins O-line shuts down one of the best D-lines in football, and the next they give up three sacks to an average D-line. One week Mark Brunell has all day to throw, and the next he barely has time to set his feet.

Notice I place all of the blame for today's loss on the Redskins offense. The Giants have a very good offense and any time a team's defense holds them to nineteen points, they should win the game. The fact that the Redskins O could not get any points today is the reason for the loss. (Update: After reading the box score this morning I realized that the failures of the Redskins offense forced their defense to stay on the field for almost 35 minutes in the game including over 20 minutes in the second half. It is a miracle that the Redskins D held the Giants to only 19 points.)

Next week the Redskins offense gets to "get healthy" against the Titans. Their next real test will come in Indianapolis in two weeks. Which Redskins offense will show up, Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde's? But, whichever O shows up over the next few weeks, one thing is sure: The season has a long way to go and this Redskins team is very good. They are still on the path that leads to the NFC East title.

More thoughts 10/9/06: Michael Wilbon had this to say in Today's Washington Post, and I completely agree:

Sometimes a loss isn't a window to a bigger picture. Sometimes there's no greater meaning to draw from an athletic event than the result of the day. And the Washington Redskins' 19-3 loss to the Giants on Sunday is probably such a case in point.

The Redskins' offense, which had averaged 488 yards and 33.5 points per game the last two weeks, ran into a talented and stout defense that had been soul-searching for two weeks. The New York Giants, a team with legitimate Super Bowl ambitions, desperately needed to beat the Redskins and did. The Giants, if they wanted to avoid having their season start slip-sliding away one month in, had to win. The Redskins, much as they wanted to, did not. And the result was rather predictable, actually.

As Joe Gibbs said in his press conference, (I paraphrase) you strive to steal a road win against an NFC East opponent and win all of the home games against them. It is tough to win any NFC East road game.

Yet, despite the loss, the Skins are still on the road to the NFC East title and have won and lost the games that I predicted they would in the season preview. The Cowboys, Giants, and Eagles will beat each other up. The Redskins need to sweep the Eagles to get the title, but that can be done.

Redskins v Giants Preview

2006-10-08T12:51:00.000-04:00

The current Redskins and Giants were built almost identically. Each has a dynamic passing game, a strong tailback, and atypically suspect defenses. So, this should be a high scoring game.

For the Redskins, their defensive weakness can be traced to the missing Shawn Springs. They have to find a way to limit big plays until he returns. At one point in the fourth quarter against the Jaguars last week, the Redskins D limited the Jags to about 180 total yards, but approximately ninety of them came on two plays.

There are a couple of exceptions to the quality of the two teams, however. The Redskins secondary is superior to the Giants even without Shawn Springs. It's all about matchups. Burress and Shockey are two players who are used to tossing around smaller defensive players and racking up big yardage. Terrell Owens is another in that mold. But, the Redskins have the ultimate weapon to defend against that in Sean Taylor. The Giants do not have anyone like Taylor in their secondary.

Taylor makes big receivers look small. The balls that these big receivers usually jump up and stretch for are suddenly just out of reach as their arms quickly drop to protect their ribs. In the last four games against the Redskins, Shockey has a total of three catches. With the benefit of YouTube I already what Taylor has done to Owens in his career. Shockey is quoted in today’s NY Post saying that Taylor is the toughest guy that he goes up against. Expect more alligator arms from the Giants receivers today.

The Redskins special teams are also superior. John Hall had played for the Jets for several years and knows the wind patterns at the meadowlands well, maybe better than Feeley. Rock Cartwright has delivered a big return in big spots in almost every game this year. I love how the guy just pounds it right down the middle of the field the way Brian Mitchell used to do. And, Antwaan Randle-El is a great punt returner. Even the Redskins weakest link on specials, the punter Frost, is having a very good year so far.

Do not expect a repeat of last year’s debacle in New Jersey. That was a once in a lifetime event that I am happy I won’t have to relive. I expect Chris Cooley and Randle-El to have breakout games. The Redskins should win by three with a late field goal.

Oh, Brother...Dr. Z has Started Monk Hating Already

2006-10-05T12:47:00.000-04:00

Dr. Z (Bwaa Ha Ha—he calls himself doctor Z) just posted this about the 2007 Hall of Fame Nominees. He can’t wait until January to start his Monk bashing. This man is outrageous and should lose his ability to vote based on much of this reasoning.

Tough call for the Hall
Trying to cut annual nominee list to 25 candidates

Posted: Thursday October 5, 2006 12:00PM; Updated: Thursday October 5, 2006 12:18PM

I just opened my yearly package of misery. It comes from the Hall of Fame and it's called the Preliminary nomination list for the Class of 2007…

…Am I bitter? Yeah, every year at this time, when I see some of the names that appear on this list. They'll be chopped to 25 this month, then to the 17 finalists (15 moderns, two seniors) who will become subjects of the debate from which a maximum of six enshrinees with emerge on Feb. 3, 2007, when our Selection Committee has its final meeting.

Right now there's a huge collection of names, many of which appear because some poor fool, such as your faithful narrator, sent his name in...I'll try to narrow the list of 120 down to the 25 or so I've chosen to move to the next round…

…Wide Receivers
They're lining up four deep. There are 13 of them, and more will come from year to year because the numbers will be overwhelming, almost meaningless after a while. I have four names penciled in: Harold Carmichael, Henry Ellard, Michael Irvin and Andre Reed. If I'd have to predict which one will go all the way, I'd say Irvin. Art Monk again will provide spirited debate, for those of us who manage to remain awake throughout this old reprise. Please, Redskins fans, no e-mails at this particular time. Save 'em for January…

The Guy won't even give Art Monk the courtesy of staying awake during the debate on whether he belongs in the Hall. How are sportswriters selected for this responsibility? I would think that they would take it a little more seriously than Dr. "Z" does. If it is too much "misery" for him, I'm sure there are others who would love to vote. And, anyone who would put Irvin in the Hall ahead of Monk cannot be serious.

And if you wondered whether the guy is a Giants fan, wonder no more:

…Coaches, Contributors…
…I've always been a George Young man, and I guess I'll ride with him again…

Jack Del Rio's Take on the Skins

2006-10-04T14:14:00.000-04:00

From Jaguars.com:

...This is the Jack Del Rio era, which has been all about defense; 9-0 over the Steelers, for example. The Jaguars haven't always been productive on offense, but powerhouse defense has been their weekly calling card. Ask the Steelers. Ask the Colts.

Don't, however, ask the Redskins, who ravaged the Jaguars for 481 total net yards, including 112 yards rushing by Clinton Portis and an unconscionable 329 yards passing by Mark Brunell.

Unthinkable, right? Wrong.

In fact, Del Rio went into Sunday's game at FedEx Field with a distinct feeling the Redskins were the kind of offense that could wreak this kind of havoc on the Jaguars' defense....

...“I basically thought it was going to be like this. I thought there would be an opportunity to score a lot of points. I was afraid coming in we couldn't slow them up,” Del Rio said ...

Whom should we trust to assess the Redskins talent: Jack Del Rio or Peter King?

News Flash: Mets Stockpile Pitchers

2006-10-03T16:47:00.000-04:00

Omar Minaya announced today that he traded all twelve pitchers on their post-season roster in order to stockpile pitchers for their World Series run.

"This was in the plan all along," Minaya told the press. "We always knew that because of potential injuries that we'd need a lot of pitchers. By trading these twelve, including Martinez, Glavine, Hernandez, and Wagner, to several teams, we were able to bring back fifty-two pitchers most of which were walk ons, but some of which were in Rookie ball. We need to be ready for the playoffs."

Would You Like a Little Crow with Your Jaguar, Mr. Magaraci?

2006-10-03T16:18:00.000-04:00

Well, well, well.

Prior to the preseason, the Redskins were favored by many to make the playoffs. They were also favored by some to win their division and go far into the playoffs. Then suddenly, it seemed, everyone said to stick a fork in the Redskins because they were done. What changed? Apparently these people changed their opinion because of the Redskins preseason.

I can give many examples, but Colin Cowherd cutely said before the season, and after they were 0 – 2, that the Redskins were the fourth best team in…their division (i.e. they were the worst team in their division. For those who don’t get the joke, Cowherd was making fun of pundits who thought the Redskins were one of the better teams in the NFL).

As late as last week Joel Magaraci of the Newark Star Ledger wrote that the NFL is the “Show Me” league and the Redskins “hadn’t showed him anything.” He said beating the Jaguars would show him something and then he wrote that the Jaguars would win by six points.

Joel obviously felt that the Redskins couldn’t beat the Jaguars. The Jags were a dominating team from the AFC and the AFC is the best conference in the NFL. Two weeks ago, the Jags embarrassed last year’s Super Bowl champs when they shut out the Steelers. Shut them out! They shut down the Colts high-powered offense and held them to 272 yards and twenty-one points. The Colts average 398 yards in non-Jag games.

The Colts—with the much better Manning—were held to 272 by the Jags defense! They held the Steelers to 153 yards! How is that possible? Well it starts with the Jaguars two mountain ranges at defensive tackle. No team had been able to rush for 100-yards against the Jags and they had played: 1. the Cowboys—Peter King’s pick to win the Super Bowl; 2. the Super Bowl champion Steelers; and 3. the second-greatest-show-on-turf Colts. Those are three bonafide, ESPN-certified, Peter King/Len Pasquarelli/Dr. Z glorified powerhouses and the Jags defense dominated them.

Sure the Redskins put 495-yards and thirty-one points on the board against the Texans the week before, but the Texans are bad. There was no way that the sputtering Redskins offense could get 495-yards against the Jaguars.

And, Joel was right. The Redskins only put up 481 yards against the Jags.

Here is what the Jaguars defense allowed per game on average against the powerhouses they played prior to the Redskins game:
Yards: 249.3
Passing yards: 190.3
Rushing yards: 59.0
First downs: 12.3
Points: 12.7

The Jaguars defense also averaged two sacks per game.

Here is what the Redskins offense accomplished against this vaunted D:
Yards: 481 (almost double the Jag’s prior average)
Passing yards: 329 (73% higher than average)
Rushing yards: 152 (almost triple the average)
First downs: 22 (79% higher)
Points: 36 (almost triple)

The Skins did not allow one sack, and the Jags rarely even got close to Brunnell.

And guess what else happened this week? The Texans beat the Dolphins. Peter King of SI had predicted that the Dolphins would win ten games this year, earn a wild card, and take the fifth seed in the AFC. That must mean that the Dolphins are pretty good. Maybe the Texans, a team that the Redskins destroyed, are a little better than people gave them credit for.

This shows how little respect the Redskins and Texans are getting: Mark Brunell did what no other quarterback could do in the ninety-plus-year history of the NFL--he completed twenty-two straight passes--but he didn't even earn NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors for the feat. I get it that the Texans are not going to the Super Bowl this year, but let's put this in perspective. In the ninety-plus-year history of the NFL there have been some pretty awful defenses. There have also been many quarterbacks who are currently in the Hall of Fame, or who are locks for it, who played against those awful defenses. Not one of them was able to do was Brunnell did last week.

So, maybe the writing and broadcasting staff at ESPN are wrong. Maybe the staff at Sports Illustrated is wrong. Maybe the folks at the networks are wrong. Maybe half of the people who post on extremeskins.com are wrong. Maybe Joe Gibbs, Gregg Williams, and Al Saunders do know what they are doing. Let’s see: On the one hand I could side with and trust a head coach who is already in the Hall of Fame; a defensive coordinator who perennially has his defenses ranked in the top ten in the NFL; and an offensive coordinator who had the number one offense in the NFL in each of the past two years. On the other hand, I could side with Peter King and Dr. Z. How good are the Redskins coaches? Let’s look back to Super Bowl XXXIV.

Super Bowl XXXIV
One of the most exciting Super Bowls in history was SB XXXIV played in January 2000 between the Titans and the Rams. The game wasn’t decided until the last play of the game when Kevin Dyson of the Titans caught a pass and came up one-yard short of the end zone. The Rams beat the Titans 23 – 17.

The Rams were known as “The Greatest Show on Turf” because of their fast-moving, high scoring offense that played indoors. They had led the NFL in total yards that year (1999) and also in 2000. Al Saunders was their offensive coordinator in those two years. The Titans defense was in the top-five that season (1999) and also led the NFL in 2000. The Titans defensive coordinator those two seasons was Gregg Williams. So, Al Saunders’ offense barely beat Gregg Williams’s defense that year, but both proved they clearly belonged at the top of the NFL hierarchy, and now both are working in the same capacity for one team, the Redskins.

After that Super Bowl, Al Saunders went back to Kansas City to coach the Chiefs offense. Since then, in eighty games prior to joining the Redskins this year, the Chiefs offense had been ranked number one in the NFL in seven categories including the three most important:
Yards: (379.3 YPG)
TDs: 262
First downs: 1760

Gregg Williams followed up his superb Titans results with a head coaching job in Buffalo and his Bills led the AFC in defense in 2003. He came to Washington for the 2004 season and the Redskins led the NFC in defense that year. Of course, both coaches had tremendous success going much farther back than that SB XXXIV.

It Starts with the Head Coach
Joe Gibbs made a tremendous effort to sign both coaches for Washington. He called both as soon as NFL rules permitted him to, which usually meant he was waking them up around midnight. He flew to their hometowns the next day, visiting Williams in a blizzard, to talk about his program with the Redskins and impress upon them his seriousness in bringing them on board. He told them how much he respected them and how much responsibility they would have. And, he made sure they got paid. And maybe most important is how Gibbs subordinated his ego in the first place. When he saw problems, he did what was necessary to fix them even when that meant he had to relinquish some of his responsibilities. Let’s see, Joe Gibbs or Len Pasquarelli?

But, after four preseason games the Redskins were winless and the bandwagon’s wheels not only came off, they exploded. And, after two regular season games the Redskins were being ridiculed (Cowherd: “I said it before and I’ll say it again. The Redskins are the fourth best team in the NFC East”).

Well, I said it before and I’ll say it again: The season is a marathon, not a sprint. The Redskins shouldn’t have been judged by the preseason or even by their first two games. And, they shouldn’t be judged solely by the success they had the last two games when they scored 67 points and accumulated 976 yards on offense. But, now that one-quarter of the regular season is in the books, some things are becoming clear.

It was known before the season that the Redskins have a lot of weapons on offense and Al Saunders is a guru. What is becoming clear is the players are mastering his playbook, Mark Brunell is getting everyone involved, and the whole offense is starting to believe. There is a quiet confidence growing on that side of the ball. Things are finally falling into place for the offense. Despite missing their most important player—Portis—for half of the first game and all of the Dallas game, the Redskins offense is currently third best in the NFL. When the defense gets Shawn Springs back next month it will perform at a very high level again, too. Things are looking good for the Redskins.

(Giants week is always fun in my hometown because I live in the NY metro area. I will post my preview of this game sometime before kickoff.)

Skins 36 - Jaguars 30: WOW

2006-10-02T20:54:00.000-04:00

Brunnell dropped back and looked left. Moss was running down the left sideline, the sideline where my seats are located (section 118). I peeked over to see whom Brunnell was looking at and immediately screamed “NO!”

(Update 10/4/06: Evidently, a headset-wearing coach on the Redskins--possibly Saunders--felt the same way as I. In a press conference, Gibbs said a coach yelled "not there" into Gibb's headset as Brunnell was about to release the ball.)

Moss was the lone receiver on the left side and was double covered with a corner in front and a safety right behind him. From my angle, there was very little room to put that ball. I pictured the corner picking it and running it into the end zone in front of me. All of that imagining took place in about one or two seconds.

Then I saw Brunnell fire a bullet and Moss leap for the ball and grab it. Brunnell made a perfect throw. Two inches in any other direction and it would have been a disaster. In a split second I went from despair to elation, pretty much what everyone around me felt because complete strangers were jumping up and down, hugging, and high-fiving. It was bedlam and it was a lot of fun.

I’ll have more on the game tomorrow.

Update 10/3/06: On monday, Brunnell told Comcast Sportnet that he thinks the coaches are going to say that his TD throw in OT was "unwise" when they review the film together.

The Mets Need to Hit 0.500 in the Playoffs...

2006-09-29T10:38:00.000-04:00

...'cause it will be a miracle for them to outpitch anyone. This is one time that I wish I were wrong.

Counter Trey's 2006 Preview: The Redskins are the Best 0 – 2 Team in the NFL

2006-09-25T11:33:00.000-04:00

(Ed. Note: This was written before the game against the Texans. It couldn't be published until today because of a loss of electrical power over the weekend.)

Who can forget last year when the Redskins started the season 3 – 0 and all of the critics called them the worst 3 – 0 team in the NFL? Since they finished tied with Seattle and Chicago for the best record in the NFC and had beaten both of those teams; and since they came within one dropped interception from playing in Joe Gibbs’s sixth NFC Championship game; I’d say they were not even close to being the worst 3 – 0 team last year. This year they have already accumulated as many losses in the NFC (two) and the NFC East (one) as they did in all of last year and the critics make last year seem like decades ago. But, we and Peter King shouldn’t forget history, especially recent history, and most especially Joe Gibbs’s history.

In the Redskins first preseason game, Clinton Portis dislocated his shoulder and it spooked the entire team. Gibbs pulled the starting offense off of the field over the mild objection of their new offensive coordinator, Al Saunders. For the rest of the preseason the starting offense spent most of the time on the bench. That was unfortunate because that offense was trying to learn a 700-page play book that Saunders developed running NFL offenses for over twenty-years. Several times Saunders’ offenses were the best in the NFL including each of the last two years in Kansas City. The Redskins said they were getting lots of reps in practice, but practice speed and game speed are entirely different. This week, after the loss to Dallas, Gibbs said that he will run next year’s preseason differently from the way he ran it this year. Great coaches adapt.

So, after four preseason and two regular season games, the Redskins are still looking for their first win. This preview of the season was supposed to be published before the first regular season game, but not much would have changed in the analysis had it been published a few weeks ago. The season is a marathon, not a sprint. As bad as the Redskins have looked, they are only one game away from first place in the NFC East, well within reach for a team with this kind of talent and coaching ability.

The Problems:
With the benefit of two games of hindsight, there are two things that have surprised me so far. One is the complete lack of a pass rush from the Redskins front four. The other is the poor play of Mark Brunnell. Each has led to serious problems on third down. Let’s look at each of those problems.

No Pass Rush from the D-Line
Last year, the Redskins had several injuries on defense that resulted in significant loss of playing time. The worst of the injuries was to defensive tackle Cornelius Griffin, who missed about five games. When Griffin was playing and healthy, the Redskins did extremely well. They won their last five games and then won their first playoff game on the road. In that span they registered most of the sacks, QB pressures, and tips at the line-of-scrimmage that they had achieved in the whole year. A healthy Griffin drew double teams and freed Daniels to get at the quarterback, which he did with alacrity. Daniels also led the NFL in tips at the line. In my mind, Griffin was their defensive MVP last year because of those results.

So, why hasn’t the Redskins defensive line, with all four starters healthy and with a new, expensive pass rushing defensive end (Andre Carter), been able to pick up where it left off last year? Has 33-year old Daniels lost a step? That is difficult to fathom given the shape that Daniels keeps himself in. Everyone else on the D-line is between 31- (Salave’a) and 27-years old (Carter). Age is not the likely culprit. However, injury might again be.

Gregg Williams is an aggressive and unorthodox defensive coordinator and his teams frequently blitz the quarterback. He causes offensive lineman and backs to constantly guess where the blitz will come from next. The Redskins had the luxury of blitzing last year because cornerback Shawn Springs played through several injuries and was outstanding in shutting down their opponent’s best receiver. Springs also took part in many blitz packages himself and wound up with the team lead in sacks in 2004 with six. Even on plays when the Redskins didn’t blitz, the D-line would get pressure on the quarterback, in part because O-lines and backs were looking for the blitz.

This year Springs had surgery on his abdomen, has missed the first two games and might miss a few more, and the Redskins have noticeably reduced their blitzing. Some speculate that the Redskins sans Springs are not confident enough in their secondary to blitz. I counted three in the first game and only about a half-dozen the second. To use a baseball analogy, I think offenses are sitting on the fastball because they know that without Springs the Redskins defense can’t get the curveball over for a strike. When O-lines do not have to guess where the blitz is coming from, they can focus all of their attention on the guys directly in front of them and it becomes five- or six-O-lineman against four D-lineman. When backs do not have to stay in to pick up the blitz, they become another option in the receiving package. The end result is the third-worst defense at stopping teams from converting third downs.

In fairness to the Skins D-line, though, those weren’t two high school O-lines they went up against either. In their first game, for example, they faced the Vikings who have a left side that is a six-foot and five-inch, almost 700-pound wall of brick on which the Vikings just invested about $70 million. Many felt the Seahawks would regret letting guard Hutchinson get away even though he cost the Vikes about $49 million, which was guaranteed (for a guard!). The Vikings converted half of their third down plays against the Skins because their QB had all day to find his second and third receivers. Most of those conversions came on third and seven-plus yards to go. The Vikings have now started 2 – 0 and beat two teams that played in the NFC playoffs last year including the Panthers, everyone’s favorite to win the Super Bowl this year.

So, maybe the Springs injury is having a domino effect on the rest of the defense, and especially the defensive line. Skins fans shouldn’t expect him to be in mid-season form until about game eight, so the Skins need to figure this out or the season could be over before November. One injury cannot possibly prevent a serious contender from contending, and the Skins are a serious contender.

Poor QB Play
As for the Brunnell conundrum, I just can’t figure him out. After the 2004 season I thought he was done, and I wrote that here. I was eager to see what Gibbs’s declared 2005 starter, Patrick Ramsey, could do behind a Bugel/Gibbs offensive line. Then, Gibbs gave Ramsey the hook in less than one half of football (due to a minor injury) and after a couple of weeks Brunnell had performed so well that I wrote an apology to him here.

Brunnell wound up with the highest quarterback rating of all of the starting QBs in the NFC East last year and played like a veteran, making very few mistakes. Why is Brunnell not hitting his receivers this year despite having many more weapons at his disposal? The only difference between this year and last is the new play book and the Clinton Portis injury. Portis only had a couple of carries against the Vikings (and scored a touchdown) and didn’t even dress against the Cowboys. Can one injury have that much of an effect? Can it, especially when they have very capable backups for Portis? A more likely culprit is Brunnell’s lack of comfort with the playbook.

Again, to be fair, Brunnell put up good numbers last year despite getting off to a slow start and playing inconsistently in the middle of the year. In fact, the Redskins might have been the only playoff team in the NFL last year that relied that little on the quarterback for their wins. Portis, Moss and Cooley were their leaders on offense and Brunnell’s job often was to simply avoid sacks and turnovers and dump the ball off to Cooley and Moss and let them accumulate yards-after-catch, or YAC in NFL vernacular. There is no reason that he cannot do that again this year, especially with the addition of Brandon Lloyd, Antwaan Randle-El and TJ Duckett.

Reasons for Optimism:
Details from the Games Played: Vikings:
In the Vikings game, the Redskins had the ball inside the ten-yard line twice and were one Darren Sharper hit on Moss from scoring a touchdown on one of those possessions; instead they had to settle for field goals each time. That Sharper hit was the difference in the game. They were that close.

Even then, they came within a missed 48-yard field goal from tying the game and a 15-yard face mask penalty on the Vikings’ final drive from preventing the Vikings from taking the lead. Not having Portis and Springs surely hurt. Had they won that game they would be tied for first place today and would not be facing questions now of whether they will win a game this year.

Cowboys:
Down by seven in the second half against the Cowboys, Skins safety Sean Taylor made an athletic play and stripped the football from Cowboys RB Jones as he was tackling him. The skins drove the ball to within striking distance of tying the game, but Brunnell threw an interception that Roy Williams ran out of bounds at the one-yard line. Again, as bad as they have looked, they were one play from tying that game late in the second half.

So, now is not the time to panic.

The NFC East
Sean Taylor broke Terrell Owens hand last week. The official line is he broke it early in the game when he was blocking a corner and his finger “got caught in a shirt,” but there is little doubt in my mind that Owens doesn’t want to give Taylor any satisfaction. Taylor put two hits on Owens in that game that had Owens literally writhing in pain. This is probably the one that broke his hand.

Taylor has owned Owens in the five-or-so meetings since Taylor was drafted and has thoroughly intimidated Owens, even when Taylor was just a Rookie and Owens was all-world for the Eagles. (Taylor wore number 36 as a Rookie and Owen #81 for the Eagles as can be seen at 0:37, 1:04, 1:33 and 2:13 of this clip. This clip also has footage of rookie Taylor versus the best the NFL has to offer including Randy Moss, Keyshawn Johnson, Chad Johnson, and Donovan McNabb). In fact, the entire Redskins defense has done a tremendous job against guys like Owens since Gregg Williams arrived. Williams takes away the opponent's best threats and makes teams try to beat the Redskins with their second- or third-best options. Without Owens, the 2006 Cowboys are the 2005 Cowboys and watching the playoffs from home; sorry Mike Francesca and Peter King.

I have never underestimated the Eagles. I think they would have been in the hunt for the NFC East title last year had they not had all those injuries. I think last Sunday was the first time the Giants beat the Eagles with McNabb at QB and it took a Herculean, last-quarter effort to do it. But, the Eagles lost Kearse for the season and that will hurt. My fear is that that the Giants win gives them and Eli Manning a huge boost of confidence. Still, the Redskins have all four games left to play against those teams, so their fate is in their hands. If they split with the Giants, sweep the Eagles and take the home game against the Cowboys, they will win the NFC East.

The Schedule
Suddenly the Skins schedule doesn’t look as tough as it did before the season. Carolina and Tampa Bay are surprisingly 0 – 2 (so are Tennessee and Houston). On the flip side, Atlanta and New Orleans are surprisingly 2 – 0, but I fear them a lot less. The Colts and Jacksonville are also 2 – 0 and deserve to be feared, but no more than they were feared last year, and the Skins get to play the Jaguars in DC.

Everyone else that the Redskins have to play is 1 – 1. Again, the Skins have played horrifically, but were just one or two plays from 1 – 1. A little improvement will make a big difference, and that little improvement should come this week with the return of Portis, and next month with the return of Springs. With parity in every division except the NFC West, it is difficult to imagine that anyone besides Seattle will get a huge lead in the NFC.

The Playbook
The playbook will be mastered, of that there should be no doubt. The only question is will it be mastered in time to save the season. As I wrote up top, great coaches adapt and this is a great coaching staff. If you own a ranch somewhere, bet it on the Redskins this week against the Texans (Disclaimer: CT does not endorse gambling). Mark Brunnell is a smart QB. Smart QBs with his kind of talent adjust, and small adjustments will eventually be levered by their talent—especially their additions—into huge results.

The Additions
Critics sarcastically call the Redskins the champions of the off-season because they seem to get the most headlines when acquiring players. It was true that the owner Dan Snyder led the charge in 2000 to sign washed-up former stars like Deion Sanders and Bruce Smith, and half-star Jeff George, and it was their poor play that gave the Redskins the sarcastic label. But, the critics have not given the Redskins proper credit for their acquisitions since 2000, particularly since Gibbs became head coach and president of the team.

Other than this episode, Snyder learned his lesson from his 2000 errors. Much like the Yankees—who didn’t become good in the 1990s until Steinbrenner was prevented by MLB from presiding over his team as punishment for a bribery scandal—the Redskins didn’t improve in player acquisitions until Snyder found the discipline to stay out of player decisions. Many believe that Derek Jeter would be playing in someplace like Toronto if Steinbrenner was in charge back then; God only knows what the Redskins would look like if Snyder didn’t get out of the way.

So, the Skins have done quite well in the off-seasons since 2000, hiring Griffin (DT), Marcus Washington (OLB), John Hall (K), Brunnell (QB), Springs (CB), Sean Taylor (S), Cooley (TE), Moss (WR), Portis (RB), Randy Thomas (G), and Casey Rabach (C ) (not in date order or necessarily in order of importance). In other words, with the exception of Brunnell, they have focused all of their attention on stars who are young and who are (or were) just entering the prime of their careers.

This year they have continued the recent trend and added Brandon Lloyd (WR), Antwaan Randle-El (WR/PR), Andre Carter (DE), Adam Archuleta (S), and TJ Duckett (RB). Prior additions made their defense exceptionally strong. This year’s additions will bolster that, but also perfectly fill the holes that the Redskins had last year at wide receiver and returner. It is amazing that Moss played as well as he did last year when he had no one on the opposite side of the field to draw coverage away.

Some Wins are More Important than Others
Wins against division opponents count more than wins against the rest of the conference. Wins against teams in the conference count more than in non-conference games. And, because of playoff momentum, wins in late November and throughout December count more than those before then. And, of course, wins in January are the most important wins of the season.

Joe Gibbs’ record in important games is phenomenal. Last year he led the team to the NFC's best record against teams in the conference. The Redskins also had the best record in the NFC East at 5 – 1. Last year, Gibbs went 6 – 3 in regular season games in November and December/January including 5 – 0 in his last five. Gibbs then won a playoff game on the road in a very tough place to play before losing a close one to the eventual NFC Champions.

Joe Gibbs career record in games played after Novemebr 30 (including playoff games) is an absurd 53 – 16 for a 0.768 winning percentage. Since he returned to coaching in 2004, his record in games played in that time frame is 9 – 3; not bad for a guy who watched the “game pass him by.” Expect more of the same in big games this year.

Reason for Pessimism:
If Not Now, When?
It won’t take much for the Redskins to turn the ship around, but they have to start now, and they haven’t shown many signs that they will. After the first game, I took heart that they would have won if one of their possessions inside the ten had resulted in a TD. I thought the coaches would have made an adjustment for Dallas and blitzed more and that the offense would have absorbed more of Saunders’ 700-page playbook. But, the Dallas loss was a step back. And, we might not see a completely healthy Springs all year, so we might not see the aggressive and effective defense that we saw last year.

The NFC West
Seattle plays in a pathetic division. They can count on six wins before the season starts because they play six games against poor NFC West teams. No other team in the NFC has that luxury. The Seahawks are almost guaranteed a bye and home field advantage each year until the other three division opponents decide to put competitive teams on the field instead of putting the TV revenue in their pockets. It is very difficult for any team to get to the Super Bowl when they have to play an extra playoff game and have to travel, especially when an east coast team has to travel all the way to Seattle.

Counter Trey Prediction:
The Redskins made the playoffs last year via an aggressive, top-ranked defense and a low-risk, ball-control offense that occasionally stretched the field with deep passes. The players that produced those results were made up of young and aggressive players and experienced veterans who were mostly in the prime of their careers. They produced solid results on offense despite having only one threat at wide receiver and only one other receiving threat in Chris Cooley a tight end.

This year they have all of that talent returning plus they made terrific additions to fill holes. They also brought in an offensive genius who has had tremendous success everywhere he has been; each time with different players. All of that should translate into wins soon. I predict that will happen sooner than the critics think. And Joe Gibbs’s ability to win when it counts should never be discounted.

This is what I expect to happen in the remainder of the year:

Minnesota L
@ Dallas L

@ Houston W
Jacksonville W
@ New Jersey Giants L
Tennessee W
@ Indianapolis L
Dallas W
@ Philadelphia W
@ Tampa Bay W
Carolina L
Atlanta W
Philadelphia W
@ New Orleans W
@ St. Louis W
New Jersey W

I cannot wait to hear the howling by Redskins fans and Redskins media if the they lose to the Giants in New Jersey as I predict and start the year 0 - 3 in the NFC and 0 - 2 in the NFC East. Actually I can wait. Based on the posts on Extremeskins.com, DC area psychiatrists must have had a record year last year. And, they are off to a great start this year. Remember fans, it's a marathon not a sprint. Take a deep breath and trust this coaching staff to maximize the talent on this very talented team.

With these results the Redskins will finish 11- 5 overall; 4 – 2 in the NFC East; and 8 – 4 in the NFC. That is one game better than last year, which is about what I figured they would achieve just based on talent. That is good enough to win the NFC East and get at least one playoff game at home, but probably not good enough to get home field advantage or a playoff bye. Chicago and Seattle are good teams that play pathetically easy schedules. Despite getting to play NFC West teams, Seattle also has Kansas City, Oakland, Green Bay, and Tampa Bay on their schedule. How the hell did the NFC champs get that gift?

What? You think I am crazy to predict that the Redskins will finish with eight wins in their last nine games? You think it’s crazy to predict they will run the table after November 30? Plenty of folks laughed last year when I wrote that the Skins would lose to the Chargers and then win their last five games and make the playoffs. Those same folks apologized in January.

As I said, the Redskins are the best 0 – 2 team in the NFL. Next year they will have to start addressing some age at quarterback and defensive line, but those are next year's problems and there is plenty of time to deal with them. Today, the Redskins already have everything that they need to win the NFC East.

Skins v Vikings: Quick Hits

2006-09-12T16:36:00.000-04:00

1. The stadium was loud last night and it was the perfect setting to unveil Saunders' new offense. Clearly, it was a different offense than the one the Redskins showed in the preseason, not only in its formations, movement, and the way they spread the ball around to multiple weapons, but also in its effectiveness. Sure, sixteen-points in one game do not sound like much, but it is infinitely more than zero-points in four preseason games.

Again, the coaches did not lie when they said they only used two-percent of the playbook in the preseason. As the skill players get used to the playbook, the offense will perform much better than last night; let's hope it doesn't take too long;

2. The offense missed Clinton Portis. I love Betts and Cartwright and I cannot wait to see Duckett get in the game, but Portis is the star. Let’s hope he’s ready for Dallas on Sunday;

3. The defense played way below expectations. They put no pressure on Brad Johnson and could not stop half of the third-and-long plays. Those are killers. Williams's usually blitz-happy defense only blitzed on three plays the whole game. The Washington Post speculates it was because Williams did not want to leave Carlos Rogers in man-to-man coverage. Given that Rogers was atrocious yesterday, I can understand why. Shawn Springs was out and will be out for probably another three weeks after offseason abdominal surgery. Springs is a great corner and a team leader and was missed, but Williams is smart enough to figure out a way to compensate. This defense is much better than the way it played yesterday;

4. The unnecessary roughness call on Sean Taylor in the fourth quarter was ridiculous. Replays showed the ball was still playable when Taylor put the hit on and Taylor hit the receiver with his shoulder, not his helmet. Taylor has a target on his back since the spitting incident in Tampa Bay and last night’s officiating crew was the same as the one in Tampa that day. At the very least, if they are going to call it on Taylor, then they had to call it on the Redskins’ last drive of the game when the Vikings defender made an even more egregious hit to the Redskins receiver, or in the first half when Santana Moss was nearly decapitated. Had they called it on the last drive of the game, the Redskins tying field goal attempt with seconds left would have been a chip shot;

5. The difference between a win and a loss last night was the Skins failure to punch it into the end zone from inside the ten-yard line on two different drives. One failure came when Moss was nearly decapitated in the end zone. If they made one of those they would have walked away with a win;

So the bottom line is this: The offense is much better than they are getting credit for and the defense is much better than it played last night. This coaching staff will soon get both units to perform at a high level.

Preseason Victories

2006-09-11T12:19:00.000-04:00

The Steelers, Colts, Bucs, and Redskins were the only teams to have a winning record in 2005 and post no wins (Steelers and Redskins) or just one win (Colts and Bucs) in the preseason. The Steelers and colts both won yesterday (did you really think they wouldn’t?), the Bucs lost and the Redskins play tonight.

The Cowboys, Panthers, Giants and Bengals were the only teams to have a winning record in 2005 and be undefeated in the 2006 preseason. Of course, the Cowboys, Panthers, and Giants lost and the Bengals had the sole win in this group.

If one were to make predictions based on the preseason, one would have been 2 – 5 in these games with the last game to be played tonight. My prediction is the Redskins will win tonight and make it 2 – 6 for those (e.g. Burkhardt) who believe preseason wins are important.

The full season preview will be written next week. HTTR

Gotta Love that Peter King

2006-09-08T14:56:00.000-04:00

On last night’s Steelers-Dolphins telecast, Peter King reported that Eli Manning talked to his college coach about his late-season crumble last year and his college coach told him that his throwing mechanics were horrible. King went on to say that Eli worked on those mechanics in the pre-season and apparently fixed his problems, but then King dismissed it saying “but it was only the pre-season.”

Only the pre-season? I thought King said the Redskins were going to be horrible because of their performance in the pre-season.

And, now for:

Separated at Birth?

Bride of Frankenstein:

and Peter King?

>

Peter King's 2006 NFL Predictions

2006-09-05T14:45:00.001-04:00

As if right on cue, Peter King, the Bride of Frankenstein, published his predictions yesterday. Of course he has the Redskins finishing in last place this year, the same spot he predicted they would finish last year.

This year he thinks Brunell needed to prove something in the preseason and failed. Last year he predicted that Brunell would be such a failure that Jason Campbell would be the Redskins starting QB by Halloween. When Gibbs announced that he was coming back in January of 2004, King said the game had passed him by. Genius.

Notice that he predicts that the Giants and every team that has an affinity with past Giants teams--Dallas (Parcells), Carolina (Fox), New England (Belichick)--will make the playoffs. He has Dallas, Carolina and New England finishing in first place in their divisions. He also predicts that Dallas will win the Super Bowl. Last year he had Dallas second in the NFC East and the first Wild Card seed. Last year he had New England (of course) beating Minnesota in the Super Bowl. Genius.

Oh, and if you think I'm the only one who thinks he's biased against the Redskins and Art Monk, check out this guy who stole King's calendar and posted it on his blog. Look at the entry for 10am.

Redskins 2006 Preview Coming Soon

2006-09-04T14:42:00.000-04:00

Pre-: A prefix from the Latin "prae" which means "in front of, before."

View: From the French root "veu" which means "to see."

Hold the phone! If "pre" means "before" then preseason must mean before the season! That must mean that the Redskins' season hasn't started yet. And, THAT must mean that the Redskins are not 0 - 4, but are in fact 0 - 0 like everybody else.

Whew! After reading and hearing the recent NY area media accounts of the Redskins, I thought their season was over already. What a relief.

Update: I just checked the NFL tie breaker rules and verified that preseason record is never used as a playoff tie-breaker. Whew!

So, let me get this straight. A team of veterans who have had success in the past, and who have suffered little turnover this year, is joined by a veteran coaching staff that has had tremendous success in the NFL...Hall of Fame success...and Redskins fans are supposed to question the leaders' collective judgment about whether they are properly preparing to win in the NFL?

One host on WFAN radio in NY, Kevin Burkhardt, actually said that before the preseason, he thought the Redskins were a playoff team, but he has now changed his mind. If I recall correctly, he had them wining the NFC East. Then, he went down the Redskins schedule assigning his predictions for wins and losses on a game-by-game basis. He had the Redskins losing their opener at home against the Vikings and after nine games had them at 3 - 6...because of the preseason.

Then "Colonel Burghalter" invited Redskin hater Peter King on his show to talk football. King is the man who thinks it is solely his job to keep Art Monk out of the NFL Hall of Fame. Burkhardt asked King if he was wrong for knocking the Redskins down because of the preseason. King said that if there is one team in the NFL who you SHOULD judge by their preseason results, it is the Redskins. Why? Because Brunell and Saunders had to prove something this preseason. Really? Brunell, who took his team farther in the playoffs than Peter King's Giants, and Al Saunders, who has had the number one offense in the NFL several times, have something to prove? What?

Last year the Redskins won eleven games, including a road win in the playoffs, after going 1 - 3 in the preseason. Gibbs won the Super Bowl in 1982 after going 0 - 4 in the preseason. The Colts were 0 - 5 in last year's preseason before winning thirteen regular season games. After the Colts winless preseason they were still most people's favorite to win the Super Bowl. The Colts are 1 - 3 this year. Don't they have something to prove since they couldn't win the "Big One" last year? It is hard to even write that about the Colts because it is all so ridiculous. To think that preseason wins mean anything is absurd.

And, now we know why some people talk about football for a living and others coach football for a living. Now we know why some coaches are inducted in the NFL Hall of Fame, and some radio talk show hosts and sportswriters need to buy a ticket to get in.

Stay tuned for the Regular Season Preview.

The NFL HOF and Questionable Sports Media Judgment

2006-08-31T14:44:00.000-04:00

Many of the major sportswriters have some affinity to the New York area. They typically either grew up, attended journalism school, or worked at media-parent headquarters here (NY Times, ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN/Sports Illustrated/Time Warner, etc.). Even those that never set foot in NY cannot avoid its influence because it is the media center of the world.

New York probably has the biggest sports following in the country; I think only Boston, Chicago and St. Louis rival it and only the former two can be considered media centers. Los Angeles is too laid back and doesn’t even have a football team. Miami? Sure they won two World Series and love their Dolphins, but there are more Mets and Yankees fans at Marlins’ games than Marlins’ fans. Dallas, Houston, Seattle, Milwaukee, Phoenix, Cincinnati, Cleveland are not even close. Philadelphia lives in perpetual NY sports envy.

Anyone who lives for any length of time in New York and who reads the sports pages or watches the local sports news cannot help but get caught up in the New York sports media frenzy. I know, I’ve lived here my whole life.

The Mets and Yankees battle for the back pages of the tabloids in the spring and summer; the Jets and Giants battle for the back pages in the late fall and winter. And, in late summer and early fall, all four are battling for media attention, and there is plenty of space and tape for all. This ignores the Rangers and Islanders and Knicks and Nets and MLS, and the major golf tournament that takes place here typically once per year, and tennis’s US Open, etc. that all grab media attention. And, when a New York team is also successful, they get more attention than any other item of world news. "Ahmadinejad--isn’t he the new Giants wideout and half-brother of Cincinnati’s Houshmandzadeh?"

I believe that many NFL writers have been influenced by New York's media complex, perhaps none more than the more seasoned writers who were writing when the NY Giants were winning Super Bowls in the 1980s and 1990, or in 2001 when they made their last SB run. I believe most of them have a favorable bias towards the Giants. Even if they were raised in Kansas, many could not help but get caught up in the New York media hysteria. Is that just selective perception on my part? Perhaps.

Yet it seems that anyone associated with those successful Giants teams either gets disproportionate adoration when they are good at what they do--think Bill Parcells and John Fox--or a free pass from criticism when they are not so talented (Jim Fassell). The following, from Peter King's latest edition of Monday Morning QB, is just one of many examples of fawning over former Giants one can find in the sports media:

PANTHERS (Spartanburg, S.C.): It's hard to imagine a player not wanting to play for John Fox. What more do you want from a coach than a man who puts you in the best position to win, with a competitive team, and who looks you in the face and tells you what's what? Every time I'm around his team, I appreciate the hold he has on it -- and the fact that his players know he'll do whatever it takes to win, playing whomever he has to play to get that win.

Jeez, Peter, try subtlety when courting a lover.

Now, I think Fox is a pretty good coach, too. But, this is just the latest of many examples of fawning from the media over these guys. It is rare to hear criticism of them. Even after Parcells left the Giants in shambles when he quit suddenly, Peter King, “Dr. Z”, and Len Pasquerelli write that Parcells can do no wrong.

This bias raises questions about sportswriters’ judgment when they have a Hall of Fame vote. Surely, no team was more of a threat to the Giants in their Super Bowl years than the Washington Redskins. Yes, the Cowboys won three Super Bowls in the early nineties, but other than in 1993 the Giants weren't that competitive in those years. When the Giants were competitive, the Redskins usually stood between them and the Super Bowl, like 1986 when the two teams met in the NFC Championship game, or 1987, when the Redskins succeeded the Giants as Super Bowl champs, and 1990 and 1991 when first the Giants and then the Redskins took home Lombardis. Of course, the Redskins kicked off the bitter rivalry when they won the NFC Championships after the 1982 and 1983 regular seasons.

So, it makes one pause and wonder: If these writers are biased in favor of all things Giants, can they possibly be biased against all things Redskins? Does that explain why Art Monk is still waiting for his call from Canton? Does that explain the invective that Dr. Z and King write about Monk whenever his name comes up on the Saturday before the Super Bowl? One or two more votes in any of the past six years would have given Monk his rightful place in Canton.

Isn't it outrageous that a team that played in five NFC Championship games and four Super Bowls in a ten-year span has only two Hall of Fame inductees--Head Coach Joe Gibbs and Running Back John Riggins? If Gibbs did not get in the HOF on his first ballot someone from the commissioner's office would have started an investigation. But, hmmm, if the sportswriters are biased against most things Redskins, why would they have bothered electing a Redskins player from that era? Where did Riggins begin his NFL career again? Oh yeah, the NEW YORK Jets.

Cameron or Green?

2006-08-24T12:56:00.000-04:00

The Mets acquired Shawn Green on Tuesday. The Diamondbacks also sent about $6.5 million to the Mets to defray some of his cost. Green is signed through 2007 with a $10 million option or a $2 million buyout for 2008. Had the Mets kept Mike Cameron this year and picked up their option on his contract next year, the total cost for each player during Green’s remaining term with the Mets (assuming the Mets do not pick up their option on Green in 2008) would have been virtually equal. Were the Mets shortsighted in dumping Cameron? You be the judge:

Shawn Green’s 2006 Statistics:
G: 115
BA: 0.283
R: 59
OBA: 0.348
HR: 11
RBI: 51
SB: 4
OPS: 0.778

FLD: 0.988
Assists: 1 (Rank: Last among MLB RFs who qualify for fielding leadership)
Range Factor: 1.73 = ((PO + A)*9)/Innings Played (Rank: Last)
Zone Rating: 0.840 = balls fielded/balls hit in typical zone (Stats Inc.) (Rank: Last)

Mike Cameron’s 2006 Statistics:
G: 105
BA: 0.264
R: 69
OBA: 0.347
HR: 18
RBI: 58
SB: 19
OPS: 0.828

FLD: 0.983
Assists: 6 (Rank: 5th among MLB CFs who qualify for fielding leadership)
Range Factor: 2.81 (Rank: 7th)
Zone Rating: 0.892 (Rank: 8th)

Speaking of defense, Carlos Beltran is leading all National League centerfielders in assists with ten while the next closest—Cameron, et al—have six. Beltran also leads NL centerfielders in Range Factor, Zone Rating, and double plays. He should get his first Gold Glove award this year despite the excellent season the Cubs’ Juan Pierre is having.

Pierre has had a comparable number of chances as Beltran and has yet to make an error compared with Beltran’s mere two errors, but the difference between zero and two errors over the course of a season is pure luck. Also, Beltran’s range and arm put him over the top. Pierre’s Range Factor is only 86% of Beltran’s and Pierre has no double plays and only three assists.

A Gold Glove for Carlos should also put him over the top in the NL MVP vote. More on that in a later post.

Portis Patois

2006-08-24T11:46:00.000-04:00

I have to admit, Redskins fans, that some of the things that Clinton Portis has said lately have bothered me. I understand the NFL is not like amateur sports and that there is a hierarchy when it comes to players on professional teams. But, I also know that the flatter that hierarchy is, the more cohesive the team will be.

I didn’t like to hear Portis say that there was no reason for a running back of his caliber to be playing in a preseason game and risking injury. My immediate thought was: What does a guy like Ladell Betts (and Joe Gibbs) think about that statement. Ladell has been a solid contributor to the Redskins getting nearly four yards per carry when Portis was resting. He was a high draft pick and is young. In addition, he has been an excellent citizen and great teammate. Well, I found out what Ladell though about it. Here is how Mike Wise of the Washington Post described it; Wise was writing a story about the friendship between Betts and Rock Cartwright, who are roommates in the offseason:

Imagine being best friends with a guy whose professional goal was to take your job. Awkward? No, it's NFL reality, the same reality that allows two role-playing running backs to survive in a world of diva ballcarriers.

Like Portis, who wondered why a player of his caliber should even have been playing in the preseason last week. "I wouldn't say that bothers me," Betts said. "I understand a player with credentials feeling that way. He's entitled to his opinion. But I don't agree with that. There is a game speed you get in the preseason that's impossible to simulate in practice. We don't hit and tackle in practice like a preseason game.

"And the idea if you get hurt, you should get hurt in the regular season also doesn't make sense. I mean, you can get hurt in practice any day of the week. So we shouldn't practice? That's just me."

The other news item with respect to the running backs is that the Skins traded for 25-year old T.J. Duckett to add depth because of Portis’s injury. Duckett was a first-round draft pick for the Falcons and is a short-yardage monster who has scored 31 touchdowns in 55 games. But, because the Redskins had pretty good depth at running back already with Betts, Cartwright, and Mike Sellers—another short-yardage beast who scored 7 touchdowns last year—I wondered how the backups would take the news. According to today’s Washington Post they were shocked, frustrated, and angry. I would have rather seen the Skins get another offensive lineman for that draft pick, but what do I know. I’m sure Duckett will be very good.

Revisiting the Skins v Seahawks Playoff Game

2006-08-23T14:29:00.000-04:00

This is the first time I have read an analysis of January's Skins-Seahawks playoff game that is nearly identical to mine.

Who is to Blame: Minaya or the Wilpons?

2006-08-21T16:41:00.000-04:00

Last year, before the start of the 2005 Major League Baseball season, I had a friendly disagreement with an acquaintance from my sons’ little league program. We are both Mets fans, but we had the exact opposite take on the Mets recent acquisitions—Beltran and Martinez.

My take was that the Mets finally got it right by acquiring Beltran, who was a five-tool player just entering his prime, and signing him to a long-term, albeit pricey, contract. At the time Beltran had just given one of the most remarkable performances in MLB playoff history and almost single-handedly carried the Astros to the World Series. My only concern was that he was willing to sign with the Yankees for much less than the Mets had offered and I wondered whether he wanted to play for the Mets at all. My friend’s take was that the contract was just too big. I don’t think he discounted Beltran’s abilities, but he didn’t like the dollar amount of the contract.

At the time, I had also read that Pedro Martinez, a pitcher acknowledged by practically everyone to be past his prime, had a tear in the labrum of his pitching shoulder. The article explained that it wasn’t anything to be concerned about because Pedro had been pitching with the tear for some time. My view was that it was one thing to pitch with an injury when you are 29-years old and quite another when you are 34. My acquaintance’s view was simply that he was Pedro, a future Hall of Famer.

The Mets had to offer Pedro a four-year deal or else he would have re-signed with Boston, his preferred team. I felt that the Mets would be lucky to get two good years out of Pedro, but beyond that it was the Wilpons’ money to throw away. Although there is no salary cap in baseball, the Wilpons have been known to get tight fisted, especially right after they make bad, expensive deals. The thing I worried about was blowback in years three or four of the Martinez contract with the Mets sitting on their hands when it came time to sign talented players.

I’ll have to admit that in 2005 my acquaintance’s take looked a lot better than mine. Although I was one of the few Mets fans who saw the value that Beltran delivered in 2005, superficially at least, Martinez looked like the better signing in 2005. Beltran played hurt last year without complaint and did many of the little things to help the team win, but his numbers were not what most fans expected. They booed Beltran mercilessly. But, player acquisitions should never be judged in their first year, especially when it is the first of four for an old pitcher with a lot of mileage or the first of several for a young player just reaching his prime.

Now it is 2006 and Martinez has not even been able to give the Mets the two good years that I thought he could. He has had two stints on the DL this year and he has lost his fastball. He started out quickly with five wins in five starts but it has been all down hill ever since. To his credit, he is a pitcher, and he has used his guile to get batters out despite losing his velocity. In one sequence of pitches in his last game he struck out a batter who was late on a 77-mile per hour fastball. How can a major league hitter be late on a 77-mile an hour fastball you ask? Pedro had set him up with a few 72-mile per hour changeups. But, you need more than guile in October.

So, here we are in August and the Mets are running away with their division thanks to the play of Beltran and Wright—who are likely to split the New York MVP vote and allow Pujols, Howard or Berkman to take the NL MVP trophy—and the cast of Reyes, LoDuca, Delgado, Martinez, Glavine, Trachsel, and Wagner, and others who have played well as a team. But, the Mets are in big trouble.

When the top of your rotation is 34-years old or older and you give away solid young pitchers like Kris Benson, a legitimate number three starter, for practically nothing, you are only asking for trouble. Tom Glavine might never pitch in another game because of a blood clot in his shoulder. In all likelihood Pedro will never even get close to the pitcher he was even as late as 2004. And, now that Omar Minaya realizes how bad it looks, he is in full “cover-your-ass” mode and has contrived that he traded away Benson to stockpile pitchers for situations like these. What?! Here is how Mets.com describes Minaya’s view:

"That was the original plan all along," said Minaya. "I'm big on pitching and you always want to have numbers in pitching."

Minaya said the Jan. 21 trade in which the Mets acquired John Maine and Jorge Julio for Kris Benson is an example of improving the club through the numbers equation. The Mets subsequently traded Julio for Orlando Hernandez.

"Obviously, you don't plan on having some of your younger guys get hurt, but by having more pitchers available, then you can handle the injuries that transpire," Minaya said.

Minaya is actually saying that he was planning for all of these pitching injuries by trading away a terrific young starting pitcher to help him stockpile other pitchers. Okay, let’s look at what he did: He traded Benson for John Maine and Jorge Julio. Maine is a rookie who has been hot and cold, but is certainly not someone the Mets could count on in October. Julio was a complete bust and Minaya dumped him for Orlando Hernandez, whom the Rockies were only too happy to dump themselves. To portray the Benson trade as Benson for two guys currently in the Mets starting rotation is absurd. The Mets could have gotten Hernandez for practically anything as the Julio trade proved. They didn’t need to trade Benson to get him.

The Mets could be playing with a rotation of Benson, Hernandez, and Trachsel and at least have a fighting chance to win the National League pennant. But if Martinez cannot find his fastball—or even get off the DL—and if Glavine can’t pitch again this year, the Mets will be lucky to beat the Reds in the Division round of the Playoffs.

I am not writing this simply to bash Minaya because he is certainly an improvement over Phillips and Duquette, but he is not the genius that many make him out to be. He blew the Delgado negotiations last year by sending a Hispanic assistant who tried to con Delgado into signing by leveraging their common heritage. Delgado was so turned off by it that he signed with the Marlins for less.

In virtually every other move—from Martinez to Beltran—he relied on the Wilpons to open their wallet. At best, Minaya has done a better job simply because he got the Wilpons to spend their money and because he wasn’t the guy who traded Kazmir.

At worst, Minaya is the guy who traded the two most precious assets that a Major League team covets, namely high-quality, young, starting pitchers (Benson) and gold glove centerfielders with power (Mike Cameron) for little in return.

I have already written about Benson, but did you know that in the last ten years including 1996 there have been ten different centerfielders who have won a gold glove in MLB? Out of those ten, only six have ever hit thirty or more home runs in a season and Cameron was one of those six. So, who did the Mets get in return for Cameron, the precious asset that every team covets? Xavier Nady, a part-time rightfielder. Nady was a solid player, but he wasn’t a precious asset. In fact, the Mets thought so little of Nady that they quickly traded him for a 40-year old set-up reliever who is on borrowed time.

And, what are the Mets trying to acquire at the moment? Starting pitching and a good defensive outfielder with some pop, of course.

So, no, Minaya is no genius. He deserves credit for signing Beltran, but that just showed he had an ability to get the Wilpons to open their wallet in 2005. This year is a different story. I would much rather have heard Minaya say what I think is the truth. Namely, that the Wilpons told him he had to dump salary if he wanted to take on Delgado’s contract. That is the only thing about the Benson and Cameron trades that makes any sense to me. Then, Mets fans could focus their blame on the Wilpons, who have repeatedly shown they lack the will to put a championship team on the field. Despite the fact that I completely buy the “Moneyball” philosophy, there is no excuse for lacking that will in a major market like New York.

It's Great to be a Redskins Fan

2006-07-31T13:37:00.000-04:00

By Howard Bryant
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, July 30, 2006; E01

During the Washington Redskins' minicamp last month, change could be measured in heart rate and decibels. Reserve tailback Ladell Betts broke through a crease on the right side and raced free. Defensive teammates Sean Taylor and Pierson Prioleau tailed off, conserving energy while preparing for the next mundane repetition.

As Betts dashed near the sideline, he was joined suddenly in full sprint by 59-year-old Al Saunders, the Redskins' new associate head coach in charge of the offense. Saunders ran with Betts, his voice booming.

"That's right! We don't stop running hard until you cross that goal line! That's Redskin football! We don't stop! Way to finish! Good job, Ladell!"

Redskins defensive end Renaldo Wynn looked on and said after practice that day: "There are a lot of coaches who tear you down to build you up. Al builds you up to build you up higher..."

...Saunders's motor is intensifying. His playbook is 700 pages. He did not vacation following minicamp, choosing to formulate preliminary game-plan sketches through Week 4 of the regular season. "Had I not been a head coach at a very young age, it would have been disappointing," Saunders said. "The most important thing is who I work with and where I work and the opportunity to win a world championship. Being a head coach just to be a head coach is not the end-all. I love coaching football and I love coaching offense.

"Joe Gibbs has three Super Bowl rings and he asked me to run his offense? Come on. I've got the best job in America..."

American League Dominance?

2006-07-10T15:14:00.000-04:00

The All Star break is a great time to take stock, and we have heard from the pundits. Major League Baseball’s American League is so much better than its National League that many pundits would cancel this year’s World Series and crown the ALCS winner the MLB champ. So, let’s take a look at some data to see if they are on the right track.

The American League won 154 interleague games this year and lost only 98. That is a remarkable fifty-six games over 0.500. So, the AL has won 61% of the games in 2006, and conversely, the NL has only won 39% of the time. This was the worst performance by any league since interleague play began ten years ago (see table). In fact, the worst beating of one league by the other prior to this year was the NL’s dominance of the AL in 2003 when the NL won 137 games to the AL’s 115.

Out of ten seasons of interleague play, the AL has accumulated four seasons when it finished more than ten games over 0.500 (including one season when it finished 12 games over 0.500, the closest margin in this analysis), and the NL has accumulated three such seasons. Three times the leagues finished within ten wins of each other. If we expand the criteria that determine superiority to fifteen games over 0.500, we find that the AL earned that in three seasons, the NL in three seasons, and they finish within fifteen games of each other in four seasons. These numbers fail to show the dominance of one league over the other.

Overall, the AL’s superior record in 2006 eliminated the deficit it had accumulated in the nine prior seasons. Prior to 2006, the AL had won 1,095 times to the NL’s 1,104, which is a record that statisticians would show is not different from 0.500—again, no dominance here.

YEAR AL NL
1997 97 117
1998 114 110
1999 116 135
2000 136 115
2001 132 120
2002 123 129
2003 115 137
2004 126 125
2005 136 116
2006 154 98
Totals 1249 1202

If the prior nine years show a virtually identical winning percentage for the two leagues, and each league had the same number of superior seasons, what is different about this year? What is influencing the pundits to believe that there has been a major shift in superiority? Has there been a major shift in talent from the NL to the AL, or is something else at work here?

One thing that might be influencing popular opinion is more recent history. Last year the AL won 136 games, making their two-year record 290 wins and 214 losses. The last 0.500 season was 2004 and the NL's last winning season was 2003. Another might be the AL’s recent dominance in All-Star games. The AL is 8-0-1 in the last nine years. Another might be the AL sweeps of the NL in the last two World Series. The NL hasn’t won a World Series game since Florida won game six in 2003 and took the series from the Yankees 4 - 2.

Still, statisticians would be hard pressed to make a case of AL dominance on only two years of data, or even nine years of All Star results when the best pitchers rarely pitch in the game. And, the NL did win two of the last five World Series, which is not statistically different from 0.500.

What Do We Remember?
Ultimately, the main thing that people remember about any particular baseball season ten years later is who won the World Series in that year; we really only care about championships. Does anyone remember which league was better when the Big Red Machine was crushing the AL in the 70s, or when the A’s took three straight championships? Probably not. We don’t really care which league is better on average or which league has better all stars on average.

So, does a winning interleague or All Star record give us any clues of the eventual World Series winner? There aren’t many observations, so this argument will be built mostly anecdotally, but at least it is an attempt to be objective, unlike the hysteria that followed interleague play this year.

First, let’s examine the record in All Star play since the respective leagues were broken into divisions in 1969. In that time, MLB held thirty-six World Series and the AL has won twenty-one of them. In the last ten, the AL has won seven. But, does the league that wins the All Star game also win the World Series?

Since and including 1969, there have been thirty-five seasons in which the All Star game did not result in a tie and in which a World Series was played (in 1994 they played an All Star game that was won by the NL, but the World Series was cancelled due to the players strike; in 2002 the All Star game resulted in a tie). In those thirty-five years, the winning All Star league correctly predicted the league that produced the World Series winner eighteen times; so, the All Star game incorrectly predicted the World Series winner seventeen times. Don’t bet the ranch on the World Series based on the All Star game.

What about interleague play? Well, we only have nine years of interleague play where we know the World Series winner, which is not a lot to go by. In those nine years, the AL was more than fifteen games over 0.500 twice, the NL three times, and they were within 15 games of each other four times. So, in five seasons of “conclusive” interleague play, the “convincing” interleague winner correctly determined the league that won the World Series four times. But, are five observations enough to get you to bet the ranch?

Even an eighty-percent accuracy rate is not enough to convince me in only five seasons of results. Looking at the All Star results again, there were two stretches of five years when the winning All Star league could not predict the World Series winner (1970 through 1974 and 1984 through 1988). I would wait for more results.

Interleague Play
While ten years from now we will probably only remember who won the 2006 World Series and not much more, I still want to know what led to this year’s interleague results. Is the AL that much better than the NL on average?

This year the NL East, Central, and West played the AL East, Central, and West, respectively, in interleague series. Here is one statistic that I found compelling: While the entire AL was fifty-six games over 0.500, just four AL teams were a combined fifty games over 0.500 against the NL, and three of those four played in the American League Central. Hmmm. The devil is in the details. So, the other ten AL teams are simply 0.500 teams when playing the NL, which is closer to what I’d expect.

The four dominators are made up of the Red Sox, Tigers, White Sox, and Twins. The Red Sox are an interesting team. They are certainly very good and lead the AL East by three games over the Yankees. But, the Red Sox are especially good at home where they are 27-10 this year. They are merely 26-23 on the road.

The Red Sox played against the NL East this year and as luck would have it, they played six of their toughest nine interleague games at Fenway. They played a home and away series against the second-place Phillies, and they played all of their games against the first-place Mets at Fenway. Details.

At the time that the Mets played the Red Sox, the Mets had a twelve-game lead in their division and had several players who were nursing injuries. The best thing about running away with a division is it gives a team time to rest its players, especially the injured ones as the Mets did in the Red Sox series with Wright, Floyd, Nady, and Delgado. Details.

One could argue that the Red Sox home-field advantage is exaggerated against NL teams that are not used to playing in such a ridiculous, albeit historic, ballpark. The Sox are 11 – 1 against NL teams at home in the last two years. Interestingly, the NL team with the best record in interleague play this year is the Colorado Rockies, which also plays in a ridiculous place.

Amazingly, the combined home record of the four AL juggernauts is 116 - 48 for an absurd 0.707 winning percentage. But in a World Series, these teams will also have to play games on the road where they are a combined 100 – 84, or 0.543, which is still very good, but not dominating. More than likely one of these teams will face the Mets in the World Series. The Mets are 27 – 18 at home and 26 – 18 on the road.

How about the other three AL juggernauts? Each came from the AL Central. Is anyone surprised that the AL Central dominated the NL Central this year? The NL Central is the only division in baseball that has two sub-0.400 teams. The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates have to be the two worst teams in baseball. It is simply luck that the two best teams in baseball play in the AL Central this year and that they got to play the two worst teams in baseball in interleague play.

On average, the AL might be better than the NL this year, but it is impossible to conclude that the AL is significantly better than the NL. And, the NL might still have the best team. One has to pay attention to the details.

Big Games in the Regular Season

2006-06-30T13:31:00.000-04:00

Mike Francesca did his best to aggravate Mets fans yesterday after their second game against the Red Sox. He kept baiting them with lines like “they spit the bit.” He kept referring to the Mets-Red Sox series as a “big” series for the Mets; a “big” test. Of course he only said that after the Mets lost the first two. He said: “We went up there to broadcast as a sign of homage to the Mets, but they blew it.” All of this proves that Francesca knows little about baseball or the meaning of “big series.” Either that or he can’t see the truth through his Yankee-blue colored glasses.

A big series in the regular season is when you are playing a division rival and you are within a few games of each other. And, the closer it is to October, the bigger such a series becomes. The Yankees playing Boston right now would be a big series, for example. When the Mets played the Phillies a few weeks ago in Philadelphia, the Mets had a five or six game lead and had the opportunity to knock the Phillies out of the race in June with a sweep. THAT was a big series for the Mets. An inter-league game is only a big series to a team that still has to battle to make the playoffs.

Note to Francesca: The Mets lead in their division is greater than the leads of the other five division leaders COMBINED. After the Philly sweep, the Mets could look at their schedule and note that they had just played their last big series in the regular season. The Mets next big series will come in October. And, now that the Red Sox have a four-game lead on the Yankees, every series is a big one for the Yankees. Maybe that’s what Francesca meant to say. The Mets just buried his beloved Yankees.

The New Jersey Redskins

2006-06-16T15:16:00.000-04:00

I turned on the Mets new TV channel, SportsNet NY, this morning to watch highlights of the Mets game I attended in Philadelphia on Thursday. In addition to the Mets highlights, SNY had a piece on the quarterback competition in the Jets camp and an interview with a Giants player. Of course former Redskins were prominent in each piece: SNY interviewed Patrick Ramsey and Lavar Arrington.

I liked both players when they played for the Skins. I would love to see what Ramsey can do if he gets a chance to play, and play behind a line that will protect him. I think Jets fans are in for a positive surprise. The Jets got a first rounder for practically nothing.

I also wish Arrington well. He is a playmaker, if an undisciplined one, and I hope he plays very well against the Cowboys and Eagles this year (but very average against everyone else).

Carlos Beltran

2006-06-12T11:58:00.000-04:00

This is my first post since Art Monk was robbed of his enshrinement into the NFL's Hall of Fame. I have been too busy with work to post, but today I need to follow up on a post I made last August.

I say I need to follow up because my wife is sick of hearing me say this during Mets games:

Now they (Mets fans) love Carlos!!!

Maybe if I post it, it will reduce my urge to say it (and help my marriage) whenever I hear Mets fans cheer Carlos Beltran as if they loved him all along.

It is obvious why fickle Mets fans now love Carlos: He has the most home runs of any centerfielder in the major leagues this year and his defense has been nearly flawless. He's batting .297 (team rank: 2); with 17 HRs (2); 49 RBIs (1) and a .406 OBA (T1); a .631 slugging average (1-no one else is even close) and 1.037 OPS (1). He will be the starting centerfielder for the NL all stars this year.

Why is this issue important to me? As a Mets fan and former season ticket holder, I'm sick that great players do not want to play for the Mets unless the Mets give them over-the-top compensation. They have to go over the top because Mets fans can be the most unintelligent and unforgiving fans in baseball, as Beltran's experience here proves.

The list of excellent players that recently said they wouldn't play here is long. Delgado, another Mets fan favorite this year, screwed the Mets in negotiations last year and signed with Florida for much less than the Mets were willing to pay him. Beltran allegedly begged the Yankees to get to around 80% of the Mets offer so he could play in the Bronx. Griffey wanted no part of Mets fans. Glavine hoped the Braves would take him back.

When the Mets have to pay more to attract the same talent as other teams, they are at a tremendous disadvantage. All other things being equal, they will be less successful. And it is all due to their fans.

As I posted last August, Beltran deserved cheers for his willingness to sacrifice his statistics to play despite pain from several injuries. Mets fans should cheer Beltran the way Pedro Martinez did in Los Angeles last week when Beltran made an incredible diving catch to preserve a tie game. Beltran was in obvious pain after the play and took several minutes to get back on his feet, but he stayed in the game because the Mets had lost Cliff Floyd earlier in the game due to a twisted ankle and Jose Reyes due to a sprained wrist. By all rights, Beltran should have left the game; Pedro knew it and stood on the mound and applauded Beltran. I hope Mets fans take their cue from Pedro, not just for Beltran but for all of the players who bust it to win, even when it doesn't show up in their statistics.